Thank you guys… its time I start getting really heavy into research on 5 yr/10 yr bond yields/prices, USDX divergence.
From what I have been reading, and understand
Three are two ways too look at bond yields
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US bond yields 2yr, 5yr, 10yr looking for divergence with USDX, indicating general direction of bonds (In comparison to stocks, commodities, currencies) This also gives us general Risk Appetite vs. Risk Aversion also for long-term Bias.
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Yield spreads for determining where carry traders will put their bucks. We have to determine which currencies are investing currencies and which are shorted in order to enter the trade. The borrowing currency (possibly CHF, USD, JPY) if the yield increases comparatively to the lending currency (AUD, GBP, EUR) then we are seeing risk aversion.
Thoughts?
Yep - US10yr had a job getting up thru resistance - 6 x 15min candles pushing from 07.30 - finally at 09.00 - 09.15 a green candle stood proudly on top, it wick resting on 131.74 - the exact high 2 days ago - the same time that fibre could’nt make it back, - from that candle on it was … well you know.
Just bought Cable because of bullish Market Structure on 4H, inside a 2 OTE’s to go Long, and big figure…
Hope its enough 
good luck with that one. am looking for possible longs on cable soon too. but not right now. still think it might reach for the 1.5070-80 area first.
Yeah, I see your point, there is a lot of action down there from last week 
well, lets see what happens
I’m trying to mark key levels of a few of my charts having just watched the first S&R video. There is a lot of information in the video and left me confused as to what levels I actually need to plot. Plotting all the suggested levels in the video would leave me with a lot of lines that go across the screen, making it difficult to to read the lines that go down the screen. I plan on trading off the 4 hour and plan on marking the following levels:
- Strong areas of support resistance as soon on the monthly and weekly charts
- Previous month high/low
- Previous week high/low
- Previous day high/low
Is there anything else I should consider? Do people ever used published figures by the brokers?
Hi Satunya
you’re right too many lines cloud the picture. There are a number of ways around this depending on your screen set up and whether you’re trading screens are always visible to you (whether you are trdaing full time or part time around other work etc.). Persoannly I have a screen per intrument eg one for Fibre and one for cable. On each of these I have the daily, 4h 1h 15m and 5min charts open with S/R lines on each as follows:
On Daily I mark up the key highs and lows
On the 4h I do the same (many lines are the same level by definition)
On the 1hr I mark up the past week high and low and other obvious intraday highs and lows that I’m interested in and a couple I carry over from the daily/4h
On the 15m I show the pivot levels and the Asia session with a couple of high and lows I’m targeting that day
On the 15m I have no S/R lines.
Now I can see the PA in all time frames (I have the weekly and monthly charts marked up in the back ground for when I need a quick check) without any one cvhart being overpowered by lines.
Of course this is a personal preference but it works for me and as said, I dont know your screen/tech set up etc.
One thing is for sure - if you put too many lines on your charts it defeats the object - forest and trees analogy etc.
Sorry cant post up a pic at the mo.
I dont use S/R published by brokers but in my experiencve S/R are pretty much the same for everyone to see (when you get used to it) and brokers cant easily use S/R 's to screw you around with stop raids etc. so I wouldnt be too wary of using them but its much better to get to know how to pick them out for yourself. Its time very well spent.
Mark
I think I use a more siimple way, I just zoome out on the daily chart(way out), and mark up all levels of interest(obvius highs and low that are hit more than 1 time, and everytime I added a line, I moved it to the nearest 10’(like 1.2935 is moved to 1.2930 etc), if its closed to a institutional number, i will move it that way, like 1.2941 gets 1.2950 etc.
And so far it works pretty good
This is similar to what I do, I use the 4H initially to mark up all highs and lows (rounding to suit the institutional levels) then jump down to the 1H and see whats missing. Surprisingly, I rarely add many lines using the 1H TF (usually weekly highs/lows will be marked up here), the 4H does a pretty good job for me and my style of trading. Its one of those things you need to try it yourself and see how it works out. But try to avoid marking up any lines on a TF lower than 4H if you plan to trade using the 4H TF alone otherwise you’ll have no idea what levels are useful.
I also use the monthly and weekly TF to markup big key highs and lows formed there too. They do come into play sometimes and are very useful levels
Ultimately: Where has price been and where is price going? Combine this with Market Structure and you’ll have some very important insight.
Yep i think everybody doing the same
Last night I posted about how bias used to get me into trouble.
An hour later I was reading L.Williams - he was telling how in 1974 he reached a ‘value judgement that price of cattle would soar’ (bias).
He bought at 43cents, price drifted to 40 so he bought more, at 38cents the price was a ‘steal’ so he added some more.
Price finally fell to 28 cents and he was out - at a loss of THREE MILLION USD - in less than 30 days.
Two months later price left without him to reach 60 cents.
Sounds like he was just wrong.
Yes, thats what happens when you try to force your will on the market…
Any preconceived notions about what the market will do should be left at the door…
“Force” no of course not. But, every time one enters a trade they have a bias and a preconceived notion. We are betting on the unknowable.
The old saying, “trade what you see not what you think”. I suppose sums it up.
I have answer for saying: Trade what you see not what you think, its called Market Structure. Basicaly you will be wrong at bottoms and tops but if you watch Bonds, COT and so on you will be able to catch them too 
From being wrong he formulated two rules,
Value (price) is ephemeral, it can be anything - ( it is never to cheap nor too dear)
Second, and in his opinion more important, the value of money management - he was right in his analysis and yet lost, had he managed his ‘resources’ better he states that he would have ‘made a respectable killing’.
He is making the point ‘that all successful traders make a bad call’ , that the market can ‘sometimes not deny, just delay’, and that the ‘sooner a trader learns to master their defeats the sooner they will amass wealth’.
It’s a good lesson from a trader who has amassed wealth, and a good lesson for me - the famous ex-bottom picker
Individual trades don’t mean anything. What matters is that you’re making money over time. Nothing else matters.
Hi guys…
Anyone have any idea what just happend to Cable(or why? 
Massive decline)
Looks like a bit of EurGbp action to me - month end / qtr end fixing perhaps. Likely to be thin liquidy today - might be best to stand aside today and wait till next Tuesday when all markets reopen.
Also as an aside (for info only) you sometimes hear of the BIS (bank of international settlements) a supranational bank based in Basel which acts to coordinate the actions and policies of central banks monetary policy intervening and acting as support / resistance at certain times. I usually hear oblique references to the BIS being on the bid / offer in relation to Fibre but they can act anywhere in any market. Just something to bear in mind in our quest to master the forex markets