It’s really amazing to me. The history of that area, lives lost, and fragile undertone of the existing arrangement should have put it front and center, and not an after thought or something to mark off a check list. Incredible.
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They were definitely not thinking in the bigger picture or in fact they believed they would have it resolved is my take honestly. I don’t they think they truly considered the effect on a global scale or even just on a people to people level.
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That was 9 days ago - this morning the ERG (Brexiteer wing of Tory party) have said if the DUP are happy then they are happy.
DUP are scrutinizing the latest text and the attorney general has yet to advice - I would be extremely surprised if he gives a thumbs down.
The DUP will hold silence for a good part of today but again I would be very surprised at a thumbs down - they will be very happy to claim a victory and thus back the latest text.
The chances of this latest deal (same deal but with some added text) getting through Westminister are much greater than the last heavy defeat, could be a closer call.
Today could be more GBP buying
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In % terms, rises based on an anticipated deal could be even greater in EUR.
This is very true, the knee jerk is GBP positive but the market will take a longer view when the dust settles.
Today I meet with a customs ‘expert’ to help set up trading with my neighbours - strange old world 
As we know and they have repeatedly said the EU does not want Brexit
So here’s a question.- May’s deal is rejected. Subsequently no deal exit is voted down. Delay/extension request is voted up.
Then what happens if the EU says “Non” to the extension ? - Can’t leave with out a deal (voted against), don’t have one to leave with (voted against). - As far as I can see we would have no other option but to withdraw article 50 (can only do that unilaterally before 29th) and start again.
If I were the EU I would be looking at just that…
And running away from sterling!
A presumed deal would induce some increase, but the long term will be a slow bleed till the next vote. I would not discount the influence that rumors will have in this period though. The leading political figures are not very highly regarded right now, opening the floor for “inventive” solutions and actors.
The damage to the EU economies caused by a no deal Brexit would be far worse for them, especially Ireland. So I can’t see it happening. Either a deal, or an extension and then a deal, will be forthcoming.
I 100% agree, - but I also think parliament will paint themselves into a corner at the mercy of the EU if they vote as I described (which is highly likely if no deal today). - Which is a bit ironic really considering the deal objection!
From a purely personal POV I think this whole Brexit thing is a bit like some of my trades - seemed like a good idea at the time 
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Pictures make things nice and easy.
Tomorrow is an important day!
Pretty good play-by-play of recent events
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Like the flow chart.
I’m sure it’s been discussed but what about the other party to these negotiations? The EU.
Are they content to just sit back and do nothing or are they, at some point, going to step up
and start making (more?) demands?
I said this in an earlier conversation with a friend.
My money is sat on this outcome.
We vote for an extension, it passes. One of the terms is another public vote. We vote and NO wins, we do not leave the EU, but at a financial cost. Essentially this has all been a show and a waste of time.
If the public were split almost 50%/50% then how on earth do you expect parliament to do anything other than at best a 50% agreement?
I think the problem is parliament is not 50/50 its 20%,25%,20%,25%,10% !
I do think that everyone takes for granted the EU extension - and - good point @BaconSandwich I wonder if they could insist on a 2nd vote as condition for granting it.
As a business woman I wonder if Gina Miller still thinks a parliamentary vote was a good idea - yes, right and democratic - but a good idea?
From the GBP side I think it will rise as soon as there is certainty - how fast depends on what form that certainty takes.
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Watching all this from the other side of the pond —
I’m betting the powers-that-be in the EU are loving the grief the Brits are currently causing themselves over Brexit.
The worse this gets for Britain, the better positioned the EU will be the next time one of their members decides to bolt. Next time — when Greece, or Italy, or some other discontented member gets serious about leaving — Brussels will simply say, “Did you see what happened to the U.K.? That’s likely to happen to you, too.”
Theresa May will go down with the Brexit ship. That isn’t fair to Ms. May, but life is often unfair.
The cartoonist got it right —
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There’s always two sides to the same coin.
You say “the worse this get’s for the UK” - well, that’s an unknown, nothing is agreed, yet.
“Did you see what happened to the UK” - I wouldn’t count your chickens quite just yet, a lot of the bad news is simply scare tactics because of the unknown. Five years after leaving and negotiating our own agreements on our own terms and it could have been the best choice made - whilst other EU countries are stuck in the EU on EU terms.
It’s all a privado and dance right now - the world will not stop, the UK will not fail and the calm will come back to the waters, just like many many other historical events which at the time were made out to be just terrible.
I also think May has done a great job considering the opposition - only last night she could barely even talk because her voice was completely lost; I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up killing her - then you’ve got the likes of Trump sat in a chair with his fat face sending out tweets… I know who i’d rather support, lol.
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And the British lawmakers have rejected leaving with no deal…
Downwards on the flow chart we go!
^ My money is on this here.
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Our MP’s have lost touch with reality. They are now voting on stuff simply so that they can one day say to any voter or journalist, regardless of the issue, “Well, that’s not my fault, I voted against it” (“forgetting” to mention that they voted FOR it 2 years earlier)
They are now only concerned with avoiding blame rather than achieving anything.
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So, you have to get a deal. You really think EU is in a negotiating mood?
There is no chance of EU just saying “See ya’!” when the deadline is up?
Its possible the EU could reject any further negotiations and eject any request for an extension to the exit deadline, forcing the UK to leave on 29/03 with no deal. But that would be disruptive to trade and personal travel. But this would hurt the EU economies as well as the UK’s, and as the EU economies are mostly weaker and smaller, it would be odd if the EU engineered a no-deal Brexit.
Worth noting for non-UK readers that personal travel from the UK into Europe is a very big deal, as opposed to say the number of US citizens who travel abroad. At least 45 million of the UK’s population of UK’s 66 million population travel abroad each year, that’s 68% of the population, a huge number going to (or through) Europe. This is far more than the 30 million or so Americans who travel out of the US per year to all destinations, not even 10% of the total US population.
In the shortterm a no-deal brexit would be quite detrimental to the UK economy because:
- Imports and exports will need to go through customs - this will cause a serious delay resulting in lacking of essential commodities like food and medicine.
- New trade deals and taxes will need to be negotiated which may in turn cause the imported goods’ prices to rise and this will not be helped by the GBP’s price going down at the same time.
- A hard border with Ireland may (and most certainly will) cause additional issues.
- Like tommor said - the free movement of people and goods to and from the UK will be another major issue for the businesses and private citizens.
- Cheap labourers (the ones from East Europe - Polish, Czechs, Bulgarians, Romanians) will not be available or will have a harder time getting in due to the customs and legal hurdles that are currently not a big deal due to the EU regulations and free movement. Sidenote - here I am referencing the ones that come in legally, work legally and pay their bills and taxes to the UK but hardly ever get any benefit from those taxes because it’s cheaper for them to get treated in their home countries. Example: the bulgarians I know will come back here to get their dental work done - because it’s cheap.
In the longterm, leaving may prove to be quite beneficial, like @Falstaff said. However, it’s all a matter of negotiations and deals that are currently nowhere in sight.
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