Haha I always seem to arrive too late, once everything has been said that needs to be said
Nevertheless, PIPHangar, believe me when I say that I feel for you. This is nowhere near as easy as itās made out to be, and the reality is that ICTās concepts donāt magically turn someone into a forex prophet. There are 2 sides to becoming successful as a trader, and one of them has nothing to do with ICT. It is all to do with you. Iām not going to assume that you donāt have the risk management thing down, or that you are applying ICTās concepts incorrectly, because that would be unjustified and presumptuous. What you are missing is perseverance and the desire to never NEVER quit, no matter how much it seems like a pointless affair. Youāve got to want this enough that you are willing to undertake months, YEARS of hard work to get there. Just like anything in life, itās worth waiting for. Iāve got a theory that most people fail at forex because they just donāt have the patience to see it through to fruition. We canāt expect to be seasoned āprofessionalsā after a few months of experience. The word professional implies something that is acquired through hard work and dedication, PERSEVERING through tough times.
Anyway, please just donāt take it out on Michael. Do some introspection bro I just lost 15% in the last 3 weeks, and I have literally never been more confident in my ability to do this, to make it as a professional trader. Why? Because Iāve realised that the key to success has nothing to do with technical analysis or frankly anything taught by anyone on any forum (donāt get me wrong, ICT is my hero, heās helped us breeze through a good couple of YEARSā worth of experience in a matter of months!). Letās put it this way, Iāll be DAMNED if I donāt finish my first year of trading heavily in the green (100% plus). Iāll bookmark this post and recall it next year July.
I also caught the tail end of this episode but I just wanted to weigh in with my views:
Never trust anyone in forex but yourself.
ICT is providing us with [B]valuable[/B] tools for us to use to attempt to be consistently profitable. We chose whether to use them or not. We chose whether to believe what he is saying is true. We set our own destiny.
If you lose money, there is no one to blame but yourself. Donāt use the broker excuse or point fingers at people who gave you advice.
Some people can try for months and years and will just not crack it. It doesnāt mean they are dumb, it just means their personality and mindset is not geared for trading.
Another thing I see is you negative attitude. For instance you are already looking at putting on that McDonalds hat in a negative way. Well if you do the you job will suck and you will be there pointing fingers at everyone as to why your life sucks. A humble man would be glad he is able to work and although he may be no better off at least his life wont suck. You went into trading with a mindset that this isnt going to work. Well you got what you wanted you failed. Not trying to slam you. Just point out a personality trite that could very well be the difference between you and sucess
ICT spent almost 2 decades in trading which is precisely the reason he is doing so well. I donāt understand one thing why do people think that they can watch the videos and trade to millionās within no time ?
I donāt have much experience and screen time but all i can say is when i have first started i donāt know what support and resistance was or should i say i donāt know how to setup a platform and execute a trade and now iām doing pretty good. No, iām not having a consistent profitās yet. But iām so damn sure that one day iāl reach that stage.
I always say this myself āQuitting now is like giving up when you are just few stepās away from your goal. Like they say, if you have courage to begin, you will have the courage to finish itā.
People have been through much more worse situationās and have achieved their dreamās. They dināt quit nor they did blame someone else for their failureās. In fact, we should feel lucky that Mike is taking lot of effortās to teach us. Iāve been through many online and offline courses and guess what, Iāve been taught what was there for free in babypips school. But when it comeās to Mikeās material, you wonāt find it elsewhere. Cause itās his 20 yearās of time that he has put in to study and develop the toolās.
To all the those who are posting negative commentās, please park you sorry ass somewhere else. Iām still in learning phase and Iām sure 90% of the memberās in this thread are in the same phase, I just donāt want the thread pages to be bombarded with some useless postās.
Good to see that after NFP, Fibre shot up to exactly the OTE (Hi 17/9 - Lo 1/10/12). It then retraced to the 50% of todayās move. All text book stuff. All hail to him that writes the book!:57:
Finally had a weekend to come and catch up on the forums - returning to uni and its various freshers antics has kept me from keeping up to date like normalā¦
But honestly, all i can say is wow lolā¦
I think ICT hit the nail on the head when he talked about being responsible for our own actionsā¦
As most of yāall have heard me say time and time again, im no expert here, but personally i think people are weighing too much on the tools that ICT is sharing. Regardless of what else is to be shared in the trading plan series, we have more than enough tools to use in the markets, i think something which should be focused on more is knowing when to use them and be in the market, and knowing when to stay out.
The way i look at it, ICT can share his whole tool box with us, but unless we are patient enough to wait for the moments where it just all lines up in a way which suits our liking, we will never succeed. My live account is more or less BE now after 1 month - 4 trades. My way of trading may not even have a positive winning %, but i know for sure the R:R of the trades i do take will keep me profitable overall - adopting a swing trading approach.
This isnt get rich quick (or get rich in 36 months), this is get rich slow. One day, i hope to be able to double or even quadruple my account balance yearly, but personally, if my account is up around +5 to +10% by the end of the first year ill be happy, because i know even then its done a lot more than it would sitting in my bank account collecting its tiny amounts of interest annually.
Be responsible for your own actions
Stop looking for ICT to hold your hand
Youāve seen the SAME tools used week in, week out to grab pips - when you decide to use them is up to youā¦
So i was bored this evening and i finally got around to making a COT chart for myself for GBP and the euro. Obviously it will change with the release on tuesday, but heres the charts for them for the year to date
Euro COT
Was bored too, just anaylzing days action, noticed that US 10 yr and 5 yr prices dropped 5 mins before the jump in risk assets - remember risk follows yields - 5/10 yr price down - yield up.
The Euro bobl & bund was behind the US and in time with all risk - interesting - means some selling in US bonds 5 mins before the rise in risk.
Must watch the bobl & bund in the next big scheduled Euro news.
I use ETX Capital - they have good charts - you need a live a/c, they doānt do demos, have used them over past 6 -7 years, they upgraded their charts about 6mnths ago.
( i suppose in a sense their charts are for a single fee if one opens a small a/c and doesnt actually trade it)
You know Sanj you made me think about something I have been seeing more and more on these threads. I see everyone turning more and more to the fancy indicators ICT had presented us with and less and less on price itsself. Yes with all the bond yields, interest rates, smt and the indicators (all of witch is very important) what you have to remember they all have there time and place to be used effectively. But whats more important than all of it is what is price doing around these times. One must focus on price action or the rest will do you almost no good. Spotting smt means nothing if you cant read price action. Bond yeilds mean nothing if you dont know what price is doing at these times of divergance. Traders trinity well tell you diddlly squat if you can not read price at these levels. How is price reacting when these events line up? That is more important than the events itself. I am seeing all to much to many snipers here playing with all there super uber cool attachments to there rifle but forgetting to look down the barrel of the rifle. Is there a target out there? If not all your cool toys are not going to help you hit the taget if you cant look down the barrel
My point is I am seeing eveyone post a 10 mile long list of reasons why you took the trade. Price is very rarely mentioned. Remember keep it simple stupid. To many times am I seeing you guys put on night vision goggles to look through a inferred scope with you flash light. To shoot a target right in front of your face in the middle of the day. Its no wander why you missed.
I am new in this game (started <24 months, lost money using indiās, actively learning <10 months) and I agree with you. As a newbie, I was drawn to inidiās, then PA though have yet to grasp the essence of it.
The difference in ICTās indiās (I know ICT is just using them to guide, not telling us to follow), [B]coupled with price[/B], is clearer. So they are helpful in making me read/interpret price in more details.
This reminds me of a Zen Buddhism illustration:
āThe finger points to the moon. The finger is not the moon but just a guide to the moon. What is your goal? To look at the finger or the moon?ā
In my context, indi=finger, price=moon.
Hereās a Bruce Leeās Enter The Dragon to sum it all:
Whats even more funny is after posting this I just watched the most recent trading plan video and ICT in a nut just stated the same thing. By telling you not all these tools are made for the 5 minute chart. I rarely ever look at a 5 minute chart even though I did this week. But I had higher time frame premise in mind I was just looking for an entry. To be honest all I found on the 5min chart was OTE on a daily pivot and higher TF (4hr) resistance level. Still that trade had total top down analysis done and even though it did not go as well as I hopped still as like the rest of my trade an easy 1 shoot over 100 pips banked. I was hoping to break the 1.02 figure but trailed my stop to tight there. At the same time it was looking like it was going to hold comming into NFP so time to get out. Today I see price broke it and held so you know what I will be doing next week? Sticking with the same higher timeframe analysis as last week (the higher timeframes do not change every 15 minutes guys they are there for day to weeks and months) and looking for another chance to get short. To be honest I hope I do not get an entry next week and price pushes up so I can get in at a better price to short the crap out the Aussie for more pips. I know most of you guys look to day trade as I more try to swing trade (or pretend to anyway lol) and we trade different pairs entirely. I have used these consepts this year and well they have worked great. I have not made more than I did last year but thats not got to do with ICT but since I cut out all the things that did work so well for me last year I have taken far far far less trades. With that I win ratio is where I never thought I would ever be at this stage of my trading (more on that coming soon on my thread where I will break down the last couple years of trading and what I have learned). But stuff like yields and cot report should never be compared to a 5-15 minute charts guys. Those are long term and to be totally honest are long term. They are ment for signaling a change in market bias and does not mean you will get it then and there. In fact if you want my honest opinion they should not be traded at all for most of you. Instead you nees to stay out when you see yields divergeing and the cot report swapping net positioning. Instead wait for it to be confirmed by market structure to shift and trade in the direction of market flow.
Day trading is just that but that does not you mean you have to trade everyday and thats what ict is trying to preach. If market flow is up but yields and cot and whatever else is suggesting a change then stay out. Once market flow changes to the down side then you can start day trading again. Now that market flow is down YOU ONLY LOOK TO SHORT. If that day is signaling a day to go long what do you do? STAY OUT UNTILL MARKETS SUGGEST PRICE WILL RESUME NORMAL FLOW. This is not rocket science. How many time has ICT said follow market flow. The only time he has ever said different was Higher time frame S\R trumps market flow. In those cases STAY OUT. At least untill market resume normal operations. Then continue normal trading. Its truely is that easy (sort of).
By doing this alone I will say without a shadow of a doubt that most of you will see instant results
Exactly learn price action (which is on all of ICTās threads). He goes deeper into price action in his teachings than most even realised and fialed to grasp it. This last vid he really went deep into it and IMO was long overdue
yes! there is hope, pain, and evolution. With concepts and technique set, there is no larger sense of freedom then to accept we know what we do, it is what it is, and you are free to be creative and play. good fortunes along the way to next July!
My story. Iāve been trading for only 4 months so obviously not profitable. What I learned from ICT in a couple of months after finding him is incredible. How on earth anyone can find anything to whinge about is beyond me. Didnāt ICT say time and time again that you need to give yourself time to develop as a trader? As we all learn at a different pace it could be 2 years for some and 5, 10 for others. I expect in my case between 3-5 years of education is required before seeing consistent results as this game is unbelievably challenging. Years people, not months) At least now I have learned to critically assess the terrain and most importantly the importance of discipline, patience and money management which is something ICT always talking about. He always said this is not a strategy so I think those that expect a turnkey system have had the wrong expectation. I am not profitable and I donāt expect to be so any time soon but I know for sure one thing, ICT has saved me a tonn of money through my huge growth in awerness in such a short time and has made me at least confident enough to experiment with the concepts and to try and seek an edge myself through this journey. If you keep loosing, scale down as the man says (even this wisdom Iām grateful for as itās natural to try and chase your losses with larger position size). Many times he outright said he sometimes has it wrong and who hasnāt? Did he not say that you can expect loosing streaks of upto 7 trades is a row? DId he ever claim to have the holy grail? No, so why criticise when everything has been upfront and he did everything in his power to make us wiser and preserve our capital at all cost, especially when weāre greenhorns and know 10% of what we need to know (speaking for myself here). His insight is incredible and lessons are fun and for free, I still canāt believe the generosity. I do agree though with whoever said Chris Lori is way overpriced, even though heās very good, it keeps many of us that may have wanted to do his courses out unfortunately. Compare this to ICT at the other extreme, certainly no lower in quality and free of charge. Thank you sir once again.
Iāve been downloading the ptc videos, noticed that each video can have a particular theme or themes and so I re-name the file accordingly so that I can find the video when I want to re-learn that particular concept.
The latest video 10/4/12 - Iāve re-named ā ICT Day Biasā , itās an absolute gem in how he reached his bias decision on Thursdayās trading - this is one video I will be re-visiting many times.
Looking at the dollar index we saw a nice little bear move into a key level at 79.50 attempting to reach for 78.96 we saw a nice little pull back as it was in optimal trade entry thanks to the NFP and the aftermath and it did pull back to a known key level at 79.50 and closed just under it treating it as resistance. I suspect if we can trade a bit lower we may see a continued rally in foreign currencies with a plausible reversal at 78.96 which is the 78% retracement level with the intent of setting up for the pairs to weaken.
This is the fiber chart and as we can see last week we saw some bearish action priming for the hard rally we saw later in the week I suspect with the way that were moving we can expect rallies to be stronger until we hit around the 1.3090 - 1.3100 level which is OTE 78% along with the weekly R3 looking at it fundamentally we have some high impact news on Wednesday and Thursday which can provide to be some great catalysts (or inhibitors) to what I am looking towards if my plan and assumption is to come to fruition. So going into the week with Bullish tone but a strong Bearish Overtone as we progress further into the week.
Overall Iām looking to take longs on each pull back until 1.3100 is met then I will take the short back to around 1.3030ish with the HTF objective of 1.2860 -1.2890 and lower provided I see what I like.
This is the cable chart and as you can see it sort of fell short of my expectations for it however if we continue to see it rally back Iām expecting the 1.6230 - 1.6240 level to be a suspect area where we May see a pull back however I am not strong on it because we could potentially run for 1.6300 to run out the stops made at 1.6258. So for the most part I am going to stay on the sidelines unless I see something jump at me from the dollar index analysis.
Over to the bonds
As a part of my attempt to further understand and to add to my analysis I looked @ the 2 year bonds for each of the three, as far as my understanding goes, I noticed that the German bonds made a higher low when the USD and the Pound were making a lower low, well it seems at a standstill to me. Which is why when I referenced the 5 it still looked like the USD and the pound were able to make that lower low but the German made a higher. Which I suspect the euro would be a better candidate to short? (someone elaborate on this)
Funny enough I wrote the bond portion before I wrote the cable portion and after I wrote the euro portion lol.
I just lost 15% in the last 3 weeks, and I have literally never been more confident in my ability to do this, to make it as a professional trader. Why? Because Iāve realised that the key to success has nothing to do with technical analysis or frankly anything taught by anyone on any forum (donāt get me wrong, ICT is my hero, heās helped us breeze through a good couple of YEARSā worth of experience in a matter of months!). Letās put it this way, Iāll be DAMNED if I donāt finish my first year of trading heavily in the green (100% plus). Iāll bookmark this post and recall it next year July.
