Inner Circle Trader's Pro Traders Club 2012 - 2013 Series

[DodgeV83]

Hmm, it has broken below now…

Maybe it just wanted to tag the OTE one more time?

[ineedtolearn]

I’ve been short at the 1.63 lvl on the cable since the 19th, with a very very small position taking off small portions as it went down and retraced back up…I didnt really want to take on any trades especially around christmas time but it seemed to good to pass up, with the major resistance level, SMT divergences, some COT data etc etc…I pretty much only took it to build up my psychological strength, learning to trust levels and everything. Because it would have been very easy to just say “yea i WOULD HAVE traded that level because of the tools” but its a whole different ball game to be able to say “i DID trade and trust that level because of the tools” and that is something i’d like to work on

Great trade and great analysis with photos !!

Thx !!

[Vinster]

Did you guys hear it?! I got a shout out in ICT’s last video: “Some of you guys put an “S” on my chest…” That’s me. He was saying not to do that, but still I got a mention in the video. Woohoo!

[jonnycab]

Did you guys hear it?! I got a shout out in ICT’s last video: “Some of you guys put an “S” on my chest…” That’s me. He was saying not to do that, but still I got a mention in the video. Woohoo!

Poser

I still havent seen it yet, work yesterday combined with yet another Christmas dinner last night, up again this moring, back to work, not good

2 weeks off starting this afternoon, plenty of time to get a bit more learning done before the 7th Jan

[Vinster]

This last video set it in place for me. We now have directional bias. Cable lokks to have a hit a major S/R, with tanking yields, spiking open interest. Sounds like a sell program about to fall out of bed. Put the cable on the 1h and check the market structure. Every fractal since the 1.33 has been an OTE. YOu could have sold at every 70% retr, taken ast least the first tap and been building positions, scaling into this down. Guess what I’ll be doing in the next few weeks? Taking first 20-30 pips of the hourly OTE, letting the rest run with a trailing stop would mean you’d have some very pricey pips and no risk as of this morning. Even if 1h structure breaks, you have gotten at least your 20-30 pips bounce before being stopped out (this week there was no break in market structure). It’s hard to lose money when you have no risk.

I’m glad I found this thread. I’ll just say that much.

[mostwantedpips]

Read up (watch up?) on what ICT says about SMT Divergence. Essentially, you are looking for the signs that big money entered the market. If the EUR and USD are highly correlated, and one moved past resistance, where another bounced off of it, it can indicate big money just entered at the resistance level.

Hi thanks for reply. I thought SMT right @the beginning, but when you pointed selling pressure just around resistance i thought Hmm i haven’t see that before, as with smt concept we match highs and lows.
Great trades and nice explanations on entry criteria. Keep them coming

Safe trading

[TommyL]

Poser

I still havent seen it yet, work yesterday combined with yet another Christmas dinner last night, up again this moring, back to work, not good

2 weeks off starting this afternoon, plenty of time to get a bit more learning done before the 7th Jan

Who’s showing off now?

Off till the 7th!

Ha ha - enjoy.

[TopFroxx]

not related to ict’s teachings: looks to me like there are some big option positions with 1.32 strike, trying real hard to hold eur/usd above 1.32 for new york cut. (in 5 minutes). i dont have access to option data right now, but looks so obvious. at least some concepts of david jefferson (some of you may know that name ;)) are pretty useful at times.

[rod178]

Seems that they failed holding the 13200

Once H4 Market Structure broken it was all over (for me) on Longs.

Too bad I’ve only been trading demo over the last week. Some good money to be made

[TopFroxx]

Seems that they failed holding the 13200

Once H4 Market Structure broken it was all over (for me) on Longs.

Too bad I’ve only been trading demo over the last week. Some good money to be made

don’t have “real” charts available at the moment so can’t see what price was exactly at 10 am est. doesn’t matter anyways. big bounce of ksr, high formed mid week, price comming down nicely breaking ms. 1.32 was just holding the “flow” back until 10 am est. spit valve is now open again and the market can continue to “flow”. the long wicks on m15 at 1.32 were some real nice indicator that the price would continue it’s stream downwards after the new york cut.

btw i forgot to mention the most important thing. today is the 3rd friday in december, the end of the 4th quarter of the year. every year on the 3rd friday of the last month of each quarter a massive amount of options and futures expires. in germany these days are called “hexensabbat” (you can try to translate that, i have no clue what the corresponding english terminology could be :)), because prices are acting “crazy”, because the big money is trying to move the markets so their options expire in the money. so, at least 4 days a year having a look at nearby option strikes could prove very useful.

[DroneTrading]

This last video set it in place for me. We now have directional bias. Cable lokks to have a hit a major S/R, with tanking yields, spiking open interest. Sounds like a sell program about to fall out of bed. Put the cable on the 1h and check the market structure. Every fractal since the 1.33 has been an OTE. YOu could have sold at every 70% retr, taken ast least the first tap and been building positions, scaling into this down. Guess what I’ll be doing in the next few weeks? Taking first 20-30 pips of the hourly OTE, letting the rest run with a trailing stop would mean you’d have some very pricey pips and no risk as of this morning. Even if 1h structure breaks, you have gotten at least your 20-30 pips bounce before being stopped out (this week there was no break in market structure). It’s hard to lose money when you have no risk.

I’m glad I found this thread. I’ll just say that much.

Nice post Vinster.

I just started studying ICT and am wondering how and what to track for open interest. Could you do a brief explanation of what index your tracking and why. Also, do you know of a free charting website that I can get the open interest charts?

Thanks

[rod178]

don’t have “real” charts available at the moment so can’t see what price was exactly at 10 am est. doesn’t matter anyways. big bounce of ksr, high formed mid week, price comming down nicely breaking ms. 1.32 was just holding the “flow” back until 10 am est. spit valve is now open again and the market can continue to “flow”. the long wicks on m15 at 1.32 were some real nice indicator that the price would continue it’s stream downwards after the new york cut.

btw i forgot to mention the most important thing. today is the 3rd friday in december, the end of the 4th quarter of the year. every year on the 3rd friday of the last month of each quarter a massive amount of options and futures expires. in germany these days are called “hexensabbat” (you can try to translate that, i have no clue what the corresponding english terminology could be :)), because prices are acting “crazy”, because the big money is trying to move the markets so their options expire in the money. so, at least 4 days a year having a look at nearby option strikes could prove very useful.

pandemonium is a reasonable translation (in meaning) for hexensabbat. I am supposing some relationship to a spell (Witch’s Sabbath) being cast due to option expiry.

[rod178]

Fiber Short on H4 break in Market Structure at OTE

[DodgeV83]

SMT Divergence shows EUR strength.

Right when price hit the daily resistance from the high a few months ago:

And a spike up:

[DodgeV83]

I expect price to trade down to the 1.3500 level, to match that support level, then go a bit further down to match the other daily high and the OTE Entry Point:

[jinirav75]

So two different analysis (referring to the above two analysis by Rod and Dodge) give two diifferent directional bias? …I am a bit confused here…:31:

I expect price to trade down to the 1.3500 level, to match that support level, then go a bit further down to match the other daily high and the OTE Entry Point:

[minidiez]

@rod178

Fiber Short on H4 break in Market Structure at OTE

Hey rod178! I noticed you have the REF labelled in your fib. What level is that exactly?

[jonnycab]

Hey rod178! I noticed you have the REF labelled in your fib. What level is that exactly?

It denotes the reflection pattern for entry. Saves having to pull the Fib up to that level to obtain it manually.

[DroneTrading]

Fiber short I took this morning for a quick 22 pips on the first half and the second still running.
This is the 5 minute execution chart with daily chart below.

[peterma]

@DroneTrading

Nice post Vinster.

I just started studying ICT and am wondering how and what to track for open interest. Could you do a brief explanation of what index your tracking and why. Also, do you know of a free charting website that I can get the open interest charts?

Thanks

For free charts on O.I. go to barchart.com

To see how to set up the charts go to 38 mins on the Trading Plan Development Series Part 5:

Inner Circle Trader’s Trade Plan Development Part 5 - YouTube

For an overview of top down anylsis on O.I. Part 1 of the TPDS at 59.20 mins
Inner Circle Trader’s Trade Plan Development Series Part 1 - YouTube

For a teaching module on Open Interest see this entire video

Inner Circle Trader’s PTC 09/08/12 - YouTube

A common question is what effect has expiration of contracts on O.I. - answer here beginning of video

Inner Circle Trader 12/06/12 - YouTube

More info on O.I.

at 07.30 mins
Inner Circle Trader’s PTC 09/14/12 - YouTube

at 08.00 mins
Inner Circle Trader’s Market Review 09/16/12 - YouTube

That should keep you busy for a while:)