How do you expect the Brexit vote to go tomorrow? DEFEATED

Its often said that politicians crave power.

That is true but in more detail they crave authority without responsibility. As in conventional public service, its not enough to just do a good job - that’s all you’re paid for and what you’re expected to do anyway. The real differentiating factor between who gets advanced and who doesn’t is how many bad mistakes you make. So a good politician (or a good public servant) does a mediocre job but avoids big decisions that might go wrong.

So right now almost every MP is taking the opportunity to vote against everything so that later they can evade blame - “Its not my fault, I voted against it.” (whatever it was that went wrong).

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Nigel Farage is somewhat less than impressed !

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/20/theresa-may-buckles-delays-brexit-will-do-best-tear-party-limb/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

I tend to agree - If that woman manges to screw it up - I shall Never vote Conservative again. There are actually a LOT of us who feel the same way.

Even in Germany, the EU attitude to the “deal” (or the lack of any sense from the EU negotiating “team” ) is attracting sincere criticism

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/20/german-alarm-grows-eus-dangerous-ultimatum-terms-britain/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

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Apparently the Bank of England is saying that most businesses are prepared for a “No deal” and the economy in uk is looking good

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/21/markets-latest-news-pound-euro-ftse-100-no-deal-worries-grip/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

Whereas it seems the EU and Gremany in particular are not looking THAT rosy !

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/22/shock-german-factory-slump-reignites-fears-eurozone-recession/

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Nigel’s party is a reasonable alternative? Is it the most viable “third” party? What do they draw?
10-15% maybe?

Mr Farage IS “Mr Brexit” - He has been a “Euro - MP” for years - listen to what he said 2 years ago in the Euro assembly

Farage speaks to EU when we voted Brexit

Farage tells 'em!

Here is what he said to them last week

Farage tells EU last week

Without Mr Farage - there would be no Brexit at all ! - He started it almost single handed - Cameron had to offer a Plebicite because of the attention he was getting ! His Ukip party was demonised by the political establishment and “liberalists” -

Winston Smith in “1984” had great hopes that the “Proles” would revolt against “Big Brother” - Well in the UK voting for Brexit and the USA voting for Trump in clear defiance of the establishment and the liberal media, we have come some way to the Proles doing exactly that !

He’s been on FOX News here in the states quite often and is quite impressive.
Is his Ukip party the 3rd most popular party there? They drawing more away
from Conservatives then Labour, I suppose?

Totally amazing how we have all been diverted by the socialist anti-capitalists towards main stream waffling - when we could be listening to people like him - here’s a compilation someone has put together - listen to it all and read the comments !

Farage is no mug - he’s an ex - trader and really knows the stuff we are interested in - he’s also reputed to be a “Free-man of the City of London” (that’s where the bank of England and stock exchange are - a a bit like your Wall Street )

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3SGL4ddRe0

Watch this Stan - Brendan O’Neil talks to Nigel Farage about the Betrayal of Brexit and what’s to be done about it. A highly educational interview which delvesinto philosophical issues aroung the Party system and the massive disconnect between us “Proles” and the career politicians which @tommor mentions above.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsII1nqctmc

Personally I would far rather have this man governing my country that anybody we see in or on the news !

"We will fight this forthcoming European Election on one word - TRUST "

Mr Farage left UKIP in December 2018.

He is a principled man and resigned from that party because their leader, Gerard Batten, took on an ‘adviser’ who has a pseudo name of ‘Tommy Robinson’.

UKIP are currently a fringe party in the UK with no MP’s, the last one was John Douglas Wilson Carswell who also quit UKIP in 2017 to become an independent.

Than you for helping out there @peterma, correct and fair as always :sunglasses:

Here’s another little compilation showing what some of our real “thinkers” have said about the EU as it developed from the “Common Market” over the years and some more recently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvKl3v7nEO0

I note that recently Farage and Moggy have been putting the opinion that the “Irish border” issue is really not a real issue at all and that there are differences already between Northern Ireland and Eire from a VAT standpoint and some others. They are saying that there is no real need for any hard border and that none of the three parties have said they will insist on one by being prepared to build it !

I am no expert on Irish border issues or the “Troubles” any more than on the “Highland Clearances” in Scotland - but I can see that these issues would have deeply injured the populations of both and ingrained deep resentments against the “English” and those who conspired agains their own countrymen to aid them.

So I would like to ask @peterma whether you think there could be a practical border without formal Customs posts ?

A little more watching of You tube vids brings up this little historical classic from 1975 Oxford Union.

As the poster observes the arguments for and against in 1975 were very similar to those being voiced recently, but interestingly since 45 years has elapsed, we are able to see the progress which has been made along the path with the “brexiters” forecast. Note also the forcasts of pain if we chose Not to be involved. Peter Shore’s speech I particularly felt sympathy with despite voting the other way at the time !

It all happened again ! Oxford Union 1975

This is an interesting point and one that deserves some thought.

In the olden days (during the troubles) there was a certain resentment, those days are long gone.

In my own business a great many of my customers are retired UK folk having moved to the Irish Republic. I asked one N England steel worker why did he choose Tralee, Co. Kerry. He said it was a toss up between the Costa and Ireland, apparently the locals decided it for him.

I hear similar stories most every week, last week it was a man from the South of England - he was telling me the best pub in the area of Co. Cork that he now lives in, “tell them the big Englishman sent you and you’ll get looked after”.

In July last year we went into a small country hotel in Roscrea, Co. Tipperary. After check in the usual destination is the bar, it was lunch time and the large TV screen was on. There was a huge roar coming from the bar - somebody had scored - it was England in the world cup.

Some of my family just back today from a birthday bash in England - their only rule was no Brexit talk - that i liked.

Anyways to the question - will there be a hard border? - all those who are saying no are politicians - even the leader of the DUP said recently that there was never a hard border (see my pic Feb 6th) - most people locally take what politicians in either UK, NI or ROI with a large pinch of salt.

Btw, last year I was doing some research as to why I was encountering so many UK retirees aside from the difference in house prices.

This was the answer I came up with:

https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/moving_country/moving_to_ireland/rights_of_residence_in_ireland/residence_rules_UK_citizens.html

Perhaps so - perhaps not ?

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/bloody-sunday-prosecutions-nothing-to-do-with-justice-says-belfast-army-colonel-37916672.html

I think sometimes things can remain unsaid or even unthought of for a long time - sometimes “Forgiven” and “forgotten” can’t quite be done that easily.

I have to say that my best mate at Uni was from Dublin and he took me to meet his Priest in the West End for a meal.

A lady I met on a forum several years ago was English and trying to live in harmony with nature on a small farm she and her husband had bought in Eire - before they went through the “double referendum” She was there for Land prices, fertile ground and a slower pace of life - but I know she was scared later about the amount of loans that Eire was taking from the EU and the “Paying it back” situation.

I have to say that with the actions of the politicians - whether “Remain” “Leave”, Conservative", “Labour” or any other variation these last 3 years alone, that large pinch of salt is a wise precaution.

However, I don’t personally see why there really needs to be a “Hard border” - Although I am old enough to know full well that it was in place all those years ago - though being “Independent” - Your countrymen tended to treat it as a bit of a joke sometimes :smile:

What’s to smuggle ? Apart from “People” that is ?

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I imagine this is still one of the biggest sticking points of any decision yes?

Is it plausible to have the UK still a part of the single-market and EU customs, but then give UK control of everything else? I think that’s what they’re calling a soft-Brexit. So the business and industry policies and deals are basically left as is, mostly “everything” else is controlled as the UK sees fit. It seems the longer and longer this goes on, the closer to the middle of the road the debate needs to take place for anything to actually be agreed upon. Is that a shared reality or not so much?

Aye from a business point of view that would make sense, generally business has little interest in everything else and the everything else over the years was always the domain of politics.

The brexit debate has blurred the lines and caused some business people and Tory politicians to diverge somewhat.

Even more strange - the representative bodies of employees (Trade Union Council) and their opposite (Confederation of British Industry) are issuing joint statements lately.

Important days ahead when a route through may become clearer.

Normally issues follow a “Normal” Distribution of opinion where the bulk of teh opinion is in the middle and a compromise can be reached with a little upset to some of the outliers.

This issue is not like that.

The distribution of opinion is a “U” like chart. so the middle ground has relatively few proponents. It is an issue of “In or Out”.

It is an issue which the population is 52% in favour of Leave - No “Deal” was specified nor expected in the question.

Unfrtunately the House of “Commmons” is split 75% “Remainers” and We leavers sincerely believe that the whole process has been deliberately sabotaged in co-operation with the EU “negotiaters”, Big business, Big Banks and “Globalists”.

Many British people now are saying they will never vote again if the betrayal is concluded. I Myself will still vote AGAINST the Conservatives (I am by nature a Conservative leaning voter)

Farage is hoping that it gets kicked into the long grass and we are forced to inv olve ourselves in EU elections. This he anticipates will result in such a huge backlash against any “Europhile” candidates that it will be impossible for “The Establishment” to ignore and will warn them of “Trouble ahead” - like it did for Cameron.

Whatever happens - it looks pretty certain that the people feel betrayed and are losing faith in the ability of Parliament to act in the people’s best interests as demonstrated by votes cast on the basis of manifestos ! The division of teh big Parties looks pretty certain and we now think some form of “Proportional Representation” looks very possible.

I heard that the Government have lost faith in the people which is pretty much the reverse of the reality !

It is reminiscent of a poem by Vertog (SP?) Brecht called the solution in which the Governent lost faith in the people and the “Solution” was mooted that the Government should disband the people and elect a new set :wink:

But make no mistake - WE are Angry !

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It’s now looking most likely that the Conservative Party will vote to preserve Connservative Unity - rather than to save the Country !

See what Mervyn King (Governor Bank of England ) has to say about Theresa Mays new International Treaty with EU (Usually called “May’s deal” ) The quote comes at about the 10 minute mark.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPFAZaYi3Ys

He is Not impressed methinks.

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There was only ever the tiniest chance of a Conservative government reversing a Conservative pledge to abide by the decision of a referendum initiated by the previous Conservative administration.

Pursuing Brexit means they only alienate the hard-line Europhile Conservative MP’s and voters, who are a minority, whereas ignoring their own referendum results and General Election manifesto would have alienated all Conservatives and undermined the party’s credibility for decades.