So the debate on proof and evidence is pretty important. Here are my experiences so far and why I believe proof is needed.
When I go onto a thread hosted by a person who is promoting a way of trading I test out what they are doing. When it shows that the approach is not working with a statistical edge I return to the thread and inform the OP that I cannot get results anywhere close to what they are suggesting.
I am ALWAYS told to leave and take my negative attitude with me. I know I’ve been a bit negative recently but honestly when I point out my negative results I always do so with tact. None the less I am told to leave rather abruptly and rudely.
People here teach and inform others of what they call rues of the market place. Yet they are not rules of the market place. The vast majority of information presented on this site offers no edge to anyone in their trading.
So what I am saying is when Akea or anyone else hosts a thread about technical analysis. Then someone comes along and tests one of the things they are talking about out. Then shows the stats of the accuracy of that tools. I would hope that they would be praised for their efforts to analyse the claims rather than attacked for apparent criticism.
We are here to make money. If we keep holding on to belief systems that don’t work and offer no statistical edge because someone with a big mouth told us they work we will always loose. If sharing a system you NEED to be open to have the statistical analysis of it posted by someone else if your unwilling to do it yourself.
It is vital because almost every system on this site cannot and never has made anyone money. Because people follow them on the word of their creator and not the statistical accuracy of the rule set.
What tools? The system I offered this afternoon as a test, but you refused because there was not myfxbook? Else I don’t know what you mean. Are you coming back on your opinion, or is this oil on the fire?
True that! It would be silly to post something that you did not support or tested yourself. So I fully support that someone test the theory given and reports back on it. If the OP don’t like the message, it is new to them and they don’t like the results aka they don’t know that well what they have been posting.
I think it is key here that you tested it yourself! Everybody should do that! That is what helps to grow ideas… Somebody post an idea, others brainstorm on it or test it, results are shared and the next step in its development can be taken. Just don’t shoot someone down when they don’t over you a out-of-the-box solution.
As Toekan said you can’t test yours. You keep your actual analysis under wraps so to speak. Your thread seems to be focusing more on the philosophical nature of trading and unless I am mistaken I think you said you would not ever share your analysis at some point.
Speaking for myself, I felt badly a couple of times about one or two things I said. I love baseball stats, and a fellow named Bill James came along years ago and got people to look at many old ideas and ask ‘hmm, is this really true.’ if that is where you’re coming from I agree. If you want to say that test results should be verifiable in an auditable way, I totally agree and I think its fun to discuss. I am going to try to track a real dollar balance and tie the gains and losses to specific methodologies, and if you ever want to discuss the validity of the methods or my interoperation, then cool. I promise I have no ulterior motive other than wanting to test what might work. Have you checked out Chris Capre at all? His price action stuff is all based on historical studies.
I will be sure to present the tools I use without any “how-to” instructions, making it impossible for you to do tests of any kind.
If you are running around to all the threads, testing them, then what are you doing with your own trading? Sorry but that’s all I am wondering after reading your post
I’ve kept nothing under wraps. Those that follow the thread are picking up nicely on how I enter trades. And by the end of this weekend, they’ll have a firm grasp on how I exit trades.
But yes, there’s a huge mental compenent to my trading methodology. I wouldn’t call it philosophical as I would call it psychological.
If you take something basic like testing the 5th bar in h/l formations on daily charts, I’d bet the results are fairly interesting. While I’m in favor of the testing I’d hate to see an all encompassing list or mod that took the human element out of it.
I just lost a bet. I bet someone that it would be called: “Don’t asked me any friggin questions, just do the work.” I like your title much better, flows more.
I was getting caught up on this thread for some entertainment, and was about to give up since it was getting boring, but then I read this gem and it was all worth my while! Although your wife being on the rag has to effect the coin’s rotation somewhat…I mean all that negative energy has to slow down or speed up the revolutions coupled with the full moon and not to mention if the planets align! Also, are we always starting the coin heads or tails up? Someone has to demo and backtest this new “tool.” Maybe even publish a YouTube video or 2 or 27… Haha! And with that, my interest in this thread has returned! Thanks MG!
