Inner Circle Trader's Pro Traders Club 2012 - 2013 Series

[hopiplaka]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought ICT said in the “catch explosive forex” video said that in a bullish market, the low of the week was formed between Tuesday LO and Wednesday LO 80% of the time, and else it was between Week open and Tuesday LO (and vice versa for bearish markets).

Also, I think it was in the “Inside the range” video, he said to just watch price go on Monday, see what it does, which way it goes.
So that’s why I only try to stalk a nice setup as of Tuesday LO, and keep focussed until Wednesday LO
Of course, when I find a trade, I keep double focussed until the trade is closed

[B]USEFUL STATS[/B]
Based on data from 1st Jan 2004 to date, for cable - the high or low gets made by 10pm GMT on the tuesday 81% of the time. For fiber, it’s marginally less at 80% … pretty much what ICT says in his videos. Based on a 5 day trading week, if all things were equal, the high or low should made by end of play tuesday 40% of the time. So here is an edge already. Add wednesday to the mix and it goes up to 95% of the time.

I must stress though that this on it’s own is pretty useless [B]unless [/B]as ICT states, you have a directional bias because you don’t know if it’s the high or the low that is LIKELY to be hit …

[RookieForex]

Since we are on the subject, another thing is the same way…SMT Divergence…

Like right now we are at a previous days low on cable and ran up into it…We have Bearish SMT between Fiber and Cable from Sunday’s High to most recent highs…Is this just cable lagging behind or is it really SMT?

Or is the SMT from Last weeks lows to most recent lows the Bullish SMT between Fiber and Cable…This is also off of Key Levels Previous Weeks Lows???

Hopefully something clicks with this because I’m driving myself nuts…:30:

I fully agree with you PH. SMT is one tool which we can see how powerful it is, but it is one that confuses me a lot too.

Just on Monday during Asian range, there are three divergences between USDX/EUR/GBP. Maybe it’s just me, but EUR/GBP are not really moving in tandem since last week, so I am seeing a lot of SMT divergence occuring at key levels.

When we look at different TFs, there is bound to be an SMT to be spotted, but how far back should we project the SMT so that it is a real SMT. 10 bars, 20 bars or 50 bars? I don’t think this is something ICT can specifically teach. It comes with chart experience, so I just got to look more :51:

[purplepatchforex]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought ICT said in the “catch explosive forex” video said that in a bullish market, the low of the week was formed between Tuesday LO and Wednesday LO 80% of the time, and else it was between Week open and Tuesday LO (and vice versa for bearish markets).

Yes, I have no idea where the bearish view on the EURO has come from.

[RookieForex]

Very sound advise PPFX, but if following the plan of only trading THU-FRI, watch out this week, you might get burned by the NFP.
Or are you going to do some nifty setups with the “magic numbers”
Interesting to see the reaction to the price levels though.

As for the EU, we’re making lower lows on the 4H, price was above the Weekly open, we have touched the sweet spot yesterday (yes, the 1.2980 level :D)

So when following the “catch explosive forex video”, a good short setup was formed and I entered it.
First tp is already bagged (20 pips, stop to BE). I like to keep the tp numbers in sync, so my profit taking is also 4 fold (20, 50, 80 pips and let the remainder go)

If I remember correctly, the Pros will try to book their profits by Thursday during a NFP week. Given the two days of closure in NY, we are left with Wed/Thu for the action.

[purplepatchforex]

Breaks out of Asian range, where to? [B]50[/B] level !

Easy as pie.

[hopiplaka]

Have you considered creating an EA for this, or at least did some backtesting?
I’m curious to know what the results are.
It seems like lately this strategy works, but I tried this (breakout of LO, go to next figure) on a random date (somewhere in 2010) and I got mixed results.
I got better results when the tp was 15 pips, but I don’t like the 1:1 risk to reward ratio

Breaks out of Asian range, where to? [B]50[/B] level !

Easy as pie.

[purplepatchforex]

Have you considered creating an EA for this, or at least did some backtesting?
I’m curious to know what the results are.
It seems like lately this strategy works, but I tried this (breakout of LO, go to next figure) on a random date (somewhere in 2010) and I got mixed results.
I got better results when the tp was 15 pips, but I don’t like the 1:1 risk to reward ratio

Backtesting is always of limited value, you never know if there has been a news announcement and stuff.

But yes I’m always thinking of an EA, 2 dreams I have, the first is to consistently scalp around 25 PIPS, in a simple manner, the other is to write an EA to do it for me, a semi automatic EA.

But at the moment, I’m just on holiday in scalp city, i.e. with the weather in the States, and NFP, I’m in experimental learning mode, and I’m looking to trade off of my StochRSI, when OB or OS and confluenced with the levels.

Not sure yet if 5m or 15m will be best, quite possibly the 5m, since you are filtering out a lot just by trading off of those levels.

EDIT: So now I’ll be looking for it to pullback to 80, StochRSI OS, then long.

[purplepatchforex]

I do hope you guys in the States, are getting over the storm now, and the recovery process won’t take too long, I really do feel for you, I don’t think we can appreciate what it’s like in the UK.

Sandy seems to have left a path of destruction nearly as bad as Jimmy Saville.

[purplepatchforex]

Right, think about this, it’s moved from 1.2880, to 1.2980, that’s 100 PIPS right, it’s then started the next part of the move from 1.2950, so where’s one of the most likeliest targets?

[jmfx]

I say 1.3020, if it will reach it by NY open/London close we might have a reversal. (we have confluence of ADR, pivots, 2 weeks ago high, plus your institutional number of 20) other option a small retracement soon and head of higher. Thats my view for today.

Edit: 1.30010, 0050 OTE + plus some pivots. look for reaction from this spot.

[purplepatchforex]

No, 1.3050, 1.2950 + 100 PIPS.

Mirrors

[jonnycab]

Nice action this morning, update on the remainder of my short, I left the stop limit of 30 pips in place and closed out the rest of the trade, so overall not bad.

I missed the long from 1.2950 though (my stop limit was just above this)! (I was up too late, saw my short was closed and missed the boat).

[purplepatchforex]

Nice action this morning, update on the remainder of my short, I left the stop limit of 30 pips in place and closed out the rest of the trade, so overall not bad.

I missed the long from 1.2950 though (my stop limit was just above this)! (I was up too late, saw my short was closed and missed the boat).

Don’t worry, we know what will happen, back down to 80 level, resistance turned into support, long for another 70 PIPS, now let’s see if it follows the script

[rod178]

Fiber - putting myself in the position of an evil bankster (wish) I’d now take out the stops sitting above 13020 before slamming the price down to at least 12980 or lower, such as 12920

[purplepatchforex]

Fiber - putting myself in the position of an evil bankster (wish) I’d now take out the stops sitting above 13020 before slamming the price down to at least 12980 or lower, such as 12920

Yes, that’s the idea, love it.

[purplepatchforex]

There we go again, hit the 20 level, so what now, well if it finds support back at the 80 level, I think we need to be looking at the 1.3050 level, if it breaks, it’s unlikely to get there in the short term.

[purplepatchforex]

And there we are, back at 80, so now will it go up, or was 3020 the top like jmfx said?

Who was it that said trading was hard ?

[hopiplaka]

We might test the asian range high soon, so there’s a high probability the 80 figure will be reached.

Do you have a fixed number of pips for the breakout?
Also, what do you do when asian range was larger than average?

Also, it looks like you not only trade the LO (breakout), but also NO and possibly LC with the big fig numbers?

And there we are, back at 80, so now will it go up, or was 3020 the top like jmfx said?

Who was it that said trading was hard ?

[purplepatchforex]

We might test the asian range high soon, so there’s a high probability the 80 figure will be reached.

Do you have a fixed number of pips for the breakout?
Also, what do you do when asian range was larger than average?

Also, it looks like you not only trade the LO (breakout), but also NO and possibly LC with the big fig numbers?

Like I said earlier, I’m taking a break from actual trading, with all the stuff going on, and just focusing on these big numbers on the EURO and nothing else, so I’m sorry I don’t have an answer for your questions, simply because I just haven’t thought about it!

Just as a note though, when I refer to a level I take it as reached if it’s within 5 PIPS either side.

[jonnycab]

Do you have a fixed number of pips for the breakout?

I was waiting for a double tap off the 1.3020 before I was getting short (or a pullback into an OTE on 15M), but my plan was to TP @ 1.2985, which was just above the highs from yesterday.

I always try to limit scalps to around 30 pips and this number fell within that.

Always look left on the chart for possible nearby levels of support/resistance (I see price reacted nicely around that 1.2985 level.)