Oh well, that trade will buy me a case of beer, it hit 42C yesterday. :(:
It becomes trading on the precipice at $1000 per pip. Maybe one day.:51:
EU breaking Asia highs, GU not following suit (on 15m timeframe). Is this a precursor of EU moving higher or is GU in the lead?
USDX breaking Asia lows so 2:1 meaning GU should follow higher as well?
:18:
those are good trades! i once took the bottles back and got me 5cents/piece
Tarri, GU may or may not follow higher and EU could continue or fall back into range. The tools indicate probabilities, not necessity for the market to do something.
if youâd like to orient around a support/resistance level, watch price reaction at the level, whether holding or not. Look for higher lows and break of resistance if you like to trade long. And lower highs, break of support and resistance holding if you want to short
Ok, so you mean to say that in this case SMT divergence helps in determining whether a level S/R might be broken or not instead of confirming a bounce (what I was looking for from the 1.30ish level).
Did NFP come out an not move the market lol?
Holly Grail is Holly Grail. If u catch 10 of them a year on big account u dont need to do nothing anymore.
Come Monday Iâll probably be bullish Euro - fibre daily at sweet spot, pin bar forming at resistance usdx daily (draw a horiz line at the top of todayâs wick) - so anticipating formation of 3 bar swing down.
Back to fibre daily - obvious bounce off resistance and big fig, nice little hammer forming.
And to cap it the bond market reacted favourably as did not the usdx to NFP this is divergence - they are corellated - (exact reverse scenario as last NFP the bond mkt proved to be right)
The reaction was more muted this time round - so Iâll be cautious.
This is the problem with holidays - Iâll probably wait until tuesday before doing anything
both EU and GU had major falls into their own major levels, 1.30 and 1.60 respectively. It was the perfect place for at least a bounce, and we received it with the news. personally i believe this to become a reversal level, though i stand shy from stating a direction opinion because 've been often wrong, and each trader is better off trading what they find to be their image of the market. What the market does at this stage is quite uncertain in terms of smt, cable is sometimes very dramatic and waits for fiber to go away then catch up very quickly. Other times it wonât catch up that quickly because of offsets in EUR-GBP pair, which is something not often mentioned.
the way i would have used SMT, at key level 1.30/60. If one pair would have pretended to break through and the other didnât, then good indication one is accumulated and the other pushed through for stop run or other reasons. As to what they do on the 15 min chart with respect to Asia range, i donât believe it is terribly significant information for an entry in this situation
This should not prevent you from trading an opinion, PROVIDED you do the entry right. itâs been said many times a trader doesnât have to be right to be profitable. Well yes and no. Does not have to be right on direction, but absolutely must be right on the entry. Right entry level will save many a bad analysis on market direction. while a bad entry will generally ruin any good direction analysis because of volatility and pullbacks. Hence my comment on decide a direction, and trade one side of a S/R level accordingly⊠on my end i decide direction based on what higher or lower swings i can see on the chart.
hope this is more clear, then my prior three liner 
Basically closed out both portions @ 20 pips, 50% @ 1.3035 on the first drop, then after I was nearly stopped out, closed the remaining 50% @ 1.3035.
I was expecting some more profit taking to maybe reach towards that 1.3020 level, but 2:1 ratio still not bad.
Will be interesting to see what happens on Monday. An initial drop to 1.3020 or so could entice me in for a long now that weâve broken MS to the upside on the 15M TF.
Not to mention petermaâs comments on the bonds (I always enjoy petermaâs bond market commentary, its an area I want to improve upon this year!)
Hey Folks,
I was messing around with days to trading and hour of trading. And I made some analisys about the week H/L formed for a particulary week. So, the conclusions are:
»»44% of the time the Sunday, Monday and Tuesday posted a high or low for the week;
»»46% of the time the Thursday and Friday posted a high or low for the week (probably because of the weekly range fullfil)âŠmakes sense lololo
»»59% of the time the a high or low was posted in the period between the 00:00 and 15:00 (NY time) (includes the London Open and NY Open).
The study started in first week of May/2011 and was about the EURUSD pair.I used the Oanda feed.
I donât know if someone had already done this. Anyway, I believe that with this info,a good entry technique (OTE rules:19::19:) targetting and MMâŠwe could make a living.
Hope this helps.
Thanks ICT all your help to us as aspiring traders. I just love your concepts particularly, the Market structure concept.
BACKTEST_EURUSD_WK_H_L_r04.zip (27.1 KB)
Hey guys,
I have a question about COT data. I am busy compiling historical COT reports into a spreadsheet so I can graph the changes over time and view what kind of âprogramâ we are in (buy/sell). I was wondering what we can track with COT. I am going to the CFTC.gov website > Market Reports > Commitments of Traders and then selecting âShort Formatâ under âChicago Mercantile Exchangeâ. Is this the correct place to get COT data based on ICTâs methods?
I am grabbing the data for âBRITISH POUND STERLINGâ & âEURO FXâ in this report. Are these correct as well, where is the correct data for the US Dollar?
P.S. I know I donât need this to be a successful trader, but I have OCD much like ICT and like he would say I am doing this, âfor the sake of completion.â
Thank you everyone! Appreciate it!
Took both longs today on EUR & GBP, a little risky granted as I was leaving the house an hour before the NFP.
Filled @ 1.3005 & 1.6020 respectively. Going to hold these as I have reduced a lot of risk as well as taking 45 pips out of the Fiber. Cable still no profit taken. Iâm hoping for another move up next week as we have quite a gap to fill with little resistence in the way. Overall Iâm bearish so looking to short at some point to get in sync with the downmove. (Thatâs my plan anyway)
Entries based on OTE / S&R / Trinities using EUR/USD GBP/USD & USDX charts.
Have a nice weekend everyone!
Jonnycab - I use the bond market much like a rearview mirror before making a lane change, If i see long clear space (nice defined divergence) Iâm ok with making the move - this time round there was some div but not as definite as I would have liked.
Todayâs div could be more to do with many bank traders not back until Monday. - but it is an area that I will also focus on more this coming year.
You reminded me, a few months ago I bought the Larry Williamsâ Secrets of the COT report book which is suitable for this topic.
Iâd only got around a 1/5 of the way through it then and then just picked it up for an hour while the family were out.
Seems really useful so far and Iâve still got around another 3/5 to get through.
OK, I chickened out as I didnât want to hold for the weekend, in addition Iâve had a poor week as I mentioned earlier through trading a gap on the GBP / NZD on Sunday at the market with no analysis and suffering an immediate 20 pips spread. So as these two trades bring me to 6.5% growth from the week Iâm going to cash in and be content with turning a disaster aroundâŠ
Lessons being learnt and this is why we donât quit the day job without being good for a few years consistently!
Risking too much and trade management⊠my demons to overcome!!!
On a side note as I generally browse the forum on an Android is there a way to like posts on this?
EDIT:
As pictures are poor I exited at 1.6076 & 1.3080
You are wasting your time doing that since there are websites that do that freely for you. Check this one and tell if it was useful. GL!
I dont think so, the iphone babypips app doesnt seem to support âlikesâ either from what I can see, unless Im missing something!
Nice trades today!
In your sample,
- Looks like we are most likely to have the market H or L on Friday. This makes sense because the market went where it wanted to as it did today.
- If weâre turning early in the week as in Monday or Sunday combined (the same day on my platform) the market will turn about 30% of the time. This is the highest odds of getting the market top or bottom according to your reasearch.
- Wednesday at 9.8% of times turning means Wednesday is usually the same as Tuesday. Wednesday is getting us to Friday from Monday and Tuesday and doesnât tend to change the weekly direction. ??? I guess.
I would love to see the probability of the Lond/NY train going in opposite directions for each day. Mon/Tues - 23% of time sees a direction change. Tuesday/Wed - 45% of the time sees a direction change. It might show on which days the house advantage is least and lets the blackjack players run the table. When I get to put my life on pause, maybe Iâll run the numbers.
Nice post.