Forex today: Daily analysis

MartinWill · August 19, 2020, 1:13pm

Main market movements on August 19

19.08.2020

The sentiment is indeed risk-on today! S&P 500 surged to the all-time high, and EUR/USD jumped to levels unseen since May of 2018. Let’s have a closer look.

Fundamentals

Joe Biden, the candidate for the US president, claimed that there is a strong “desire” between Democrats and Republicans to reach a deal over the next fiscal stimulus package soon. Actually, he announced the amount a bit smaller than most expected – 500 billion dollars. Nevertheless, the upcoming agreement itself has improved the market sentiment.

US-China trade talks have been postponed. White House haven’t yet announced the next date of the Sino-American meeting over the trade agreement. Market participants are waiting for next movements.

All eyes today on the FOMC meeting minutes and OPEC gathering.

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Technical tips

EUR/USD

The most traded pair has approached the resistance at 1.1950. If it breaks it through, it may surge to the next key psychological mark at 1.2000. Otherwise, if it falls below the 1.9000, it may fall even deeper to the low of August 17 at 1.1835.

Gold

XAU/USD has contracted after the move above the key psychological level of $2 000. It may be just a natural short sell-of ahead of the further rally up. If it crosses the resistance at $2 010, it may surge to the next one at the high of August 7 at $2 035. On the flip side, if it falls below the support at $1 965, it may fall even deeper to $1 940.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD has reached the 200 moving average on the weekly chart. It’s quite a strong resistance, therefore it’s likely to bounce off. Nevertheless, if it manages to cross it, it will surge to 0.7300. In opposite, the move below 0.7130 may push the price even lower to the key support at 0.7000.

Oil

There is an important event for the oil market today: OPEC meeting. Follow it as it will add some volatility to the oil market. Let’s look at the WTI chart. If the price rises above the yesterday high at $42.85, it will open doors towards the high of August 5 at $43.20. On the contrary, if it breaks down the support at $42.25, it will fall to $41.90.

Follow further news:

OPEC meeting will be hold during the day!

The detailed report of the last FOMC statement will be out at 21:00 MT time! Stay tuned!

Check the economic calendar

MartinWill · August 25, 2020, 3:08pm

How to trade on August 25?

More at: https://bit.ly/3lfR9sX

25.08.2020

The overall sentiment remains upbeat amid vaccine hopes and improved US-China relationships. US and China authorities had a phone call and claimed that some progress has already been made and they will continue negotiating. The USA recorded yesterday the lowest amount of new cases in over two months, that also encourages the market.

As a result, stocks rose on the current optimism. S&P 500 has surged to fresh highs. It is trading above the key resistance of 3 500. If it manages to cross it, the stock index may jump to 3 550. On the flip side, if it falls below 3 415, it may slump even deeper to 3 400.

Let’s move on to The overall sentiment remains upbeat amid vaccine hopes and improved US-China relationships. Let’s have a closer look… The price is just above the key support of 1.1800. The move below this level will drive the price to the Friday’s low of 1.1770. Otherwise, if it soars above 50 moving average on the 4-hour chart, it will clear the way towards 1.1880. Follow the US consumer confidence report today at 17:00 MT time as it will add some fresh volatility to the market.

Let’s discuss gold. It’s stuck in a range between $1 925 and $1 950. If it escapes this range breaking through its top, it may surge to the high of August 14 of $1 960. Otherwise, if it breaks down the bottom of the range, it may fall even deeper to $1 910.

The Bank of Japan released its core CPI of 0.0%, that was worse analysts’ expectations of 0.1%. Therefore, USD/JPY rose sharply. If it breaks out the high of august 3 at 106.30, it may jump to the next resistance of 106.60. Support levels are at 106.00 and 105.80.

Finally, let’s talk about AUD/USD. The risk-on currency has modestly reacted to the upbeat sentiment. If it rises above the yesterday high of 0.7200, it will surge to the high of August 6 at 0.7235. Otherwise, if it drops below the Friday’s low of 0.7150, it may slump even deeper to 0.7110.

Follow the report of US consumer confidence at 17:00 MT time!

Check the economic calendar

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MartinWill · August 31, 2020, 1:06pm

Forex news on the last day of summer

31.08.2020

The US dollar has started the week on the positive footing, while riskier assets are dipping down. Let’s discuss last market movements in more details.

Chinese economic activity has shown signs of a sustained recovery from the virus slump. Manufacturing PMI came out almost as planned: 51.0 vs. the forecast of 51.1. Non-manufacturing PMI turned out even better than analysts anticipated. It was 55.2, while only 54.0 was foreseen. As a result, the Chinese yuan gained significantly. Let’s look at the USD/CNH daily chart. The pair has been confidently declining since the end of May. Today it has almost reached the levels unseen since end of January. If it falls below the 200-week moving average of 6.8100, it will open doors towards the low of January 20 at 6.7500. Otherwise, if it jumps above the high of August 21 at 6.9200, it may surge to the nest resistance of 6.9700.

Let’s move on to Japanese latest news. The country is looking for a new prime minister. Besides, Japanese stocks have surged after Warren Buffet claimed an investment in the country’s local firms. The Japanese yen gained after the positive news, but then the US dollar outperformed it. The pair has bounced off the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 105.51. If it breaks through the key psychological mark of 106.00, it may climb up to the key resistance of 106.00. In the opposite scenario, if it falls below 105.51 again, it may dip down to the low of August 19 at 105.15.

As for the virus, investors have optimistic prospects for a vaccine. China has approved the Sinovac COVID-19 vaccine candidate for emergency use. The US FDA claimed that it is planning to fast-track vaccine approval if benefits outweigh the potential risks.

S&P 500 reached the all-time high of 3 525. If it rises up to 3 550, it will jump to 3 600. Otherwise, the move below the key psychological mark of 3 500 will drive the price to the next support of 3 470.

Finally, let’s talk about gold. It has reversed from the resistance of $1 975 and started falling down. If it breaks down the support of $1 955, it will fall deeper to the next one at $1 930. On the flip side, if it jumps above $1 975, it may climb up to the key psychological mark of $2 000.

Follow further news:

Fed’s chair, Richard Clarida will make a speech at 16:00 MT time. He may unveil some details of the Fed’s new approach to inflation targeting, which sent the US dollar down last week.

MartinWill · September 2, 2020, 12:45pm

What drives the market on September 2?

02.09.2020

The US dollar has reversed from its’ losses, caused by the dovish Fed statement. Yesterday US ISM Manufacturing PMI came out 56.0, beating estimates of 54.6 and signaling the industry expansion. It’s one of the main indicators of economic activity as businesses adapt fast to a new environment, and their purchasing managers have a sense of the current economic state. As a result, the optimistic report has driven the greenback upward.

Today the Australian GDP turned out worse than analysts expected. It contracted by 7.0%, while the forecast was -6.0%. The Australian dollar has started dipping down amid the negative data. Let’s look at the charts. AUD/USD has bounced off the key resistance of 0.7400 and started dipping down. If it crosses the support of 0.7300, it may fall even deeper to the low of August 27 at 0.7240. In the opposite scenario, if it manages to break above 0.7365, it may rise up to 0.7400.

Later on, German retail sales slumped by 0.9%, while analysts foresaw the increase by 0.5%. The worse-than-expected report added headwinds to already weakening EUR. EUR/USD has just broken through1.1900. The drop below the 50-period moving average at 1.1850 will drive the pair lower to the key support of 1.1800. On the flip side, if it jumps above 1.1900, the way to 1.2000 will be open.

The ADP report at 15:15 MT time will add fresh volatility to the pair. If the ADP is better than the forecasts, the USD will gain and, therefore, drive EUR/USD down. Otherwise, if the ADP is worse than the forecasts, the USD will fall and, therefore, drive EUR/USD up.

Check the economic calendar

Let’s move on to gold. XAU/USD has reversed from the support of $1 960. If it manages to cross the resistance of $1 990, it may surge to the psychological mark of $2 000. Support levels are at $1 960 and $1 950.

Finally, let’s discuss the S&P 500. It rallied to a record high of 3 540, driven by Tesla and Apple, which gained due to their stock splits and positive economic data. The move above 3 550 will drive it to 3 600. Support levels are 3 490 and 3 470.

Watch our daily forex trading plan!

ZacKing · September 4, 2020, 1:11pm

avoiding nfp , anyone else?

ZacKing · September 4, 2020, 1:12pm

EXCELLENT overview well done

emeraldpeeve · December 1, 2020, 5:08am

I observed the market to be improving and I have found suitable currency pairs to trade in according to the market as the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD and GBP/USB. Even in the unstable and volatile market, these currency pairs are showing some good numbers to count on.

MartinWill · June 9, 2021, 4:04am

Short-term rebound in gold

Gold managed to bounce back right after the US Jobs Report on Friday and closed the week near the $1900 resistance. Gold continues to benefit from inflation expectations. Yet, such rebound is unlikely to be sustainable. The technical indicators still suggesting another leg lower in the coming days. The downside retracement may target 1860 and 1850 USD/Oz where we will reassess our medium-term long positions that were issued back in April, while we maintain our stop loss at 1835 for now. now.

MartinWill · June 10, 2021, 10:41pm

Eyes on Bank of Canada’s decision today

All eyes are headed toward the Bank of Canada today. Estimates point to no change both for the main rate and the ongoing QE which stands at $3B weekly. Moreover, the bank is likely to keep the forward guidance unchanged, while delaying the 2nd round of tapering until July. Our USD/CAD longs from 1.2060 are already in profit and it would be wise to move the stop to entry ahead of the decision to protect the current positions from any possible loss. On the upside view, the technical indicators are improving gradually, while we maintain our target for the current positions at 1.2145 followed by 1.22.

References: FBS (09.06.2021) Eyes on Bank of Canda today.

MartinWill · June 10, 2021, 10:53pm

USD/CAD is over 1.21 after BoC

The Bank of Canada decided to keep the current policy unchanged as widely expected. However, the bank did not mention anything about tapering again in July. Moreover, the statement mentioned that the recovery still needs an extraordinary stimulus. This was enough to ease the downside pressure on USD/CAD. The pair managed to stabilize and bounced back right from our long entry at 1.2060 all the way to as high as 1.2125 earlier this morning. For the time being, we maintain our bullish outlook and our targets remain at 1.2145 followed by 1.R

References: FBS (10.06.2021) usd/cad IS OVER 1.2 AFTER bOC

MartinWill · June 14, 2021, 11:46pm

Gold prices tumbled on Friday and at beginning of the Asian session today, reaching as low as $1854/Oz, breaking through its upside channel on the daily chart, while the technical indicators are now clearly bearish, which confirms our short-term retracement outlook mentioned before since gold was trading above $1910. In the meantime, the key support for this week stands at $1840 which represents the 200-day MA, where gold is likely to show some stabilization, while we maintain our medium-term long positions that were issued back in April at $1710 and $1725 unchanged with a Stop Loss at $1730/Oz for now.

Reference: Gold’s break down: what’s next? (14.06.2021)

MartinWill · June 16, 2021, 1:15am

Gold prices tumbled during the first trading day of the week declining to as low as 1844 USD/Oz. However, it was able to trim these losses and closed the day around 1866 USD/Oz. Yet, the daily close is another bearish sign , since gold has broken the upside channel on the daily chart. Such a break remains in line with our expectations and the current downside retracement is not over yet. In the meantime, gold may retest its 200-day MA which stands around 1839 USD/Oz which likely to hold for a while before the uptrend resumes . Yet, we prefer to keep gold under our radar for few more days at least until the Federal Reserve decision, which would confirm whether gold will resume its major uptrend or the downside retracement has more legs to go.

Reference: FBS (15.06.2021) Gold reached our retreacement traget.

MartinWill · June 17, 2021, 6:41pm

Everyone is interested in trading gold (XAU/USD). The meeting of the Federal Reserve at 21:00 MT time (GMT+3) will certainly drive the price. In this article, however, we’ll look at the technical side of things to see what opportunities lie there.

First, the uptrend since the end of March is still in place. On the weekly chart, there’s a 50-week MA just below $1855 – this level is supporting the price.

Second, on the D1 an Inside bar formed yesterday: it’s a sign that the price is consolidating ahead of the major breakout. The decline below $1855 will open the way down to $1845/$1840 (200-day MA). If XAU/USD stays above $1855, it will rise to $1867. A further breakout will bring the price shoot up to $1874 and $1880.

Reference: FBS (16.06.2021) Gold: short term trade ideas.

MartinWill · June 22, 2021, 12:01am

Nikkei 225 has sharply dropped after the hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve. The central bank claimed it might raise interest rates in 2023 (or even in late 2022) and also started a discussion on cutting bond buys. Well, that decision pushed the USD dollar up and pressed some stocks down. Which ones? Stocks that were favored in reflation trade or, in other words, those that benefited from higher inflation: value and cyclical stocks. The worst performers of the last week were banks and cyclical-heavy Japanese stocks.

The Japanese stock index Nikkei dropped by 4% – the most since April! It has a huge proportion of economically sensitive stocks, that’s why the hit was so hard. Uniqlo (Fast Retailing Co.), the clothing retailer, and the chip-equipment producer Tokyo Electron Ltd. dropped the most on the index. Besides, the slow vaccination pace in Japan and the dark outlook for the Tokyo Olympics pressed the stock index down as well. Still, the JP 225 is at the all-time highs. This drop may be just a healthy correction ahead of the further rally up.

The JP 225 INDEX is moving inside the descending channel. The long lower shadow of the last candle gives a bullish signal. The sentiment has started changing, and the stock index may rise to the 50-day moving average of 28,900. The breakout above this level will drive the pair to the last week’s high of 29,400. This resistance level won’t be broken on the first try as the stock index has failed to do that a few times. On the flip side, the move below the 200-day moving average of 27,500 will push JP 225 to the next round number of 27,000.

Reference: FBS (21.06.2021) Greatest sale of Japanese stocks

MartinWill · June 22, 2021, 3:04pm

These days, investors’ attention is on Microsoft ahead of the company’s Windows 11 event on June 24. MSFT will uncover the “next generation of Windows”, that’s why the stock price has surged: the tech giant reached the all-time high of $263.50. It is still unclear what the company will release during the event, but investors tend to follow the rule “buy the rumor, sell the fact”.

Forecasts

According to TipRanks, Microsoft currently holds a “Strong Buy” recommendation. According to JPMorgan, the stock price will hit $270 – the lowest price target among other banks. Goldman Sachs set a price target at $340, which is 30% higher than the current levels.

Cloud acquisition

Just to remind you, Microsoft is not only Office 365, it’s a lot more! Think of Xbox and Teams. The company’s cloud offerings are Azure infrastructure services, Office 365 productivity software, and Dynamics enterprise software. Besides, Microsoft owns LinkedIn, Skype, OneDrive, and GitHub.

Microsoft takes one of the leading positions in cloud computing among Google and Amazon. After the coronavirus outbreak, cloud services become essential for most companies. In 2020, the company introduced Microsoft Cloud for Healthcare. In April 2021, it bought Nuance, a leading provider of artificial intelligence services for healthcare. You can hardly find any more important industries amid the Covid-19 pandemic than cloud computing, AI, and healthcare. It seems that Microsoft is engaged in almost all high-potential industries!

Technical outlook

Microsoft is moving inside the ascending channel. Now, it’s getting closer to the psychological mark of $270.00. It’s unlikely to break it on the first try as the RSI indicator is approaching the 30.0 level, which signals the stock will be soon overbought. However, if Microsoft surprises investors on June 24, it may skyrocket! Keep updated! Support levels are at the low of June 16 at $255.00 and the 100-day moving average of $245.00.

Reference: FBS (22.06.2021) Microsoft hit record high

MartinWill · July 5, 2021, 3:39pm

Gold managed to regain above its key support area mentioned in our previous reports at 1769 USD/Oz, which represents its 61.8% Fibonacci of the recent rally (April – June). On Friday, Gold advanced further nearing 1790 USD/Oz, while the technical indicators has turned slightly higher. This confirms our bullish outlook in the short and medium terms. In the meantime, we prefer to long gold between 1780 and 1770 USD/Oz with a stop at last week’s lows, as revisiting that low would change the major outlook once again. On the upside view, Gold needs to break above 1800 USD/Oz in the coming days, which would be another positive factor in both short and medium terms.

Reference: FBS (05.07.2021) New Gold Signal. FBS analytic articles.

MartinWill · July 6, 2021, 2:02pm

GBP/USD has managed to rise for the third trading day in a row including today’s Asian session, while the daily technical indicators are moving higher gradually. This supports the idea of a short-term retracement to the upside before the downtrend resumes later. In the meantime, GBP/USD is nearing a new selling zone which stands at 1.3950 and represents its 100-day MA followed by the psychological resistance at 1.40. This is the area where we will be interested in shorting GBP/USD not only on the short-term but on the medium-term as well, despite the fact that GBP/USD managed to hold above its uptrend line on the daily chart. We believe that this is a short-term play before the downside pressure resumes especially with the continuous estimates of a sooner tapering by the Federal Reserve.

Reference: FBS (06.07.2021) GPD/USD Near supply Zone. Fbs Articles.

MartinWill · July 7, 2021, 4:11pm

What happened?

China’s tech companies have lost $823 billion in total since their February highs. The losses are huge! What’s the reason? Beijing expands its crackdown on the technology sector and this fact worries investors as the selloff may be far from over.

China’s authorities tighten the rules for the country’s largest companies, especially for those who are listed overseas or looking for selling their stocks abroad. It happened after Didi, China’s Uber, went public in the US. That triggered the sell-off of other China’s tech giants such as Tencent, Alibaba, JD.Com Inc., Baidu, and Meituan.

“The selling will continue in the third quarter. The measures from authorities will keep coming,” said Pegasus Fund Managers.

Most investors are going to take a “sell first, talk later” approach to reduce risks in their portfolio, claimed United First Partners.

“In case the market sentiment goes into extreme pessimism and we see the Hang Seng Tech Index down 20% from here, it could be a rare opportunity to buy some fast-growing Chinese internet companies at extremely attractive prices,” GAM’s Jian Shi claimed.

*We will analyze the Hang Seng Index (HK50), which is available for trading with FBS. If you notice, the quote above tells about the Hang Seng Tech Index, but both the indices are strongly correlated with each other.

Technical outlook

The HK 50 index has reversed up from the 200-day moving average of 27,600. Why? After a big drop always goes the big rise. Now the index is getting closer to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 28,335. If it crosses it, the way up to the 38.2% Fibo level of 28,900 will be clear. Support levels are the 200-day moving average of 27,600 and the psychological mark of 27,000.

Reference: FBS (07.07.2021) China’s tech selloff. Time to buy the Dips? Fbs analytic news.

MartinWill · July 8, 2021, 4:14pm

EUR/USD declined for the third session in a row, reaching as low as 1.1780 but managed to close yesterday’s trading above 1.18 support area, while the technical indicators are heavily oversold on most timeframes, especially on the daily chart. So far, our pending orders to short EURUSD remain unchanged, but the pair is trading far below our orders. Since the technical indicators are heavily oversold, it might be wise to risk some long positions from the current area at 1.18, with a tight stop of 1.1750, with a possibility to retest 1.19 in the coming days. This is just a short term play and won’t change our bearish outlook, especially after the pair broke its trendline on the daily chart which began back in March 2020.

Short-term trade idea for EUR/USD

BUY 1.1800; TP 1.1900; SL 1.1750

Reference: FBS (08.07.2021) Let’s Risk some USD/EUR here. Fbs Analytic news.

MartinWill · July 12, 2021, 7:01pm

What will happen?

The much-awaited earnings season is about to start! The first companies that will deliver their financial results for the second quarter will be Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and PepsiCo.

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are American multinational investment banks. They are going to deliver their Q2 financial results on July 13 at 14:30 and 15:30 GMT+3, respectively. The GS’s forecast is $9.96 earnings per share. The JPM’s forecast is $3.16 earnings per share. Last time, the banks beat the estimates due to the rise in wealth and consumer banking revenues after the Covid-19 crisis. However, this time, the result may be weaker than expected as Wall Street analysts have predicted trading revenue at top US banks slumped by 28%.

If Goldman Sachs reveals better-than-expected EPS, it may break above the psychological mark of $380.00, which will open the doors towards the high of June 4 at $390.00. Support levels are the low of June 8 at $360.00 and the 100-day moving average of $350.00.

JPMorgan is getting closer to the key resistance level at the 50-day moving average of $158.00. If the Q2 earnings are strong, it may jump above $158.00, clearing the way up to the all-time high of $167.00. On the flip side, the drop below the low of July 8 at $150.00 will push the stock down to the next support at $147.00.

PepsiCo , the giant beverage company, will reveal its Q2 earnings on July 13 at 13.00 GMT+3. The market expects the company to deliver earnings of $1.53 per share. Most analysts are optimistic about Pepsi’s earnings. Indeed, the coronavirus-related costs should be reduced due to a successful vaccine rollout in the US, which accounts for roughly 2/3 of total Pepsi’s profits.

If PepsiCo reveals strong financial data, its stock price may jump above the $150.00 psychological mark, which will open the doors to the next round number of $155.00. Support levels are the 50-day moving average of $147.00 and the low of June 24 at $146.00.

Reference: FBS (12.07.2021) Earnings season starts! FBS analytic news