EURUSD Analysis (ongoing)

EURUSD has been heading towards the North in the daily chart. However, there is a bearish trendline, which has been obeyed by the price several times. Thus, unless that gets breached, I would look to go short in the pair.

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EURUSD - 25/10/2021 - Initially last week long trades were the winners but we’re now stuck in a range with a week dollar.

1.166 top and 1.162 bottom defines the range and long term I’m looking for a breakout towards the downside.

This week will be a ECB meeting with Lagarde unlikely to say anything in support of a stronger EUR.

We’re also seeing the energy crisis begin to hit Europe which will dampen economic recovery.

All in all can see l a less positive case for the EUR leading me to aim for the shorts this week.

Do you see more upside for EURUSD or feel the negative news from Europe will weigh on the pair? :slight_smile:

#financiallyfreetrader

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Looking to short from this level, ideal play would be for it to pop a little higher and tag the 50EMA on the daily chart and then drop.

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EURUSD - 08/11/2021 - We look on our way to 1.15 as NFP calls 531k showing improvement in the labour market for FOMC and tapering to begin at the end of this month.

ECB’s dovishness has me bearish long term and can see us testing the 1.16 level before coming down to 1.15.

Reasons to be bearish:

  • ECB President Lagarde stresses again that Eurozone interest rates will not be increased any time soon.
  • EUR/USD has been moving closer to the historic 2021-low.
  • 1.1500 aligns as the next target on the downside.
  • As we come into winter the energy crisis may start to bite in Europe as well a seasonal spread of covid maybe?
  • EUR economic data appears soft.

All in all I can see us moving up to 1.16 level to test short term but can see the EUR start to see the squeeze of winter.

#financiallyfreetrader

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EURUSD is sitting on a nice daily/weekly support at 1.5500 for me, looking for a pullback and then a strong break through this level to confirm the bearish sentiment will continue.

Looking for a reaction here. If it carries on down then we are looking around 1.104 in my opinion

this pair caught a lot out last Friday with another huge push down coming all the way to 1.12500 we have to see this continue to fall unless we break structure on a huge scale as the EUR seems to be falling hard across most currency’s.

The pair looks very bearish to me. After making a solid bearish move in the Daily chart, it had a pullback. It found its resistance at 1.13725 and produced bearish engulfing candle. Consequently, the price has been bearish today as well. I assume the sellers may drive the price towards 1.11000 with good bearish momentum.

i am betting heavy on this bear move.

Any updates on this one bud ? The price has been going down quite a lot was shorting it last week, made some nice profits of off it.

EURUSD - 29/11/2021 - Looking at further downward momentum long term as covid lockdowns hit EUR.

I’m eying the 1.116-1.12 support of 2020 for our next target on long term with maybe a push further up to 1.14 in the short term.

Technically I’m going to be watching how the pair reacts to the long term lower trend line that was pushed through on the 15th for confirmation.

On a bullish note, Scotiabank economists have noted that December seasonal trends are usually bullish for EURUSD and that highs of 1.13-1.14 are possible as the pair appears oversold and historical data suggests strong month for euro.

I’d say that’s pretty accurate and that would not affect the overall downtrend.

Overall I’m bearish long term with ECB lagging behind in monetary policy and bullish as we recover from oversold conditions.

How do you guys feel? More downtrend to come or are we oversold?

#financiallyfreetrader

Can`t wait for the break out.

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Can see it tapping that overhead Supply zone and heading down to 1.100 and evaluate from there

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EURUSD - 06/12/2021 - We just missed 1.14 that I called last week but overall bullish start to the week was good for gains.

Feels like the chips are stacking up against EUR at the moment with New covid variant fears, Low immunisation uptake and ECB inaction on monetary policy leading the way to macro lower trend.

USD looks much stronger with last weeks lower than expected NFP not touching the pair, DXY looking strong and tapering looking to be sped up this week all making me feel bearish.

We’re currently in consolidation after testing the 1.138 res.

The hit to 1.138 was exactly at the previous lower down trend line which is showing us that this is most likely our new upper support trend line.

Decent place to sell from and I’ll be eying up 1.12 tp with a break above the new upper trend line giving me pause for thought.

Two things to watch out for this week - FED meeting on speeding up tapering and ECB meeting on monetary policy.

How you guys feeling after seeing new res being put in?

#financiallyfreetrader

Lovely chanels marked up, would agree this pair is still bearish for me, and possibly much lower thatn the 1.12 area. Cant see EUR finding any strength in the near future.

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The Omicron fears was useless and the results are fact.

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EURUSD - 13/12/2021 - Missed my target of 1.12 on the sells but still looking like solid downward momentum after hitting the new upper trend line at 1.135.

Anyone who saw the retest should have had a nice little scalp.

Still the same story as last week really:

  • covid surge in Europe bringing lockdowns for Christmas.
  • FED and BOE looking at policy tightening as ECB wants to ride out inflation.
  • Russian troops at Ukrainian border.
  • Nord Stream looking to be scrapped thus raising questions about Europe’s energy security.

Moving forward I’ll be watching the central banks monitory policy meeting on Wednesday with ECB meetings on Thursday being another one to gauge the markets.

All in all I’ll probably be going off the technicals and looking for sells with a 1.18 goal.

If we test the uptrend line again and we break through will have to reassess and wait for res to be found.

How you guys feeling about the new upper trend line? Anyone got any bullish ideas? :slight_smile:

Seems to be bullish again but today. I’m banking on it rising until Thursday when the news may stall it.

10/01/2022 - EURUSD weekly analysis.

Well here we are crabbing it slightly to the upside.

Technically we look like we may be gearing up for a break down from a wedge pattern with 1.135-1.136 being strong res.

I can’t see us breaking this week but sells from the said res may be profitable and setup for a break out to the lower side.

On the fundamental front:

  • FED looking to tighten tapering due to inflation.
  • ECB being conservative on monetary policy even though rising inflation.
  • Covid continues to slow down economic recovery.

If we were to think bullish we would have to see the 1.136 res broken and settled above for me to buy but with how nonplussed markets were on the low NFP data I can see a continuation to the downside for now.

How do you guys think this is playing out? Any reasons to be bullish?

my sister just made me sell, i hope it is going down. my broker says i have no more margin. am i pointing in the right direction?