EURUSD Technical Analysis
The EURUSD pair fluctuates at the intraday bearish channel’s resistance now, and the EMA50 meets this resistance to add more strength to it, to support the continuation of the expected bearish trend for today, which its next targets located at 0.9840 followed by 0.9700, while holding below 1 represents major condition to continue the expected decline.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.9800 support and 0.9970 resistance, and expected trend for today is Bearish.
GBPCHF Hits the Resistance
The GBPCHF pair ended the correctional bullish attack by hitting key resistance at 1.1575, to increase the chances of its affect by the negative trades for the near term and medium term period, and notice crawling towards 1.1410.
Stochastic attempts to provide the negative momentum will provide the price with new negative momentum, to reinforce the chances of declining and target 1.1285 followed by repeating the pressure on 1.1120 obstacle.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.1530 and 1.1300, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis
The GBPUSD pair broke the bullish channel’s support line strongly to confirm the continuation of the bearish trend domination on the intraday basis, opening the way to achieve bearish correction that its next target reaches 1.1130, making the bearish bias suggested for the rest of the day unless the price rallied to breach 1.1325 followed by 1.1400 levels and hold above them.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.1200 support and 1.1325 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.
EURUSD - Germany is preparing to increase the budget deficit
Yesterday, the Federal Government of Germany announced the introduction of marginal prices for gas and electricity for domestic consumers. According to Chancellor Olaf Scholz, since March 1, residents of the country will pay no more than 12 cents per kilowatt-hour of gas and no more than 40 cents per kilowatt-hour of electricity. According to the Ministry of Finance, measures to support households and small businesses will cost the industry 33.0B euros and 21.0B euros for the national budget. Thus, 54.0B euros will be directed to the implementation of the plan, which will create a deficit in the long term. As for the report on the labor market, the unemployment rate in Germany remained around 5.5%, and the number of unemployed citizens increased by 8.0K after 13.0K in September.
The trading instrument is trying to return to the global downward channel.
Resistance levels: 0.99, 1.008 | Support levels: 0.977, 0.957
USDCHF Hits the Target
The USDCHF pair succeeded to achieve our waited target at 1.0145 and found solid resistance there, to show some bearish bias now, facing contradiction between the technical factors that makes us prefer to stay aside until we get clearer signal for the next trend.
Note that breaching the above mentioned level will lead the price to achieve additional gains that reach 1.0200 direct, while breaking 1.0090 support will press on the price to continue the decline and head to test 0.9990 areas before any new attempt to rise.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0040 support and 1.0190 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Neutral.
AUDUSD Begins Positively
The AUDUSD pair opens today’s trading with clear positivity to head towards potential test to the broken neckline of the double top pattern that appears on the chart, waiting to resume the bearish wave that targets 0.6265 followed by 0.6170 levels as next main stations.
Until now, the bearish trend scenario still valid and active unless the price rallied to breach 0.6397 and hold above it, noting that the EMA50 supports the suggested decline. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6260 support and 0.6370 resistance, the expected trend for today is Bearish.
USDCAD hits the first target
The USDCAD pair succeeded to achieve our first suggested positive target at 1.3775 and bounced downwards clearly from there, to approach testing the key support base 1.3680 by today’s open, affected by stochastic negativity that gets rid of its negative momentum clearly, while the EMA50 meets the mentioned support to add more strength to it.
Therefore, these factors encourage us to suggest the bullish bias for today, which its next target reaches 1.3860, noting that breaking 1.3680 will put the price under additional negative pressure and push the price to return to the correctional bearish trend again.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.3630 support and 1.3780 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
USDJPY Breaches the Resistance
USDJPY pair traded positively yesterday to breach the bearish channel’s resistance and settles above it, to hint the attempt to regain the main bullish trend again, but we notice that stochastic lost its positive momentum clearly, to put the price under negative pressure by today’s open.
Therefore, the contradiction between the technical factors makes us prefer to stay aside until we get clearer signal for the next trend, noting that breaching 148.45 will lead the price to achieve more gains and head towards 150 areas initially, while breaking 147.17 will put the price under the correctional bearish pressure again, to target 146 followed by 144.20 levels as next negative stations.
The expected trading range for today is between 147.10 support and 148.90 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Neutral.
Euro Declines on Profit-taking after Biggest Daily Profit Since 2015
Euro fell in European trade against a basket of major rivals on profit-taking after marking the biggest profit since late 2015 against dollar, however risks continue to surround the common currency. The dollar was boosted as well amid risk-averse sentiment with China asserting its commitment to strict Covid 19 restrictions, dashing hopes of reopening the world’s second largest economy.
EURUSD fell lover 0.5% to 0.9902, after closing up 2.2% on Friday, the first profit in five days, and the largest since December 2015.
Standing Risks
The divergent levels of European and US interest rates are ongoing risks that continue hurting euro’s standing, in addition to high energy costs and natural gas shortages. A historic increase in energy prices sent inflation considerably higher and hurt economic growth and the trade flow.
Lagarde
ECB President Christine Lagarde is preparing to present a speech organized by the European Commission in Belgium, which might offer fresh clues on the future of interest rates in the euro zone. Lagarde also noted the extremely higher inflation rates all over the euro zone, which remain far from the 2% targets.
The Dollar
The dollar index rose over 0.4% on Monday, recouping some of its hefty losses on Friday against a basket of major rivals. The dollar swooned on Friday after four Fed policymakers said they’re considering raising interest rates at the next December meeting by a lower amount compared to the previous meeting.
GBPUSD - The market is concerned about Sunak’s rhetoric to phase out fossil fuels
Yesterday, the media circulated excerpts from a statement by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, with which he intends to speak at today’s 27th United Nations (UN) climate change conference. So, the position of the office is based on the rejection of fossil fuels in favor of renewable energy sources and that the United Kingdom is ready to work with foreign allies on the issue of an early “green transition.” It may mean that the country will continue the policy of quickly abandoning oil and gas, which threatens serious economic problems. Sunak called the fight against inflation the key task for the government, which reached 10.1%, and not the pursuit of the well-being of citizens.
The instrument is kept within the long-term downward channel, trading near the resistance line.
Resistance levels: 1.146, 1.1756 | Support levels: 1.1154, 1.084
The EURUSD Achieves Strong Gains
The EURUSD pair ended last Friday with strong positivity, settling above 0.9900 barrier, to reinforce the chances of continuing the rise in the upcoming period, waiting to test 1 level as a next station, noting that breaching this level will lead the price to achieve additional gains that reach 1.0165. Therefore, the bullish bias will be suggested for today, noting that breaking 0.9870 will stop the positive scenario and press on the price to decline again, to head towards visiting 0.9755 initially.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.9870 support and 1.0030 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
GBPJPY Records Some Targets
The GBPJPY pair succeeded to breach 166.80 level, to form strong bullish rally and notice achieving many positive targets by touching 169.10 level, while the price might form sideways fluctuation until gathering the additional positive momentum that will assist to resume the rise and reach the additional targets near 169.65 and 170.50.
The above chart shows that stochastic begins to form bullish waves to approach 50 level, to increase the chances of gaining the required positive momentum to achieve the suggested targets.
The expected trading range for today is between 167.80 and 169.65, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
AUDUSD awaits more rise
The AUDUSD pair settles around 0.6470 level, and the price needs to get positive momentum that assists to push trades to continue rising and achieve our next positive target at 0.6540. In general, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend unless breaking 0.6397 and holding below it, noting that the EMA50 continues to support the expected bullish wave.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.6420 support and 0.6540 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
USDJPY - Japanese currency retains its advantage
This morning, the Bank of Japan published a summary of opinions – a survey of regulator officials in all areas of the economy. Their points of view often turn out to be correct in the long run, and this time almost all participants in the discussion noted a positive trend: it is expected that the purchasing power of household incomes will continue to grow and slow down slightly only next year. At the same time, the maximum value of the inflation indicator is estimated at 3.0%, and by mid-2023, it is projected to decline to 2.0%. The regulator does not intend to change the dovish rhetoric and will likely maintain a policy of negative interest rates at subsequent meetings. In turn, the index of household spending in September increased by 1.8% after falling by 1.7% in August, which was reflected in the growth of the annual value, which now added 2.3%, and the average wage in October – 2 .1% after rising 1.7% last month.
The trading instrument moves within the global uptrend, smoothly reversing downwards.
Resistance levels: 148.25, 151 | Support levels: 145, 141.5
USDCHF hits the negative target
The USDCHF pair managed to touch the waited negative target at 0.990 and achieved negative close below it, to support the chances of continuing the bearish bias in the upcoming sessions, paving the way to head towards 0.9815 as a next target. Therefore, we expect to witness more decline today, noting that failing to consolidate below 0.9890 will lead the price to start intraday bullish wave that targets testing 0.9990 areas initially.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.9830 support and 0.9970 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.
Dow Jones - US stock market continues to rise
Quotes of stock indicators took advantage of the slowdown in the bond market and continue to grow after the publication of positive corporate reports. According to financial company Refinitiv Lipper, the average value of shares of US funds increased by 8.7% in October, which served as a catalyst for the DJIA quotes to strengthen by 14.0% during the month.
Index quotes continue corrective dynamics, rising in the direction of the daily channel resistance line.
Support levels: 32000, 30650 | Resistance levels: 33300, 34300
ETHUSD - Murrey analysis
Last week, the ETHUSD pair reached three-month highs at 1635.35 but then began to decline as part of the general market trend, which continues to the present. Now the price is actively testing 1500 (Murrey [4/8], the middle line of Bollinger bands), hoping to consolidate below it and reverse the current short-term uptrend. If successful, the decline may continue to 1375 (Murrey [2/8]), 1312.5 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, Murrey [1/8]). The key “bullish” level is 1625 (Murrey [6/8]), a breakout of which will give the prospect of resuming growth around 1745 (Murrey [8/8], Fibonacci correction 23.6%), 1812.5 (Murrey [+1/8], the upper limit of the downstream channel).
Resistance levels: 1625, 1745, 1812.5 | Support levels: 1500, 1375, 1312.5
EURUSD resumes the rise
The EURUSD pair’s rise stopped near 1.0100 level, to show tight fluctuation in attempt to gain some new positive momentum, waiting to resume the bullish wave that targets 1.0180 as a next station.
Until now, the bullish trend scenario still valid for the upcoming period as long as 1 level remains intact, noting that the EMA50 continues to support the suggested bullish wave, which its targets extend to reach 1.0285 after surpassing the above mentioned level.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.0000 support and 1.0170 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
NZDUSD Achieves more Gains
The NZDUSD pair achieved our first positive target at 0.6 and bounced downwards temporarily from there, to attempt to gather the positive momentum, waiting to resume the bullish wave that targets 0.61 level as a next main station.
The EMA50 continues to support the price from below, to keep the bullish trend scenario valid and active conditioned by the price stability above 0.591. The expected trading range for today is between 0.591 support and 0.602 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bullish.
Dollar Heads to more Losses Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
Dollar fell against most major rivals on Tuesday amid geopolitical uncertainty, coinciding with today’s US mid-term Congressional elections. Most analysts expect the Republican party to win most seats in this election, moving aside the Democrats from their current majority. Later this week, important US inflation data will be released and will provide clues on the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policies.
The Federal Reserve decided last week to increase interest rates by 75 basis points as expected, the fourth such increase in a row to control inflation. The dollar index fell 0.4% to 109.6 as of 18:36 GMT, with an intraday high at 110.6, and a low at 109.3.