Inner Circle Trader's Pro Traders Club 2012 - 2013 Series

[Vinster]

Hello.
I’ve entered long at the white aroow mark i.e 1.3108(OTE) and some some partial profit’s at 1.3128. Was stopped out later when price hit BE.
Does any one have a clue why prices reversed ? is it cause the resistance at 1.3120 ??
I couldn’t understand why prices fell so fastly…

My opinion:
We were at a confluence resistance. Monthly pivot point plus 386 retr of last swing plus mid fig. A good confluence level is 10 or so pips in a tight region. You are trading the monthly pivot, I’m trading fib, the next guy is trading mid figures and before we know it, the whole market has turned. I think this is in line with ICT’s concept that support and resistance trumps everything else. This is one of those days when we wished we had more screens to show more potential S/R lines.

[Vinster]

Hi all, long time lurker here. I believe the price opened between the statistical maxima for today, the 3 upper red lines are all 99% extrema using different normally distributed variations, so I assumed a short bias. The 3 lower red lines are the same but the bottom extremes. It’s the main part of my strategy which helps me determine daily bias (keep in mind that I make the assumption that the price is normally distributed), after that I use ICT’s teachings to enter and manage trades (Thank you for your risk management videos ICT!). Over a period of 4630 trading days the price remained between the outer red lines 74.08% of the time and 34.98% of the time between the inner red lines, while the day price closed 67.01% of the time between the inner red lines; so it gives a pretty good indication where the daily maxima will probably form. However the signal loses strength as the day progresses since the new price fluctuations aren’t in the calculated maxima (which I calculate the day prior to the trading day), so have to work on that. Does anyone else use normal distribution and/or calculus in their strategy?

Ah, a market student. Post your math, please. Or your indicator. I’m always wanting to find new ways of taking away the house advantage. Maybe I’ll impress Kate Bosworth…

[jonnycab]

My take on tonight’s fibre 15 min - or is it wishful thinking

Something like this maybe?

[Candianpip]

Peterma what program are you using to have the T note charts and I assume that you can save the charts? Also, does anyone know how ICT locks the large price block tag to a high or low as he does in some videos?

Thanks you to all the helpful followers out there. With out everyone I think I would still be in the dark ages of trading.

Here is why I like to keep an eye on us t bonds:
First image is 1 hr (10yr) going back to Dec18, I had the red support line which gave support on 4 days.

The bottom red line was very recent support/ resistance /support - 10 yr refused to go below that yesterday even though fibre was rising and usdx was falling.

The interesting thing is how this can get you out even intraday.

The second image is 15min over past 3 days - bond price hit the top line at 15.00 gmt - I’ve noticed many times that this will stall a fibre move - sure enough fibre turned one hour later - plenty of time to get out either partially or fully.

The future? - USDX 15 min today now looks similar to today’s 15 min 10yr - the big difference is that over the last 3 days they are opposed - lower highs in usdx - higher highs in 10yr, so which will win?

[minidiez]

@Vinster

My opinion:
We were at a confluence resistance. Monthly pivot point plus 386 retr of last swing plus mid fig. A good confluence level is 10 or so pips in a tight region. You are trading the monthly pivot, I’m trading fib, the next guy is trading mid figures and before we know it, the whole market has turned. I think this is in line with ICT’s concept that support and resistance trumps everything else. This is one of those days when we wished we had more screens to show more potential S/R lines.

Hi Vinster and everyone else!

I see a confluence of fib resistances at the 1.3185 price level (or thereabouts) and again at 1.3218 on the 4H.
Any thoughts on that?

Full album: Fib Confluence - Imgur

Thanks everyone for your input!

[Shaer]

Quick question, are you guys using an indicator for Wolfe Waves… I found some for MT4.

Or are you drawing them manually. Also are you driving the short (or long) from point 3 to 4 and then the opposite long (or short) from point 4 to 5 and finally final target from point 5 to next point (we’ll call it point 6).

How are you using them is my 2nd question, basically?

Few post ago I found a download of mt4 but that confused me. Tried drawing these wolf waves manually but 3rd wave should below/above the first wave. You may watch again Michael’s lattest video…

[rod178]

Attached is a Wolfe Wave resource that I collected many months ago. Maybe one day I’ll get around to having another look. Note that I’ve removed the copyright material.

Wolfe Wave Indicators.zip (1.07 MB)

[Hogarste]

Up until ICT’s Tweet, I had not heard a lot about Wolfe Waves. Does anyone remember any of ICT’s older posts or videos mentioning these. They seem to occur contra to market structure. We’ve been closing the books at work the last couple of weeks, so sorry if I’ve missed conversations on these, but I’d appreciate any feedback.

Few post ago I found a download of mt4 but that confused me. Tried drawing these wolf waves manually but 3rd wave should below/above the first wave. You may watch again Michael’s lattest video…
YouTube

[minidiez]

Attached is a Wolfe Wave resource that I collected many months ago. Maybe one day I’ll get around to having another look. Note that I’ve removed the copyright material.

Hey, thank you so much for this

[NorwoodFX]

Total mess. Fiber and Cable almost didn’t move at all during Asian session. AUD/USD fell down to 1.049 after hitting 1.051. Charts look horrible today, there are no economic indicators for today to move the market, and I’m thinking about staying flat, or trading something else.

“Vi veri universum vivus vici.”

[Pipstages]

Does anyone use Killzones and other methods with any other pairs apart form Fiber and Cable ??
Seem’s like when the fiber and cable are choppy, there are other pairs which provide good oppurtunity…But wasn’t sure ig EJ or EA and such pairs are actively traded during LO and NYO…

[PureMuscle]

Total mess. Fiber and Cable almost didn’t move at all during Asian session. AUD/USD fell down to 1.049 after hitting 1.051. Charts look horrible today, there are no economic indicators for today to move the market, and I’m thinking about staying flat, or trading something else.

“Vi veri universum vivus vici.”

How does a chart look horrible?? :eek: I don’t know why you’d think that low movement in the Asian session is indicative of the day ahead… It’s a great time to position yourself for tomorrow’s rate decision.

[NorwoodFX]

How does a chart look horrible?? :eek: I don’t know why you’d think that low movement in the Asian session is indicative of the day ahead… It’s a great time to position yourself for tomorrow’s rate decision.

I didn’t say that. I say what happened, not what will happen. Past tense.

Cable looks undecided about on which side should it go. Fiber too. Only news can move these pairs somewhere.

“Vi veri universum vivus vici.”

[satyaki]

Is this the NEW thread of ICT ?

[PureMuscle]

I didn’t say that. I say what happened, not what will happen. Past tense.

Cable looks undecided about on which side should it go. Fiber too. Only news can move these pairs somewhere.

“Vi veri universum vivus vici.”

Apologies - my mistake.

I’m not sure why you say that only news can move currencies somewhere. What about my great great-grandfather’s company in Germany which plans on buying $1,000,000,000’s worth of Chevrolet Cruzes today?

Jokes aside, it’s better not to state things as absolute certainties when FX is all about probabilities. Fiber may look undecided to you, but it certainly isn’t undecided to a vast array of speculators; I dare say myself included :51:

Anyway, I’m being an ass - time to stop now

[Esser]

I’m not very good at “seeing” marketstructure yet, but I would say that MS for the fiber is looking bullish, isn’t it? We seem to have an ITL at 1.3000, which would have to be taken out for MS to change to bearish, right…?

[Superdeluxe]

I’m not very good at “seeing” marketstructure yet, but I would say that MS for the fiber is looking bullish, isn’t it? We seem to have an ITL at 1.3000, which would have to be taken out for MS to change to bearish, right…?

Yes for u may seem bullish but for long term traders who trade of the weekly charts its bearish cuz the price just bounced of resistance… Allways consider bigger time frames

[Esser]

Yes for u may seem bullish but for long term traders who trade of the weekly charts its bearish cuz the price just bounced of resistance… Allways consider bigger time frames

Oh, okay. Because of the resistance at 1.3300?

[Superdeluxe]

Lol i dont know myself but Michael told us to base our analysis on higher time frames, daily or 4hour. Dont look much into 1h its like a entry time for swing traders

[peterma]

Peterma what program are you using to have the T note charts and I assume that you can save the charts? Also, does anyone know how ICT locks the large price block tag to a high or low as he does in some videos?

Thanks you to all the helpful followers out there. With out everyone I think I would still be in the dark ages of trading.

I use a UK co. ETX Capital , I just dump the image to the clipboard (hit shift+PrntScr), then I have imaging software where I can just press paste and then crop the image - any imaging software does the job.