Well you not the only one mate. I am pretty much where you are now, but trying desperately to succeed. I defo like the idea of going back and demo trading historical data say 30 days in couple of hours hr ect. THat way we can learn in a blink of an eye.
Although i found that when i had a demo account i couldn’t be bothered to watch charts or trade and did not really care much about trades, so i opened live account and now every mistake is a kick in the butt 
(not saying you need to open live account just my personality is such that real money must be involved for me to start paying attention
there are trade simulators that do just that. A software that loads up, goes back in time to a date you call, feeds info into the platform, you can open and close trades, at high speed. Great tool, can be found on the web, some of them free of charge.
Great. My google searches only gave me ways of loading historical data up in existing programs for backtesting.
I see RapidSP:
12 day demo. I’ll give it a try.
Thank you.
Exactly what I need, too.
Ideally I would:
- Pick a random date in the past that I am completely unfamiliar with.
- Load up trading data only up to that date
- Look up only up to that date the corresponding COT, interest rate, and other relevant data ICT has been talking about.
- Work only on hourly, day, or longer timeframes
- Come up with a trading plan from that data
- Rapidly move forward in time through the historical data to test your understanding of the data
- Repeat
Exaggerating a bit, but the goal of all this work would be to get out of the 1,5,15 minute ghetto of having your face planted in front of your screen every day hoping some pattern pops up for 30 to maybe the occasional 100 pip trade. And move on to trading with confidence the larger scale currency swings much less frequently but with much bigger payoffs.
Great points, sir. Try vhands trade. Its a free utility that lets you do what you describe. You can also set your s/r levels on high tf and zoom in and scroll slowly. To really do analysis correctly you need to forward test though. Write down your thoughts and predictions. Keep a detailed trade journal or trade thread. I post my trades on another site because when you post it, you will try to do it right so as not to be embarrassed. You really see how little you know about a subject when you try explaining it to others. I post here lot because writing my thoughts out helps me make it simple.
And the one shot is absolutely my goal. I will sit every morning at 5am searching to get in on the days range and I’m not interested in tooling around all day scalping for 10 pips when I can get 40 in one go. Every Tuesday or Wednesday I want to get in at the week’s high or low to catch the week range. One shot to get the whole week. Got it last week. Missed it this week but there’s always next week.
Check out the explosive profits video. Search on his YouTube page for it. My trading will never be the same again.
Great. I’m checking out the vhands thread on forexfactory.
Thank you.
Thanks all, I had this idea for a while and now hopefully it will come to fruition.
I just read through the ICT manual by BostonEJ (again) and I had one miscellaneous point to contribute and one miscellaneous question.
My point: I remember hearing during a random livestream that ICT only considers the key levels within 300 pips of the current price. I’m not sure if he meant 300 pips above and 300 pips below or 150 pips above or 150 pips below. ICT, if you’re reading this, can you confirm/clarify this point?
My question: What is the equation for determining pivot points? Is it still the same as it was in one of the first ICT videos about pivots?
Thanks. GLGT, everyone.
That’s a great package. Witch one works/fits best
The 300 pips I cant really answer. I don’t think you’re going to see moves that break the 300 pip swing in a day and I’d think you’d review new levels once they move a lot anyways. So its a moot point to me in my opinion.
Pivot Points:
Pivot Point § = (High + Low + Close)/3
Support 1 (S1) = (P x 2) - High
Support 2 (S2) = P - (High - Low)
Resistance 1 (R1) = (P x 2) - Low
Resistance 2 (R2) = P + (High - Low)
I got that from StockCharts’ Chart School. Some good information there.
Hope that helps.
EJ
Depends upon what you want to accomplish. I included Word and PDF files which discuss each Indicator, including links.
Additionally, some time ago someone asked, cannot remember who, for a way to visually drag stops and limits in MT4. Attached is the pack that facilitates this, plus a lot more.
I’ve decided to put aside use of these tools, for now, so as to not to be distracted from learning ICT material.
MT4 Drag Trade Library.zip (198 KB)
Trade Simulator.
EDIT: be aware that although simple to setup, eg compared to vHand, there are a couple of limitations
- can only be applied to one TF per simulation
- does not facilitate Limit Orders (which is ICT’s preferred entry method.)
Trade Simulator - LearnForex.zip (492 KB)
My stop loss was actually 20 pips which was 3.5% risk, a little high I know.
Fortunately it paid off on this occassion but I generally look for 2-3% max risk.
For the benefit of the brand new guys, this is my weekly analysis. It admits I don’t know what will happen but has a couple of plans for the two possibilities I’m expecting. ICT says you cannot listen to someone else’s analysis and expect to be a good trader, not even his. PPF and all the other guys who are making money do their own analysis and it doesn’t look just like ICT’s. Not everyone uses all the tools ICT does. It is okay to take the 3 or 4 you like best and that work for you, and ignore the others. ICT uses some of the things he learned from Larry Williams and rejects other things. He has developed his own holy grail that he has never read anywhere else and each of us has to do the same thing. I use some principles of Joe Dinapoli, James 16 and of course ICT who has shown me more than I could imagine. I don’t like indicators and will likely never use them to do analysis but that’s just me. Every artist has to eventually stop imitating their favorite master artist and find their own style. Use this as a hint of what you should be doing every week, not a guide for you to follow. My execution is the London open and finding the weekly range will always be my goal, thanks to ICT. This allows me to keep my day job (necessary evil at the moment) and make 2-5 trades a week to grow the account. Just having a weekly analysis, even if it is wrong, and a specific trade in mind, even if it never shows up, puts me way ahead of all the people who lose week after week. One shot one kill, baby. Thanks ICT. Thank you, thank you, thank you.
Last week’s candle was almost a doji. We did hit the top of the last consolidation area on the weekly chart but with the down pressure we see, I would expect it to penetrate a little further, before retracing up away from it. For this reason, I expect us to hit our target of 1.2620-30 this week before continuing down or pulling back up. The weak price action down makes me thing we will wander down, not crash down and that once we hit 1.2620-30 we’ll bounce back up. This means we might have pinbar weekly candle dipping into this price pivot zone. This green doji may have just been a part of the 3-5 rule: any time there is a higher TF candle of 3-5 in a row the same color, you are very likely to have the next candle be the other color. Well, we have a green now, so we can continue with the reds. Also, and most important, Friday London dropped 40 pips in 10 minutes. The entire EUR/USD harmonic in 10 minutes, and at the end of the day and end of the week. This is to me a VERY BIG indication that London got short Friday and will run the market down next week.
If the weekly candle turns out to be a pin bar, I anticipate the week to be: Monday up to 1.2760-80 and close back down, small range day. Tuesday down to 1.2620- a big down thrust and forming the week low, Wednesday-Friday a rally up. Below is the trade plan based on both pin bar and big drop scenario.
Weekly Bias: Down or pinbar up.
Monday: I’ll set a pending sell order at about the last highs 1.2750-60 area. I have another already at 1.2810 that I’ll leave. Monday we expect a run up to 1.2760-80 and an indecision day. Other than the pending orders, I will not be trading.
Tuesday: Asia ranges or wanders to S/R, London runs the stops above the asian range, the price runs down to our S/R 1.2620. I want in short Tuesday. I will take partial profit at 30 pips, move stops, and leave the rest in for a possible much bigger trend. If it looks like the market will be turning Wednesday, I’ll close the entire position. If Tuesday is an indecisive day up (to 1.2820, my ideal scenario), I’d expect a big drop Wednesday and never to return to that price until the new year.
Wednesday: Asia ranges afraid of making a new low. London runs stops below the asian range. In this scenario, I want in long Wednesday. Since this is counter trend, I’m looking for London to show intention of moving up, then retrace before I get in. Once in with the correct direction, we can expect the rest of the week to go up and I’ll set an ultimate TP of 100 pips or so.
Thursday Friday - keep moving up to week’s open or above at the 1.2820 area. If market held up Tuesday in the 1.2820 area, I don’t expect this level (1.2620) to hold and we should keep going down to 1.25 or 1.24 over the next few days.
If the week continues to go down after Tuesday, we’ll just look for London intention and get in in that direction. Last year, this week was a 600 pip drop and I want to be ready for that decisive move if it happens. Our next major S/R is 1.2500 or 1.2400. I wouldn’t mention 1.2500 (since it doesn’t have confluence agreement with any other major S/R) except that it is several psychological levels combined and should provide solid support for some scalp trades up.
Here is some sobering math about your account, and some advice to stay solvent.
If you woke up in the morning with no bias and randomly opened a position, assuming you had a fair 50/50 chance of winning all your trades or getting the stop loss hit:
Q: How likely are you to have a 7 trade losing streak?
A: Very likely. In 100 trades, the probability you will have 7 consecutive losers is 17.23%. If you make 3-5 trades per week, this can mean 2 full weeks of losing every day.
100 trades can be a day or two for the over-traders, or few weeks for a typical EA, or a year or two for the pros. As the total number of trades goes up, this percentage goes up exponentially, since more quantity trades tend to be poorer quality trades.
source: Probability - Coins - Ask the Wizard - Wizard of Odds
The chances of NOT getting a 6 trade streak, win or loss, in 200 trades is only 3.47%, assuming they were all 50/50 trades.
source: http://wizardofodds.com/image/ask-the-wizard/streaks.pdf
Theoretically that could be 7 losses out of the first 7 trades. That’s not likely but you could hit the lottery and lose everything. Many have lost everything in a lot fewer than 7 trades.
Can your trading plan take a 7 trade loss streak and you still have the funds (and heart) to trade?
ICT says: Trade small relative to account size. Every successful trader says this.
Every successful professional trader can take 7 losses in a row. More even. One successful trader said he traded so small when he was learning, it would have been nearly impossible to bust the account. Using these same 50/50 coin toss statistics, you are very unlikely to have 11 or 12 losses in a row so make trade sizes small enough to put you in that bracket of safety. On the other hand, a losing streak of 5 or 6 over a relatively short career is near 100% certain. Any trader hitting 7 full size losses in a row starts to reexamine his strategy or confirm that they are following it. ICT’s model allows for 7 losses in a row while making profits the whole time because of taking partial profit and moving stops.
ICT says: To improve the odds, wait for your kill zones, according to your plan.
Stay out of low probability time periods. In black jack, staying out when the odds are against you is called wonging, named after Stanford Wong a.k.a. John Fergusson. A wonger will watch the table, counting cards but not playing, during the low and negative count. He’ll jump in when the count is high, meaning the likelihood of having a face card is very high. This drastically changes the house advantage to being a player advantage. He steps out of the game again when the count is low because the house has the advantage. This is how the MIT teams (there were more than one) made boat loads as depicted in the movie “21”. They had team mates watch several tables and the wonger came in and made a ton of money on the hottest one.
In blackjack, if the player is playing perfectly and with standard Vegas rules, the house advantage is only about 0.5%, about the best in all of gambling. But math doesn’t lie and this 0.5% makes buckets of dough for casino. It’s compound winnings. But if the player stays out during the statistically bad times, he’s evaded the rules of probability, basically letting the other players on the table eat the low odds time periods. He will always have a much higher chance of winning and compounding the winnings. The wonger is stalking favorable odds, waiting patiently with his wad of money safely in his pocket, then takes the casinos money when the time is right. This worked because the MIT guys weren’t gambling but saw blackjack as a business to be taken seriously and soberly.
How does a Forex trader wong the market and stop gambling? Stay out until there is statistically higher probability of success. Trade during the kill zone times for your currency and strategy (that you wrote down in detail for yourself). Get into an established trend at an OTE retracement. There are a lot of ways to define a trend and in my opinion they are mostly all on about the same footing as far as reliability is concerned, but one thing is sure, a ranging choppy market in a low TF is statistically bad. Trading during NY close is bad, during NFP or interest rate news or just on a 5min chart at any time of day, without higher TF analysis. Very few make money doing that in an occupation where very few make any money at all. It’s where your broker makes money. Trends are common but not every day. One shot one kill, when the odds are in your favor.
Thank you!
Thank you rod. I downloaded it and will compare it to the others.
Fiber: Price at OTE from previous High range and HTF Resistance
Swing on Daily
Overbought in Weekly trinity range
If hourly closes down, 1H swing established
1.2600 is a previous projection from 4H H&S
If you want to short…Why not short the high as a turtle soup or false break type trade