Lets see how this one pans out, London Close OTE reversal, short @ 1.2981. I was expecting a bit more aggressive profit taking, so I guess we are probably going higher, but you never know
Iāve taken 50% @ 20 pips and stops to just above BE. I guess the Asian session will stop me out, but I havenāt really traded the LC and quite a few key levels/ideas/patterns were converging, along with an aggressive run up so I thought why notā¦ (I always set my Stop Limit to 30 pips, then adjust as required should we have the appropriate volatility)
I think youāre onto something with this PPFX, I guess this is why ICT puts so much emphasis on the institutional levels. Could be useful for scalping 10 pips or so in the opposite direction to the trend, or even getting back in sync with the market if you miss the initial move, like today:
Rallied up through 1.2920, back down to it again and continueā¦
Rallied up through 1.2950, back down through it, then continueā¦
Make the daily high at 1.2980ā¦
Iām in from the same level, OTE on the 4H and MS bearish. SL at just below BE so if Asia doesnāt stop me out, could be in this for the rest of the week.
Remember high or low of the week made by tuesday (Iām rooting for high here
Hey if you look at usdx price was unable to break trough that 80.20 level after so many attempts it just reversed and looks like it might be trending lower. As we are range bound i have a feeling we probably will be seeing some upside on the fibre cable, at least for now as usdx possibly slides lower back in to consolidation range ā¦
I have been playing with fibo and i would expect at short term retrace after todayās run-up and then a push higher.
[B]USEFUL STATS[/B]
Based on data from 1st Jan 2004 to date, for cable - the high or low gets made by 10pm GMT on the tuesday 81% of the time. For fiber, itās marginally less at 80% ā¦ pretty much what ICT says in his videos. Based on a 5 day trading week, if all things were equal, the high or low should made by end of play tuesday 40% of the time. So here is an edge already. Add wednesday to the mix and it goes up to 95% of the time.
I must stress though that this on itās own is pretty useless [B]unless [/B]as ICT states, you have a directional bias because you donāt know if itās the high or the low that is LIKELY to be hit ā¦
LOLā¦Iām sitting at home looking at the weeks highs and lows and trying to figure out how to catch themā¦
My trading has been slipping again and Iām starting to lose trades left and right, so I stopped trading for the time being againā¦The consistency thing is the hardest thing to achieve in thisā¦the reason I find it hard, because itās not A+B=C which we are all use too in daily lifeā¦Each weeks trading is completely different and you might have to use different tools to capture the moveā¦I have no idea how to be consistent with this since everything changes from day to dayā¦
One week you could use the previous weeks high or low to get OTE, next week it could just drop off with out much of an entry, following week it might be fridays high or low you get an OTE fromā¦I know you have to line these up with Key Support and Resistance levels, but my levels could be off by 30 pips from where price might bounce, sometimes they could be dead onā¦
One trade might break market structure and then give you a nice OTE for a long, another trade could break market structure and just keep on going, and another trade could miss your OTE by a little bit before taking off leaving you hangingā¦
With the Weekly high or low being 95% of the time during Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesdayā¦well thatās obvious because that only leaves you two trading days left in the weekā¦The problem is determining which day it will beā¦FOR EXAMPLEā¦
Right now look at the cableā¦Did we put in the low on Monday and then entry on Tuesday??? Are we forming an OTE right this second from Sundayās high down to Mondays low for the Weekly High???
Right now look at the fiberā¦Same thing as cableā¦but did we put in weekly high using last Thursdayās high to recent low???
95% of the time I see the move a day lateā¦
These are the questions Iām lacking to figure out at this momentā¦Need to continue studying, but it just feels like Iām missing or not understanding something ICT is showing me each tradeā¦
Since we are on the subject, another thing is the same wayā¦SMT Divergenceā¦
Like right now we are at a previous days low on cable and ran up into itā¦We have Bearish SMT between Fiber and Cable from Sundayās High to most recent highsā¦Is this just cable lagging behind or is it really SMT?
Or is the SMT from Last weeks lows to most recent lows the Bullish SMT between Fiber and Cableā¦This is also off of Key Levels Previous Weeks Lows???
Hopefully something clicks with this because Iām driving myself nutsā¦:30:
Itās not really obvious to most, because as you said each trading day is different so that means by wednesday the high or low should get hit 60% of the time ā¦ but it gets hit 95% ā¦
To be honest PH Iāve found the SMT on the Cable - Fiber just confuses the issue for me and I now just use EURGBP to try and work out which of the pairs is a better long or short.
So for direction I use, in no particular order :-
Power of 3, HT S&D, U.S. Indexes (for Risk On/Off), USDX (for levels there), HT Market Stucture and HT EURGBP (for which pair will likely be better to trade in that direction). And ofcourse HT Fibs.
But if you can get the SMTās to work for you, then more power to you and Iāll be asking for some lessons from you.
Hey akeakamai Iām just putting in my thoughts here. I do think stacking is good BUT I think there needs to be consistency. Yes makes sure you have 3-5 confluences BUT Iām leaning towards they should be the same 5 every trade. We especially as beginners need consistency even more than an edge IMO. As a profitable trader you need both but consistency needs to be ingrained from the earliest stage. Again just my thought based in my trading. Now my recent mountainous drawdown was also due to other factors. Me being stupid mostly lol and running and EA.
AK great post. Truly great. I hope everyone reads this and takes it to heart. Truly truly take it to heart. Just because the market moves does not mean you must trade. Is today worth the time and effort and risk? If you have a question mark in your head staring at you chart to figure that out then you already have your answer. Why are you trying to figure out what direction to trade? If you did not know this already today was not worth trading (back to question 1). Is the price worth trading? IF you do not already know this is today worth trading (back to question 1). The tools and everything help guide you to answer question 1. If you answer question 1 with a question then its not worth trading. Close the trading machine and go fishing (or what ever you like to do). Why do you think I have gone fishing so much lately. I do not hunt trades I trade them.
Ak I have truly not seen a better post in a long time even though it sounds simple that is a major part to being profitable. I am sure ICT will agree great post
@PIPHanger
Trying to find the Weekly highs and lows is tricky, I think you should only use this for bias, once you think itās been established.
Are you waiting for āeasy tradingā, for years Iāve been waiting until the market has made a biggish move and trading off of those retracements, so often it moves say 100 PIPS, then retraces before it moves another 100 PIPS, then you do kind of get A+B=C.
30 PIPS out, sounds like the distance from 80 to 50 keep an eye on the 20/50/80 levels especially on the EUR, stick to one pair until youāve got it ārightā.
It doesnāt matter if you donāt catch the move, once itās happened use that information and donāt let it bother you.
Remember what ICT keeps saying, get 50 - 80 PIPS a week, if you donāt trade Mon, Tue, Wed, you still have a good chance to get that before the end of the week.
I donāt think you are missing or not understanding much, on the contrary, you could well be trying too hard.
That makes a very good point, just because you have a set of tools you donāt need to use all of them, I just focus on one pair, itās what Iāve always done, it works for me, and Iām not about to change.
Very sound advise PPFX, but if following the plan of only trading THU-FRI, watch out this week, you might get burned by the NFP.
Or are you going to do some nifty setups with the āmagic numbersā
Interesting to see the reaction to the price levels though.
As for the EU, weāre making lower lows on the 4H, price was above the Weekly open, we have touched the sweet spot yesterday (yes, the 1.2980 level :D)
So when following the ācatch explosive forex videoā, a good short setup was formed and I entered it.
First tp is already bagged (20 pips, stop to BE). I like to keep the tp numbers in sync, so my profit taking is also 4 fold (20, 50, 80 pips and let the remainder go)
How do you know if today is worth it? I understand how to figure out what direction is worth it and what price. Also I go back to gambling and odds alot which i think forex has a lot in common. Say you trade one day a week every but the day you trade maybe you see OTE with smt at a big figure in line with the directional bias at the NYO. What do you think the percentages of that trade netting the daily range is on that trade 85%? Then next week you get a reflection at a 20 or 80 level with stochastic divergence at the LO. what would that percentage be 70%? But those are 2 completely different trades and they could both be losers you could trade like this alot and not get a winner because you arent repeating that one edge over and over. It would be like using a different bat every time you went to the plate. Or maybe its like using whatever lure is best fit :D.(hard for someone less advanced to pick what situation we are in tho) But say you take the first trade and trade only that set up i would say that would swing it to your favor a lot more. Not many trades but You would get some real good ones and ICT said himself his tools keep you out of trades. Maybe Michael does pick his confluences. But hes a lot more advanced and i honestly think this trading style is pretty advanced heās real in tune with the market its hard to just come in and pick that up at least for me. But maybe i understand wrong maybe he looks at where he thinks price is going more and tries to get in line with that using his tools. Thatās still pretty advanced tho lolā¦i think. Guys i do apologize for my word vomit lol hopefully someone can read through it and find it thought provoking.
