probability tells you only what happened in the past, lets keep a clear head and remember the broker is not there to help you, hes there to make money off of yours, which doesnt mean he can just take yours unless its some obscure system where they ‘bet the opposite trade’ against what you place, gods know whatever i have read here so far people do.
Your stop out loss level needs to be adaptive, more or less to the timeframe, but equally to the time zone you trade in depending on wether you do daytrades or week or months , or hourly its all different, if you were to trade the dollar versus the yen you would notice your stop levels can be smaller during tokyo/aussie only hours since volatility is a lot less and spikes rarely occur compared to trading during rush hour , which would be like london/new york and especially the crossover of those two. You get spikes that are a lot bigger during those hours than you do during tokyo-daytime (im speaking only for the pair i followed the most but im sure that somehow applies to all of them)
theres too many factors to take into account to be absolutely sure. I myself prefer to put in most during off-hours, while others like high volatility just because it gives high spikes. Who all has never had a trade on a major news event like a bernanke (or future yellen) speech to see your trade go right the way you would
it spiked out your stop loss the other way for just a minute?
its very complex and it needs constant adaptation, i dont think the best of supercomputers programmed by googles best combined with the top black hats and the worlds financial geniuses could come up with an absolute system that works on any situation, theres just too much to compute.
I can see how all of it is possible but i think iron will is one of the most important things to have, chart-statistics tell you what happened in the past, but they means of calculation only take the data over time as a whole, they do NOT take into account the actual political/economic/social situation in the world, hence they lack variables (which cant be computed at the being anyway), theyre pointers, general pointers that might guide you but i feel you need to understand per pair and i strongly feel mathematical probability as such is not the way to go when used by itself on this. Im not too good with names, i read a few great posts i think by goldenmember ? or goldenbear ? and maybe a guy name master tang ? or was it another one sorry for the confusion on probability.
probability shows you what happened in the past. The accuracy depends on the number of variables taken into account. In this case you can not just take a chart from 1950 to 2014 and extrapolate data and take it as a prediction. For instance, on my favourite pair, data from 1950 shows a post war japan. data from 2014 does not . data from 1995 shows a first US government shutdown, data from 2013 does as well. Data from 2008 has the infamous crash-cause while data from 2005 has not. Meanwhile in the usd/jpy theres the rise of china that happened as well as ‘emerging markets’ which werent there before.
All of these things are [B]not[/B] included in pure chart statistics so maybe i am quite elaborate in saying you cant have one without the other, the euhm … fundamentals or whats it called? im not very good at dictionary
im probably blabbering too much again without sticking to the numbers but you can blame that on my lack of formal education or whatever. Its probably a bit of an extreme example and i know retail forex wasnt available to john average like me in 1950 but its still the point i want to make, the situation is never included in chart statistics. Chart statistics take [B]all[/B] numerical date (no 1950 might not be there for forex) and they devise chances on that. Purely mathematical but i dont think retail forex dictates currency levels its too small for that. Retail forex wins on what happens, it does not create price levels. Similar patterns should be linked to similar situations. E.G. the us gov shuts down -> the dollar dips, thats high probability, not just o, it went up 1500 points it will retrace back to the 61 fibo now, just because.
did this make any sense … i know i dont make a lot of sense a lot of the time for some reason