im not trying to sound like insulting jack*ss here but this PTC video was like joke to me … by telling that “we had some heavy news today and yesterday but it gave fuel to the upside so you should have bought every dip and ote u can find…” it sounded like you knew that Bernake will announce QE3 even before he did that . in that case why did u closed ur longs ?!
(and yes im annoyed that usdx daily 80.x support level failed to give a bounce to the upside)
maybe you weren’t trying but I think you achieved…
I need to admit that it does sting quite a bit to know that I nailed this amazing 270 pip move BUT for some reason closed my limit buy order before I went to bed last night, and ended up with - nothing…
It stings to a level that I had to decide not to trade today… would only end up in disaster…
To be honest, and this is obviously entirely my fault, my trading sucked quite alot since I went live;) But on the other hand I ended each and every month since February (when I started the tracking) in a profit. Not always a big profit, but always something… and I am still learning more each and every week.
I do believe to be on the right track, and this in turn is entirely thanks to Michael’s work!
I do also believe that he only taught us only the very foundation, and wouldn’t be surprised if I had a big “click” moment in my head sometimes during the trading plan videos or the upcoming forexmas videos…
I am in awe, how accurate ICT seems to be able to predict the moves. And as a newbie with less than a year experience and chart time, I can only hope to get to a level comparable as Michael after 1-3 decades of trading as well;)
I smell apple pie… this should cheer me up;)
cheers and a good weekend to y’all
Lehm, I personally don’t agree with your viewpoint. I too was watching the large OTE that was maybe hinting at a reversal, but to me the 1HR, 4HR and Daily MF/MS were looking bullish and so I traded the way I saw the PA. I missed the long entry yesterday by 3pips or so which was disappointing but a good learning curve too. It shows me my analysis was correct when applying the concepts taught here. I have only made a handful of demo trades in two weeks and 3 winners and a break even was my result. I accept I’ll have losses but I made the trades based on my own viewpoint (obviously based on ICT methods) and that is how I intend to continue and learn. Seems to me maybe you want a trade signal service. We have been shown numerous times how the technicals price in the news before it happens and we try and position in the same direction as this. Personally I know I still have tons to learn but slating the PTC video is not the correct way. Why didn’t you just email Michael and ask for a deeper explanation of what took place.
If Michael suddenly took down his videos and stopped posting how would you trade.
Eventually we all need to do this for ourselves - is that not the point as to why Michael shares this information?
I’m sure your just venting disappointment at a lack of trading this week and don’t mean to sound flippant so hope you take the above in the right way.
Were all learning! Lets appreciate the helping hand we’ve been given.
Have a good weekend.
i agree with that, thats why i havnt shorted it yet (only one trade i have taken this month was euro 2530 long).
thats not the case here at all … if i really wanted signal service then i would get it somewhere else and prolly lost my account with it … only reason you are assuming that is because you want signal service yourself. :13:
thats the reason i posted it here to get attention from him (i have sent few questions to him and got replied half of them… yes his father and jada jada we know it already)
then my entire life would collapse and probably i will end my life for good … (was that even serious question from you ?)
overall you went little bit too deep with ur post since [B][I]i do appreciate Michaels work and effort[/I][/B] but simply saying that buy OTE long before QE announcment wsnt nice from him especially when he dosnt even trade those days himself …
im not here to attack/inslut you guys … i just was expressing my feelings that it was most rubbish PTC video from him so far, thats all i intended to say. :13:
and simply because you like someone dosnt mean you have to suck up on him each time they make a new video/post :rolleyes:
Consider this, Lehm. If QE3 or other similar measure was not announced, instead of the sharp move down (prior to price shooting up) - akin to a Judas - price may have shot up the same amount, thereby invalidating the Reflection + OTE confluence, ultimately causing one to reassess that particular trade idea.
I have often times noticed big news events give their own Judas, much like we see during LO.
Here is where you can clearly see the fundamentals and technicals really lining up. Yes, it’s risky trading during these events, but big moves need fundamental fuel.
Also, we don’t know if ICT traded it or not, or was in the move prior to it unfolding; it occurred toward the end of LC, so still a valid KZ nevertheless.
As for not trading during such big events, I take it more as a lesson for us. We can make huge returns without risking our capital during these times, but that’s not to say they don’t male sense technically. Instead of going down for stops and shooting up, there could have been an equal probability going up and reversing putting in place an ITH/LTH. However, price action would probably have tipped you off to make a trade judgement.
Hey Lehm,
Have a good weekend and good luck! :60:
wihtout QE3 i think it would have gone down instead of going up (who knows) …:15:
[QUOTE=TommyL;396998][/QUOTE]
Right, but initially it[I] could have[/I] gone up. QE3 was announced and price fell down sharply (causing Reflection + OTE), THEN shot up.
Without QE3, price could have gone up first (Judas), THEN fell down. This type of PA could have invalidated the trade idea.
That was my point.
Clarified my previous post to better illustrate my point.
Did anybody get a valid entry signal for a long last night?
Looking at the entire week it seemed crazy that it could continue up but I didn’t see any other play. The big figure was broken. We had moved through the entire HTF OTE zone between 1.2800 and 1.3000. USDx falling like a rock. All flows point upward so I can’t argue.
Perhaps this is just my lack of experience but I’m searching for an entry signal for a long and it doesn’t materialize. Comes out of the Asian Range going up and basically continues north.
Maybe I need to get out of the mindset that every day will be a Judas or a reflection that is seeking out stops. I thought maybe market would seek out sell stops resting below the figure or down near the swing lows from yesterday, 1.2900 but it just didn’t happen.
I wish I could get my head around the Smart Money mindset. Why some days do they need to hit those stop areas of liquidity and why others not at all?
Manage a NYO scalp on the cable today. @ 1.6199 with very minimal risk due to it being friday and possiblility of profit taking.
Closed all at 1.62400.
pretty good week. cant wait to approach my analysis over the weekend to tackle next week. Its gonna be challenging!
Hey Kongzz…Took the same trade. I posted it on the other thread though.
The video was brief and short on words for a reason. You will see the pudding tonight lehm… recall my personal weakness is my over analyzing and when I am in I like to hold my tongue. It will be clear tonight… that’s a given. :57:
Was going through the Pro trader club videos of 2011. ICT was talkin about the Million dollar challenge in few videos and later i checked it with the post’s in the thread. Seem’s like None are trading/took the challenge except ICT himself.
Even though member’s aren’t trading Million dollar challenge or such, It will be awesome if we can do something like that. At least targeting a less amount, may be a 20K$ or such.
First of all this trading business being a lonely sport and upon that not having a interaction or some challenge or such like i mentioned above really bring’s down the activity. Posting in thread’s in here is good but as i mentioned in my previous post, having a chatroom or such where member’s discuss ICT concept’s will be very good. Not only to newbie’s but for everyone.
Throw in your opinion’s on this. Ignore this post if you don’t like it or such.
P.S - I’m not talking about the money particularly, but i feel that trading and posting those result’s here doesn’t make up much unless we have some target’s within a group and then posting the result’s accordingly will be pretty good.
P.S ll - I have already posted this post in trader’s guild thread, thought that few may not be over that thread. So i’m posting this in here. Not spamming.
GLGT :57:
i like the idea of a chat room where people who want to, can discuss setups as they develop. i mean it’s nice to post a trade after the fact and count pips from where entry was made, and most of the learning is from reading about trades and setups this way. but once the plan is set and limits are in the market, the market reacts and does whatever it does and the game is still played in the moment. Some people discuss trades they plan to be in, and some don’t, and its alright either way. Personally, i would want my trade idea looked at, grilled and analyzed because that’s one sure way to get more experience in less time. i would definitely sign up to that
good weekend all!
hey Fred, i’ll take a stab based on what ICT was kind enough to show us. There’s the risk on/off scenarios, in that risk off is when people don’t like risk, they keep invested in usd or convert from other currencies into usd, they buy bonds, demand is up, price of bonds is up, since coupon remains the same - the yield is down. Reverse is risk on, people sell dollars to but other assets, currencies, get dollars from selling those bonds, price of bond goes down, actual interest paid to the holder of such bond, yield, is up. So yields and us index move in opposite directions.
now with the first chart you posted, don’t understand what up either but the standard thing in such case is moving up to more data. Bloomberg allows compression of 3 year and 5 year, and so an overlay of 2,5 and 10 year with 3 years worth of data shows the 2 and 5 year curves posting comparable lows between periods of mid-July and first week of Sep, whereas the 10 year does look like a bullish divergence. indicates yields up and index down.
the second chart shows higher lows in yield curves for all 3 between july and sep, with pound and euro rising faster than usd. i wouldn’t know how to think of the cause for that, but i do recall Michael said pairs chase yields, so if there’s yields up for all 3 currencies then E/U and G/U would be up, which is kinda verified already 
'm probably way oversimplifying, but i tend to look for divergence at the end of larger moves v. inside swings, and also take into account the time a divergence takes to manifest in price movement
it would be nice to hear from folk with more experience on these interest rates, seems that understanding correctly what goes confers great trading advantage. hope this helps at all, have a good one!
thanks for writing this out mate!
unfortunately, I still don’t really get it;)
I do understand risk on/off and I see the relationships between the markets. What I need is more detailed understanding on how to get the info, what exactly to compare with what and what to make of it;)
Not sure if Michael will digg deeper into this in another installment, or if the info from the last video is already as far as he goes?
If someone knows about a book or something which diggs deeper into the subject of interest rates and such… I would appreciate if someone could tell me the title.
I do think that deeper understanding of this subject could have a huge impact on my trading performance…
have a good weekend y’all
cheers
Oh and by the way… Not sure why Michael decided to show us the balance of one of his accounts… it sure is impressive!
The biggest question in my mind after seeing it is: how to become a partner? I’d sure find 20 bucks somewhere to throw in;)
Or I could also provide the capital for a new “million dollar challenge” I will send you a grand and you send me 1M back after a while;) hahaha In the meantime… I’ll make sure my trading is improving.
Edit1: just want to make sure Im not misunderstood: I LOVED the first installment of the trading plan series! just still feel quite lost in the subjects of interest rates and inter market analysis…
from what I understood Fred, this first part is just an intro, brief review of what’s coming in next 5 instalments (not sure why part 7 is left out… but I do suspect, that will be the ‘‘icing of the cake’’ :27: ).
Thats why I hold my questions till I’ve seen the rest… ICT said that these videos contain everything he knows about trading, etc so would imagine, part 1 is just a sneaky peak behind the curtain… since I learned a lot of new things in part 1, cant even imagine whats coming our way… :22:
one is for sure, definitely worth the wait, our patience will be heavily rewarded folks! (saying that, there is another 6 weeks of painful waiting… aaargh!)
p.s. sorry, this rumblings actually has nothing to do with what you’ve asked 
ok, a quickie for Michael:
Which of these charts is closest to the one you showed in the video, A or B?
CRB ‘‘A’’
CRB ‘‘B’’
thanks for your time.
p.s. I may have similar question for crude and gold, but will see if I can figure it out myself first 
p.p.s. tons of SMT divergences jumping off these 2 charts, maybe we can use both for extra clues after all?..
It is actually a very satisfying answer to my question;)
If part one was really just a overview… then I’ll hold back my questions as well and will be more than happy to wait;)
cheers and thanks!
I saw the twitter regarding revealing Michaels’s profits on the recent price action, but then I did not see the info anywhere, did I miss a live session or something? Fred, you metioned ICT showing an account balance somewhere? Just curious and thinking there might be another resource out there that I am missing?
