Yup. Barely there 
Funny how that works innit?
Hey Carter, nice to see you, too! 
Yeah I was busy with vacation, lol. 3 months is long enough now I guess. So I am back to my hobbies and bots, lol. However, I didnāt fly (for myself). I hope I will have time and energy next year then for more flying. Right now I am developing an aviation app for android. That takes some time. If that stays within timeline and my bots work like they worked in the past, then I will hopefully have a free mind for flying next year.
What you say about communication is exactly right. Flying is a precise business. Flying has a lot of other things in common with trading as well. Like you have to get your own decisions, planning, etc. etc.
Plus I agree with TalonD (nice to see you around). On the Monthly it is hard to see this small dip, lol.
well speaking of imperceptiple news blips, what happend to NFP ? It didnāt cause much movement.
We got the twinsā¦ Maybe triplets?
And now a big 'ole bear is hugging that last weekās bull.
Not to mention the rumors floating around of Greece bailing on the EZ.
They say they arenāt, but where thereās smoke there is usually fire.
Interesting developments coming, thatās for sure.
Uhm, I see the Greece thing positive for the euro. Because if Greece leaves the euro, the euro would not be destabilized by this debt country. Plus thatās what the price chart at Friday says. When the rumor came out that Greece is leaving, the euro went a little up not down. That was at the time the nfp news came out. Then, when they denied it, the euro started dropping. Another buy the rumor, sell the news thing.
However, I see still more buying opportunity. Just waiting now for a bottom, lol. Plus it can take some time. The euro jumped from 128 to 149 in just 4 months. A mere 2100 pips. This setback is very healthy! I say the euro is just tanking to get more power to jump over the 150. I see price opportunities well beyond that, if the ECB increases rates. Right now there is no change to the 1% more than usd and that fires also the carry trade opportunities. Even more, if the rate goes higher against the usd.
The only issue I have with my opinion is that I donāt know how far the euro might drop temporary now until it will climb again.
Itās not how far the euro will drop, itās how far the dollar will climb.
The end of QE will likely bring about a large scale selloff of margined positions in the US equities market. That will be an en masse accumulation of dollars.
Where the exchange rate is when that happens, matters not.
Nor will bulls or bears in spot forex.
Youāre already seeing it in the commodities.
Needless to say, interesting times ahead.
As for Greece leaving, it may at first appear a good thing, but I donāt think it would play out that way.
Iceland chose to let their banks default altogether, and start over.
If Greece left, and pulled the same stunt, whoās to say Ireland, and Portugal wouldnāt do the same?
Well, we are almost on the same page with the dollar. Though, I see this more as a risk appetite or risk aversion thing. So, if ppl take money out of the markets, it mostly flows into dollar. In your part of the world. If ppl in Europe sell things, it flows partly into euro. Not all of it, as some accounts still are dollar accounts.
If Ireland and Portugal would leave the euro zone this would be even better! We are speaking about long term monthly moves right? Not anouncements. If all of the pigs would leave the euro, it would give the euro more value, because there would be less debt behind it. Very easy. Anyways, be sure they wonāt leave. They are not that stupid. They profit from the money what the other countries pay for them like all the bailouts. That Greece would leave on its own decision is a joke. Whoever sold or bought a microlot based on that joke has my pity, lol. Another thing is if Greece would default. If it would default, that would rise some turbulences, because it is uncertain how it would be after the default and how they would do it.
Anyways. As I said, Greece is old news. All that pig stuff is old news. You canāt expect that every year the euro drops 3000 pips just anybody uses the word Greece in his news. Thatās not going to happen.
And then, if I look at the debt in the US, even if QE2 is over and QE3 is not coming, you still have very low interest rates, superiour high debt and a high unemployment rate. The reason for the upmove from around 140 to 149 was the rising of those rate in Europe. We can expect that the rate will climb more. If I read all ads from banks right, they now make propaganda for credit contracts with fixed interest. This is a very safe sign that they expect the rates to rise. If not, then they would more offer variable contracts. With the fixed contracts they wanna sell low interest contracts to profit later if the rate increases. Some things never change. Itās the same as in the past.
Iām still no friend of the euro, but if I analyze the markets, my fundamental view of that currency doesnāt matter in the medium term. Possible that in 2 years then the euro will drop until parity, but not now. The chance was there last year, and it didnāt drop that far. With rising interest rates where should come the big drop from? Europe is not well known for major earthquakes, tsunamis, etc. etc.
One last thing is that if you look at the dow and other indices, that the drop of Thursday was temporary. Friday they turned back to the upside. That means, the risk appetite is still there. Even au is back to almost 1500.
At least look at the other pairs of the dollar. usdchf is at 0.88, usdjpy at 80 around. Those prices are historically very low and it shows to me that the dollar is losing ground. No matter which currency you compare it to. We are a little in a time like in the eighties of last year. Everything rises against the dollar and that will continue in the medium therm until the US government has an answer to the huge debt problem they have. Right now they like to inflate, because that devalues the dollar. And thatās the used to be technique for governments to decrease their debt. Iām not saying the Euro has no problems. The proplem is a similar one. Anyways, the euro is a very fresh currency and many of the inflation problems are already āsolvedā, because the euro inflated already. Though, most of the people canāt calculate it and donāt know whatās going on. This leaves more space for the government now to increase the interest rates.
At very least, look at your own country and the new generation. They are not aware what is going on. They voted for a plush teddy president and the plush teddy president will do nothing to solve the problem. In fact, he is a socialist and socialists can only rise problems and not solve problems. More government, more government insurance and all that is a sure path to more problems.
So to sum up all that, there will probably not be a fundamental change in the current medium term trends (1-2 years). Lets look if the government after the next election changes, if that brings something new onto the table. Or if a country in Europe defaults. Until then you for sure will have ups and downs, but I do not consider major moves with several thousands of pips against the current trend to happen.
Iām not thinking it would be a good thing for Greece to leave the EU. If they were solvent, it would be a different story. They would have some options. But right now, they are living on borrowed EU money, and itās only getting worse.
Hereās a really good article on the situation.
Just trade the technicals guyās the āfundiesā will express themselves in due course through the chartsā¦ youāll get grey hair and a haggerd expression in no time contemplating this stuff! :13:
get grey hair?.. you mean more of it? No thanks I have enough already.
No grey hair yet Mikeā¦ but short in the folical department! Lifes cruelā¦ then you think, āI knowā¦ lets take up FX tradingā LOL!!!
Oh you bet I do:D
The political, and fundamental side is more just a hobby.
I used to brag that Iād rather have it turn grey than turn loose but now itās doing both !:o
Are you still doing the weekly thing RC ? Lately Iāve been dropping back down to lower time frames a la Matt Strat.
Same here, lol. Itās fun to combine some logics.
However, technically if you look at the charts, eurusd is still bullish on weekly and monthly. Daily turned bearish. H1 and below is just noise, lol. This signal from my bot is also still valid. And thatās the reason I am still buying.
I think also that Greece would have the issues if they leave. That however wouldnāt bring the euro down then, because they would have their own currency then. Greece is just a very expensive debtor for the euro. Like all the other pigs. When Greece joined the euro, the euro had already a very high value. So, itās not Greece who delivers any value to the euro. Itās exactly the opposite.
Anyways, Greece is a very small country. Not really a big deal. No matter if they leave or stay.
Okay, it looks like this rock targeted the ema 50 daily and is swimming now aboard a wave of risk appetite.
Looks like a flag to me. But Iāve banked pips both ways over the last couple day.
The goal for me, is to not try to read to much of anything into it long term.
I donāt gots no fancy bots 
Lol, I am out now of this falling knive. Before it would become too risky. I thought this a little long hammer and dojo on the daily would hold, but I was wrong. Back to my bots. One made another profit today. :30:
But they are not fancy. They work silent and invisible in the underground, lol. Even at night when I sleep.
Not me I was looking to the dailyā¦ no sign of a committed bounce there. Was short from the second HA bear candle on the hourly right up to 17:00 London close on both EU & EJ.
So you made also a profit? Congrats! My bot was also going short today, lol.
I made also some profit with my other microlot trades, but the loss is larger. Not a big deal anyways. I will stop now (what I thought was) bottom picking, lol. :18:
Yes I think thats fair to say. What bottom did you have in mind??? LOL!!!