If you bring up the AUD/USD pair and add the COT data, the large & small speculators seem to be positioning long, while the commercials are getting shortâŚ
ICT, is there a way to tell if price is going to run away from HTF OTE sharply without a retracement or if it will pull back for OTE setup once market structure is brokenâŚ
If you look at the Cable on April 30th we have HTF OTE but price just slammed lowerâŚ
If you look at the Cable on June 1st you can see we had many opportunities to get long with many retracements.
I believe the Aussie is kind of doing one of these things were it just keeps running away. If you look at fridays high I donât think it will give us an OTE from this high to which ever low it may pull back fromâŚ
Just curious and something I am trying to wrap my head aroundâŚ
Looks to me we have a long setup for a scalp on the Aussie. We just took out stops marked with the red Xâs and formed 5M OTE during the Asian Session. We have oversold condition on the 1Hour Stoch with SMT divergence between Kiwi on the low made today at S1 Daily Pivot. I entered around the sweet spot at 1.0530 and will set stop to breakeven and hold till we get close to my short entry around 1.0587 - 1.0600 area.
If you notice on the short setup the Weekly OTE 79% level converges with ADR, Fridayâs AR High, MR1, 80 level, and 1.0600, and or R1. This to me is a nice area to be watching.
EDIT: good thing I set my stop to breakeven really quickâŚLooks like I need to step away from the forums againâŚ:33:
I like the clean charts and the detailed openness on trades youâre taking/have taken.
Hope i can also post up some value-adding charts as time goes by
I got tripped up today but will put this in my notes for safe keepingâŚ
Itâs so obvious now but we have SMT divergence on Sundayâs high to todays high between AUD and NZD. If you pull a OTE from sundays high down to sundays low you get an entry before LO KillZone for a short which is the very high of the day. During LO KillZone if you pull a OTE from todays high to low made before KillZone you have LO OTE which could have give you several opportunities to enter during the Kill Zone. All of this was based off the 0540 Institutional Level converging with Fridayâs AR Low. If you pull your Fib from point A to C shown on my chart you get Projected Low which it has called very nicely.
Now I have to go into hidden for the next opportunity to snipe a big oneâŚ
[B]Trade Idea for Tuesday Sept. 18th 2012 on AUD/USDâŚ[/B]
As of right now we have a Stinger Setup on the 1 Hour chart, 4 Hour is showing trend following divergence for a long setup.
During the Asian session the news event setup a Reflection pattern at the 0440 support level and came off nicely creating a low for the week going into Tuesday, the key day for this to happen.
We are in OTE off 4 Hour swings and the 62% Level falls on the 0440 support level.
If we get down to 0455 I will enter my long.
The only thing that scares me is the 0430 level might have stops resting below it. If they would sweep below this low it would turn market structure bearish and everything I just said would mean nothing.
If we do get a good setup I will be looking at 0570 to take some profits.
Okay, just watched the PTC for yesterdayâs action and I loved it cause⌠there were my trades exactly right there I did pull my Fib from another low (wouldnât even think to use that high on mid-fig - learnin something new everyday!) but my entry were .3100 fig for Fiber in LO and .6220 for Cable in NYO.
Some questions regarding. I wodnât actually be trading Cable in NYO if I didnât get stopped on my Fiber trade. And if I kept my 30 pip SL that wouldnât happen but I tightened it up after the initial move up in LO before I hit my first TP (it wasnât hit at all unfortunately :p). I decided to do so based on what you said in one of the other videos, that if there is an initial move up itâs best to tighten stop/move to BE because if it moves all the way back to our entry and below from there, weâre likely wrong in our trade so no point to lose more than necessary. But maybe I did it too quick? Should I only move my stop when first TP is hit?
And one more question, of more importance to me I suppose. I noticed the divergence you talked about and decided I would trade Cable as it looked stronger (higher low, while lower low on EU and higher high on USDx) but am not sure which pair should I trade in those cases - the one diverging (as I mentioned, on the premise it looks stronger in that particular case) or the other one? Are there any rules for that or we should decide on our gut feeling?
I hope youâll find some time for clearing some things up here for me. And thanks once more for another great vid!