How do you expect the Brexit vote to go tomorrow? DEFEATED

And so money was to be spent, money that did not exist locally.

The UK govt was still not sold to the extent that they would spend money on ‘peace’, after all they were putting millions into NI, enough was enough.

Pres Clinton and John Hume clicked, they liked each other, Clinton went out on a limb and decided to back what became known as ‘the peace process’, not only with his time but also Sen Mitchell and some US Dollars.

Then the EU decided to join in. They allocated €531million in structural funds.

An EU commissioner was appointed to oversee economic revival in the Irish border region, it was his baby to see it through to success.

His name?

Michel Barnier

And finally the rumour became fact, but this was one rumour not to sell.

It was grabbed with the same sense of relief that we felt all those years ago when we got through with our engagement ring, now the right side of the chart was bright.

The peace treaty was signed on Good Friday 10th April 1998. it needed to come before the people by referendum for ratification.

In NI 71.1% voted Yes, in ROI 94.39% voted Yes - the Good Friday Agreement and peace was born.

The underlying principle of the GFA is that a person can be either Irish or British - there is no border so feel free to choose.

Only one political party in all of the US, EU, UK, ROI, NI opposed the GFA and campaigned for a NO vote.

The DUP

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@peterma Great write up - thanks. Much better explained from a personal POV than a political one.

Thanks Wight.

The politics of it all is quite sad really, but I’d say experience has taught me to be positive.

The US senate passed a motion last week supporting our border community, the EU are also supportive.

Four hours ago former UK PM Tony Blair (who played a major role in the peace accord) warned of ‘devastating’ consequences for peace in Northern Ireland on Sky News.

These warnings are often called ‘project fear’ by others - I often think that a person has to experience fear to really understand it.

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Excellent history lesson. It makes what’s going on today definitely more understandable. What crazy times those must have been, having to go through the border crossing.

So did every major road have a patrolled crossing?

Aye, they were known as “Approved Routes”.

There were a few of these dotted throughout the green countryside always close to the border.

watchtower

The hard border contributed to an economic downturn - during this time many young men from the area headed of to the US where they remain to this day, some running businesses and raising families - out of bad there is always good.

After the peace accord and the single market all the checkpoints disappeared and new security personnel were drafted in - there is no getting past these two guys :slight_smile:

soft_border

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Heard several MPs quit today. Is that a common thing? Are these signals of an impending doom? And the news that Honda is closing shop, but that might be more just global economics than strictly Brexit related. Have they, Honda, said either way?

Business does not like politics so statement later today will be quite neutral.

One of the reasons for the Honda shift - same for Nissan - is the trade deal agreed between EU and Japan. That deal gives certainty therefore Honda can make long term plans with more confidence by shifting production to Japan.

Manufacturers often will leave their trade associations to make the more aggressive political type statements such as the EEF (manufacturing) whose head has warned that Britain faces the “catastrophic prospect of a no-deal Brexit next month due to the selfishness of some politicians and chaotic parliamentary proceedings”

Quite political.

Actually No MPs “Quit” yesterday.

Seven I believe, who gained their seats and their incomes off the back of Labour party manifestos and Labor Party funding, have decided that they no longer need to fulfil their part of the implied bargain and have resigned from the Labour Party.

People who voted them into office on teh basis that they were voting for “The Labour Party” have then apparently been betrayed. There are calls for the traitors to their cause to resign as MPs as would appear to be the honourable thing to do, but they are so far refusing to do so. It would seem they want the benefits of the Labour Party sponsorship but refuse to accept the responsibilities.

Rumours of more MP’s leaving their respective parties later today, a smaller number this time and possibly some from the governing party (who already need the support of 10 DUP mp’s)

All this adds to the chaos - the pound has been rising on lower USD and hope that some sort of a deal on Brexit will appear - wonder will there soon be talk of an election?

Just a thought - I’d be careful right now on pound trading nonetheless.

Yes, my newbie trading skills and economic understanding (or lack of) got caught in a losing GBPUSD trade last week. What I thought would be GBP bullish and Dollar bearish were completely wrong. It was probably a bad idea altogether to place a trade around a Brexit vote AND a FOMC meeting. Plus my stop was too tight given recent price range, but a great learning experience on the complexities of fundamental market movers and TA working with and against each other.

Aye it’s see saw right now - yesterday hope of a deal, this morning bit of a ruffle, then this evening back to a deal.

The EU will offer some changes but their concern is that Westminister will vote any offer down, so lots of caution and seesawing ahead, but you are correct re the learning aspect.

I’ve been following Eur/Gbp a few years but I cannot call this one - somewhere between 80 and 95 :slight_smile:

Yes @peterma , we have 3 women from the Conservative side who are prepared to defy the will of the people and join what appears to be turning into some sort of “We know best - only our opinions count” group ! Bremainers ot the world unite ! :rofl:

I have to say I find that Anna SOubrey to be a most obnoxious person and hopefully this will mean she loses her seat at the next election and we never have to hear that strident harridan again ! :slightly_smiling_face:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8466723/tories-quit-join-independent-group-rebels-theresa-may-chaos/

I am playing short GBP as I am waiting end of March and final decision on extension of Art.50 or not. I have some feeling that this agony over exit is going to continue. It`s bad for politics and business but good for forex traders as increased volatility will bring profitability to portfolio

The chances favour a short extension - but it has to be short, otherwise UK will be in EU elections.

The market views the MP’s who are quitting their parties as a side show - for now anyhow.

If more follow suit then an election - which will add a little more chaos into the mix :slight_smile:

This is big news right? More chaos on the March vote, or less?

Since a second vote wouldn’t happen for months I think, does this mean an extension on the deadline if it comes to be?

There is a softening from the DUP on the T. May deal as last offered to Westminster - the shenanigans are around what was called the ‘legal text’ - i.e. the Tory attorney general’s legal advice to the Gov (usually not published).

Last time he advised that there was no way the UK could exit the N.Ireland backstop as written in the deal, this time he will cloud that advice as all good attorneys can.

Bottom line is that it will be a get out for the DUP and thus for like minded Tories who have consistently said if the DUP are happy then they are happy.

That group of tories are known as the ERG (European Research Group) - not allowed to be a party in it’s own right but ok for research purposes.

The DUP keep the Tory party as a whole in power - (the DUP are coming under pressure from their own grass roots at home when the hard brexit scenario becomes clear from an economic perspective in NI)

It’s all a long story but likely a deal as the market has been expecting this last week - hence the buying - if it fails then a GBP sell, if not then buy with caution…

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Clock is ticking. Getting ever so closer to the 29th. I can’t believe how little attention or action was put towards the border and customs issue between Ireland and Northern Ireland, this late in the game. That would have been maybe the first thing of many things to review and figure out. What happened to all of the smart people involved in this decision?

I like to say their charging the people with this screw up with legal jargon. Any who this issue I felt like was just continuously being pushed to the back burner and would be resolved when they got right down to it.