yes, it is time to be cautious. i like the h1 frame though, reacted above Friday’s low, S1 pivot level of last week’s and this week trinity lower end, formed structure on h1 and m15, support in today’s S1. if that fails, absence of NY traders could still give a London close effect right about this time. 'm in at 2899 and looking for a b/out to breakeven the stop. will see 
Hope you took the 20 pips and ran
New highs on USDX, Looking like new lows on the EUR/USD, GBP/USD falling too…
does persistence really pay or is it just hearsay? took 20 pips close to central pivot, taken out on b/e stop… and long on idea of Z-profile at 2888. most fun around on a really bad weather day!
aha, new highs indeed. 'm wondering if rest of day has potential to push higher the index, or they’ll just Z-around, i might take another 25 maybe?
Michael
Thank you once again for an important video of 26th October of Market Reversal Profile Live Example. This time, there was no commentery. I tried to make understand, is it correct way? How other brothers are interpreting?
1.Look for a pre determined Major price level or previous swing level S/R, for trade setup,
2.Look for latest S/R or Midfig/fulfig with Swing Level
3.Draw OTE in 5m chart and draw nearest S/R
4.Look USDX 15m for over bought / over sold in stockhastic indicator
5.Draw fib level in daily chart look for price in OTE zone or not
6.Draw GMT pivot where price level is
7.Draw ADR level where price is
8. Confirm price is in the Higher Time frame OTE zone with GMT pivot level
9. Look for price sinc with USDx and opposite to foreign currencey and react to the latest swing level
10.Look for price to trade up to logical S/R
11. Anticipate a reaction level
12. Note the Dealing Reange now developed here.
13. Note the OTE Zone to take Entry for predetermined profit level.
14. Look in to the Economical calender in this time
15. Expect the economical news impact
16. Give Stop loss to the fib point to draw OTE.(I usually do)
ICT, when you review or in your PTC video you show as easy as ABC. But we are still struggling. We have seen there are a few OTE level every week in fiber or cable, but you do not trade all of them, what keeps you out to take the trade. Do you consider some extra confluences? It seems to me some confluences abstain you to trade, though there are some good cause. If yes, can you explain of those not to trade, please?
How other brothers are doing in this regards?
Im not sure how useful this will be considering current market conditions (weather related), but I’ll add it anyway.
My weekly analysis from last night:
USDX:
Not much here really, we’ve broken through the 81.10 level. New highs formed last week. As ICT mentioned, a push higher seems to be in the works, targeting the 81.60 high. This is the main driver for me to be overall bearish, but expecting a bit of a push higher before we drop some more…
EUR/USD
Monthly TF:
Bullish uptrend, however, forming fractal high unless 1.3172 is broken. Inverted hammer forming, indicating downward pressure.
Monthly “inside the range” range we are currently trading in:
High: 1.3486 (Feb 2012)
Low: 1.2042 (Jul 2012)
Retracement levels to watch:
62% - 1.2930
OTE - 1.3060
79% - 1.3180
We’ve been around these levels for quite some time (see 4H notes).
Weekly TF:
Last few weeks, consolodating around the 62% retracement level. Fractal high forming if highs from last week hold: 1.3083
New lower low formed: 1.2882, previous weeks low: 1.2891 indicating a possible push lower in the works before we retrace back up.
Daily TF:
Medium term bullish trend (start of October)
Key lows remain intact: 1.2826, 1.2804
Higher highs remain intact: 1.3072, 1.3140
However, we have completed a 79% retracement from inside the current daily TF range.
High: 1.3172
Low: 1.2804
62% - 1.3030
OTE - 1.3060 (also an OTE on the Monthly ;))
79% - 1.3090 (within 15 pips confluence of 1.3080 institutional - Note Short Position on 22nd Oct.)
4H TF:
Short term bearish from mid Oct.
Nearing completion of 79% retracement from lows at the start of Oct. -> Mid Oct. high.
High: 1.3140
Low: 1.2804
62% - 1.2930 (62% level on the Monthly TF).
OTE - 1.29 (big figure, took out the lows on 15th Oct., weekly PP S1)
79% - 1.2875
Anticipating the following levels to the upside:
1.2980 (institutional)
1.3020 (institutional + short term high + weekly PP)
1.3080 (institutional + short term high)
1.3140 (short term high of current downtrend)
Anticipating the following levels to the downside:
1.29 (big figure)
1.2880 (last weeks low)
1.2840 (monthly pivot)
1.2830 (old high / key level)
And the all important chart:
GBP/USD
Monthly TF:
Still consolodating, currently forming a fractal high.
Completed retracement of last months (Septembers) candlestick.
High: 1.6311
Low: 1.5826
62% - 1.6125
OTE - 1.6170 (note big rejection at this level)
79% - 1.6210 (note big rejection at this level)
Current monthly range:
High: 1.6748
Low: 1.5235
62% - 1.6170 (another reason for nice rejection off this level)
OTE - 1.63 (own up, who took a short from here? ;-))
79% - 1.6420
Weekly TF:
Consolodating in a large range, currently working between the 50% and 62% levels of the price range above (current monthly range).
From mid September, quite bearish overall after the turtle soup at 1.63.
New lower low formed: 1.5914, very close to the noted level: 1.5914.
Must have been going for the stops around 1.5913 (Old High).
Daily TF:
Medium term bearish trend, lower highs and lower lows remain intact.
First key high to break should we trend up: 1.6140 (very clean price action on the daily TF).
Current daily range:
High: 1.6311
Low: 1.5914
62% - 1.6160 (within 15 pips of our 1.6150 level)
OTE - 1.6190
78% - 1.6230 (NOTE: old key level of EQUILIBRIUM)
4H TF:
Bearish, maintaining lower highs, lower lows.
Anticipating the following levels to the upside:
1.6140 (old high)
1.6150
1.6170 (OTE short on monthly range)
Anticipating the following levels to the downside:
1.6080 (institutional)
1.6050
1.60 (big figure + support + strong price action)
1.5960 (old low)
1.5910 (old high + last weeks low)
The chart:
Im also looking for other things to consider when performing my analysis, or on ways I can improve. Suggestions welcomed
I basically monitor the big levels:
- institutionals + big figs
- 62% - 79% levels on the daily/weekly/monthly should any coincide
- monthly + weekly pivot points (usually weekly pivots on the 1H TF)
Then once in a trade, use the anticipated levels either up or down for taking profit/moving SL.
I sometimes feel I have too much going on, which perhaps clouds things when they are unfolding…
Having said that, this type of analysis has really helped me to see price action unfold and what to look out for when price hits these key levels.
I think we all interpret price slightly differently, but actually, we use the tools ICT has given us in the same way. For example, I like to use the 1H charts (as suggested by ICT, its a good TF for newbies to start off in, initially mentioned in the “inside the range” webinar vid possibly?) and I do the majority of my anticipation on this time frame.
If you look at the trade ICT posted in that video, by the time he was in the trade, I had already exited my trade and taken roughly the same amount of pips in the opposite direction (documented in this post: 301 Moved Permanently ).
This was based on an overall bearish MS with a nice OTE around the 1.2945 level for getting short.
I would have never spotted (anticipated!) the OTE to get long after the news was out, why? because I was looking for shorts.
Overall MS and your directional bias plays a big part I think.
I cant count the amount of times I’ve miss a counter-trend trade that would have landed a massive amount of pips, because I was so biased towards one way or the other. I’m not saying this is a bad thing, but it does play a big part in how you trade.
Also, having the sort of insight that ICT has doesnt come overnight… hes been at this a long time (as with many other successful traders on here). Having that sort of intuition will come over time, but it does take quite a bit of analysis and patience to stick at it before it “clicks”.
Some of PipHangers recent posts highlighted this big time. He got in sync with how the markets were flowing and made a lot of impressive trades 
From my own perspective, the more time I devote to weekly analysis (and rewatching the ICT material) the more things begin to “click”. Plenty more to learn here for me, this is why its so important for me to get the basics down and become consistent, before I start looking to maximize every big move the market throws out there.
Thanks for the insight. If you dont mind when your done cataloging feel free to post your reference points of the video that you find information on here. This would make my life easier haha. Mean while i’ll keep digging for info through the videos too.
Just a thought with the Holy Grail and using the Reflection Pattern.
ICT’s Video on the Holy Grail 2 divergences are described using the “Standard” OTE ie the buy signal with higher lows on the currency pair and lower lows on the Stochastic. The sell signal with lower highs on the currency pair and higher highs on the stochastic.
I was training myself to look for the pattern and sometimes I would mess up the divergences with lower lows on the currency pair and higher lows on the stochastic. But using the buy reflection ote I found valid signals and the reverse with higher highs on the pair and lower highs on the stochastic for the sell.
Just a thought, I could be barking up the wrong tree or ICT may have covered it.
NY Shut again to today, so not much action again.
Peterma,
thank you for your kind words and advises. You and Jonnycab took my pain close to heart and tried to help. Lessons taken, no more any live trades till trading plan on base of latest ICT examples is not ready. Sharing of your observations, researches and expectations also very helpful. Thanks a lot and all the best to community here which never lives you alone.
beginer.
closed second half of yesterday’s eu long at 2957.
good trading everyone! over and out
Good job. I was thinking of a short from 1.2970 (weekly PP + 62% retracement of current range) but I have a feeling we’re probably heading higher. That level also occurred around NYO and NY are closed so no real volatility to get things moving…
Will be watching 1.3020 to confirm downtrend if we dont break that level…
Surely you mean 1.29[B]80[/B] 
Considering the jump + its an OTE, ofcourse 
But just the fact that it’s the 80 level, I’ve been really focusing on the levels (20,80,50), just for the EURO, different for other pairs, today it’s gone from near as damn to the 80 level to a 50 level, then from 50 to 80.
I just can’t believe I never realised before how actually significant these levels are.
:18:, awesome! after you mentioned the levels i’ve started to pay attention to how structure forms around these, we may be onto something good
Well, at the very least they are not to be ignored.
most definitely. 'm going to watch especially in hopes of improving my exits, and overall i really like the idea of ms.
I’m jumping on the 00 20 50 80 bandwagon… Simplifying everything makes life that much easier. Interesting that price jumped from the 80 to another 80 today on the fiber