I’m not a fundamental analyst so can’t comment on Greece and its impact on the Euro. But the ‘techs’ are marginally bullish on the daily TF at present and thus I’m long off the daily open looking for a TP of around 1.4318 - 14338. Don’t see it going much higher than that before a correction.
Personally, I would be wary of taking any medium-longer term trades on EUR/USD right now - too much uncertainty, as you say, and there is certainly a sense of the pair ‘waiting’ - but there are certainly shorter-term opportunities. I don’t know your trading style, but for instance there has been a small uptrend on the pair on the Hourly chart (and, obviosuly, the lower timeframes, depending on how you trade), which it has been quite nice to trade. I took some decent pips this morning entering during the 0900/1000 Hourly bar (GMT), and some pips yesterday lunchtime doing the same thing. About 4% this week on the pair. So for what it is worth, I would stick to intraday on this pair and it is fine, anything else I would say is too risky for me right now.
I am not a fundamental trader (other than avoiding major news releases!), I am more technical, but I am basically bullish intraday, buying each retracement, and it is working well. Basically, I just trade the chart, then when the chart tells me something new (which it might well do on the back of major news such as any Greece announcement) I will adjust my premise and trade that.
Even when a pair is ranging, I tend to trade it as a series of mini-trends in the direction of the preceding trend; that is what I am doing with EUR/USD at the moment.
Hope this gives you an insight into my take on it.
ST
There’s some divergence in EU and GU… they have to come together one way or another
-one way or another I’m gona getcha oops wrong song
-come together right now over me
there I like the Beatles better
Thanks for reply!Yes I think it too!
I am waiting the max high level, but i don’t known will it be 1.4318. IT is very dengerous situation now and that is why i want to close my position with “+” but when it was good case i was away. Now I am waiting one more growth ot it, I hope it will be. The report will be at 13.00 GMT I will try to be in time))
Yes for long time it is very nervouse trade today on this pair. When i opened it yesterday the situation was better then now, or may be it is just my panic))
Let 's see on results, time will show it us 
Now i am thinking that better was play on short positions, because it goes up and down every hour.
Don’t forget this thread’s title 'EUR/USD Monthly LOL! Now there are not many here on BP I suspect that trade the monthly TF! But I do almost exclusively trade Daily & Weekly, so this is about as good a thread as any for me to be on? LOL
On my set up I have a confirmed crossover on the daily TF (indicating a new trend) i.e. Long from 1.4184 which is where my SL currently is (probaby a little too close). IF it turns out to be ranging, I have a weekly range indicator of 1.4318 high and 1.4060 low.
Well, Mr. Carter is right. We are speaking about long term. First things first: Greece and all that stuff might linger. But: This is NOT in any case the key reason for this drop of the last 2 weeks. Because not just the eur plunged. Almost every currency and commodity against the usd plunged. This looks like “sell in May and go away”. So, it’s key reason is investors are cashing in some profits. The eur was bullish now since a long time. Running from a 118 low to a 149 high. 3000 pips! That baby cried for a bottle full of milk, lol. Then, Greece and all that is VERY OLD news. Nobody seriously investing money would give a penny to old news. That’s the same if I’d remind anybody that the US debt is not really low, lol. The pigs (Greece is just a very small economy) may play a role if German taxpayers would say NO! But I am born as German and I can tell you: Germans are so eager to rescue the world, they would even pay tax for the US if that would save them, lol. No, I am kidding a bit. But its alwasy somewhat serious if you tell a joke.
So, then we come to the technically outlook. Eur is still in a bullish trend. With a setback we have seen in the past two weeks. I do not know however, if that is already the return now to more bullish levels. Some investors which I’d call the weak hands are unsure what to do. That may change things in the short outlook. Anyways, we have a clear break on the daily of that last falling tl. So, even it’s short outlook is bullish. That’s why the good US news today didn’t give it a shot to drop far down. Now investors are eager about housing stats and if they show some negative things, I am pretty sure that could send the eur through the resistance at 143.
Fundamentally the situation is: The ECB rised the interest rate to 1 points above that of the FED. That’s the key reason what drove the eur to that 149 high. IF(!!!) the ECB will continue to give signals to rise that again and the FED give signals of doing it not in the short term, the old bullish reasons are still there.
Anyways, the eur is at a very high value right now. The daily 200 ema is at around 138. That’s also a key level. If price stays above, it is a sign of a bullish long term trend. If it drops seriously below, it would become bearish.
You see, it’s not that easy. I am still bullish (long term), because if I take it all together, we have more reasons for that than the opposite. Another thing is: The 149 makes no sense to me. 152, yes. 155, yes. 165, yes. 160, yes. But NOT 149. That thing climbed above every resistance with ease and then it went down not even testing once the 150? NA, come on, lol! 
Then at least I guess all those who write now they have seen a top of the euro this year are screaming to get proved wrong. There are still 7 months left. How can anybody be so ignorant to tell something about a top in May? Ha ha, they seems to have a glass bowl anywhere, lol.
Just to make it clear: I do NOT know if it climbs or drops. I just talked about my opinion. 
Oh, I know more. But I can’t write a book here, lol. Sorry for that!
Plus last night I made some nice pips going long. Surved the wave up on that bull pressure (bull wedge) and sold at 5 pips below the top.
I’m still lurking to get long at reasonable low prices.
Here’s an interesting take on the euro dating back to a year ago when it hit the 1.18 mark.
Read into it what you will.
My take is even IF it’s still in a longer term uptrend, there is a lot of room for correction all the way down to 1.35 or so before resuming.
But hey… I just trade the opportunities given daily.
And there are lots of them 
With QE2 next month ending and a fairly likely decent correction in equities going with that there’s a reasonable chance that the euro could head south quite a bit more. If that happens we won’t see the ECB running to hike rates much either. Then again crystal ball gazing trying to work out where a currency will be in 6 months time is a waste of time these days so I’ll just take my daily pips and run
Lol, I have the same lines. Plus some more. There is no IF. It IS still in an uptrend channel. This is a FACT. And YES, it can go down to the bottom tl. Plus it can even break that and turn into a further drop. I just do say I don’t believe that will happen with the information I have right [U]now[/U].
One key information is this: Draw a tl from the tops on the monthly. We are still above that tl and right now with all that pa it shows it isn’t dropping that easily below this tl. IF (not a fact, but an assumption!) this tl will hold, there is also room to the upside.
Plus if I remember, we had already a top at 143 or so back in November. The same guys calling for a new high for a very long time back then are popping up now. What did we see? Fact was: It did go higher than that 143, where we are sitting now. Shorties waiting for the resistance to hold and bulls waiting for it to break. That’s why we are now where we are.
My personal opinion VERY long term, maybe yearly chart or so, is that it will drop seriously later. Maybe beyond parity. Because I told so already: Calculate how far you can drive with an euro and with an usd. Even in the US the price for gas is up now, but it’s ridiculous cheap against Europe prices. And THAT gives you an ideo about the REAL values about those currencies very long term! Because, whatever price you take, there is oil and gas involved. Goods have to be carried to the store, airplanes use it, every car, manufacturing is driven by it and so the oil/gas is the blood in the of the economy. If you can calculate that right, then you know the fundamental long term value of the currency, inflation/deflation priced in.
It’s nice that ppl say they just speculate short term. I do it also. But this is a long term thread, lol. The longer you term is, the more fundamental economy facts play a role.
Okay, here we go. As I said, I also trade short term. I do however also invest long term since a few decades. That’s why I have money left to play with bots, lol. So, I do for instance NOT speak about an SL of 50 pips or something like that, lol. I speak about SL of 500 pips or so and a trade running several weeks or months if I speak about long term investments.
In the first screenshot you can clearly see the broken tl and that pa is hovering now above that tl. Please also take note of the trade arrows. Them are valid until another arrow shows the opposite. The second screenshot might give you an idea about the general scenario. Daily and monthly is bullish, weekly bearish. Monthly is overbought. Some RSIs of multi frame 3.
I have some more screens here with more lines, but that is enough for now I guess, lol.
By that logic the price of oil increasing should have had a negative effect on E/U over the long term given that a rising price should have been strangling more of the lifeblood of the EZ compared to the US. The US average price of oil (in $/bbl) went from $22.81 to $91.48 from Jan ‘02 to Apr’ 08. Similarly once the market correction throughout much of 2002 was over the Dow nearly doubled from approx 7500 to approx 14,000 and the S&P similarly doubled. However the Dax more than trebled during that period though it could be argued that the previous correction suffered by the Dax was far higher than the drop experienced by the Dow / S&P. However E/U also nearly doubled during the same period all the time while oil prices quadrupled on average. So it doesn’t seem that viable a theory - there’s far too many other variables in play which exert more influence would be my read of it.
TP hit now short! :51:
LOL! I got some pips, too. But I won’t play it short now. Even I guess it will go back. Bears are strong.
Anyways, we both know what will happen if that train now overshoots that 14350 area as some indis tell me it could. I am listening then for poppings SLs, lol.
Not a chance! LOL!!! That second daily long candle looks to me to be at max (won’t bore you with the why and wherefore’s), plus 1.4328 is my upper weekly range indi… seldom goes through that by much on a single daily candle.
Yeah, I don’t say it will, lol. It just could. 
Expect the unexpected and such things, lol. Here is another chart from my side:
Look at the upper right corner.
Thats a pretty professional looking set up you’ve got going there Buckscoder… maybe a ‘Level II window’ if I was being picky! LOL!!!
LOL, No, thats just bells and whistles. I have another one with dof, but that doesn’t look that fancy, lol.
The best info from it is the time of the sessions plus the spread so that brokers can’t play tricks with that on me at night time. :13:
No, that was wrong, The best info is that in the middle of the lower window in blue and white. I worked that in last week, just to see how that works out. I hope you got my email with the report of the bot. I could also send you the indi for that if you like.
In just 5 minutes this day will be over and the Sydney session starts. Just saying. So far, did it drop to 14280 where the key resistance was? If bears are still strong enough, why can’t they push it down to that level right now? That’s not the world. It’s just 20 pips. Why do we still see bull wedges?
Anyways, I see a daily close above 143 right now coming. The Nov. high was at 14281. Tomorrow will be imporant as the weekly close comes into play.
Hmmmm… Loving that little flag setup going on the 30 minute though.
I’m long short term. Got home, and jumped in at 1.4318. Stop just below the last swing low at 1.4300.
Looking for a quick 30, but if it shows momentum, I’ll stay on for the ride.
I probably should have waited, I could probably get a better entry with a tighter stop…
We’ll see