With the speed of today’s move, Greece still in the news, the end of QE2 and the stock market below 12.000… there is only one way… down…
Everybody will try to hold on to those dollars even if they are worthless pieces of paper :32:
Have to wait a see who is going to keep buying US treasury bonds and what will happen with the debt ceiling until then I expect more downside
yunny1,
today EVERYTHING is in the red. I mean everything what is on my radar. Stocks, commos, currencies. Now only the dollar accounts grow. So, it’s the same reason as in sell in May and tune in June. However, tune in June is usually not as bad as sell in May.
QE123 is already in the making. They just don’t tell. They have no other choice. Look at the even tuned stats of US nfp. That was a nightmare last Friday! They are Keynesians in DC. The only thing what they can do is to fight the fire with more fire. Until all is under fire.
Bucks, don’t think for one second that I haven’t made money this year buying the euro.
I don’t trade by the news, it’s pretty much only trading by what the charts tell me.
But I DO keep an eye on the overall picture, and will bias opportunities accordingly.
And my bias started to be short about a month ago.
I got laughed at over at FF because I said at the beginning of this year, that it wouldn’t surprise me to see the EU back to 1.48. It got so bad I deleted my pots, and swore to never make calls again. Now I read there but don’t post. It’s a little safer to surmise here. Not as many people that know it all 
And just for the record, I have banked in excess of 5000 pips this year alone only shorting the GU.
Just because it’s going up doesn’t mean you can’t make money selling, and just because it’s going down doesn’t mean you can’t make money buying. It’s a sucker’s game to think anything else…
I know it all. I just can’t remember any of it.
MT, I like your style! As you just said stay light on your feet. So, don’t believe I would take it too serious. 
It’s just really that this Greece thing makes no sense. The weeks before that drop in May the interest and news of Greece stuff was already bad, bad bad. What happened? Eur went still up. Now in May then it was Greece when all went down. And this week there were rather good news. Because they shipped their next bailout package. And today everything is in the red. So, Greece might play a role, but not the role that every asset drops. What I think. And I can understand that FF thing, lol. I went there a couple of months ago. That was my first and last experience there, ha ha.
I can also only say congrats to your profits! I am not that far right now, because I do experiment more to find new strats in addition to my bots I have already. Still in profit, though.
TD, then you should not smoke so much! 
Just kidding, lol.
You both have a great weekend!
Greece isn’t the only problem, but by the time they solve that problem, Ireland will be at the gate. And then Portugal again. But, they will have spent so much of the excess kicking the Greek can down the road, there won’t be anything left to fix the rest of them. Plus, the other EU states are starting to get tired of the situation. The US has debt issues no doubt. But with a GDP the equal of the entire EZ, and the fact that it’s all under one roof, makes it easier to solve. Congress doesn’t need to go begging to the IMF, or the ECB, and on top of that need other nation’s approvals. Nor does the Bernanke.
As for buyers and sellers, or speculation alone moving the market, I would say that is a falshood.
Buyers and sellers, yes. But not in the speculative sense. There are transactions that move the market, that have nothing to do with buys or sells for profit. Currencies aren’t stocks. You don’t buy the euro for investment, you buy it to USE for investments, or business transactions.
BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Airbus, the list goes on and on. Those guys need to use the market to swap their dollars for euros. And they don’t swap small amounts. But they wait until it benefits them the most. They aren’t stupid:D Thus, price changes in ways that don’t match the fundamentals. At least temporarily.
We place far too much faith in our little retail side of things. In the end, it’s all about the money flow. Sometimes it comes this way, sometimes it goes that way.
Price itself is an oscillator.
Who needs a stochastic?
Exceptionally well said MT… most of the money traded on the FX market has nothing whatever to do with making a profit out of the actual trade. Retail is minute… reality check guys! LOL!!!
Yeah there is a tendency amongst retail traders to talk about what “smart money” is doing in the market like it’s some single entity playing the market to take out the traders who aren’t aware of the actions of smart money. While the smart money concept might apply in the world of stocks forex is something else altogether in my opinion. There’s a wide variety of players in the markets from sovereigns, sovereign wealth funds, central banks, clearers, hedge funds, models, prop dealing desks, etc. Not to mention all the companies who use the currencies for their actual business.
That’s a lot of smart people using the market for what they need it for. And their interests and actions vary over the timeframes that they’re looking at and the factors they believe are going to impact their particular circumstances.
Greece has been the big driver recently. The market has given the EU time to sort out the mess but they’re not seeing much progress. Instead there’s actually more division showing which is making the market nervous about what happens after Greece. This is causing a few of the above mentioned groups to act in unison at this point in time which is why we’re seeing more one-way traffic recently in my opinion.
I am with all what you said, MT! That’s why I said what the press comes up with weekly wise is big BS. There are short, medium and long term factors. Short term daytraders, hedging, etc. etc. plays a role. But not fundamental things like the piigs. The fundamental factors don’t change that much in a week or two. Then, medium term you have swing traders, again hedging, etc. etc. And only long term you have classic speculators which buy cheap and sell high. And that’s it what smart money is about. A smart speculator with a lot of money doesn’t need to look for pips or pipettes. He buys at low prices, let the money in for months and sells at high prices. Or he plays the game the other short way. He has so much money that he laughs about max. risk of 2% a trade or less. He can go ALL IN and still has just exposed less than a per mille of his capital. And those speculators know already what’s going on in the EZ. They know it since years. Even I know since 7 years or so that the usd as the eur will go down hand in hand against commodities. Sometimes the usd is leading, sometimes the eur.
Yesterday it was a perfectly risk aversion day. Everything dropped like a stone. And yes, probably hedging trades in a more excessive way, too.
That’s just not true for the most part. You’re talking about financial reporters who have a ton more contacts in the industry overall compared to a lot of people. They’re reporting about what’s going on in the markets based on what they hear and think. The reporting you see in Bloomberg, Reuters, etc. can’t be called a “big BS”. There might be times where they might struggle to put the exact reason on why something is happening as they do have to print a story with an explanation but for far and away the most part they’re not inaccurate or made up.
Fundamental factors heavily influence the decisions of large players and as these fundamentals shift over time they’ll adjust their positions. They have an idea about which way things will go in the future but the world’s a volatile place and shifts happen. This whole Greece and subsequent contagion business is a good example - there’s been rumblings for a while but it’s really coming front and centre now. The market is nervous about potential defaults in 3, 4 or maybe more countries in the EZ which is the largest economy in the world. Throw in the end of QE in the US (for now anyway) and you’ve got a potential fundamental shift in the market. Yes speculators have known about these factors for some time but it’s the timing of when they really come to the fore that’s the difference. And you can get an idea from the news of how prevalent certain factors are in the market right now. To write off the news as just BS is pretty strange.
History repeats itself.
YouTube - All Watched Over by Machines of Loving Grace (Ep. 1) - Full
About the 35 minute mark, it really hits home as to the current Greek situation.
Thanks for that MT… really enjoyed it! Confirmed my belief in the financial elites! LOL!! Just going out now to convert my £’s to gold! I suppose that was the best advert for retail FX? At least we control the trade… good or bad!
Pippedipip.
selling EU tonight… after effin it up today
Long AU, EU, GU and EJ.
Just sniping for now, 10 here, 20 there. It’s looking unsettled a bit. But those flags are looking a bit on the bull side after the bump up today.
Not looking for home runs, just some base hits out of all of those.
Well… those last 10 pips came quick.
Out of Aussie @ + 20
EJ still open, GU still open, and EU still open.
Edit: Went back to the screen, and the EJ had closed. 2 left open, and closing quick…
And just like that, I’m looking for a fresh start… LOL that was a tad unusual!
well I did go long on EU for 14 pips. makes back a little of what I lost today. MT I need lessons! Maybe we can meet in chat sometime and you can tutor me. I’m real good at picking tops and bottoms lately seems like I can’t miss, but in the wrong direction! I’ll give trade signals and everyone else go in the opposite direction and you’ll all get rich…er
Took the GU support off 1.6222 last night and out for 82 points. Back in currently 18 points, 15m, 1h and 4h looking bull’ish. Daily coming around.
Long EU while bottom picking (I like those bottoms, lol) and banked some nice pips. Now long again with some locked pips. We’ll see what happens.