AceTraderFx Jan 04 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2242
The single currency’s selloff from last Wednesday’s fresh 33-month peak at 1.2309 to 1.2210 Thursday suggests Medium Term upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.2195, then 1.2160/65, however, support at 1.2131 should remain intact and yield a much-needed rebound later.
On the upside, only above 1.2275 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended and risk stronger gain to 1.2300/05 would be seen but 1.2309 may hold on 1st testing.
There is a slew of manufacturing PMIs to be released from the eurozone today.
Pay particular attention to Germany’s at 08:55GMT and EU’s at 09:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 05 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2256
Despite euro’s re-test of last Wednesday’s fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2309 in New York yesterday, subsequent sharp retreat suggests Medium Term upmove is not ready to resume yet and choppy trading below there would continue with mild downside bias, however, last Thursday’s reaction low at 1.2210 should remain intact and yield another rebound later.
On the upside, only above 1.2309 would revive bullishness for one more rise to 1.2334/40, then 1.2355/60 before prospect of a much-needed correction.
Pay attention to the release of Germany unemployment change and unemployment data at 08:55GMT. Street forecasts are 10k and 6.1% vs previous readings of -39k and 6.1% respectively.
AceTraderFx Jan 06 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2296
Despite euro’s re-test of last Wednesday’s fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2309 in New York on Monday, subsequent sharp retreat to 1.2242 suggests Medium Term upmove is not ready to resume yet and choppy trading below there would continue with mild downside bias, however, last Thursday’s reaction low at 1.2210 should remain intact and yield another rebound later.
On the upside, only above 1.2309 would revive bullishness for one more rise to 1.2334/40, then 1.2355/60 before prospect of a much-needed correction.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Japan Jibun Bank services PMI, consumer confidence, China Caixin services PMI.
UK BRC shop price index, Markit services PMI, France consumer confidence, CPI (EU norm), CPI, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, CPI, HICP, EU Markit services PMI, producer prices.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, ADP national employment, Markit services PMI, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transportation.
AceTraderFx Jan 07 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2331
Despite euro’s selloff from yesterday’s fresh 32-month peak at 1.2349 to 1.2267, subsequent strong rebound in late New York on usd’s weakness due to political turmoil in Washington suggests the pullback has ended and Medium Term upmove would resume after consolidation and above 1.2349 would extend marginally, however, 1.2368/70 may limit upside due to loss of momentum and yield correction.
On the downside, only below 1.2267 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement to 1.2254, then 1.2242 but support at 1.2210 should hold.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia building permits, trade balance, imports, exports.
Germany industrial orders, Swiss retail sales, UK Markit construction PMI, Italy CPI, CPI (EU norm), EU HICP, core HICP, retail sales, business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports, Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Jan 08 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Jan 2021 02:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2257
The single currency’s selloff from 1.2345 to as low as 1.2246 yesterday suggests Medium Term upmove has made a temporary top at Wednesday’s 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2349 and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.2210, however, 1.2180/90 should remain intact due to near term loss of momentum and yield a much-needed rebound later.
On the upside, only above 1.2309 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk gain to 1.2325, then 1.2349 early next week.
Data to be released on Friday :
Japan all household spending, coincident index, leading economic index.
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany industrial output, exports, imports, trade balance, current account, France consumer spending, current account, industrial output, trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house prices, Italy unemployment rate, EU unemployment rate.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate
AceTraderFx Jan 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2200
Friday’s break of previous 1.2210 sup to 1.2193 in post-NFP New York trading confirms recent uptrend has made a temporary top at Wednesday’s fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2349 and stronger correction twd 1.2153 is envisaged after consolidation.
On the upside, only above 1.2284 (NY high) signals pullback has possibly ended and yields stronger gain to 1.2309 later this week.
Data to be released today:
Japan market holiday, Australia retail sales, China PPI, CPI, EU Sentix index, and UK NIESR GDP estimate on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jan 12 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2161
The single currency’s fall below Friday’s low at 1.2193 to 1.2133 yesterday on usd’s broad-based strength suggests decline from last Wednesday’s fresh near 33-month peak at 1.2349 remains in progress and further weakness to 1.2106/10 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond and yield a much-needed correction.
On the upside, only above 1.2200 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.2225/30.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Japan current account, trade balance, Economy Watchers current, Economy Watchers outlook.
UK BRC retail sales, Italy retail sales.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings.
AceTraderFx Jan 13 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2217
Despite the single currency’s fall to 1.2133 on Monday, subsequent rally to 1.2216 today suggests the first leg of correction from January’s 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2349 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.2226/30, however, resistance at 1.2241/46 would remain intact and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 1.2178 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk weakness to 1.2133/38.
Pay attention to the release of EU industrial production mm and yy at 10:00GMT. Street forecasts are 0.2% and -3.3% vs previous readings of 2.1% and -3.8% respectively.
Elsewhere, ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak at the Reuters Next summit at 09:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 14 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2169
The single currency’s sharp retreat from 1.2222 to 1.2140 yesterday on ECB Villeroy’s negative euro comments suggests recovery from Monday’s low at 1.2133 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend decline from January’s 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2349 to 1.2106 before prospect of a much-needed correction.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2222 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.2270/80.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Japan corporate goods price index, machinery orders.
UK RICS housing price balance, China exports, imports, trade balance, Germany full year GDP.
U.S. import price index, export price index, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims.
AceTraderFx Jan 15 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2152
Despite the single currency’s resumption of decline from January’s 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2349 to 1.2112 yesterday, subsequent rally to 1.2178 in New York on dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggests a temporary low has possibly been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.2203/05, however, resistance at 1.2222 should remain intact.
On the downside, only below 1.2133 would revive bearishness for a re-test of 1.2112, break would risk one more fall to 1.2090/95 before prospect of correction.
Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand food price index, China house prices, Japan tertiary industry activity index, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance.
France budget balance, CPI, CPI (EU norm), EU trade balance.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, PPI, core PPI, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Jan 19 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2074
Euro’s resumption of recent decline from Jan’s near 33-month peak of 1.2349 to a 1-month 1.2075 low Friday, then intra-day brief break there suggests downside bias remains for further weakness after consolidation, however, near term oversold condition should keep price above 1.2011 today.
On the upside, only above 1.2133 signals temporary low is made and may risk stronger recovery towards 1.2178 before prospect of another fall later this week.
Eco. data from euro area countries is very light with Iatlay’s CPI being only data due out at 09:00GMT. There is a Eurogroup meeting at 10:00GMT where ECB President Lagarde and ECB executive board member Panetta will participate.
Later, there is EU FinMin meeting n release of Buba monthly report.
AceTraderFx Jan 19 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2088
Despite euro’s resumption of recent decline to a 6-week trough of 1.2055 in European morning on Monday, subsequent rebound suggests temporary low is made and range trading is in store initially before prospect of another fall, however, loss of downward momentum is likely to keep price above 1.2011 (2020 high, now sup).
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2112 would risk stronger correction but reckon 1.2178 res should cap upside.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand NZIER confidence, retail sales, GDT price index.
Germany CPI, HICP, ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, Swiss producer and import price index, Italy trade balance, EU current account, construction output, ZEW survey expectation, UK labour productivity, and Canada manufacturing sales, wholesale trade.
AceTraderFx Jan 20 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2142
Yesterday’s rally to 1.2144 (New York) due to renewed risk-on sentiment confirms euro’s recent decline from January’s near 33-month peak at 1.2349 has made a temporary low at Monday’s 6-week trough at 1.2055, near term overbought condition is likely to limit gain to 1.2175/78 and yield retreat later today.
On the downside, a daily close below New York low at 1.2116 would be 1st signal recovery has ended, then weakness to 1.2086 and re-test of 1.2055 would follow.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia consumer sentiment.
Germany producer prices, UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output prices, DCLG house price index, EU HICP, core HICP.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, redbook, NAHB housing index, and Canada CPI, core CPI, Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx Jan 21 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2127
Despite yesterday’s decline from 1.2157 (Europe) to as low as 1.2077 in New York, euro’s intra-day rebound in Asia due to renewed risk sentiment suggests further choppy swings above Mon’s 6-week trough at 1.2055 would continue ahead of key ECB’s monetary policy announcement and then post-ECB presser.
As long as 1.2157 holds, downside bias remains, below 1.2077 would yield re-test of 1.2055 but loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.2011.
A break above 1.2157 would risk stronger retracement of recent fall from Jan’s 1.2349 peak to 1.2178 and possibly towards 1.2222 next week.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Bank of Japan interest rate decision, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, France business climat.
Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, UK CBI trends orders, EU ECB refinancing rate, ECB deposit rate, consumer confidence.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and Canada ADP employment change, new housing price index.
AceTraderFx Jan 22 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2167
Euro’s break of Wed’s 1.2157 high to 1.2173 in post-ECB New York morning yesterday suggests recent decline from January’s near 33-month peak at 1.2349 has made a low earlier at Monday’s 6-week trough of 1.2055 and stronger retracement towards 1.2222 objective is envisaged before retreat due to loss of upward momentum.
On the downside, a daily close below New York low at 1.2137 would be the 1st signal correction has ended, then risk would shift to the downside for weakness to 1.2116, then towards 1.2077 on Monday.
Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, CPI, Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, retail sales, Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI, Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI.
UK Gfk consumer confidence, PSNB, PSNCR, retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
Canada retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, existing home sales.
AceTraderFx Jan 25 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2172
Euro’s 3-legged rise from last Monday’s 6-week trough at 1.2055 to as high as 1.2190 Fri suggests recent decline from January’s 1.2349 peak has made a temporary low and marginal gain is envisaged, however, loss of upward momentum would cap price below res at 1.2222.
A daily close below 1.2152 (Fri low) would be the 1st signal correction has ended, then outlook would turn bearish for weakness towards 1.2077 later.
Data to be released today:
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, EU business sentiment, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. national activity index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jan 26 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2136
Euro’s decline from 1.2183 to 1.2117 on weak German Ifo data yesterday suggests early correction from last Monday’s 6-week bottom at 1.2055 has possibly ended at 1.2190 (Friday), a daily close below 1.2117 would add credence to this view and head back to 1.2077, then re-test of 1.2055 later this week.
On the upside, only above 1.2190 risks stronger retracement towards 1.2222 before prospect of decline due to loss of upward momentum.
After Monday’s market-moving Ifo data, no eco. indicators are due out from the euro area countries today, traders will have to take cue from movements in Asian n European stocks plus U.S. stocks.
We have a number of ECB members scheduled to speak during the day, please refer to EI page for details.
AceTraderFx Jan 27 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2163
Euro’s intra-day rally on Tuesday from 1.2108 to 1.2175 due to renewed usd’s weakness on return of risk appetite suggests choppy trading above last Mon’s 6-week trough at 1.2055 would continue with upside bias, above 1.2190 (Friday’s high) would bring stronger retracement of early decline from January’s near 33-month peak at 1.2349 to 1.2222 but reckon 1.2284 should remain intact.
On the downside, below 1.2108 anytime signals correction has ended, then weakness to 1.2077 would be seen next.
On the data front, we have German Gfk consumer confidence, then France’s consumer confidence n Italy’s trade balance. ECB’s chief economist will speak at conference at 15:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 28 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2097
Euro’s intra-day selloff from 1.2169 (Asia) to as low as 1.2058 on ECB Knot’s euro-bearish comments suggests early correction fm last Mon’s 6-week trough at 1.2055 has ended at 1.2190 (Fri) and as price has fallen in post-FOMC New York, bearishness remains and below 1.2055 would extend recent decline from Jan’s near 33-month peak at 1.2349 twd 1.2011.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2128 ‘prolongs’ volatile swings above 1.2055 and may risk another rise twd 1.2190.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (pls refer to EI page for details).
AceTraderFx Jan 29 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Jan 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2110
Although euro’s erratic rise from this week’s low at 1.2058 (Wednesday) to 1.2141 in New York morning yesterday due to rally in U.S. stocks following downbeat U.S. data suggests further volatile swings above last week’s trough at 1.2055 would continue, intraday retreat in tandem with U.S. stock futures would bring range trading.
Below Thursday’s 1.2080 low would yield re-test of 1.2055, break there extend recent fall from Jauarty’s 1.2349 peak towards 1.2011 whilst above 1.2141 may head back towards 1.2175 but 1.2190 res should cap upside.
U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to weekly jobless claims and continued jobless claims to get the feel of the latest condition of the labour market.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major