got out of my short and switched to long. not an ict style entry perse. ive adapted my trading style and added some other techniques like harmonics and lower timeframe PA. its an aggresive entry, but i dont care. its within my rules
ict reasons: 79% ote from last thursdays low to todays high, friday AR high, reflection this weeks low to high, eurx and usdx both at levels i noted + otes, overall long bias because of yields, cot and htf ms. also fiber ~ds1 and usdx dr1.
also harmonics on eurx and usdx. both hit to the pip at the same time. enough reasons for an aggressive entry for me.
lower low cable now, fiber higher low @ 20 level. now would be the “safer” entry for my trade. + looks like a stop hunt on cable with the extreme clean low taken out
The US10yr 1 hr chart as of now - in a clear range - it broke the mid way point (131.40, the thin short line) at 14.20 gmt, after that the only way was up for it and down for fibre, the fall in fibre halted when 10yr got up to the resistance line.
I am looking for ICT videos and zip files. If you could share any or point me in the right direction I’d appreciate.
Am running the ropes and from a casual browse they seem worth checking out, am also running 3 birds
Larry Williams likened ‘smart money’ to fly fishing, when the fisherman (smart money) see the fish they wiggle the bait ever so slightly to entice the fish, when the fish becomes interested he bites - wham.
Today’s action on fibre on 15 min at 13.00 to 14.00 reminds me of that scenario,I was watching it live and thinking of the many times that I saw that bait wiggle and of course being no.1 bottom picker I would bite.
ICT dubbed it the ‘pause’, others have different names on it, it happens quite often.
Funny you should mention the fishing analogy - I’ve always likened trading to fishing as there are many traits common to both, patience being the key one along with reading the conditions, using the appropriate tools (tackle) and knowing when to strike and how to play the fish to the final landing (trade close).
Anyhow what type of day are we going to have today - 4 hr MS is bearish fibre but I have a sneak feeling that it desparately wants to go up after the ridicoulous comments from Dijsselbloem yesterday about the Cyprus bail in being the template for future bail outs. Mmmn… lets see what LO gives us.
[B]USDX:[/B] Looking for either strength or weakness in USD today, (DURABLE GOODS at 12:30 GMT and New Home Sales at 13 GMT, Consumer Confidence at 14 GMT) USDX is in a tight range all morning, we’ll see what happens when the reports come out X_X!!
[B]GBP:[/B] Bullish??? Is it just because of the outflow of EUR into GDP because of the Cyprus Bailin?
possibly the good Retail Sales Report is decreasing expectations of possible QE in GB and showing signs of strength in the economy.
Above expected Retail Sales Report on last Thursday
Drop in Open Interest
Break in Market Structure (BULLISH)
Considering looking for longs on GBP. Depends on USD Sentiment.
Following my earlier comments about EU possibly wanting to go higher, even though nothing has happened so far today in that direction it does seem fairly resilient to pushing lower. We had the “bail in as a template for bail outs” [I]Dieselfuel[/I] comment yesterday (backtracked ad lib today) and today an anonymous ‘EU lawmaker’ saying that depositors with > Euros100,000 should be open to ‘bail ins’ under a new EU bank resolution law but Fibre stayed somewhat unperturbed (after a quick spike lower that is). Makes me wonder what it might take to force it under. Could we be seeing a low of the week? Follows ICT principles that Tuesdays/Weds usually see lows/highs of the week?
From a Daily HTF pov EU is at @ 50%fib from low in last July to high in Jan this year and a @ 79 fib from the Nov 012 low to Jan high. There may also be some squaring up of positions for month/qtr end coming into the Easter break. Cant remember what ICT said about what to look for after S&D days as noted by Topfroxx - any insights anyone?
i like search and destory shorted from the 80 level got out for another 30 pips. nice end to the day.
btw not sure what ict said about the days following after s&d, but my own take is that we will see some massive movement soon. the direction probably depending on the bank run situation on cyprus
Draw a fib from the high to low on a S&D day and keep on eye on the 50% level to act as support or resistance the following day. Today that’s around 1.2857. That’s all I can remember ICT saying about S&D days
Good work and Good Luck!
Sorry for sounding pessimistic