#USD/JPY
The US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen during Asian trading. Today, at 2:30 pm, the US will announce information on the number of applications to help new unemployed people, as well as productivity outside agriculture and labor costs, which can be reflected in the exchange rate of this currency pair. During the Asian trade, the US dollar weakened against the yen by 0.16%.
#OIL
The price of crude oil declined during Asian trade. Although the US Petroleum Institute showed less than expected stock last night, which should positively influence the price of this fuel, the accession of the new hurricane Irma to the eastern coast of the United States affected the weakening of crude oil prices. At 17:00 hours in the United States, a report from the government of this country on crude oil stocks will be published, which can be further reflected in this energy product. During the Asian trade, the price of crude oil declined by 0.37%.
EUR/USD
During his ECB Press Conference, President Draghi said that growth forecasts for the Eurozone will keep on the good pace though inflation is doing worse than expected. Growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).
U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI worse than expected.
Last Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was disappointing. German and Spanish Retail Sales were also worse than expected. German Employment figures in stall and Italian Unemployment rate rises.
German Manufacturing PMI better than expected but German ZEW Economic Sentiment again worse than the expectations (for the 4th time in a row): the ZEW research institute said its monthly survey showed its economic sentiment index fell to 10.0, the weakest reading since October.
In Europe only CPI ticked up.
On the other hand, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI better than expected (at the highest since November 2014), U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change way better than expected and U.S. GDP surprisingly relevantly better than expected. Also U.S. CB Consumer Confidence was higher than expected (at its highest since March).
We are facing two possible scenarios. 1) Fake breakout of both 1.199 and 1.19 are likely to be re-absorbed (we still think this as the most probable). 2) 1.20 area will be definitely violated once again. Weak Jobs Report, North Korea Crisis, Hurricanes and delayed Trumponomics are weighing on USD outlook but Draghi conference anticipated upcoming controls against the risk of an overbought EUR.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1990 (fake breakout)
2nd Resistance: 1.2080
1st Support: 1.1920
2nd Support: 1.1856
EUR
Recent Facts:
7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections
12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected
16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected
17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected
23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected
31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected
1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected
8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program
13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected
13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected
23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected
26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected
29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected
30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected
3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected
18th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected
24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Services PMI
Worse than Expected
28th of July, German CPI
Better than Expected
31st of July, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) + Unemployment Rate
Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) as Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected
1st of August, German Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Worse than Expected
15th of August, German GDP (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected
17th of August, Eurozone CPI
As Expected
22nd of August, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected
23rd of August, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
25th of August, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected
31st of August, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Worse than Expected, CPI Better than Expected
1st of September, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).
USD
Recent Facts:
13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected
14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)
23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected
28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected
29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected
3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019
6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected
7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected
13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected
14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected
20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected
25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected
27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected
28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected
1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected
2nd of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Worse than Expected
3rd of August, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)
4th of August, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Job Market Better than Expected
8th of August, Job Openings
Better than Expected
10th of August, PPI
Worse than Expected
11th of August, U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected
15th of August, U.S. Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected
23rd of August, Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales
Worse than Expected
29th of August, CB Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected
30th of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + GDP
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected, GDP relevantly better than expected
1st of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment rate
Worse than Expected
1st of September, ISM Manufacturing
Better than Expected
6th of September, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
GBP/USD
Eyes on today UK Manufacturing Production.
UK Services PMI worse than expected. Last UK Construction PMI also worse than expected while UK Manufacturing PMI was better than expected.
Longer than 1 year ago, Brexit happened and now London is starting to do an analysis about Brexit effects and outcome.
The last resort for the UK, is in the next elections in Germany (they hope a surprise will occur in Germany): without Merkel, London will probably rely on softer Eurozone policies regarding the UK. But this possibility is not given for granted either.
We think that GBP is heavily overbought and 1.3099 fake breakout will be re-absorbed with downside target in area 1.304. If the upward overshooting will continue, then next stop is definitely 1.32 Resistance.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3099 (fake breakout)
2nd Resistance: 1.3203
1st Support: 1.3040
2nd Support: 1.2850
GBP
Recent Facts:
11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount
16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected
17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected
18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected
1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected
2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)
5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected
8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.
9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected
13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected
14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected
15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,
20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.
30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account
3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected
5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected
7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
12th of July, UK Job Market
Better than Expected
18th of July, CPI
Worse than Expected
20th of July, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected
26th of July, UK GDP release (Preliminary)
As Expected
1st of August, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
2nd of August, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)
3rd of August, Services PMI
Better than Expected
10th of August, Manufacturing Production
As Expected
15th of August, UK CPI
Worse than Expected
16th of August, UK Job Market
Better than Expected
17th of August, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
24th of August, GDP (Preliminary release)
UK GDP (Preliminary release) as expected but Business Investment (Preliminary release) Worse than Expected
1st of September, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
4th of September, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
5th of September, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
Eyes on today release: Manufacturing Production
USD
Recent Facts:
13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected
14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)
23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected
28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected
29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected
3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019
6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected
7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected
13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected
14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected
20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected
25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected
27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected
28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected
1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected
2nd of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Worse than Expected
3rd of August, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)
4th of August, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Job Market Better than Expected
8th of August, Job Openings
Better than Expected
10th of August, PPI
Worse than Expected
11th of August, U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected
15th of August, U.S. Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected
23rd of August, Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales
Worse than Expected
29th of August, CB Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected
30th of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + GDP
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected, GDP relevantly better than expected
1st of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment rate
Worse than Expected
1st of September, ISM Manufacturing
Better than Expected
6th of September, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
AUD/USD
Australia reported home loans data for July jumped 2.9%, compared with a 1.0% gain seen. But Trade Balance and Retail Sales worse than expected, and GDP on the downbeat too.
Last Australian Manufacturing Index was better than expected and private new capital expenditure for the second quarter jumped 0.8%, well above a 0.3% gain seen. Also Building Approvals and Construction Work Done better than expected.
On the other hand, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI better than expected (at the highest since November 2014), U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change way better than expected and U.S. GDP surprisingly relevantly better than expected.
AUDUSD temporarily rising up because of USD weakness rather than because of AUD strength.
Breakout of 0.783 on the downside is postponed and this means that a definitive breakout of 0.803 area has some chances to happen. As we wrote previously, there is room up over 0.804 area until 0.81 area.
Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.8034
2nd Resistance: 0.8130
1st Support: 0.7980
2nd Support: 0.7916
AUD
Recent Facts:
4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected
9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected
24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected
24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative
25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018
30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected
1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected
6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened
7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected
15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)
29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected
4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%
6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected
11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected
12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected
20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected
25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected
3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected
4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected
9th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
Worse than Expected
17th of August, Employment Change
Better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative
30th of August, Australia Building Approvals + Construction Work Done
Better than Expected
1st of September, AIG Manufacturing Index
Better than Expected
6th of September, Australia GDP
Worse than Expected
7th of September, Trade Balance + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected
14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)
23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected
28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected
29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected
3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019
6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected
7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected
13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected
14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected
20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected
25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected
27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected
28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected
1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected
2nd of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Worse than Expected
3rd of August, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)
4th of August, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Job Market Better than Expected
8th of August, Job Openings
Better than Expected
10th of August, PPI
Worse than Expected
11th of August, U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected
15th of August, U.S. Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected
23rd of August, Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales
Worse than Expected
29th of August, CB Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected
30th of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + GDP
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected, GDP relevantly better than expected
1st of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment rate
Worse than Expected
1st of September, ISM Manufacturing
Better than Expected
6th of September, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
#DAX30
Dax30 rose 0.67% on Thursday. The winner of the day was RWE St, which rose 3.81%. This morning, data on Germany’s trade exchange confirmed a lower surplus of expectations in July, with lower exports and imports.
#USD/JPY
During the Asian trade, the Japanese yen strengthened although Japan’s GDP growth has failed. The dollar is linearly weak against all the more important currencies, as the market finds that the third increase in the Fed’s interest rate this year is unlikely to occur. At around 08:25, this currency pair is traded at the level of 107.83 yen per dollar, which at the beginning of the European session makes the yen stronger against the dollar by 0.57%. There are no major economic news and announcements from the United States today.
#CRUDE OIL
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil has risen as the new Hurricane “Irma” is approaching to the southeast of the US. Today, at 19:00 hours, the latest number of oil wells in the United States is expected. During Asian and early European trading, crude oil prices rose slightly from 0.02% and around 8:35 hours were traded for $ 49.09 per barrel.
#DAX30
The German #DAX30 index ended yesterday with a 1.39% session in plus, reaching the highest value since July 2017. The index has gained value since the perception of risk has fallen since the North Korean problem has lost its intensity. However, North Korea’s problem is far from being resolved, given that the UN Security Council last night approved additional sanctions for North Korea. The insurance sector as well as the technology sector, industry and banking supported the strength of the DAX 30 index. Among these good results, Commerzbank AG jumped 3.24%, while Deutsche Bank AG was 2.77% at the end of the session. Siemens AG jumped by 2.77%. Among the worst was Daimler AG which fell by 0.28%. Merck jumped 0.18%, around Prosiebensat jumped by 0.27%.
#Gold
Gold has fallen to its lowest value in the past over a week, below the level of 1330. Demand for gold has dropped significantly since the North Korean problem has lost its intensity. On the other hand, the US dollar used the opportunity and gained value along with the improvement of the sentiment across the stock market. This made additional pressure on the price of gold. However, North Korea’s problem is far from being resolved, given that the UN Security Council last night approved additional sanctions for North Korea. This resolution aims to reduce the import of refined oil to 2 million barrels per year, to ban the export of textiles and to allow countries to freeze cargo of cargo ships whose operators do not approve for open sea inspections. For the following day, the calendar suggests that new job information for Jolts Job Openings could attract investors’ attention. The gold last recorded at the level of 1325.00.
#Oil
Crude oil fell this morning and moved slightly below the level of 48.00. Yesterday, the oil market had an exciting session. First, the price of crude oil fell to the lowest levels in the past over a week. Soon afterwards, the price of oil jumped by 2.7% reaching values above the level of 48.00. Investors were looking for a way to catch Goldman Sachs reports and rumors that the OPEC cartel is preparing to extend an agreement once again to reduce oil production by March 2018. In this report, Goldman Sachs said that demand for oil dropped significantly in September given the results of Harvy and Irma’s hurricanes. However, the price of crude oil was supported by talks by major oil producers. In fact, the Saudi Arabian oil minister reportedly held talks with its counterparts from Venezuela and Kazakhstan on the possibility of extending the current deal on reduced oil production until after March 2018. It is expected that investors will focus on the API report tonight published the most recent data on US oil stocks.
#Dax30
Dax30 rose by 0.23% on Wednesday. The biggest growth was recorded by companies from the food industry, the chemical sector and the services sector. Of the winners, Merck (+ 1.97%) and the losers E.ON (-1.54%) were separated. The volatility index that records the sentiment of the investor regarding the expected volatility in the future period has decreased by 2.95% and is at 12.91 points.
#EUR/USD
The euro has weakened against the US dollar during Asian trade. Today, there are no significant economic news from the Euro zone, while in the USA at 2:30 pm, information about the number of new applications for unemployment assistance and consumer price index (CPI) will be published, which investors expect with special care since information provided by the CPI could indicate Will and when will the next increase in the interest rate in the United States. During the Asian trade, the euro weakened against the US dollar by 0.09%.
#GOLD
The price of gold weakened during Asian trade. The gold price continues to weaken due to the calming of geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula. Today in the United States at 14:30, information on the number of new applications for unemployment assistance and consumer price index (CPI) will be published, which investors expect with special care as information provided by the CPI could indicate if and when the next increase interest rates in the US. During Asian trading, the price of gold declined by 0.12%.
#USDJPY
The US dollar is dormant in relation to the Japanese yen during Asian trading. Today in the United States at 14:30, information on the number of new applications for unemployment assistance and consumer price index (CPI) will be published, which investors expect with special care as information provided by the CPI could indicate if and when the next increase interest rates in the US. During the Asian trade, the dollar strengthened slightly against the Japanese yen by 0.01%.
#Crude Oil
The price of crude oil declined during Asian trade. The price of this fuel is still under negative sentiment due to the rise in crude oil stocks, which was announced yesterday by the US government body. Also, it was announced that in August, the Chinese refiners processed 6.5% more crude oil than in the same period last year, which can also be reflected in crude oil. During Asian trade, the price of crude oil declined by 0.20%.
#GBP/USD
The British pound strengthened against the US dollar during Asian trading. Today, price fluctuations on this currency pair are possible. At 1:00 pm, the Bank of England will announce the interest rate, while in the USA at 2:30 pm, information about the number of new applications for unemployment assistance and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published. During the Asian trading, the pound strengthened against the US dollar by 0.06%.
#EURUSD
During the Asian trade and last night, the euro strengthened against the dollar. This morning, the euro is exchanged for $ 1.1913, which, at the beginning of the European session, shows a gain of 0.05%. At 2:30 pm, retail data are expected in the United States, and at 15:15 on industrial production, as well as the sentiment of the business world and consumers at 16:00.
#GBPUSD
During the Asian trading, the British pound was further strengthened against the dollar. This morning, it is at $ 1.3411 per pound, which means the weakening of the dollar by 0.1%. Yesterday, the Monetary Board of the Bank of England voted at around 7 to 2 to increase the rate, and the general impression of the observers is that in the coming months the first increase in the reference interest rate will continue, which remains at + 0.25% until further notice. At 2:30 pm, retail data will be published in the US, at 15:15 on industrial production, and the sentiment of the business world and consumers at 16:00.
#USDJPY
During Asian trading, the Japanese yen weakened against the dollar despite a new ballistic probe that flew over Japan and fell into the Pacific. This morning, this currency pair is traded at the level of 110.64 yen per dollar, which at the beginning of the European session jen seems to be weaker against the dollar by 0.64%. At 2:30 pm, retail data will be published in the US, at 15:15 on industrial production, and the sentiment of the business world and consumers at 16:00.
#Gold
The price of gold declined during the Asian trade, and it seems that North Korea’s latest missile launch missile did not leave the impression of a safe investment. This morning the price of gold is traded for $ 1330 for a fine ounce .
#Oil
During Asian trade, the price of crude oil remained largely unchanged. Tonight, at 7:00 pm, Baker Hughes’s data on the number of oil wells in the United States is expected. During Asian and early European trading, the price of crude oil dropped from late last night by 0.44% .
#Dax30
Dax30 opened 0.1% lower than yesterdays 12529.57 . The company’s stock Continental which is traded at this index Dax30 rose by 2.1$.
EUR/USD
Forex Analysis EUR/USD; September 18, 2017 | sgtmarkets.com
Eyes on today Eurozone CPI data.
Increasing wages (under solid Employment Change figures) and improving Trade Balance are the latest good news for the EUR.
The greenback regained strength after Paul Ryan (U.S. House of Representatives Speaker) said that a tax plan is set to be released next days and after Trump succeeded to raise the debt ceiling.
On the other hand, last U.S. industrial and manufacturing production unexpectedly fell in August and U.S. producer price inflation increased less than expected. In addition, the U.S. Commerce Department said last retail sales change was surprisingly negative.
During his last ECB Press Conference, President Draghi said that growth forecasts for the Eurozone will keep on the good pace though inflation is doing worse than expected. Growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).
Fake breakout of 1.199 was re-absorbed as we thought very probable. Now, if 1.1856 will be clearly violated then we see room down to the next Support area (1.176). In the opposite case, 1.20 area will be definitely violated and we see room up to 1.21 area.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 1.1990
2nd Resistance: 1.2080
1st Support: 1.1856
2nd Support: 1.1756
GBP/USD
Forex Analysis GBP/USD; September 18, 2017 | sgtmarkets.com
Today BoE Governor Carney is to speak, let’s pay attention to this.
Longer than 1 year ago, Brexit happened and now London is starting to do an analysis about Brexit effects and outcome.
GDP slowed down (it is the Eurozone Slowest growth, even Greece grew more)
High Consumer Price (with freezed wages and salaries, the effect is a widespread social impoverishment)
Hard Brexit was just only a rumor: London is starting to understand that Brexit is a jump into nowhere (especially as far as financial sectors are concerned).
The BoE’s monetary policy committee voted 7-to-2 to leave interest rates at their current record low of 0.25% following its policy meeting, but the bank said in its rate statement that the economy is looking slightly stronger than expected. A majority of officials believe borrowing costs will need to rise in the coming months to bring annual inflation back to its 2% goal. Such a move is likely “over the coming months,” the statement said if the economy performs broadly in line with officials’ expectations.
On the other hand, 5 terroristic attacks in Britain this year and upcoming German elections are undermining the volatile stamina for the GBP bulls.
We think that 1.36 is a definitive very strong Resistance so GBP is overbought now and 1.3460 should be re-tested as GBP/USD current fair value. In the case of upside overshooting continuation, 1.367 Resistance area will probably block the bulls creating a downside correction.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3610
2nd Resistance: 1.3670
1st Support: 1.3460
2nd Support: 1.3362
AUD/USD
Forex Analysis AUD/USD; September 18, 2017 | sgtmarkets.com
Pay attention to RBA Minutes Meeting later today.
Australia reported improved job market and interestingly good home loans data for July, but Trade Balance and Retail Sales worse than expected, and GDP on the downbeat too.
Last Australian Manufacturing Index was better than expected and private new capital expenditure for the second quarter jumped 0.8%, well above a 0.3% gain seen. Also Building Approvals and Construction Work Done better than expected.
On the other hand, last U.S. industrial and manufacturing production unexpectedly fell in August and U.S. producer price inflation increased less than expected. In addition, the U.S. Commerce Department said last retail sales change was surprisingly negative.
In the case of a definitive breakout of 0.803 area, then there is room up over 0.804 until 0.81 area. In the opposite case, a re-test in area 0.798 will lead down to the main Support in area 0.792.
Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Neutral
1st Resistance: 0.8034
2nd Resistance: 0.8130
1st Support: 0.7980
2nd Support: 0.7916
