Div in Bonds, div in USDX SMT, give me some money!!!
A few key points about S&D days:
- Raid on stops for liquidity (we got that today with a fresh low)
- S&D is for accumulation.
- Where is the most money? Is it buying or selling? Whatever side has the most money on it, thats the direction its not going. ie. If there are more ppl trying to buy it, price moves up, then reverses rapidly.
Look at the action at the end of today. Everyone who was positioning nicely for a long or short around those 1.2880 and 1.2850 levels during the start of the day will probably have had their stops raided with that push lower and then rapid rally higher, then back towards that equilibrium point.
Equally, the breakout trader is screwed as well, rally down hard below 1.2850, stop sell orders triggered, almost immediately we hit 1.2880+, ooops! Unless hes correct about where price is going tomorrow and the stops are wide enough, his position is now toastâŚ
One other thing he said about S&D days - he wished he hadânt called them âdaysâ because the phenomenon can carry on over a further number of days - having said that with end of month and hols coming up we could see some volatility.
Interesting to see that the previous mentioned minor resistance 131.40 on us 10 yr acted as support today - the really interesting thing is that it went back up to stronger resistance at 131.70, the area where it is now happily resting - it has come down from that area on the last 4 visits over this past 7 days.
So the question in my mind for tomorrow morning is will the 10yr break through resistance along with a fall in fibre or will it pull back down along with a rise on fibre.
I will be watching the 15min 10 yr for signs.
Looking at the 1hr fibre, is see a couple of long red candles, I wonder will we go up to revisit at least a portion.
I have no bias either way, one big thing Iâve learned since being on this thread, it works for me, may not for anyone else, is to discard bias.
I used to open the charts with a pre-conceived bias - I was then looking for things to confirm that bias, I was blinding myself to see anything contrary to that - so if I was bullish and price was falling I was looking for bottoms, the slightest up turn and I was in.
I credit you guyâs posts for ridding me of that particular little nasty 
sorry, i really dont mean to be rude or something but what is the point of your post? you are in the red for the year, right?
From negative 36% to positive 28% within a month is an increase of over 50%! Pretty impressive to me. We will see how it ends in 3 years. Hopefully, I can catch up too.
Itâs ICTâs account
oh, didnt check the twitter for 2 days. nice 
hi there cable, how is it going, nice to meet you. mind if i take a ride on your back ?
got 80% out at 30 pips. rest +15 locked
wow⌠iâm either incredibly lucky this week or i found my own personal grail⌠besides the 30 pips on cable, from 1.2820 to 1.2840 = 20 pips on fiber, shorted fiber at 1.2842 with 10 pip sl, AND shorted cable at 1.5178 with 10 pip sl. seriously, what is going on. the second day in a row now. if i only could keep that up 
but the RR ratios because of my extreme tight stops give me a lot of hope that this might be profitable in the long run. fingers crossed.
ps. sorry for spamming the thread.
and to add some value to the thread, reasons for the fiber short: bonds rising like crazy while fiber was doing the same (massive divergence), prev. weekly low, ote, AR low, wolve waves on m1, pa on m1, gartley on m5 (i think, still too lazy to learn the terminology, but some harmonic pattern), overall bearish mf and ms. also when yesterdays low was raided the retracement was âtoo slowâ for being another stop run as in a S&D day, which determinded my short bias.
Good job TopFroxx, USDX/Fiber divergence too. Lower lows on the 15M, no higher high on the Fiber. Down she went
Jonnycab and others, this is what I just do not understand. I also saw the USDX/Fibre divergence on 15 min but I didnât know what to make of it. I canât interpret what the divergence means. How can we say yes the fibre is now signalled to fall as a result of this divergence?
OK, so the following scenario just unfolded:
USDX lower lows = potential USDX weakness IF the Fiber makes a higher high
Fiber lower highs = The Fiber failed to correlate this lower low because it didnt make a higher high, therefore, a good indication that the Fiber is the weaker and more prone to a drop.
There are other factors too ofcourse (as the USDX is a weighted index, read mapmans post on the subject a few pages back). But because Fiber makes up most of that weight in the USDX index, its quite a reliable tool when these divergences occur.
Keep an eye on the Bonds too as TopFroxx said (cue peterma :))
The Babypips School was of great help to me for understanding the divergence concept and the divergence cheet sheet should tell you everything you need to know.
got 90% off on the fiber short, holding the last until the end of the day, aiming for USDX 83.50. will close at whatever will happen first
Is this the USDX / Fibre divergence?
I only see the USDX coming down to the 6:30 low but not going any lower at 9:00.
Im not sure what feed youâre using, but yes, those are the correct locations the divergence occurred.
You can see it more clearly here:
EDIT: Took some profits @ 127% extension (1.2790)
Thank you.
I am using a Forex Ltd demo account for my USDX/Fibre feed. Looks like I need to find a better source.
Hi Harnon - your chart readings tally with mine (both Usdx lows you point to dipped to 82.89 so not actually L/Lows on my charts either) but it still indicates a weaker Fibre especially when you look at the US10yr breaking through the resistance Peterma noted yeasterday (131.70) and heading up to and now above 132.00. Divergence is not always an exact science - you just have to take the probable scenario - as in all aspects of ttrading :).