yes, when price moves quickly down for instance, many people seek trading the way it’s supposed to be done, with entry or re-entry short in direction of the main move on a type of fib retracement. When the fast move is into a deep retrace on a larger frame and also prior stops level, then i would rather interpret the fast move as a Judas, which usually happens with major news events, NFP and ECB. In these occasions long into the Judas may carry less risk than short into the momentum, because more sellers are induced into shorts at 38, 50, 79, and at some point they give in as the short continuation is delayed (whereas lacking a fast move, many will only enter at the 79 level, less counter-party to the big money)
i believe tis the reason spike moves are usually retraced completely. having said that, i noticed in such scenarios the retrace is usually decisive.
we don’t see that in the pairs for now, so i raised stops in both cable and fiber and figure 'll just give them a bit more time to show signs of upward, but not too much.
normally i would agree, the index did its stop run on the 90 and already had a big range day. more of fiber down would mean more of index up and i don’t think it has the legs. But what i think doesn’t matter much to the market, so we’ll see
Just reading BBC news headline ’ More than 500 bankers paid £1million plus.’
Those are not bank tellers or the office staff in the local branch - they are traders - call themselves ‘smart money’, call us ‘dumb money’.
Heck we even call ourselves dumb, we buy books titled ‘Trading for Dummies’ , I see the term used everywhere - every time I read on other threads the various fights, making little of other traders, scorning questions or ideas, I think ’ that’s why so many fail - why they call us dumb’.
I know it does’nt happen this thread - we will prove that by co-operating, by sharing, by working together - just like the big boys do - that we will be dummies no more.
BTW the lack of negative response to downgrade of Italy is a reason for exiting shorts in my book - I know not an earth shattering surprise but nonetheless the euro seemed to take that on the chin.
Next headline I’m going to read on BBC is ’ Private investors/traders from babypips pay themselves £1 million plus’
Yep IB, I posted above on Wed night, I suspected that 82.90 was the big guy’s goal and would happen NFP, let’s face it, good chance they knew the numbers.
Now I’m disappointed that they did’nt actually get to the 2950, they were 5 pips short and ran out of steam.
I’m still recovering from my sore finger - it hovered that long over the trigger lol - still I have to agree that nfp can be a lottery, but it is also a great learning curve.
Now to more serious things - I’m seeing continued divergence in German and US bonds with the usdx - but the water is muddied with the fact that German prices are rising, US prices falling (in itself not unexpected since it is US numbers).
I have seen this big fall in US bond prices along with rise in usdx on nfp before, often then gets played out on the following Monday or Tuesday with the usdx coming back into sync - so as I say - great learning curve.
A couple of weeks before ICT left BP, I hired a fellow to copy all of the videos to CD’s. I was going through them tonight, and the two I really want are not there. One is the Inside the Range webinar from late summer 2012, and the Other was a webinar he did in late November using either USD/AUD or EUR/JPY to illustrate market structre and price manipulation to raid stops. Is there anyone who can help me get a hold of these please? If so please PM me…
yes, remember reading yours, JC mentioned the stops and 83 level, Alishijo on positions and extend/retrace fibs on long frames, and thinking that in the group we are consistent in viewing index 83 and fibs in the pairs as nfp levels.
Mind you i had just posted the comment (301 Moved Permanently), and cable did the stops at 4980 in early Asia (thursday), already?! no way it will do it on its own, so was looking for a replay fall with the news.
the other interesting trade was eurjpy, i don’t know if you guys look at the yen pairs, i know some do and many don’t, but those two, ej/gj burning pips in recent days unbelievable. the ej trade alone post non-farm payroll was in 150 pip range, reacting at combo of 79 retrace, stop run level and time of opportunity. i like the nfp, hard to trade, to anticipate, but you know major challenge and milestone
3/30/13 — EDIT — The Table shown below is now out-of-date. For the current Table click here
Several forex session times, and several ICT kill zones, will change on Sunday, March 10, due to the start of Daylight Saving Time in the U.S. and Canada.
The following table shows session times and ICT kill zones for 15 time zones. The new times, effective March 10, are highlighted in yellow. This table will be current for three weeks (15 trading days).
The next change to session times and kill zones will occur on March 31, at which time Europe and the U.K. will go onto Daylight Saving Time.
Note: There is one error in the table. On the last line (pacific U.S., Canada),
the times for the Asian Session should be 1700-0300 (not 1700-0500, as shown).
Only fundamental news events, specially the unexpected number releases like the NFP yesterday , can really move the market. I am still learning how to trade this event as I have had a bad experience trading NFP from the past. Yesterday was a really good example of finding a “Quality” trade (atleast for me). I have not traded much for the past 2 weeks because I am waiting on ECB Announcement and NFP. Though, I missed the ECB but I did catch about 30 pips. Yesterday was a killer for me +110 pips total and it was a quick one too. I didn’t look for any other “confluences” because I got more confuse when I do.
If your trading style doesn’t fit into this fast moving freight train, then it is better to step aside and wait until it settle down. However, if you took a chance to trade the news, it is a very quick rewarding trade and you are done. It takes practice though and I am still learning. Trading news/fundamental is not for everyone but it doesn’t hurt to try :)…
P.S: Well, I’ll take that back… trading the news you will lose alot…and it does hurt …badly!..j/k lol.
So getting ready for a new week, after a annoying last week, opened 2 short positions on cable, and managed to loose both, thanks to oversleeping, lazyness and poor judgment
The last couple of weeks I have only been at the screens tuesdays, wednesday and thursdays. From now on I will be on my desk watching monday to friday. AND getting up early to watch the LO.
On to the exciting stuff, I still think that USDX is heading north, and it seems like Fiber is on the verge on turning in its long term OTE… Cable shows no signs of turning around, and seems like it will continue south(I will keep trying to catch shorts on cable), But I think Cable has a seasonal pattern to make a low these days…
As a sidenote, it looks like EURGBP is in a sideways thing, so Fiber and Cable should be pretty equal. But since Fiber is in OTE territory I will keep shorting cable…
(I’d have been in at my 1.2960 noted level though :))
