lets say you are trading cable and fiber, and lets say they have a SMT divergence…
If you want to sell: sell the pair that refuses to go higher.
If you want to buy: buy the pair that refuses to go lower.
(As a general rule of thumb)
Not sure if that answers your question…sleep is a commodity in which I am not as heavily invested in as I’d like to;)
cheers
That’s exactly what I was asking. And at the same time, exacly what I was thinking so far. But then again, ICT showed in his latest PTC vid that the divergence created opportunities for both stronger and weaker pair and that’s what I’m not sure about.
Same trade here bro…:57:
didn’t watch it yet…
yes most of the time you can bag pips on both pairs if a valid SMT is occurring. But if you follow the “rule of thumb” as I pointed out before, you have a good chance of riding the bigger move. How many times did I buy the wrong pair during SMT and had to watch the OTHER pair taking off 100 pips while mine moved 20 or so;) there are always exceptions of course… yesterday was one of those exceptions;)
According to the rule of thumb, you would have bought the cable which could have netted you around 60 pips…
had you bought the fiber, you could have bagged 90 pips… But more often than not, using the “rule of thumb” as mentioned in my previous post, will get you into the nicer move…
I did catch the Fiber long yesterday…BUT I entered with a limit buy order at the big fig, and at the time of setting my order, there was no SMT or second OTE for confirmation…
hope that helps…cheers
It’s interesting when you look at a 5 min chart on the fibre and cable. The market is in a clean the stop mode.
The vacuum is running, cleaning you up . lol
ICT your view on stop runnings is awesome. Thanks.
I had thought it was the opposite to Fred’s rule of thumb? If both eur and gbp were heading up, I thought that essentially if eur starting heading down while gbp failed to head down…that meant that the one first making the move down (eur) was giving the hint that the second of the pair (gbp) was accumulating positions before following and heading down.
Therefore I thought we sold the one continuing higher which would be the gbp in this case. I hope that makes sense. I guess I need to go back and find it in the vids.
Could anyone tell me the Video in which ICT talks about the yield curves in bloomberg and stockchart’s sites ? I lost few videos and couldn’t find which one was that.
P.S - I’m not talking about the plan development series. It was prior to the plan development video.
It was the Interest Rate Overlay Tutorial. It was one of the first videos from last years series
Got it. Thanks for the help.
it’s enticing to sell the pair that hasn’t started on the way down because it seems it has more room to fall but, with trading, if it looks good it’s probably the thing to not do 
the pair making the first move down is already being sold heavily by the people in the know
Note the Z day formation on the Cable today using the same concept explained the last two days.
Fiber slipped under short term support levels and not the swin projection down to MS2 for today shoud price trade there in LO and or NYO… might offer something of interest.
No rush folks… reach for the low hanging fruit.
GLGT :57:
Is there any way you anticipate an upcoming large range day? Like after x amount of small ones. Or if LO or the Asians session is very volatile?
so for instance this week in the pound has been tight. and tomorrow (or thursday) is the retail sales release with high impact it should be building up to that?
Speaking of the pound. Have a look at the daily and weekly open interest, there was a sudden drop (>20%) suggesting the pair should move higher.
A possible confluence is the seasonal tendencies graph, which states: “The strongest buying opportunity is mid september”
Just going through my morning analysis here and I notice open interest and volume has made a sharpe decline on the Euro, British Pound and USDX Futures.
Does this mean the trend is weakening and we could be looking for a reversal over the next few days/weeks?
Or does it represent commercial short covering since we have been in a range over the past few days?
Thanks for the answer before I managed to post the question! 
Actually I’m using barchart.com for these graphs, they contain the info as well.
For instance the graph for the GBPUSD:
B6Z12 | Commodity Futures Price Chart for British Pound December 2012
I must admit that I looked at pricecharts.com, but when clicking on the 30-day trial link, I was redirected to secure.barchart.com, so I decided to put some time and effort in investigating the (free) offering on barchart.com.
Essentially they look the same to me, you only need to put some effort in drawing the charts yourself. If you register for a free account, you can save the graphs though.
the question I have now is. how are ALL 3 going to go up? if the dollar goes up the gbp and eur should go down. this might be a question for supertrader. I just looked at my charts Saturday and i didnt notice this…
Indeed, a little foggy to say the least. The 5Y Treasury failed to make a higher high, suggesting yields will drop, USDX will go higher. Also, the CRD is declining, suggesting USDX will go up.
But indeed, you cannot have higher USD as well as GBP
When in doubt, stay out. I’m sure all will be so obvious in hindsight 
Are we going to see a bear move soon ?
Divergence in the US yields (2y,5y,10,30y)
Divergence in 5 year ylds of Germany and UK compared with the US
Also EURO futures chart when we can see drop in OI and Seasonal tendency and also Market sentiment being bullish atm, Williams% OB.
Let me know your opinion’s.
Thank you.
