Forex today: Daily analysis

[MartinWill]

USDCAD began the week slightly higher reaching as high as 1.2510 but failed to sustain these gains and dropped back by the end of the US session and closed the day at 1.2440 forming a bearish shooting star on the daily chart. On the other hand, the RSI indictors has broken its up-trend line which confirms the downside retracement move. With that being said, we would like to short USDCAD for a short term play at the current area around 1.2455 with a stop at yesterday’s high at 1.2510 only, with an initial target at 1.24 followed by 1.2360 which could be see in the coming days, especially if the Bank of Canada decided to taper again this week.

Reference: FBS (13.07.2021) USD/CAD short trade. FBS analytuc news.

[MartinWill]

What will happen?

International Business Machines, a huge IT company, which provides integrated solutions and services worldwide, will announce its earnings results for the first quarter on July 20 at 00.00 MT . Let’s get ready!

How to trade on earnings?

It’s really easy! Just compare the forecasted earnings with the actual and follow the rule below.

• If the results are better than expected, IBM will increase its value.
• Otherwise, if earnings are worse than the forecasts, IBM will fall.

The good news for FBS traders is that they can make both buy and sell trades while trading stocks –the rules are almost the same as for the currency pairs. So, you don’t need to already have an asset to sell it.

What are fundamental factors?

Not great, but with good potential! IBM has issues with its financial position as short-term assets cover neither short-term nor long-term liabilities. Also, IBM’s debt to equity ratio (260,7%) is considered high. Nevertheless, IBM is undervalued based on the cash flows the company is expected to generate in the future.

How has IBM been doing?

It was doing good! Global digitalization is increasing a positive trend for IBM’s earnings. This trend is expected to continue. The company primarily generates revenues from Cloud & Cognitive Software Segment. During the 2nd quarter of 2021 IBM has signed contracts with Verizon offering their Cloud services to run its 5G networks. Also, the company entered 30 new partnerships in the edge computing market segment, such as Intel, Lumen Technologies, NetApp, etc. These facts indicate a possible increase in IBM’s financial performance during the 2nd quarter of 2021.

Let’s look at the chart!

On the 4-hour chart, IBM located between 145$ and 137$ lines. 145$ trend line, also, is an interception point of 50 and 100-period moving averages, so it seems to be a very strong resistance level. If IBM would break this resistance the goal would be 152$.

On the other hand, the move down to the 200-period and breaking through it could send IBM price down to 137$ and 132$ support lines.

Reference: FBS (14.07.2021) IBM earning report July 20

[MartinWill]

What happened?

It seems that Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates are still discussing a potential agreement over OPEC+ policy about cooling oil prices by increasing oil supply.

Oil demand forecast.

After OPEC+ reduced oil production by almost 10 million barrels per day in 2020 to control the supply level during the pandemic, the world economy has started to go through a recovery stage. According to OPEC+ forecast, by Q4 2021, global oil demand will average 99.45 million b/d, compared with 99.98 million b/d in 2019. That is why during the last two weeks OPEC+ has been discussing an increase in oil production. In case this decision is approved, the price correction will be inevitable.

Technical analyses.

On the daily chart, Brent is trading above 50, 100, 200-day moving averages. It has formed a rising wedge with a divergence on the RSI oscillator, which is a bearish pattern. As soon as the price will cross the bottom line of the wedge it might go down to the 73$, 69.50$, 57$ support levels. Until the bottom line of the pattern has not been crossed the main goal is 77$.

Reference: FBS (15.07.2021) How will the Brent OPEC+ decision influence the price? FBS analytic news

[MartinWill]

China released GDP: good or bad?

15 July, China released the data about the national gross domestic product. GDP growth in the 2nd quarter of 2021 was 7.9% comparing with the same period of 2020. The growth rate in the 2nd quarter was slower than the 18.3% growth registered in the 1st one. This fact describes how much the Chinese economy had suffered from COVID-19. Rapidly recovered China’s economy basically reaches pre-covid trend.

The growth rate of the world’s 2nd largest economy has slowed down. However, it is still on track to reach 6% annual growth. Retail sales in June rose 12.1% year over year, which means that people are still spending money, mostly on restaurants and catering services. At the same time, the production of steel and cement decreased in June from the previous month. The combination of these factors suggests that China’s economy is going to rely more on consumer demand. This fact fueled optimism that China’s economic growth is becoming more balanced.

How about COVID-19?

On Wednesday, the National Health Commission reported that the country has vaccinated at least half of its population at least with one dose as 1.4 billion vaccines have been used. For now, the main goal of China’s anti-Covid-19 campaign is the vaccination of teenagers between 12 and 17 years old by the end of October. As the National Health Commission reports the main goal is to vaccinate at least 70% of the population by the end of the year.

What does it mean for traders?

As China’s economy is 2nd largest in the world it makes a significant impact on the number of assets from the trader’s list. First, the growth of China’s economy has a significant impact on the oil demand in the world.

Second, China is the main export destination for goods from Australia and New Zealand. Chinese economic growth increases the demand for key goods from these countries which leads to an increase in capital flow and respectively forms a tendency for AUD and NZD to appreciate against a basket of currencies. Last but not the least, traders from all over the world use HK50 and Alibaba stocks to invest in China’s economy. Let’s check what is going on with these assets in the next paragraph!

Technical analyses of HK50 and Alibaba stock price.

On the daily HK50 chart, the bullish flag has occurred. The price bounced off the bottom line of the flag and broke through the 200-day moving average. Right now, it is heading towards the top line of the flag, which is 29100. If the price breaks this resistance level the target will be 31000. This is a great opportunity to open a long position! On the flip side, in case the price breaks the support level of 26900, it will aim towards 24900.

Reference: FBS (16.07.2021) China: the worst has happened? FBS analytic news.

[MartinWill]

Crude Oil dropped sharply last week right from our selling zone mentioned in our weekly video between 75.50 and 76.60, Brent Crude declined to 72.20’s nearing our 72.14 target mentioned in our weekly video as well. Now when OPEC+ drama is over, the trend hasn’t necessarily changed. There are two factors that we need to keep in mind, i) Iran’s supply is still expected to hit the global market soon ii) Covid19 is spreading again with a new variant affecting vaccinated people. Some countries already took new measures such as a partial lockdown. If this continues, Oil is likely to remain under pressure. In the meantime, it’s wise to close some of the short positions and wait for another opportunity, while it is also possible to move the stop to our entry

Reference: FBS (19.07.2021) OPEC+ drama is over, what about oil? FBS Analytic news.

[MartinWill]

What is happening?

Bitcoin has closed its daily candle under the 50-week moving average for the first time since April 2020. The last time Bitcoin broke through this resistance it fell by 57%. If the situation repeats the price will reach approximately $13000 during this bearish market. Also, it broke through the key support level of $31000, which was holding the price from January the 4th, 2021.

The plunge in bitcoin came after a big sell-off in the global stock market. Traders and investors try to hedge their savings, that is why they prefer the US dollar and Treasuries to risky assets like bitcoin.

What puts bitcoin under pressure?

In May 2021, China banned mining and trading cryptocurrencies. China’s central bank also reminded finance and fintech companies not to offer crypto-related services to customers. China was one of the major countries in cryptocurrencies mining, that is why the situation around bitcoin will remain questionable for a while.

Technical analyses

Short-term trade:

On the daily chart, the falling wedge with a bullish divergence has occurred. If the price breaks the top line of the wedge the target will be $34500, which is approximately the 50-day moving average. If the price does not break this resistance, it will drop to the $23500 level.

Long-term trade:

The 50-week moving average is historically the key sup

port level for bitcoin. If the price does not stick above this line by the end of July 25th, the first long-term target will be $23500.

Reference: FBS (20.07.2021) Bitcoin: Bullish market is over. FBS analytic news.

[MartinWill]

EV’s market is going to explode in the 2020s

By the end of 2020, there were 10 million electric cars registered in the world. The number of electric cars registrations increased by 41% in 2020. Electric bus and truck registrations reached global levels of 600,000 and 31,000, respectively.

Three factors supported EV markets during the pandemic:

• A legislative framework. Many countries accepted regulatory laws about the amount of CO2 emission and zero-emission vehicles.
• Government protection of EV market additional intensives. Many European countries kept electric purchases stimulation and China continues its subsidy campaign.
• Battery cost decrease.

Vehicle manufacturers stay optimistic about the electrification of the car industry. 18 out of 20 announced plans for new electric vehicles models. The availability of heavy electric models is also going to grow together with the four main manufacturers pointing towards the electric future of this segment.

Despite the great support from the government’s campaigns for the EV markets during the pandemic, the amount of stimulus governments spend to support this sector decreases year-to-year. This fact points to the increasing consumer demand: producers are now able to survive on their own.

The near-term perspectives are looking great as, during the Q1 of 2021, global electric car sales grew by 140% compared with the same period of 2020.

In the most common scenario, analysts predict global EV markets to reach 145 million models by 2030, which will be 7% of the road vehicle fleet. However, if governments activate their plans to achieve global ecological plans the global EV market might grow up to 230 million units (12% of the road vehicle fleet).

Despite the success of the EV market during the last years, the ecological problem is still far from being solved. Although new technologies in battery and mass manufacture will reduce the costs of EVs, governments will have to cooperate to reach the climate goal by creating and promoting zero-emission EVs.

Global EVs programs

Electric Vehicles Initiative

In 2010 the Electric vehicles Initiative (EVI) was established under the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM). The main goal of this forum is to understand the main political problems connected with electric mobility and accelerating the adoption of EV’s worldwide. At 2020-2021 15 countries are taking an active part in this organization, these are Canada, Chile, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, and United Kingdom.

EV30@30 Campaign

In 2017 the EV30@30 Campaign was launched. The main goal of this campaign is to accelerate EVs deployment all over the world and reach the number of 30% EVs sales in each country member. By 2021 besides 14 countries this campaign is supported by 30 organizations including C40; FIA Foundation; Global Fuel Economy Initiative; Hewlett Foundation; Natural Resources Defence Council; REN21; SLoCaT; The Climate Group; UN Environment Programme; UN-Habitat; World Resources Institute; ZEV Alliance; ChargePoint; Energias de Portugal; Enel X; E.ON; Fortum; Iberdrola; Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance; Schneider Electric; TEPCO; Vattenfall and ChargeUp Europe.

Trends in EVs markets

Europe

In 2020, the overall European car market fell by 22%. However, the amount of EVs doubled to 1.4 million overall. Germany registered 395,000 new EVs, France reached the level of 185,000 new units. The UK doubled the number of EVs and reached the level of 176,000 EVs over the country.

China

The overall number of new car registration dropped by 9% during 2020 in China. However, EVs sales grew up to 5.7% comparing with 4.8% in 2019. Subsidies aimed at EV market growth were due to expire by the end of 2020, but the government decided to cut them by 10% and extend them till 2022.

The United States

The overall US car market dropped by 23% in 2020, but the electric one felt stronger. In 2020, 295,000 new EVs were registered. Government stimulus decreased in 2020, as the federal tax credits for Tesla and General Motors reached the limit.

Consumer spending vs government spending

Governments across the world spent USD 14 billion on EVs market stimulus during 2020. This is 25% higher than in the previous year, but the overall tendency declines as the total amount of spending dropped by 10% from 2015.

Consumers, on the contrary, spent USD 14 billion, which is 50% more than they did in 2019. These facts describe the global tendency of rising interest from consumers and a great potential for the EVs market in the future.

Tesla, GM, Ford stocks analyses

Tesla

Tesla became profitable in 2020, for the first time since it was founded. Earnings are forecast to grow by 32% per year. Short and long-term liabilities can be covered by short-term assets. Fundamentally Tesla seems to be a strong company, but the giant P/E ratio makes investors feel scared about the future of the stock price. On the daily chart, the descending triangle has occurred. Moreover, the price “retested” this triangle from the top twice, which means the pattern is strong enough. The closest resistance is $700, which is a strong psychological level. If the price breaks this level, it will fly up to $770 shortly.

GM

General Motors’s earnings grew by 90,6% over the past year. Moreover, earnings are expected to grow by 8.15% per year in the future. GM’s current net profit margins (7.3%) are higher than last year (3.5%).

It looks like GM stock price follows the S&P500 movement since the market crash in March 2020. After the price dropped on Monday, July 19, it shows decent growth. If it breaks the resistance at $58, which is the cross point of 50 and 100-day moving averages, it will have a chance to renew the historical maximum, overwise, it will go down at least to the 200-day moving average at the price range between $51 and $52.

Ford

Company’s earnings are expected to grow 17.3% yearly. Ford stock looks to be undervalued based on the predictions of future cash flows. It has a good PE ratio (13.9x) compared to the US Auto industry average (23.9x), which makes Ford an attractive company for investors.

As well as GM’s, Ford’s price will try to break through the 50-day moving average. In the positive scenario, the price will have a chance to fly up to $16 resistance. On the flip side, it will try to break the 100-day moving average again and go down to the $11.5 price level if it does.

Reference: Electric vehicles: infinite potential. FBS nalytic news

[MartinWill]

What will happen?

The European Central Bank will present the monetary policy statement on June 22. It is the primary tool the ECB uses to communicate with investors about its monetary policy. It contains the outcome of the bank’s decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced it. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions. The ECB usually changes the statement slightly at each release. These changes affect the strength of the European currency.

Technical analyses

EUR/USD has formed the descending channel with divergences on RSI and MACD oscillators. This fact gives us the signal that correction is about to happen. If the ECB is less dovish than expected, EUR/USD will break the upper line of the channel and head towards the 100-period moving average, which is approximately 1.183. The next target, in this case, will be 1.188.

On the flip side, the downtrend will continue if traders get another confirmation that the ECB will do more monetary stimulus than the Fed. The price might drop to the support line at 1.175 and even lower at the bottom line of the channel at approximately 1.173.

Reference: FBS (22.07.2021) How will ECB drive EUR? FBS analytic news.

[MartinWill]

What happened?

Brent returned to the rising channel on Wednesday by gaining 4% during the trading session. Investors are still looking towards risk assets despite data showing an unexpected rise in US oil inventories.

The fall was caused by the deal between members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC. The organization decided to raise supply by 400,000 barrels a day from August to December 2021. Investors were also scared about the new COVID Delta strain.

Oil price keeps growing, despite the fact that the US crude stockpiles went up for the first time since May. Investors are positive about the future as they are sure that the demand will exceed supply during 2021.

At the moment, the price is trying to break $73.3 resistance. It is an intersection of 100 and 200 period moving averages, also it is 23.6 Fibonacci level. On the RSI oscillator, the downtrend has been broken, which means bulls still have enough power to push Brent higher.

In the short term: If the price breaks $73.3 resistance, it will shortly reach the 74-74.5$ range. Otherwise, it might test the 50-period moving average at the level of 72.3 before the upcoming raise.

In the long-term: As the price breaks the $73.3 resistance level, it will head towards the top line of the rising channel with a target range between $77.3-$77.7.

Reference: FBS (23.07.2021) Brent: future is stil sunny. FBS analytic news.

[MartinWill]

What will happen?

FOMC statement will be announced at 21:00 MT (GMT+3) on Wednesday, July 27. In the previous article, we have already mentioned the importance of this event. Analysts and traders will closely follow this meeting since the Federal Reserve statement about interest rates might make a huge effect on markets.

The must-watch comment is the one on tapering. This is what will determine whether gold rallies or sells off after the Fed meeting. And with growing concerns that the US economy will slow in the second half of the year, tapering might no longer be as urgent as it seemed just a few weeks ago.

If the Federal Reserve gives any kind of signals about stimulus tapering, it will put a negative effect on gold. On the contrary, if there are no sings of tapering, gold will get a boost.

Technical analyses

The price is consolidating under the 200-period moving average. RSI oscillator got close to the buying zone. MACD shows that the bearish trend got weaker since June.

Dovish FOMC statement could help gold to break the 200-period moving average, which is highly important resistance. After the break, the price will have lots of space above. Targets will be $1830 and $1877, which are 38.2 and 50.0 Fibonacci levels respectively.

On the flip side, if FOMC gives signals about stimulus tapering, the price will drop and test 23.6 and 0.0 Fibonacci levels, which are $1772 and $1680 respectively.

Reference: FBS (27.07.2021) Gold: FOMC meeting will clarify the future. Fbs analytic news.

[MartinWill]

USD/JPY declined further during yesterday’s trading, reaching as low as 109.36, while our short signal from 110.20 is still active and is giving us over 80 pips. Technical indicators are still suggesting further declines ahead. However, another dead cat bounce could be seen at the final session of the week, which is also the last session in July. Therefore, it is wise to take our profit and/or close some of the positions and move the Stop Loss lower by 35 pips, this is only if you decide to hold the trade until next week. Otherwise, +80 pips on one single trade aren’t bad. I’m trying not to be greedy.

Reference: FBS (30.07.2021) USD/JPY Take your profits. FBS analytoc news.

[MartinWill]

The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the current policy unchanged as widely expected. However, and against all odds, the bank took the first steps toward winding back emergency monetary stimulus for an economy that’s exceeded forecasts. The BRA made this move even though many saw the bank hinting for a possible increase in asset purchases amid partial lockdown in parts of the county due to the high rate of covid19 cases. Yet, the plan to taper by 1B in September could be a message that the RBA is seeing some inflation pressure on the horizon. In the meantime, AUD/USD is still in a retracement mode, which may target 0.7470 and 0.7530’s before the downside trend resumes. Therefore, I would long some AUD/USD around here 0.7380’s with a stop at today’s low only.

Reference: FBS (03.08.2021) RBA sticks to tapering plan. FBS analytic news.

[MartinWill]

GBP/USD is currently trading within a new selling zone on both short and medium-term charts. The zone stands between 1.3915 and 1.3990 which represents its 50% and 61.8% of the recent selloff from June 1st top to July 20th bottom. This area remains solid since last week, while we wait for the Bank of England’s decision later today. Yet, it would still be worth it to risk a short position with a stop above 1.4020, especially after the pair failed to break above its 100 and 50-day MA’s yesterday , while the technical indicators remain around the 50 mid-point (RSI). On the downside view, the first initial target would be 1.38 which could be seen later today, especially if the BoE decides to avoid tapering discussions.

Reference: FBS (05.08.2021) GBP/USD Selling Zone! FBS analytic zone.

[MartinWill]

What is happening?

The Senate of the US has voted for an amendment to President Biden’s infrastructure bill. The Senate allows for 30 hours of debate following a vote. This means that the amendment can be debated up until Tuesday morning, after which it would be signed into law.

Senate deliberations continued over the weekend over a $1 trillion infrastructure bill, with a particular focus on how the bill could impact the world of cryptocurrency. The bill includes a tax provision that outlines plans to raise about $28 billion for that $1 trillion package through taxes from crypto transactions. The bill identifies a “broker” as anyone “responsible for and regularly providing any service effectuating transfers of digital assets on behalf of another person,” and anyone thus identified would be subject to tax reporting requirements.

Cryptocurrency investors are unhappy with the new tax provision. Not only it defines miners and cryptocurrency wallet makers as brokers, but it also obliges companies to report information about individuals even if they are not customers. Passing the bill will have a bloody impact on the cryptocurrency market, as well as on all companies somehow connected to it.

More on Coinbase

Coinbase now supports Apple Pay when buying cryptocurrency, meaning that users can buy with debit cards that are linked to Apple’s system. Coinbase is the first crypto exchange to offer instant transactions via Real-Time Payments (RTP), enabling customers in the U.S. with linked bank accounts to instantly and securely cash out up to $100,000 per transaction.

It is important to notice that Coinbase makes the most of its profit in the most volatile markets, due to increased trading volumes and therefore increased amount of fees collected. Nevertheless, Coinbase stock correlation with Bitcoin price is hard to underestimate. Such an effect is caused by the nature of Coinbase as a cryptocurrency exchange and the majority opinion that everything somehow linked to crypto needs to correlate with Bitcoin price movements.

Technical analysis

Right now, Coinbase is breaking through resistance lines, after forming a “triple bottom” reversal pattern. RSI is also looking quite bullish. If the news about the infrastructure bill won’t crash the price, the next resistance line will be at $300, a round number, and a Fibonacci expansion 161.8 line. Otherwise, there is a big support area between $250 and $235.Bitcoin is moving in a channel, that has been already broken once. RSI has formed a bearish divergence, so it’s dangerous to open a long position now. In case of a price falling, the main support area is $40000-$39000.

Reference: FBS (09.08.2021) How does new infraestructure bill affect coinbase? FBS analytic news.

[MartinWill]

Current news:

1. Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely deliver up to two interest rate hikes before the end of the year.
2. Risk-off flows strengthening in the NZD/USD pair.
3. Chinese economic outlook downgrade, inflation causing concern.

The risk-sensitive New Zealand Dollar weakened overnight as global concerns over the highly transmissible Delta Covid variant weighed on sentiment. The US Dollar is also weighing on NZD as rate hike bets rise following last week’s NFP report. Moreover, Goldman Sachs downgraded its growth forecast for China. Analysts at the bank see Covid-induced lockdowns and social distancing measures dragging on spending and consumption.

Why is it important?

Foreign exchange markets are presently focused on central bank interest rate normalization, favoring the currencies belonging to those central banks which will lead the pack. July 14, 2021, RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) said it will reduce monetary stimulus by ceasing quantitative easing. It was the first sign of a future interest-rate increase. Shortly after, New Zealand’s unemployment rate was released, with actual results being less-than-expected by as much as 0.4% (4% vs. 4.4%, this is a good sign to an overall economic situation).

The labor market report is the latest sign that the economy is growing faster than its capacity, and that the Reserve Bank could start to raise the official cash rate to keep a lid on price pressures. Annual inflation surged to 3.3% in the second quarter, breaching the central bank’s 1-3% target range.

If RBNZ continues normalizing interest rates by raising them, we would expect strong fundamental support for the New Zealand Dollar. August 18, RBNZ will release several essential market reports. Among them are the Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement, and Rate Statement. Considering the facts given, we’re expecting rate hikes as well as NZD strengthening against other currencies.

However, while the Chinese economy is vital to global growth and capital markets, New Zealand is particularly susceptible due to its economic and trade proximity. Covid related risks are also present, although the market participants ignored Delta’s initial spread. Make sure to check our Economic Calendar regularly!

Technical analysis:

Looking at the NZD/USD live chart we can see a support line at 0.690 and we have a resistance between 0.705 and 0.710, where the “death cross” bearish pattern has emerged.Considering the newfound pessimism for the economic outlook in China, the New Zealand Dollar may remain capped near current levels. Still, NZD bulls may be able to take advantage of the situation. The Australian Dollar typically displays a higher correlation with China’s economy, which can open the door for AUD/NZD to underperform.Currently, AUD/NZD pair has a support line at 1.04594 and resistance at 1.10595, right at 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level.

Reference: FBS (10.08.2021) NZD is expiriencing challenges with forecast. FBS analytic news.

[MartinWill]

EURUSD declined slightly at the beginning of yesterday’s trading, reaching as low as 1.1705 right before the US data. The pair then bounced off that support all the way to 1.1750’s, leading our long position to be in profit once again. In the meantime, we maintain the stop at 1.1690 ahead of today’s session. The current signal comes as a short-term play after the Euro declined for 8 straight sessions. At the same time, if the pair managed to break above 1.1750 today, I would move my stop to the entry in order to protect the position from any possible loss.

Reference: FBS (12.08.2021) EURUSD Trade update. FBS analytic news.

[MartinWill]

Gold managed to recover over 50% of its flash crash that occurred at the beginning of this week. After stabilizing above 1725, we issued a long signal at 1730 two days ago, and gold managed to rise all the way to 1759 until this report is released. In the meantime, it would be wise to move the stop to our entry to protect our position from any possible loss, while a weekly close above 1750 and preferably above 1760 would be another bullish sign not only on the short-term but on the medium-term as well.

Reference: FBS (13.08.2021) Gold Trying to break higher. FBS analytic news.

[MartinWill]

The US Dollar soared higher since the beginning of the Asian session until this report is released. Such rally comes as a reason of the Asian and the European markets to the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which showed that the Fed is somehow preparing the markets for QE tapering before the end of this year, which could actually happen in December’s meeting.

However, the Fed also stressed that they are still watching Covid19-Delta developments in the US, as infection rate is still increasing, and if things for even worse, the fed might delay such decision. Yet, the market is not concerned about delta yet, they are now concerned about lower liquidity by the Fed and other central banks, and therefore we are seeing a broad selloff across the board.

In the meantime, I would stand aside and watch how the US market will react today, as the current move might be a bit excessive, as the info that we got from the meeting minutes is not something new. But such move, could be a new opportunity for those who likes swing trades.

As for today, I will be watching 93.50 resistance area as it won’t be easy to be broken. Another downside retracement is highly possible, which may retest the 93.0 support area, before the upside trend resumes.

Reference: FBS (19.08.2021) USD Skyrocketing. FBS analytic news.

[MartinWill]

Throughout last week’s trading, gold traded within a tight range, but it also managed to hold well above its 1775 support area until the end of the week, while the technical indicators has improved over the past few days, including the RSI indicator, which is now trading above the 50 mid-point and broke its daily down trendline, which support our medium-term long positions, the one issued few weeks ago at 1730. With that being said, it would be wise to move our stop loss for this week to 1765 USD/Oz to protect some of the profit, while further stabilization above 1775 may clear the way for another test of 1800 USD/Oz in the coming days.

Reference: FBS (23.08.2021) Gold holding well above 1775. FBS analytic news.

[MartinWill]

The US Dollar Index failed to sustain its recent gains above its 50 DAY MA, the index declined back yesterday with higher trading volume, while all eyes are on the PPI data today after mixed economic releases over the past few days and last week’s jobs report. In the meantime, the technical indicators are still suggesting further declines ahead, with a possibility to retest last week’s lows round 91.80, while any short position should be attached with a stop loss not to exceed this week’s high.

Reference: FBS (10.09.2021) USD downside retracement resumes. FBS analytic news.