Ya know, after I thought about it I decided to hold off on the trailing stops test till next week. Fridays [I]are[/I] sketchy and I don’t want to try TSs on several pairs, have them fail, and feel like I didn’t give the TS a fair shake.
Next week.
Hello TalonD,
Looking for the Holy Grail I see. This is one that everybody has tried a time or two and I’m reviewing this now as well with some success. I just noticed this thread so thought I’d stop in and say hello and give my two cents.
As I see it the pot of gold that exists in the daily is not found in one big nugget but a lot of little nuggets. Any attempt to find the daily high or daily low just keeps changing as the day continues. You may get one or the other at the beginning of the session and as time goes on the price hits the other side of the LRC or the Bols channel and there is your first nugget. The price does this all night sometimes but usually not in huge moves.
Then there is always the midnight reversal and then the counter move before the London Open and next the reversal to the true trend. After picking up all these nuggets you will find your pip count is greater then the average High to Low of the daily and the funny thing is the best price movement is still to come in the morning.
Who wants to stay up all night and then all day right? Since we can’t be up 24 hours a day then lets at least be up for the majority of the pip count which is between 2:00 am and 9:00 am EST. Maybe we can all just move to England or Europe which might be our only choice the way things are going here.
I really haven’t read much of this thread but believe I’m a little closer on some things which is still along ways from the answer. I’ve identified where the high and low will appear tomorrow a good percent of the time.
Look at the attached charts. Notice at the bottom the Yellow “TARGET” with the yellow arrow. These were actually made before the target candlestick appeared and then the chart was saved. Since that time the other bars have appeared but just look at the target bar. The object of all of this was to find how much of the bar would appear within the channel. Once the initial price appeared then an adjustment of the channel can be made. The adjustment is the “PLUS” charts like the “TWO DAY PLUS VISION”. As the price action continues it becomes evident where the highest highs and the lowest lows will appear.
The LRC begins at the bottom pivot and is set at the standard value of two deviations. This value is adjusted as needed to include whatever past highs and lows you wish to include. I set the based on value to (High + Low)/2 and once the direction is known by the initial price action I change it to High or Low. You can see the initial line on the “PLUS” chart to see the difference of the channel.
The red and green balls above each candlestick depict a down or an up candle and shows up on the first tic of the price action. The color changes as the price action moves up or down. If the price breaks through the previous high it stays green and if the price break through the previous low it stays red. At no time is the formula Close > Open for green or Close < Open for red. The color is only based on the previous candlestick and the current price. The color is determined fairly quickly as was my intent to see if the color would be true. You can judge this for yourself.
Good Luck,
Johnny
So much for a 30 pip trailing stop. Would have got my usual 20 but just ended up with about 6. :rolleyes:
JohnnyB, getting up at 2am, I’ve tried but so far havn’t been able to force myself to do it. 
That’s why I’m still using pending orders.
boll bounces, and the fakeout breakout as I call it. It’s hard to handle those with pending orders.
The base concept of this thread is the simple observation that most candles are offset from the previous candle. extending either above the high or below the low of the previous candle. And on daily candles even a small extension can be 20 or 30 pips. a larger move can be 100 pips.
There’s another simple observation. a lot of candles extend through the mid point of the previous candle…
wow, lost alot today lol. still up more then i lost overall though lol. two false breakouts, what a shame
Hello Again Mike,
Here is a better look at the Hi-Lo Dots at the top of each candlestick(see attached charts). Sometimes at the beginning both a green and a red appear and when it final goes to one color then that is the true color.
Johnny
what about just using closing prices to determine the previous day HiLo?
I just look at a 1hour chart to pick out the high and low. Only tricky bit is when the high or low occurs near the end of the day. End of NY 17:00 est going into the Asian session up to midnight EST
speaking of that, there was a video showing london breakout I’d like to watch again. cant remember where it was though. He recomended only going for the breakout if close and asian was near the high or low not when it was in the middle. Shr1k or Merch was it you posted that in mmtt?
Here’s an idea I had on Friday: how about being more selective about the number of pairs - avoiding a lot of correlation - but placing two types of trades for each hi-lo set, a conventional 80% 20-pip trade along with a separate trailing stop trade? We’d know that we get the smaller pip trade most of the time and the trailing would be nice to leave open for those larger moves.
Not a bad idea. Maybe the equivalent would be to close half your trade at 20pips profit then move a trailing stop to break even for the remaining half. Someone mentioned that back a ways, Dale I think? But I’d have to be awake for it. By placing two trades as you say, then it could still be pending orders and I could still get my beauty sleep, Lord knows I need LOTs of that!
lol
I think that video might have been posted on the bollinger chat room that San Migul had for a short time. Someone there posted a link to a site that had a few good videos I have not been able to find that site again. If anyone knows what I am talking about can you point me in the right direction.
Mike did you ever get that trade manager EA off of IBFX’s website? I’ve been using that to manage my trades. Works pretty well, allows for 4 different TP levels and each one has the option of moving the SL so lets say your TP of +20 was hit it could change the SL to 0 or +1 or whatever you choose, or it could not change it at all until your next TP was hit. For GBP/JPY I have a 25 50 75 and 100 TP, the 25 doesnt change the SL at all, the 50 moves it to +2 the 75 moves it to +30. Seems to work pretty well.
I looked at IBFX website at some of those metatrader things they have available but I’m still doing my live trading on Oanda. I may try some of that on my IBFX demo acct. may end up switching over my live account one of these days.
I don’t think I’m going to set up trades on GU for Monday morning / Sunday evening. Price is too close to Friday’s close, it wouldn’t have to move very far to trigger a sell and I don’t think that would represent the momentum that would produce pips. I think it would be more of a random fluctuation. I’m thinking that in order to trade a break of the previous day candle I would like to see more of a wick both on top and on bottom of yesterday’s candle.
Hello hellogoodbye4201,
That sounds interesting. Could you post it?
Thanks,
Johnny
well in hindsight I should have set up my orders last night. should have stuck to the plan rather than second guess! Would have made my 20 pips and got me one day closer to my million 
So this is where your all at these days… it took me most of yesterday just to read this thread through!
Mike as you know I am trading the reverse of hi/ lo… from the outer to inner. On my daily I have a 2:1 boll and a high/ low 2 LWMA… no suprises there. 
I initaite my trades when PA steps outside of the 2:1 and 2 high/ low back towards the centre. However I have noticed a fairly reliable pattern that might be of assistance here?
For the purpose of explanation assume if you will the followinging. The center line on the daily 2:1 boll is nuetral and the upper/ lower band (1 std dev) the average of price movement on any given day. Ok I have noticed that when the upper/ lower 2:1 boll band reaches a horizontal plain PA will usually have reached enough momentum to push on up or down to the outer 2 LWMA high/ low.
You will notice that the horizontal high/ low 2:1 boll band corespondes with the solid candle body of the previous days candle. So might it not be an idea to take the high/ low of the solid candle body as your trade start point and close the trade at the high/ low 2 LWMA?
Just an idea but looking back on my two preferred currency crosses EU & GU there does seem a strong correlation. I even have a GU trade in progress following this pattern. 
Your methods have always confused me R Carter, but I will try this and see what I can do with it.
Whats to confuse? I was simply suggesting that it might be advantageous to take the hi/ low trade at the previous days solid candle top/ bottom rather than the total days hi/ low (incuding wick) and close the trade at the high/ low 2 LWMA. Thought I had explained it reasonably well.
I mean, the way you trade confuses me. I understand what you are saying relating to this thread but the when PA steps outside the 2:1 boll and the LWMAs and etc. That’s what confuses me lol.
Robert, it’s good to see you here. Welcome! That may be a good idea trading from the solid candle body. I’ve also thought about trading as price crosses previous days center line.
There’s more than one way to skin a currency pair! I’ll be looking at this more tonight after work.