Personally, although I see the idea behind that trade, I prefer a neater Entry. It is, as you say, countertrend, which always reduces the probability of a successful outcome. The bars are not that clear, I would want to see some high tests as a minimum before shorting countertrend. There is little Fib support, generally it would just not be for me.
The market is pretty choppy at the moment, particularly for end of day trading - I have had losses on USD/CHF and CHF/JPY this week - so I would want a much higher-probability setup than this.
Of course, now it will shoot away and hit target lol! But I would rather sit out and watch. Sorry to come off negative!!
Super choppy indeed! But the US session did provide a nice opportunity for a short. Had I taken this trade, I wouldāve gotten stopped out around 1.0600 anyway so itās good I didnāt.
USD/CHF was really hard to predict this week, mostly because of SNBās constant attempts to keep the franc from rising. You trade CHF/JPY?! Now thatās an unusual choice, hahaha. I hope your losses werenāt too bad though
Yes, I hear that, curse you SNB lol! It was always a risk but seeing all the other factors I thought I would be okay. Obviously I was wrong, no bad thing to be wrong from time to time lol. A few traders I know took the same trade - I guess misery loves company!!
The loss was not too bad in the grand scheme of things, thank you; I always risk 1% per trade, so those two lost me 2% between them. Gave the market a further 1% on a failed USD/JPY Short last week. In abstract terms, a fair chunk of money, but in terms of the trading cycle it goes with the territory. I look at the monthly and annual percentage to gauge how I am doing - I donāt count pips and donāt overly sweat individual losing trades.
The way I see it, this is a career with very few overheads - at the end of the day, most of us would own a computer anyway, so the only consistent overhead in my case is the charting package (and obviously those are available for free!), so the odd loss doesnāt feel too unfair. August is always a weaker month, not enough volume in the market to give the same force to the moves. One thing I love about trading is that the losses are capped, but the profits are open-ended. I limit my loss to 1% per trade, but most of my winners pull more than that - I opened the month with 2.2% on AUD/CAD, for instance.
I trade CHF/JPY a fair bit (indeed, I really like the AUD- and CHF- crosses in general). The Daily chart will demonstrate that it spends a LOT of its time trending, and anything that trends will give nice, consistent pips.
Glad you stayed out of the AUD trade - that was the safer play.
I still have a bit of bullish bias on this pair since it broke above the channel last week, but Iām a bit unsure if the recent weak Aussie data could trigger a retracement or reversal. What do you guys think?
Iām still instinctively bullish on this pair, but am waiting on the data this week, particularly NFP tomorrow. The picture will hopefully become clearer next week. I would rather see a retracement back towards the 1.0600 level, which has been on my chart for a while. This should also coincide with the 50ema on the Daily - if it does then I would be looking for long positions. But given all the news, and NFP, as you say we could see a breach of that level and then who knows - if that happens, we will have to see whether it consitutes a full-on reversal or just a larger retracement. My gut says retracement then resumption of the uptrend. But I never trade just my gutā¦
Sorry Iāve been gone for awhile, but I managed to land a āreal jobā so Iām only able to look at charts and data during the asian session with having to predict which way I expect the London and U.S. session to go. Iāve been watching this pair but have only made 1 trade on it this week and tried to go short around the 1.0600 area, clearly that didnāt work out.
I find it interesting that ST is bullish on this pair because i tend to agree with most of his wonderful advise and trading style. But I find myself in the bear camp with the AUD/USD. Thats only because the sentiment here in the states is somewhat negative and it seems like every small piece of bad data that comes out sends everyone to risk aversion and the dollar then gets stronger. So now that this pair made itās first bear candle after the doji and then hammer on the daily timeframe, Iām expecting this pair to hit 1.05 before it goes back in the upward direction. So during the weekend I will probably look to go short with a PT around the 1.05 area.
Has anyone looked at the AUD/CAD cross? that pair is gettting very close to some strong resistance in the 1.05 zone. Iām watching that one closely and plan on going short once it hits that resistance and gives me some confirmation
First up, congratulations on landing a real job, particularly in the current climate. Takes some pressure off your Forex account. And you can always quit the job again next year once your trading hits another levelā¦
Thank you, also, for the unsolicited compliments! Much appreciated.
Should give you some context to my view on AUD/USD, though. The picture is certainly more mixed than it has been, hence it is not that surprising that we have differing views. Fundamentally, I absolutely see where you are coming from. AUD has been rocketing on the back of the rising gold price for a good while, now, and it must come to an end at some point. However, technically, I look at the chart and always trade what I see, I just need that to line up with my fundamental view. This pair is still in an uptrend; stick a 200ema on your Daily chart, scrunch it up, and it gives a pretty clear picture. Personally, I would not trade against that without good reason. And after all, your Short stopped outā¦which does suggest that you went too early. For me, I see the theory behind the trade, but the Daily gave a strong buyer bar, then another the following day which took out your Stop. I would have wanted to see a reversal bar before jumping into that one.
So I am really eying the 1.1000 level. That is where we have seen reasons to go short most recently, from a technical point of view it seems to me that Price is going to retest that level. If we get a reversal bar of some sort up around there, I will be short, certainly. Not sure if you like RSI, I am not really an indicator guy but I occasionally stick RSI on my Daily to see some confirmation - previous Short opportunities have been accompanied by an overbought RSI, which we did not get around the time of your Short. So I am waiting; I agree with you that a drop is coming, but I donāt see sufficient indication in the chart that we are there quite yet, so will stay out and see what this week brings.
Interesting that you mention AUD/CAD - that is in my watchlist at the moment, I will take the exact trade you outlined if it lines up, hoping for a high test this week! I mentioned earlier in this thread that I took that self-same trade at the end of July, made a nice percentage from it. I wonāt take that and AUD/USD, though, I will take whichever sets up first or neatest. Which probably means AUD/CADā¦
Good to see that we are thinking the same way, always reassuring!!
The AUD came out with some better than expected second tier data, so ST you were right! at this moment itās bouncing up. With no data coming out of the States until Tuesday I suspect the AUD rallys a bit, or at least until we get something from the U.S. on Tuesday. Iām going to wait on this pair a little longer and when it gets close to the 1.05 area Iāll look to place a buy. The 1.07 area has shown some good resistance back in May and some in June so I ponder if this pair is going to range like it did during those 2 months between the 1.05 - 1.07. seems logical to me.
Yes, that AUD/CAD is getting close to the zone. I am placing my limit order around 1.0525 and then Iāll look to add once it gets below 1.0450.
Hey guys, what do you think of buying AUD/USD at parity for a potential swing trade? The last time it hit 1.0000, it rallied by 750 pips. Good chance of a repeat or not?
Yes, personally I have that one in my watchlist for that very reason. Looking at the Daily chart, the fact that Price failed to make a higher high on 1st September concerns me a little, but then this Pair has had such a strong rise in line with the rocketing gold price that it is not surprising that it began to run out of puff a little. The Monthly makes for slightly alarming viewing - that is a serious sell off - but the short answer (sorry, little late for that, I guess lol) is that yes, if Price Action gives us an Entry around parity I will be looking for a long position. Even being conservative, there could be a great R:R on the cards. But perhaps getting a little ahead of myself, thereā¦!!
Yay, good to know weāre thinking of the same thing! It might take a while before the pair reaches parity but itās a long-term setup Iām looking at and, if it does get triggered, I hope I can press my advantage. Thanks ST!
I know that a few people advocated entering a Long position off the Support at around the 1.0200 level, and I know that this stuff all depends on how much of a move one is looking to capture, what TF is being used for the Entry etc., but for me it is the right play to wait on a potential Long from parity.
Looking at the Daily chart, the last few daysā PA has been a choppy mess, and if you look at the last time this level was tested (end of the last week in August) we got the same thing. For me, there is too much of a risk that this pair will spike down to test parity before moving up for me to want to get in a Long at this point. Look at the PA from last time parity was tested - a big low test on the Daily, that gave nice opportunities to enter a Long on the lower timeframes. Altogether much cleaner than trying to pick the moment with a tight enough Entry at the 1.0200 level.
So yes, Price might sort itself out and move north from the 1.0200 Support, and if that happens then I will miss it, but for me the higher probability trade, with likely the cleaner PA, would be a move from parity. So I will keep my powder dry and see if parity is tested - if it is, I will trade it. If it isnāt, thereās always another trade. This is a probability game, that generally favours quality over quantity, so I am personally going to sit out at the current level and see whether it gives us a safer run from parity.
Well looks like 1.0200 just got smashed well not smashed but thats was some pretty strong momentum. Of course I was playing a long off the doji on the 4hr chart and went to the bath room without setting a SL its ok though 42 pip loss but I was playing it safe so well within my MM. Its ok though I have been geting greedy lately and was just wanting to scalp 40 pips so give 40 back serves me right :15:
Hey bobmaninc! Welcome to my Aussie Comdoll Corner
That looked like a pretty decent setup, in my opinion, and 1.0200 has been really holding so far. The 4-hour candles are looking spiky with those long wicks, suggesting that Aussie bulls are still fighting to hold on. At the same time, stochastic is almost in the oversold area. That level could still be a good area for a quick day trade, but it looks like itās gonna break soon.
Maybe your stop was too tight? Price action was a little volatile lately so a wider stop couldāve kept you in the trade, and maybe let you exit at a much better price before the level actually breaks.
For now I still donāt have a clear bias for this pair, but if stochastic crosses up and we see more upward momentum, I might go for a quick scalp off 1.0200. If it breaks, Iāll be waiting to go long at parity, thatās for sure!
Quite agree, it was a good basic setup, but with such a confused picture on the Daily it was a setup for those with a slightly higher risk appetite than mine, as there always seem to be spikes on the lower timeframes when the Daily PA looks like that. Itās the old balance - very high probability setups donāt come along too many times a week, but when they do they pay nicely and they are easy on the psychology as they give a high win rate. Good but slightly lower-probability setups are more frequent, but the cost of them is that we give back more regular pips to the market waiting for the winner. So overall one gets more losing trades, but also more winners.
Iām in the former camp (I hate losing lol!) but that was certainly a good setup. I donāt know where your Stop was, but personally had I traded this I would have had it under the lows of 14/15 September, and been stopped out on this one. But next time it will sail north from 1.0200, you will make nice pips and I will be on the sidelines watching. As long as one is present often enough to take a fair few setups, that sort of trading approach will pay nicely over the long run.
A trader friend of mine once said that losing trades are the inevitable overheads of running such a profitable business as Forex trading. Nice way to look at it. We donāt have to lease office space, run a company car, employ a secretary (unless we want oneā¦!!), any of that. We just give the odd few pips back to the market. It means that there is more money in there for us to win back later.
Yeah it probably would have been ok to trade but I wanted to see it go north off that doji. Didnt matter where my stop was as soon as price dipped south of the doji I was out. I dont wait and hope for the market to go in my favor. It either does what I want it to or i am out. I honestly think I jumped the gun a little early on it and should have waited for price go close above the doji then entered but hey it is what it is. Its a small account 50 cent pips so I lost 21 bucks for a lesson learned even trade in my book.
Now thatās a comforting thought. I especially like the last part about having more money for us to win back later on! Iāll definitely keep this in mind.
