Anyone got a view on bitcoins, my broker IG index has started quoting binary options on them?! Haha
I believe they crashed the other day!
hi everyone,
long time no see… been away from trading for a while, slowly getting back into the rhythm of things
i have a long cable, reason was 79 retrace on the 5240-5410 swing, support looking pa in the 75 area, gbp futures at premium in the front month. Modest gain so far, waiting to see possible reaction at 5320
good luck all
these bitcoins look like a hobby project turned into clever marketing ploy, they surge in media coverage anytime there is bad news on the traditional money front. Found this article on the net
Thanks for the link IbePippin
you’re welcome 
an update! on the cable trade this morning
5275 area maintained support, closed first position at plus 60,
second tp 5380 with stop at b/even.
second entry was early, it worked out well this time
Nice trading Ibe!
Took a trade this morning myself. Should have let a small amount run on (see the pic as to why :p)
The wonderful SMT divergence strikes again, stop raid on both the EURUSD (AR low) & USDX (old highs), 15M EURUSD, 1H USDX:
Downside of 127% and 162% extensions nailed perfectly!
Fantastic trade jonnycab.
nice analysis and great entries Jonny,
this is good trading!
those extensions are useful aren’t they. 've actually created a habit, i believe you do the same, for any swing taken out pulling fibs 127, 162 and 200 right away, so helpful to keep targets in perspective.
well, lets keep the good luck going!
What I find more interesting is that the red lines on the USDX chart were actually HTF lines at old highs/lows (lows in this case) that I’ve had marked up for some time now. Its scary how often they coincide with the Fib extensions of recent swings
And yes, I do the same thing when I try to work out the next stage of upside/downside objectives. Extremely useful and as you’ve rightfully said, it helps to keep things in perspective.
Well I forfeited yesterday’s wins today by marrying my thoughts on what I thought market would do rather than what it did and failure to look at the bigger picture. I think part of it is my lack of understanding on what a trading plan entails deeply and following indicators like if it were law aswell. I know I lean more into short term trading to swing trading((not into scalping personally)). I think I lack understanding on “that grey area”.
Good learning though and helps keep things in perspective despite it, on a positive note, I am taking trades instead of being a deer in headlights and well I’ll get out of this drawdown.
Discipline!
By the way, is this topic idea allowed in this thread? If not, well this would be the last one but just curious really.
i’ve wondered myself how is it that new extensions or retracements can coincide with old hard SRs… one angle is the reciprocity of fib numbers. for instance extend a swing to 1.62 and retrace it 38%, result is 1x1.62x(1-.38)=1, which is prior swing point taken out. Or extend a 79 deep correction, say .79x1.62=1.28, .79x2.62=2, that 200 fib extension and maybe a prior SR line at that level already, right? there’s quite a few of these, with corrections too.
on a different note
’m considering long cable 5220/30…
just went over my log/journal
last year (half of it on demo) I won (or BE) close to 80% of trades that I had entered.
This year to date I somehow managed to get 70% of my trades wrong and took losses on 70% of all trades!
thats pretty sad considering a 50/50 chance…
Now the really frustrating thing is: I still have no clue what Im doing differently!
Now while I am happy to see some of you making a killing, I do wonder how many trades do you win vs trades you lost… I assume many of you just post winners in the forum…
my motivation is taking quite a big hit after months and months and months of losses…
should probably take a step back or take a break.
Something just isnt working anymore… and while I know that (at least) some of ICTs tools are working, it seems I can make them work less and less for me…
the more losses I make, the harder it seems to get out of my string of losses…
very frustrating! 30% accuracy…my god!
I could give you a very objective answer, but it would probably be ripped apart by most on this thread. And no, in case anyone is wondering, it isn’t: “ICT’s tools don’t work”.
Forget the tools, because of ICT i understand the market now this in itself without any tools is bigest thing that could happen in forex world to me 
When u incorporate tools, you are on another dimension
… and would you by any chance share some results which would justify that?
well I really didnt mean to start another fire here… there is only one reason why I dont achieve the results that I want yet…and that is ME!
I also am very happy that I came accross ICT early on because Otherwise I might be hunting EAs and what not…
I also learnt so so much in the past 1.5 years… not only about the markets but about myself…
I just need to realign the time Im spending in forex… which used to be 100% ICT style… and now is 90% ict style and 10% long term trading… and I believe I need to readjust that to 70% long term and maybe 30% ICT at least for the meantime… as my strategy which derived from ICTs material might just not be working that well in such hysterical market environments as we have currently (where relatively low impact news trigger the kind of monkey hammering we have experienced the past few weeks;)) Im not blaming the markets at all… but my strategy which seemed to have worked nicely a few months ago, just doesnt cut it anymore for now;) So I need to take a few steps back… maybe take a break from short term trading and focus on 1. my long term trading (which Im starting to believe just suits my personality better) and 2. create multiple strategies for multiple,different market environments…
I mean, my results the past few months for my short term trading speaks for itself, that I obviously need to get back to the drawing board;)
Im still happy to be on this journey, and I will always be grateful for what I have learned through ICT… and I hope to come up with an improved short term strategy soon (because I currently have the luxury of spare time… So I would love to trade my long term trading strategy together with a short term one (or multiple ones)…)
But if anyone has any suggestions, I’d sure appreciate anything… (although I already have a few ideas of things I need to change and try…)
cheers and keep up the good trading mates!
Sometimes I think it might be easier to stop trying so hard and just trade the 3 ducks! It would at least feel good to catch these big moves, even if we do get in a little late.
Looking at the current scenario for the euro, i see we have higher highs on usdx and higher lows on euro. But the 10 yr bond has lower high.
I know the divergence creates great trading opportunities - But I just can’t make sense of it in my head and I know its been explained to me already. In the previous scenario jonnycab gave the usdx made higher highs - this should imply that the euro wants to go lower, but it didn’t make the lower low - But HOW is this tradeable? Knowing that the USDX is the prevailing factor. That is, the higher high on the usdx implies a downwards trend for the euro, which is why I can’t fathom why I would consider going long in that scenario.
USDX and EU should be mirror images of each other. So if USDX makes a higher high (e.g. today’s high is higher than yesterday’s high) but EU DOES NOT make a lower low (e.g. today’s low is HIGHER than yesterday’s low), then that implies there is some strength in the EU and is a signal for a long. Obviously you need to figure the exact level to place the trade at, such as support level, OTE, whatever.
But obviously if EU keeps on going down from here (e.g. to 1.3020 or lower) then there is no longer any divergence as the USDX will have made a higher high and the EU will have made a lower low.
EDIT: I just reread your post and I’m not sure I answered your question at all. Sorry about that. I just basically explained what divergence is. Hopefully it will help someone anyway…