FX Analysis by SGT Markets

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Eyes on today German Manufacturing PMI and Unemployment Change. Eyes also on U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI.

The U.S. Commerce Department said Friday that gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in the three months to June, which included a boost from consumer spending. That was more than double the 1.2% growth seen in the first quarter. U.S. labor costs rose less than expected in the second quarter, data regarding inflation are lower than expected.
Deepening U.S. political uncertainty also expected to keep the greenback on the defensive. Still, we think USD is oversold.

German CPI better than expected. German Manufacturing PMI and Eurozone both Manufacturing and Services PMI were worse than Expected.

U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence better than expected, both Manufacturing and Services PMI in the U.S.A. were better than expected as well but the Trump administration remains under the cloud of a probe into alleged Russian meddling in the U.S. 2016 presidential election.
On the other hand, ECB remarks appeared to signal a shift towards tapering monetary stimulus, but President Draghi reiterated that any changes to the stimulus program will be “gradual” and “cautious.”

1.1856 strong Resistance. We expect a correction downside to 1.1655.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1756
2nd Resistance: 1.1856
1st Support: 1.1655
2nd Support: 1.1590

EUR

Recent Facts:

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Services PMI
Worse than Expected

28th of July, German CPI
Better than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) + Unemployment Rate
Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) as Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: German Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change

USD

Recent Facts:

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

Eyes on today release: ISM Manufacturing PMI

GBP/USD

The UK is to release data on manufacturing activity today.

There’s no doubt that U.K. growth is slowing with the details of the GDP report showing weakness in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Growth is expected to ease further in the coming months as BREXIT gets underway.

British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. “But we can’t have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself,” he added.
The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

As we already wrote, 1.3203 is an ultimate Resistance and we think unlikely to see price overcome that obstacle in the short-term. 1.3099 Resistance should be reconfirmed as first downside target.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3203
2nd Resistance: 1.3099
1st Support: 1.2978
2nd Support: 1.2830

GBP

Recent Facts:

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of July, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of July, UK GDP release (Preliminary)
As Expected

Eyes on today release: Manufacturing PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

Eyes on today release: ISM Manufacturing PMI

AUD/USD

Eyes on today Australia Trade Balance release.

The Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady at a record low 1.5% as expected, citing the potential impact of a stronger Aussie dollar.

Oil climbed surging to an eight-week high, after the EIA reported that US stockpiles fell to levels which have not been seen since the start of the year. Investors were hoping for an industry drawdown, and both the commodity and the AUD reflected that in their value.
The U.S. Federal Reserve statement noted that interest rates are likely to remain low for “some time”, highlighting that increases in its benchmark rate will depend on incoming economic data.
U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence better than expected, both Manufacturing and Services PMI in the U.S.A. were better than expected as well.

On the other hand, the dollar fell amid expanding investigations into allegations that Russia meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (investors are afraid that would sidetrack the implementation of Trump’s fiscal and economic policies) and after repeated failure of Trumps’s healthcare bill, not able to garner enough votes for replacing Obamacare.

0.8034 very strong Resistance. We confirm that 0.783 area will have to be retested, and this represents our first target.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7916
2nd Resistance: 0.8034
1st Support: 0.7828
2nd Support: 0.7735

AUD

Recent Facts:

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Trade Balance

USD

Recent Facts:

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

Eyes on today release: ISM Manufacturing PMI

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Eyes on U.S. Job Market (ADP Nonfarm Employment Change).

German Manufacturing PMI and German Unemployment Change on the downbeat.
German CPI better than expected. German Manufacturing PMI and Eurozone both Manufacturing and Services PMI were worse than Expected.

The U.S. Commerce Department said Friday that gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in the three months to June, which included a boost from consumer spending. That was more than double the 1.2% growth seen in the first quarter. U.S. labor costs rose less than expected in the second quarter, data regarding inflation are lower than expected.
Deepening U.S. political uncertainty also expected to keep the greenback on the defensive. Still, we think USD is oversold.

U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence better than expected, both Manufacturing and Services PMI in the U.S.A. were better than expected as well but the Trump administration remains under the cloud of a probe into alleged Russian meddling in the U.S. 2016 presidential election.
On the other hand, ECB remarks appeared to signal a shift towards tapering monetary stimulus, but President Draghi reiterated that any changes to the stimulus program will be “gradual” and “cautious.”

1.1856 strong Resistance. We expect a correction downside to 1.1655.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1756
2nd Resistance: 1.1856
1st Support: 1.1655
2nd Support: 1.1590

EUR

Recent Facts:

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Services PMI
Worse than Expected

28th of July, German CPI
Better than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) + Unemployment Rate
Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) as Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

GBP/USD

Eyes on today UK Construction PMI.

UK manufacturing activity on the upbeat.

There’s no doubt that U.K. growth is slowing with the details of the GDP report showing weakness in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Growth is expected to ease further in the coming months as BREXIT gets underway.

British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. “But we can’t have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself,” he added.
The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

As we already wrote, 1.3203 is an ultimate Resistance and we think unlikely to see price overcome that obstacle in the short-term. 1.3099 Resistance should be reconfirmed as first downside target.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3203
2nd Resistance: 1.3099
1st Support: 1.2978
2nd Support: 1.2830

GBP

Recent Facts:

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of July, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of July, UK GDP release (Preliminary)
As Expected

1st of August, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

Eyes on today release: Construction PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

AUD/USD

Eyes on today Australia Trade Balance.

Australia reported building approvals for June jumped 10.9%, far outpacing a 1.5% gain seen month-on-month.

Oil climbed surging to an eight-week high, after the EIA reported that US stockpiles fell to levels which have not been seen since the start of the year. Investors were hoping for an industry drawdown, and both the commodity and the AUD reflected that in their value.

The U.S. Federal Reserve statement noted that interest rates are likely to remain low for “some time”, highlighting that increases in its benchmark rate will depend on incoming economic data.
U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence better than expected, both Manufacturing and Services PMI in the U.S.A. were better than expected as well. Last U.S. GDP release pared expectations.

On the other hand, the dollar fell amid expanding investigations into allegations that Russia meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (investors are afraid that would sidetrack the implementation of Trump’s fiscal and economic policies) and after repeated failure of Trumps’s healthcare bill, not able to garner enough votes for replacing Obamacare.

0.8034 very strong Resistance. We confirm that 0.783 area will have to be retested, and this represents our first target.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7916
2nd Resistance: 0.8034
1st Support: 0.7828
2nd Support: 0.7735

AUD

Recent Facts:

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

2nd of August, Trade Balance
…

USD

Recent Facts:

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change again worse than expected. Ahead of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, whether there will be a tough downside correction on EUR/USD or another bullish breakout is linked to the next news outcome.

Spanish Unemployment Change worse than expected. German Manufacturing PMI and German Unemployment Change on the downbeat too.

Deepening U.S. political uncertainty keeps the greenback on the defensive because the Trump administration remains under the cloud of a probe into alleged Russian meddling in the U.S. 2016 presidential election. Still, we think USD is oversold.

U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence better than expected, both Manufacturing and Services PMI in the U.S.A. were better than expected as well.

On the other hand, ECB remarks appeared to signal a shift towards tapering monetary stimulus, but President Draghi reiterated that any changes to the stimulus program will be “gradual” and “cautious.”

As we wrote previously, 1.1856 is a strong Resistance and it is working. We expect first a re-test back to 0.1756, then a correction down to 1.1655. In the case of bad news from the U.S., we can see EUR/USD conquering 1.19 area in an overshooting bullish enthusiasm.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1756
2nd Resistance: 1.1856
1st Support: 1.1655
2nd Support: 1.1590

EUR

Recent Facts:

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Services PMI
Worse than Expected

28th of July, German CPI
Better than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) + Unemployment Rate
Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) as Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

GBP/USD

UK Construction PMI dropped at the lowest since October 2016. This means that, in the case of disappointing Services PMI from today release, GBP will start an important correction below 1.30 area. Important news upcoming from the U.S. too (job market).

GBP gained amid speculations bets on optimistic soft-BREXIT resolutions. But there’s no doubt that U.K. growth is slowing with the details of the GDP report showing weakness in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Growth is expected to ease further in the coming months as BREXIT gets underway. In our opinion, GBP now results in overbought setup.

British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. “But we can’t have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself,” he added.
The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

As we wrote, 1.3203 is an ultimate Resistance and we think unlikely to see price overcome that obstacle unless there will be bad data from the U.S. job market. 1.3099 Resistance should be reconfirmed as first downside target. In the case of bad news from the U.S., eyes on 1.33 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3203
2nd Resistance: 1.3099
1st Support: 1.2978
2nd Support: 1.2830

GBP

Recent Facts:

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of July, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of July, UK GDP release (Preliminary)
As Expected

1st of August, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of August, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)

Eyes on today release: Services PMI

USD

Recent Facts:

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

AUD/USD

Eyes on today RBA Monetary Statement and Australia Retail Sales.

Australia Trade Balance again on the downbeat. U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change worse than expected.

Australia reported building approvals for June jumped 10.9%, far outpacing a 1.5% gain seen month-on-month.

The U.S. Federal Reserve statement noted that interest rates are likely to remain low for “some time”, highlighting that increases in its benchmark rate will depend on incoming economic data.
U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence better than expected, both Manufacturing and Services PMI in the U.S.A. were better than expected as well. Last U.S. GDP release pared expectations.

On the other hand, the dollar fell amid expanding investigations into allegations that Russia meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (investors are afraid that would sidetrack the implementation of Trump’s fiscal and economic policies) and after repeated failure of Trumps’s healthcare bill, not able to garner enough votes for replacing Obamacare.

As we wrote previously, 0.8034 is very strong Resistance and it worked pushing price back to 0.7916 again. We confirm that 0.783 area will have to be retested, and this represents our first target.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7916
2nd Resistance: 0.8034
1st Support: 0.7828
2nd Support: 0.7735

AUD

Recent Facts:

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, RBA Monetary Statement + Australia Retail Sales
…

USD

Recent Facts:

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Worse than Expected

Eyes on today release: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change again worse than expected. ISM Non-Manufacturing worse than expected too.
Eyes on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, whether there will be a tough downside correction on EUR/USD or another bullish breakout is linked to next fundamental outcome.

Spanish Unemployment Change worse than expected. German Manufacturing PMI and German Unemployment Change on the downbeat too.

Deepening U.S. political uncertainty keeps the greenback on the defensive because the Trump administration remains under the cloud of a probe into alleged Russian meddling in the U.S. 2016 presidential election. Still, we think USD is oversold.

On the other hand, ECB remarks appeared to signal a shift towards tapering monetary stimulus, but President Draghi reiterated that any changes to the stimulus program will be “gradual” and “cautious.”

As we wrote previously, 1.1856 is a strong Resistance and it is working. We expect first a re-test back to 0.1756, then a correction down to 1.1655. In the case of bad news from the U.S., we can see EUR/USD conquering 1.19 area in an overshooting bullish enthusiasm.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1756
2nd Resistance: 1.1856
1st Support: 1.1655
2nd Support: 1.1590

EUR

Recent Facts:

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Services PMI
Worse than Expected

28th of July, German CPI
Better than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) + Unemployment Rate
Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) as Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)

Eyes on today release: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate

GBP/USD

Eyes on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls.

Sterling is falling after the Bank of England left interest rates on hold at record lows and cut its economic growth forecast for this year and next. UK Services PMI index increased more than expected but last UK Construction PMI dropped at the lowest since October 2016.

No doubt that U.K. growth is slowing with the details of the GDP report showing weakness in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Growth is expected to ease further in the coming months as BREXIT gets underway.

British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. “But we can’t have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself,” he added.
The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

As we wrote, 1.3203 is an ultimate Resistance and we think unlikely to see price overcome that obstacle unless there will be bad data from the U.S. job market. 1.3099 Resistance should be reconfirmed as first downside target. In the case of bad news from the U.S., eyes on 1.33 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.3203
2nd Resistance: 1.3099
1st Support: 1.2978
2nd Support: 1.2830

GBP

Recent Facts:

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of July, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of July, UK GDP release (Preliminary)
As Expected

1st of August, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of August, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)

3rd of August, Services PMI
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)

Eyes on today release: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate

AUD/USD

Eyes on today RBA Monetary Statement and Australia Retail Sales.

Australia Trade Balance again on the downbeat. U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change worse than expected.

Australia reported building approvals for June jumped 10.9%, far outpacing a 1.5% gain seen month-on-month.

The U.S. Federal Reserve statement noted that interest rates are likely to remain low for “some time”, highlighting that increases in its benchmark rate will depend on incoming economic data.
U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence better than expected, both Manufacturing and Services PMI in the U.S.A. were better than expected as well. Last U.S. GDP release pared expectations.

On the other hand, the dollar fell amid expanding investigations into allegations that Russia meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (investors are afraid that would sidetrack the implementation of Trump’s fiscal and economic policies) and after repeated failure of Trumps’s healthcare bill, not able to garner enough votes for replacing Obamacare.

As we wrote previously, 0.8034 is very strong Resistance and it worked pushing price back to 0.7916 again. We confirm that 0.783 area will have to be retested, and this represents our first target.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7916
2nd Resistance: 0.8034
1st Support: 0.7828
2nd Support: 0.7735

AUD

Recent Facts:

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, RBA Monetary Statement + Australia Retail Sales
…

USD

Recent Facts:

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)

Eyes on today release: Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate

https://sgtmarkets.com/en

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected.
Spanish Unemployment Change worse than expected. German Manufacturing PMI and German Unemployment Change on the downbeat too.

Deepening U.S. political uncertainty keeps the greenback on the defensive because the Trump administration remains under the cloud of a probe into alleged Russian meddling in the U.S. 2016 presidential election. Still, we think USD is oversold.

On the other hand, ECB remarks appeared to signal a shift towards tapering monetary stimulus, but President Draghi reiterated that any changes to the stimulus program will be “gradual” and “cautious.”

As we wrote previously, 1.1856 is a strong Resistance and it is working. We expected first a re-test back to 0.1756, and it happened. Now eyes on a probable correction down to 1.1655.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1756
2nd Resistance: 1.1856
1st Support: 1.1655
2nd Support: 1.1590

EUR

Recent Facts:

27th of April, ECB Interest Rate decision + ECB Press Conference
Unchanged, eyes on next Inflation data

28th of April, CPI (Preliminary)
Higher than Expected

2nd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
As Expected

3rd of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone GDP (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected (for the 5th time in a row)
Eurozone GDP (Preliminary) As Expected

7th of May, French Elections
Centrist pro-EU Macron Won French Elections

12th of May, German GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

16th of May, Eurozone GDP (Preliminary release) + Trade Balance + ZEW Economic Sentiment
Better than Expected

17th of May, Eurozone CPI
As Expected

23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of May, German CPI (Preliminary release)
Worse than Expected

31st of May, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
German Unemployment Change better than Expected (for the 8th time in a row), Eurozone CPI Worse than Expected

1st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

8th of June, GDP, Interest Rate Decision + ECB Press Conference
GDP Better than Expected, ECB moving closer to an exit from its stimulus program

13th of June, French Non-Farm Payrolls
Better than Expected

13th of June, German Zew Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

23rd of June,
German Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
German Services PMI Worse than Expected
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Better than Expected
Eurozone Services PMI Worse than Expected

26th of June, German Ifo Business Climate
Better than Expected

29th of June, German CPI
Better than Expected

30th of June, German Unemployment Change + Eurozone CPI
German Unemployment Change Better than Expected, Eurozone CPI higher than Expected

3rd of July, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, French Services PMI + German Services PMI + Eurozone Retail Sales
Better than Expected

18th of July, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Worse than Expected

24th of July, German Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Manufacturing PMI + Eurozone Services PMI
Worse than Expected

28th of July, German CPI
Better than Expected

31st of July, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) + Unemployment Rate
Eurozone CPI (Preliminary) as Expected, Unemployment Rate Better than Expected

1st of August, German Manufacturing PMI + Unemployment Change
Worse than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)

4th of August, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Job Market Better than Expected

GBP/USD

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected.

Sterling is falling after the Bank of England left interest rates on hold at record lows and cut its economic growth forecast for this year and next. UK Services PMI index increased more than expected but last UK Construction PMI dropped at the lowest since October 2016.

No doubt that U.K. growth is slowing with the details of the GDP report showing weakness in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Growth is expected to ease further in the coming months as BREXIT gets underway.

British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. “But we can’t have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself,” he added.
The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

As we wrote, 1.3203 is an ultimate Resistance capable to turn price violently down and our first target in area 1.3099 has been abundantly broken down. The direction is now towards our first Support in area 1.2978.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.3203
2nd Resistance: 1.3099
1st Support: 1.2978
2nd Support: 1.2830

GBP

Recent Facts:

11th of May, UK Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance + BoE Interest Rate Decision
Manufacturing Production + Trade Balance Worse than Expected
The Bank of England made no changes to monetary policy but warned that living standards will fall this year as the headwinds from Brexit mount

16th of May, UK CPI (Inflation data)
Higher than Expected

17th of May, UK Job Market
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

25th of May, GDP (Preliminary)
Worse than Expected

1st of June, UK Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Better than Expected

2nd of June, Construction PMI
Better than Expected (Highest level since February 2016)

5th of June, UK Services PMI
Worse than Expected

8th of June, UK General Elections
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in a general election, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations.

9th of June, industrial production + manufacturing production
Worse than Expected

13th of June, UK CPI
Higher than Expected

14th of June, UK Job Market
Claimant Count Change Better than Expected, Average Earnings Index Worse than Expected

15th of June, Retail Sales
Retail Sales Worse than Expected,

20th of June, BoE Gov Carney Speech
Carney ruled out imminent rate hikes, warning of weak wage growth and a likely hit to incomes as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

30th of June, GDP
UK GDP as Expected, with improving Current Account

3rd of July, UK Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

4th of July, Construction PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

5th of July, Services PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

7th of July, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected

12th of July, UK Job Market
Better than Expected

18th of July, CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, UK Retail Sales
Better than Expected

26th of July, UK GDP release (Preliminary)
As Expected

1st of August, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

2nd of August, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)

3rd of August, Services PMI
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)

4th of August, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Job Market Better than Expected

AUD/USD

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected. Eyes on today Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment and Australia Home Loans.

Australia Retail Sales better than expected. Australia Trade Balance again on the downbeat but building approvals for June jumped 10.9%, far outpacing a 1.5% gain seen month-on-month.

The U.S. Federal Reserve statement noted that interest rates are likely to remain low for “some time”, highlighting that increases in its benchmark rate will depend on incoming economic data.
U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence better than expected, both Manufacturing and Services PMI in the U.S.A. were better than expected as well. Last U.S. GDP release pared expectations.

On the other hand, the dollar fell amid expanding investigations into allegations that Russia meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (investors are afraid that would sidetrack the implementation of Trump’s fiscal and economic policies) and after repeated failure of Trumps’s healthcare bill, not able to garner enough votes for replacing Obamacare.

As we wrote previously, 0.8034 is very strong Resistance and it worked pushing price back to 0.7916 again. We confirm that 0.783 area will have to be retested, and this represents our first target.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7916
2nd Resistance: 0.8034
1st Support: 0.7828
2nd Support: 0.7735

AUD

Recent Facts:

26th of April, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected

2nd of May, RBA Interest Rate Statement
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

4th of May, Australia New Home Sales + Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

9th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

18th of May, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected

24th of May, Australia Construction Work Done
Worse than Expected

24th of May, Moody’s Credit Rating on China
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating to A1 from Aa3, changing its outlook to stable from negative

25th of May, OPEC Meeting
OPEC decided to extend production cuts by nine months to March 2018

30th of May, Building Approvals + Private House Approvals
Better than Expected

1st of June, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

6th of June, Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Statement
In the last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held Interest Rates at 1.5% as expected, reporting that the current account’s deficit widened

7th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected

15th of June, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected (3rd month in a row)

29th of June, HIA New Home Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected

4th of July, Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
RBA holds Rates at 1.5%

6th of July, Australia Trade Balance
Better than Expected

11th of July, Home Loans + NAB Business Confidence
Home Loans Worse than Expected, NAB Business Confidence Better than Expected

12th of July, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Better than Expected

20th of July, Employment Change + Unemployment Rate
Employment Change Worse than Expected, Unemployment Rate as Expected

25th of July, CPI + RBA Governor Lowe Speech
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, Trade Balance
Worse than Expected

4th of August, Australia Retail Sales
Better than Expected

8th of August, Westpac Consumer Sentiment + Home Loans
…

USD

Recent Facts:

13th of June, Producer Price Index
Core PPI (ex food and energy) Better than Expected

14th of June, CPI + Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

14th of June, FOMC Interest Rates Decision + Statement
Interest Rate hike as Expected (to 1.25%)

23rd of June, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

26th of June, Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of June, Pending Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of June, U.S. GDP + U.S. Job Market
GDP Better than Expected, Job claims slightly worse than expected

3rd of July, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

5th of July, FOMC Minute Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve members insisted that expectations are that inflation will rise to 2% target in 2019

6th of July, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Nonfarm Worse than Expected, ISM Non-Manufacturing Better than Expected

7th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Change
Nonfarm Payrolls Better than Expected, Unemployment Change Worse than Expected

13th of July, PPI
Better than Expected

14th of July, U.S. Core Retail + U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

20th of July, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected

25th of July, Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

27th of July, Core Durable Goods Orders
Worse than Expected

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)

4th of August, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Job Market Better than Expected

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Eyes on today Eurozone CPI data.

Fed’s policymakers agreed a fall in longer-term inflation expectations would be undesirable. They disagree on whether inflation expectations were well-anchored. Most of them expected inflation to pick up in next few years, but many saw rising chances of inflation remaining below target (2%).

Another hit to U.S. administration following an exodus from and eventual disbanding of U.S. President Donald Trump’s manufacturing council and strategic policy forum.

German GDP (Preliminary release) worse than expected.
U.S. Retail Sales increased more than expected after 4 months of figures disappointing the forecasts.

U.S. Core Inflation figures ticked down again (for the fourth time in a row). Also, U.S. PPI (another Inflation data) worse than expected.

Geopolitical tensions deepened, and tensions between Pyongyang and Washington continue to escalate.

The ECB’s big dilemma is that while the euro zone economy has grown for 17th straight quarters and employment is rising faster than expected, wage growth remains anemic, keeping a lid on consumer prices. Economists are now trying to figure out whether wages are showing an unexpectedly delayed response or whether wage setting dynamics may have fundamentally changed in the post-crisis, globalized economy.

As we wrote previously, we expected first a re-test back to 1.1756, and it happened both the 7th and the 15th of August. Now eyes on the continuation of this retracement down to 1.1655 (First important Support).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1756
2nd Resistance: 1.1856
1st Support: 1.1655
2nd Support: 1.1590

GBP/USD

Eyes on today UK Retail Sales.
UK Job Market better than expected: UK unemployment falls to lowest since 1975.

On the other hand, the greenback fell following the announcement from Trump via Twitter about the eventual disbanding of U.S. President Donald Trump’s manufacturing council and strategic policy forum.

Furthermore, Federal Reserve policymakers were split on the outlook for future rate hikes, as Fed members struggled to balance concerns about the slowdown in inflation with the growth in the labor market.

As we expected, the consolidation below 1.2978 led GBP/USD straight down to our Support 1.2830. We still are bearish until 1.27 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3099
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

AUD/USD

Australia Employment Change better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative.

The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes painted a possible stronger than expected growth spurt in the coming year in an otherwise light data day with North Korea a bit toned down on firing missiles at or near U.S. territory Guam.

A nearly twelve-month low for Chinese refinery activity come against concerns that a glut of refined fuel products could lessen demand for oil, reducing the prospect of oil inventories falling below the five-year average, adding pressure on oil prices. AUD weakened as well.

China Industrial Production disappointed expectations.
U.S. Core Inflation figures ticked down again (for the fourth time in a row). Also, U.S. PPI (another Inflation data) worse than expected.

The dollar suffered as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and North Korea intensified. On the other hand, Australia home loans data rose 0.5% for June, compared with a 1.5% gain expected. China consumer and producer prices ticked down.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its official cash rate at a record low 1.75% as expected and said that it expects a neutral view to persist with inflation projections well anchored around 2%. Australia Retail Sales were better than expected. Australia Trade Balance was again on the downbeat but building approvals for June jumped 10.9%, far outpacing a 1.5% gain seen month-on-month.

On the other hand, the dollar fell also amid expanding investigations into allegations that Russia meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (investors are afraid that would sidetrack the implementation of Trump’s fiscal and economic policies) and after repeated failure of Trumps’s healthcare bill, not able to garner enough votes for replacing Obamacare.

As we wrote previously, breakout of 0.7916, important level, led down to 0.783 area, our first target. We are still bearish until 0.774 area.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 0.7916
2nd Resistance: 0.8034
1st Support: 0.7828
2nd Support: 0.7735

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Fed’s policymakers agreed a fall in longer-term inflation expectations would be undesirable. They disagree on whether inflation expectations were well-anchored. Most of them expected inflation to pick up in next few years, but many saw rising chances of inflation remaining below target (2%).

Another hit to U.S. administration following an exodus from and eventual disbanding of U.S. President Donald Trump’s manufacturing council and strategic policy forum.

Eurozone CPI data came as expected while last German GDP (Preliminary release) was worse than expected.

U.S. Core Inflation figures ticked down again (for the fourth time in a row). Also, U.S. PPI (another Inflation data) worse than expected.

On the other hand, the ECB’s big dilemma is that while the euro zone economy has grown for 17th straight quarters and employment is rising faster than expected, wage growth remains anaemic, keeping a lid on consumer prices. Economists are now trying to figure out whether wages are showing an unexpectedly delayed response or whether wage setting dynamics may have fundamentally changed in the post-crisis, globalized economy.

As we wrote previously, we expected first a re-test back to 1.1756, and it happened both the 7th and the 15th of August. Now eyes on the continuation of this retracement down to 1.1655 (First important Support, tested first time the 17th).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1756
2nd Resistance: 1.1856
1st Support: 1.1655
2nd Support: 1.1590

GBP/USD

UK Retail Sales better than expected and UK Job Market better than expected too: UK unemployment falls to lowest since 1975.

On the other hand, the greenback fell following the announcement from Trump via Twitter about the eventual disbanding of U.S. President Donald Trump’s manufacturing council and strategic policy forum.

Furthermore, Federal Reserve policymakers were split on the outlook for future rate hikes, as Fed members struggled to balance concerns about the slowdown in inflation with the growth in the labor market.

As we expected, the consolidation below 1.2978 led GBP/USD straight down to our Support 1.2830. We still are bearish until 1.27 area but a consolidation around 1.27 is occurring.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3099
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

AUD/USD

Australia Employment Change better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative.

The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes painted a possible stronger than expected growth spurt in the coming year in an otherwise light data day with North Korea a bit toned down on firing missiles at or near U.S. territory Guam.

A nearly twelve-month low for Chinese refinery activity come against concerns that a glut of refined fuel products could lessen demand for oil, reducing the prospect of oil inventories falling below the five-year average, adding pressure on oil prices. AUD weakened as well.

China Industrial Production disappointed expectations.
U.S. Core Inflation figures ticked down again (for the fourth time in a row). Also, U.S. PPI (another Inflation data) worse than expected.

The dollar suffered as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and North Korea intensified. On the other hand, Australia home loans data rose 0.5% for June, compared with a 1.5% gain expected. China consumer and producer prices ticked down.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its official cash rate at a record low 1.75% as expected and said that it expects a neutral view to persist with inflation projections well anchored around 2%. Australia Retail Sales were better than expected. Australia Trade Balance was again on the downbeat but building approvals for June jumped 10.9%, far outpacing a 1.5% gain seen month-on-month.

On the other hand, the dollar fell also amid expanding investigations into allegations that Russia meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (investors are afraid that would sidetrack the implementation of Trump’s fiscal and economic policies) and after repeated failure of Trumps’s healthcare bill, not able to garner enough votes for replacing Obamacare.

As we wrote previously, breakout of 0.7916, important level, led down to 0.783 area, our first target. We are still bearish until 0.774 area, but first 0.783 has to be successfully violated again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7916
2nd Resistance: 0.8034
1st Support: 0.7828
2nd Support: 0.7735

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

Fed’s policymakers agreed a fall in longer-term inflation expectations would be undesirable. They disagree on whether inflation expectations were well-anchored. Most of them expected inflation to pick up in next few years, but many saw rising chances of inflation remaining below target (2%).

Another hit to U.S. administration following an exodus from and eventual disbanding of U.S. President Donald Trump’s manufacturing council and strategic policy forum. Turbulence surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration following the backlash over his statements on the white supremacist rally in Charlottesville.

Eurozone CPI data came as expected while last German GDP (Preliminary release) was worse than expected.

U.S. Core Inflation figures ticked down again (for the fourth time in a row). Also, U.S. PPI (another Inflation data) worse than expected.

On the other hand, the ECB’s big dilemma is that while the euro zone economy has grown for 17th straight quarters and employment is rising faster than expected, wage growth remains anaemic, keeping a lid on consumer prices. Economists are now trying to figure out whether wages are showing an unexpectedly delayed response or whether wage setting dynamics may have fundamentally changed in the post-crisis, globalized economy.

As we wrote previously, we expected first a re-test back to 1.1756, and it happened both the 7th and the 15th of August. Now eyes on the continuation of this retracement down to 1.1655 (First important Support, tested first time on the 17th).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1756
2nd Resistance: 1.1856
1st Support: 1.1655
2nd Support: 1.1590

GBP/USD

Growing expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold in the coming months amid concerns over the economic fallout from Brexit. UK Retail Sales better than expected and UK Job Market better than expected too: UK unemployment falls to lowest since 1975.

On the other hand, the greenback fell following the announcement from Trump via Twitter about the eventual disbanding of U.S. President Donald Trump’s manufacturing council and strategic policy forum.

Furthermore, Federal Reserve policymakers were split on the outlook for future rate hikes, as Fed members struggled to balance concerns about the slowdown in inflation with the growth in the labor market.

As we expected, the break below 1.2978 led GBP/USD straight down to our Support 1.2830. We still are bearish until 1.27 area, but a consolidation around 1.283 is occurring.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3099
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

AUD/USD

Last Australia Employment Change was seen better than Expected but Full Employment Change was negative. The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes painted a possible stronger than expected growth spurt in the coming year in an otherwise light data day with North Korea a bit toned down on firing missiles at or near U.S. territory Guam.

Market players have recently registered OPEC’s difficulties in holding to their production cut agreement as those members exempt from the reduction accord such as Libya or Nigeria continue to increase output. Recent data on overall compliance hit its lowest percentage this year.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its official cash rate at a record low 1.75% as expected and said that it expects a neutral view to persist with inflation projections well anchored around 2%. Australia Retail Sales were better than expected. Australia Trade Balance was again on the downbeat but building approvals for June jumped 10.9%, far outpacing a 1.5% gain seen month-on-month.

Turbulence surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration following the backlash over his statements on the white supremacist rally in Charlottesville. Market players see the recent political turmoil as an obstacle to Trump being able to follow through on infrastructure spending and tax reforms.

As we wrote previously, breakout of 0.7916, important level, led down to 0.783 area, our first target. We are still bearish until 0.774 area, but first 0.783 has to be successfully violated again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7916
2nd Resistance: 0.8034
1st Support: 0.7828
2nd Support: 0.7735

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

EUR/USD

The focus is now on Jackson Hole Symposium, ECB’s President Draghi Speech, U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Fed Chair Yellen Speech.

From the U.S., Manufacturing PMI and House Markets were worse than expected. Also, Chicago manufacturing data undershot economists’ forecasts.

Fitch Ratings said that a failure to raise the federal debt ceiling in a timely manner in September would prompt it to review the United States’ sovereign rating “with potentially negative implications.”

German Manufacturing PMI better than expected but German ZEW Economic Sentiment again worse than the expectations (for the 4th time in a row): the ZEW research institute said its monthly survey showed its economic sentiment index fell to 10.0, the weakest reading since October.

The ECB’s big dilemma is that while the euro zone economy has grown for 17th straight quarters and employment is rising faster than expected, wage growth remains anaemic, keeping a lid on consumer prices. Economists are now trying to figure out whether wages are showing an unexpectedly delayed response or whether wage setting dynamics may have fundamentally changed in the post-crisis, globalized economy.

We are now on an important Resistance area. As we wrote previously, we expect both a re-test back to 1.1756 and the continuation of this retracement down to 1.1655 (First important Support, tested first time on the 17th).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1756
2nd Resistance: 1.1856
1st Support: 1.1655
2nd Support: 1.1590

GBP/USD

UK GDP (Preliminary release) as expected but Business Investment (Preliminary release) on the downbeat. On the other hand, last U.S. Manufacturing and House Markets data were worse than expected.

From the U.S., focus on today Fed Chair Yellen Speech.

Uncertainty over the economic agenda of U.S. President Donald Trump and doubts that the Federal Reserve will deliver a third rate hike this year have fed into recent dollar weakness. Furthermore, Federal Reserve policymakers were split on the outlook for future rate hikes, as Fed members struggled to balance concerns about the slowdown in inflation with the growth in the labor market.

On the other hand, ongoing expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold in the coming months amid concerns over the economic fallout from Brexit. UK Retail Sales better than expected and UK Job Market better than expected too: UK unemployment falls to lowest since 1975.

As we expected, the break below 1.2978 led GBP/USD straight down to our Support 1.2830. We still are bearish until 1.27 area, but a consolidation around 1.283 is occurring.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3099
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

AUD/USD

On the U.S. side, focus on today Durable Goods Orders and Fed Chair Yellen Speech.

Oil prices turned higher after data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that domestic crude supplies fell less than expected last week, but that gasoline stocks declined far more than forecast.
Earlier, Oil prices were pressured and fell on concerns of oversupply as Libyan output recovers
weighed down by concerns amid ongoing global supply glut concerns.

Last Australia Employment Change was seen better than Expected but Full Employment Change was negative. The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes painted a possible stronger than expected growth spurt in the coming year in an otherwise light data day with North Korea a bit toned down on firing missiles at or near U.S. territory Guam.

Turbulence surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration following the backlash over his statements on the white supremacist rally in Charlottesville. Market players see the recent political turmoil as an obstacle to Trump being able to follow through on infrastructure spending and tax reforms.

As we wrote previously, breakout of 0.7916, important level, led down to 0.783 area, our first target. Now 0.7916 Resistance area should push price down again. We are still bearish until 0.774 area, but first 0.783 has to be successfully violated again.

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7916
2nd Resistance: 0.8034
1st Support: 0.7828
2nd Support: 0.7735

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

Daily Forex Analysis: EUR/USD

Ahead of important Employment data from U.S. we think that sentiment for the USD will regain momentum as USD is heavily oversold and Nonfarm Payrolls can surprise in better.

After U.S. Durable Goods Orders only slightly better than expected, Fed Chair Yellen speech at Jackson Hole offered no hints on monetary policy and the outlook for interest rates.

From the U.S., Manufacturing PMI and House Markets were worse than expected. Also, Chicago manufacturing data undershot economists’ forecasts.

Fitch Ratings said that a failure to raise the federal debt ceiling in a timely manner in September would prompt it to review the United States’ sovereign rating “with potentially negative implications.”

German Manufacturing PMI better than expected but German ZEW Economic Sentiment again worse than the expectations (for the 4th time in a row): the ZEW research institute said its monthly survey showed its economic sentiment index fell to 10.0, the weakest reading since October.

End-of-summer hedging (and in the absence of relevant macro economical or political data) messed up a little bit the whole picture but it is giving a lot of reasons to the next correction wave. Fake breakout of 1.1856 will be re-absorbed soon and we still are overbought: so first we expect the re-test back to 1.1756 and then the continuation of this retracement down to 1.1655 (First important Support, tested first time on the 17th).

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1856 (fake breakout)
2nd Resistance: 1.1920
1st Support: 1.1655
2nd Support: 1.1590

Daily Forex Analysis: GBP/USD

After U.S. Durable Goods Orders only slightly better than expected, Fed Chair Yellen speech at Jackson Hole offered no hints on monetary policy and the outlook for interest rates.

UK GDP (Preliminary release) as expected but Business Investment (Preliminary release) on the downbeat. On the other hand, last U.S. Manufacturing and House Markets data were worse than expected but ahead of important Employment data from U.S. we think that sentiment for the USD will regain momentum as USD is heavily oversold and Nonfarm Payrolls can surprise in better.

Uncertainty over the economic agenda of U.S. President Donald Trump and doubts that the Federal Reserve will deliver a third rate hike this year have fed into recent dollar weakness. Furthermore, Federal Reserve policymakers were split on the outlook for future rate hikes, as Fed members struggled to balance concerns about the slowdown in inflation with the growth in the labor market.

On the other hand, ongoing expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold in the coming months amid concerns over the economic fallout from Brexit. UK Retail Sales better than expected and UK Job Market better than expected too: UK unemployment falls to lowest since 1975.

As we expected, the break below 1.2978 led GBP/USD straight down to our Support 1.2830. The consolidation around 1.283 is occurring but it has a very limited amount of energy now. So, eyes on the next re-test of 1.28, as we still are bearish until 1.27 area.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2978
2nd Resistance: 1.3099
1st Support: 1.2830
2nd Support: 1.2705

Daily Forex Analysis: AUD/USD

After U.S. Durable Goods Orders only slightly better than expected, Fed Chair Yellen speech at Jackson Hole offered no hints on monetary policy and the outlook for interest rates.

Oil prices turned higher after data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that domestic crude supplies fell less than expected last week, but that gasoline stocks declined far more than forecast.
Earlier, Oil prices were pressured and fell on concerns of oversupply as Libyan output recovers
weighed down by concerns amid ongoing global supply glut concerns.

Last Australia Employment Change was seen better than Expected but Full Employment Change was negative. The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes painted a possible stronger than expected growth spurt in the coming year in an otherwise light data day with North Korea a bit toned down on firing missiles at or near U.S. territory Guam.

Turbulence surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration following the backlash over his statements on the white supremacist rally in Charlottesville. Market players see the recent political turmoil as an obstacle to Trump being able to follow through on infrastructure spending and tax reforms.

As we wrote previously, breakout of 0.7916, important level, led down to 0.783 area, our first target. Now 0.7916 Resistance area should push price down again. We are still bearish until 0.774 area, but first 0.783 has to be successfully violated again (and this is taking a long time due to the end-of-summer hedging, in the absence of relevant macro economical or political data, that messed up a little bit the whole picture).

Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7916
2nd Resistance: 0.8034
1st Support: 0.7828
2nd Support: 0.7735

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

#DAX30
At around 15:15, the German index is growing. Dax30 is about 12172 points, or 0.58% in the green. This morning, the indicators (expectations) of economic activity (composite and service sectors) in Germany were slightly above expectations for August. Before the end of trading in Frankfurt, Merck (+ 2.4%) and Volkswagen (+ 2.05%) are among the winners, while Komerc banka (-1.35%) and Dojče Bank (-1.22%) are among the losers.

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

#GOLD - afternoon analysis

The price of gold has increased during European trading. Gold is a secure investment in insecure times. Tensions on the Korean peninsula are “pushing” the price of gold from Sunday. An additional increase in demand for safe investments has been raised by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, who said that a conflict in the Korean peninsula would lead to a disaster. During European trading, the price of gold rose by 0.44%.

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

#OIL
During European trading, the price of crude oil has risen. The price of crude oil is on the rise due to the stabilization of the production of this fuel in the United States, and after the devastating consequences of the hurricane in the south of the United States. Bearing in mind that yesterday was a non-working day in the US, reports on crude oil stocks this week will be published a day later than usual. During European trading, the price of crude oil increased by 2.75%

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

#DAX30 morning analysis

Dax30 rose 0.18% on Tuesday. The winner of the day was Merck’s share that grew 2.37%. This morning, the factory purchases in Germany showed a level much lower than expected.

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

#GOLD - morning analysis

During the Asian trade, the price of gold slightly corrected the gains from the last two days. Gold at around 8:35 am is traded for $ 1337 for a fine ounce.

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

#DAX30
At around 15:25 hours, the German index is at 12,252.50, which is a growth of 1.04%. Before the end of trading in Frankfurt, the winners are Daimler A.G (+ 3.68%) and losers E.ON SE (-0.77%)

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

#GOLD
The price of gold has increased during European trading. The price of this precious metal remains at its highest value in the past year as a reaction to the escalation of tensions in the Korean peninsula. During European trading, the price of gold rose by 0.03%.

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

#USD/JPY
During the European trading, the dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen. After several days of strengthening the Japanese yen due to the rise in geopolitical risk in the world after the latest hydrogen bomb testing in North Korea, today’s exchange rate of this currency pair is being corrected. During the European trading, the US dollar strengthened against the yen by 0.07%.

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

#Dax30

DAX30 rose by 0.75% on Wednesday. The biggest growth was recorded by companies from the food industry, the chemical sector and the services sector. Daimler AG (+ 3.17%) was the winner and E.ON loser (-1.47%). The volatility index that records the sentiment of investors in terms of expected volatility in the future period has decreased by 2.67% and is at 16.22 points.

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS

[Lucas_SGT_Markets]

#GOLD

The price of gold has increased during Asian trading. The success of US President Donald Tramp in the Senate over the country’s maximum debt limit sent a positive sentiment to the financial market, so that after a few days certain investments were weakened. However, tensions on the Korean peninsula are still present, as South Korea has previously announced that its northern neighbor could test the intercontinental ballistic missile for the weekend. During Asian trading, gold prices rose by 0.10%.

Encouraging Data Out of Europe Supports The Euro - SGT MARKETS