Inner Circle Trader's Pro Traders Club 2012 - 2013 Series

I didn’t think so, I looked on work phone too, which although much easier to browse on, couldn’t find a like option…Nevermind.

Yes you too on the trades. Pick up properly next week and hopefully get another chance to re-enter.

Larry Williams would disagree with you.

This is the link I use. It has easy links to many COT charts.
Current Commitments of Traders Charts

This link is from the site of the guy who wrote the COT bible. He doesn’t show open interest but has his COT index on the chart.
http://commitmentsoftraders.org

Yea, the trading today was down to my lack of patience and ignoring the rules :stuck_out_tongue:

I should have left it, Im just glad I didnt get burned! One thing it does is help to hone the trade management side of things when you realise you’re on the wrong side of the trade.

Im going to make a conscious effort to stop over trading. The two good trades this week on Wednesday and Thursday more than covered a 30 pip weekly target. I didnt need to be in the market at all today. As we all know, the market will give you plenty of opportunities week after week :smiley:

Yes at least it was profitable!

Trade management is a big area of improvement for me too. 50pips is my weekly target for this year so a real need to re-focus. I actually started back on the What Every New And Or Aspiring Trader thread again after Sunday’s loss. Going to redo all the videos from the start again.

We’ll get there I’m sure…

I don’t use the babypips app on my phone. So basically surf forum through the web on my Android phone. As long as I am logged in to babypips site I can “like” posts or make my own posts. Hope that makes sense.

Hey, I’m hoping to tap into the collective knowledge base:

I’m going over my notes and want to make sure I review everything on Seasonal Tendencies, so far I have a little in TPD Part1 Module 2 (Million Dollar Futures Insights), a mention in TPD Part 1 Module 6 (Anticipatory Stage of Analysis). But that is it.

Is there any more or other resources that can help with the concept and what is to be expected?

Cheers all!

[B]===>[/B] http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/49172-glossary-ict-terms-abbreviations.html#post428121

Yep, get what you mean and just used it. Shame as the App is good to browse on but doesn’t have the functionality as the web site does. Thanks Leeote.

You might also check out these posts: (Babypips & the ICT threads are unbeatable :))
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/36328-what-every-new-aspiring-forex-trader-still-wants-know-470.html

thank you very much. i wanted to do this kind of backtesting myself sometime, but don’t really have the time at the moment. i love it. you can create “weekly roadmaps” with this info. for example i just created a “template” for late wednesday or thursday LO. that is, if wedneyday posted a new high or low for the week (compared to the high and lows of sunday, monday and tuesday), look for an entry point (ote and whatnot) on wednesday afternoon or thursday or friday, which will target a break of the high/low formed on wednesday.
crappy explanation, i’m sorry. here you go, a crappy illustration as well :stuck_out_tongue:



This was my trade yesterday on a demo account…one of the entries is a bit high but got out with 30 pips and the white lines are where I expect price to go…We are still bearish on 4hr and daily,so I would take caution as to where to really close my trades…but what do you think guys?

Totally agree

Correlated Pair (SMT) Divergence can be dynamite when properly utilised. It is my favourite tool.

Follows are some random, somewhat unstructured, quotes from the forum, related to Correlated Pair (SMT) Divergence, that I’ve saved for future reference. These may be of use for those still getting their heads around the subject, which is not automatically intuitive.


ICT Correlated Pair SMT Divergence

Try comparing the candles or bars at respective highs and lows between the Cable and the Fiber… and not use the line chart. This might be easier for you to see the divergent nature the SMT highlights. The SMT divergence alone is useless and will only result in you frustrating yourself looking for it when price is NOT at a key price level to reasonably anticipate it’s formation.

Put in a layman’s terms:

SMT will form bullish divergence at Pivots, Fibs, Old highs now support, previous week, month Highs and Lows etc… if you are in a Buy Condition, look for SMT to post a Bullish Divergence in London Open at lows between 5:00 - 9:00 GMT… as a example.

It will come if you practice hindsight examples repeatedly daily for a few weeks. This is not your common technical application… but grasp it and the vault combination is one more number deciphered!

GLGT

Read more: 301 Moved Permanently

If I suspect the Cable is about to rise, should I check to see that the Fibre’s lows were going higher? Is that what you mean by a bullish divergence?

I take your point about practice making things clearer in the long run, I am just uncertain what it is that I should be practicing with SMT.

And since this is my first post to you, I should add that I am grateful for all the effort you have put into this thread and the patience you’ve shown.

Read more: 301 Moved Permanently

Smart Money Tool

I noticed that some of you have difficulties interpreting the SMT. It is quite simple. If one pair is making lower lows but the other is failing to make lower lows…look for higher prices (in both pairs). What happens is that the pair that is not making lower lows is accumulating (more buyers are entering the market). The reverse for distribution: if one is making higher highs but the other is failing to make higher highs look for lower prices (on both pairs).Th one that fails to make higher highs is under distribution (more sellers are entering the market). Of course you shouldn’t trade on this indication alone, look for strong support/resistance levels where the divergence is acknowledged. Larry Williams also explains this in his book: The secret of selecting stocks for immediate and substantial gains

Read more: 301 Moved Permanently

SMT is looked at only Support and Resistance levels. If price of GU and EU is at a strong support level , then look for divergence in price to go long . Similarly when price is at a resistance then look for divergence between the prices of these two to look for shorts.

Perfect example would be 13 Jul NY open session. Time around 1200 GMT . Look at what GU and EU did. EU was stuck at a price , infact moving down but GU was moving up. Both were coming off support levels. That was SMT divergence at play. One took a long on both EU and GU and made a cool 60 pips on EU plus 90 pips on GU.

Read more: 301 Moved Permanently

SMT is something short I came up with for Smart Money Tool or Technique.
It assumes Price Action will reveal the Accumulation and Distribution of the largest most capitalized Market Players in the business… as their sheer volume… will leave tell tale signs in the Price Action… at specific predetermined Key High time frame levels.

General rule of thumb:

When looking at Support plays or “buys” - consider the pair that fails to make the lower low respectively.
Premise behind this: The pair that fails to drop lower, it is being bought and hence, not willing to go lower… this is essentially “Demand in Operation”… anticipate Higher prices.

When looking at Resistance plays or “sells” - consider the pair that fails to make the higher highs respectively.
Premise behind this: The pair that fails to rally higher, it is being sold and hence, not willing to go higher… this is essentially “Supply in Operation”… anticipate Lower prices.

All this is with the assumption you are indeed at a Key Higher Time Frame S&R level in the first place… otherwise you are hunting Unicorns… they never are in season

Read more: 301 Moved Permanently

The Key Levels determined by way of the Monthly - Weekly and Daily are essentially very static… by that I mean they will be “valid” for along time… even if they are broken intraweek. This is where the highest probable setups reside… keying off the Higher Time Frame levels and not so much on the intraday levels.

Read more: 301 Moved Permanently

as ict said …you have to be stalking a buy or a sell …and then the divergence will maybe give you added confirmation that a buy or sell is on the cards…

Read more: 301 Moved Permanently

You look for SMT divergence at key support and resistance levels. If the SMT divergence occurs during a key time period such as the london open or new york open, you may have a very high probability trade.

As for spotting the SMT divergence, most will use the 15M TF for intraday setups, or maybe the 1H, but it does occur on the daily time frame too.

Check out June this year on the daily TF, where the Fiber made the lower lows, but the Cable did not (from memory - as Im not at my charts)

So as with quite a few ICT tools/methods, they will work on most time frames if they are used correctly (in this case, at key S&R)

If you are trading Cable or Fiber, use those to spot the divergence along with the USDX.

Read more: 301 Moved Permanently

You want to see the respective Highs and Lows between the two pairs you monitor. The SMT is fractal like all my methods… what fails on one timeframe will to a greater or lesser degree repeat higher or lower in timeframes. The E/G is like the green on a Roulette Wheel… you can bet Black or Red… but it’s not a 50/50 odds… Green can nail you!

The SMT is a selection/confirmation tool. It should be used on the basis of a Key Price level and nothing more. Stick to comparing highs and lows at S&R derived from 60 min and higher… and live there. It is enough… trust me

Read more: 301 Moved Permanently

Remember SMT divergence is a trend breaking indicator. At the 12:08 marker you would imagine on the left side of the chart (not shown) that we have been in a good up trend, making HH and HL. When these pairs finally change direction, one of them will break market structure first and it could be either pair. In the scenario he presents, it is the cable that dives first failing to make the HH as the fiber does. If at a key S/R, this is a very strong indication that both pairs are about to tank. The divergence occurs because one or two (of the 15 or so total) deep pockets has to take the fist position short, this time it was on the cable and it creates a little crack in the correlation. The other banks see the key S/R and quickly get in line with the leader and correlation continues again. To answer your questions concisely - both are getting sold, yes the fiber has a judas swing but big dollars in the cable first is what created the SMT divergence (in his example). We get short and hope big dollars also move the fiber.

I think the type 1 and 2 divergence is explained pretty well in his short term trading video but he also mentions those terms in their “also-known-as” forms. Google that and you’ll see it. If you look back a few pages in this thread, someone posted great type 1 and 2 divergence screen shots and stinger shots.

Instead of the indicator, better to get the actual USDX chart.

Read more: 301 Moved Permanently

This is exactly what I used for my short entries last week: Post 437322

Combined with the Market Structure concepts for potential TP levels. Dynamite is the word! Brilliant stuff!

That’s pretty much what I was looking at although I did exit the trade on Friday, so will look to maybe get long again to those levels but again, same as you, presently still bearish.

Good luck.

Hi PipARush, thanks for your thoughts.

So, the way I’m currently looking at the market is simple enough in that it hasn’t broken down enough yet according to the way I trade, so therefore my weekly/monthly timeframe target of 1.3500 still stands.

The fib I’m referring to is from the daily chart on the entire previous move higher.

I appreciate your concern about what the market wants and doesn’t want, but I’ve been doing this long enough to know not to become attached to any particular trade. This is my target, as explained above and not some emotional commitment I have made. If this current move breaks down, I simply am out and it’s time to re-assess… stay with the flow :slight_smile:

Great to have such a learning environment as this, enjoy guys!

Cheers

First of all i would like to thank ict
I have learnt so much in the last couple of months , i’ve already been through What Every New & Or Aspiring Forex Trader… Still Wants To Know.
And just started The Inner Circle Trader’s Millionaire Traders Guild but can anyone point me to where i can learn pivot points cause i never learnt it and im at a disadvantage when ict is doing his reviews with pivots.

thanks

Risk reduction video is coming out soon.

So in anticipation how do you guys manage risk?

I’m taking a different approach. I know ICT and many of you take off a % of your position at +20-30 pips then manage the rest. I’m abandoning this approach now because I’m no way near accurate enough to be profitable this way.

In the early video “Forex Risk Management” there is a really vital point made about risk and reward. That if your R:R is 1:1 then you need to be winning 60% of your trades to be at break even. I’ve noticed that when I take off 50% of my position after 30 pips or so then generally if my original target is hit i’ll be at a 1:1.X risk/profit ratio. (The X being what ever percentage profit the 20-30 pips was) Where if I left the total volume on the trade I’d be around the 1:2 mark.

I’m also abandoning the 20-30 pip TP rule because the majority of the time that price makes it back to this area when I take a trade it goes on to hit the actual profit target that the analysis has shown me.

As ICT has said many a time the 20-30 pips “Gives you that winning feeling.” “You’ve bagged those pips and now you cannot loose.” I’m actually now of the mind that I don’t want those 20-30 pips. The winning feeling is not needed. They generally offer me a return of 0.2-0.3 of my risk if I take some money off at those points.

I would much rather get a risk:return of 1:3 than 1:1.7 for example.

That 1:3 ratio means i can loose 2 trades of equal risk and then be break even with only one win. If I had a R:R of 1:1.7 then I would be down if i suffered the same losses. (Not taking into account $% per pip.)

So i’ll no longer be taking smaller profits the way ICT does until my percentage of winning trades hits the 80-90% area. I’ve seen on the demo results ICT posted that he’s near on 100% winning or break even consistently. With accuracy I can see the reasoning of taking some profits after 20 pips.

HI

I was trying to set up the cot indicators,i cant post links but its post #5145 by shaunfx in
The Inner Circle Trader’s Millionaire Traders Guild thread

ive managed to get it to show up til feb 2012…i dont know where on the cftc site i go to get the updated csv file and how to go about updating…i thought i followed the ‘read me’ file to the letter but something im doing is wrong…please can someone help me get set up so im up to date and can update myself in future…help wil be greatly appreciated…

Thanks Guys, this place is invaluable!

I had not checked that thread for a few weeks, I thought it was just a glossary, but Clint has done soo much work to it !