Inner Circle Trader's Pro Traders Club 2012 - 2013 Series

Back to business then, lets go make some pips then, whoever said that money can’t buy you health was a fool, we are so lucky here in the UK to have the NHS, but it can still be topped up with some private care, and it’s one of the things I think a lot about, it can be tough in the States, but even then there is so much of the world where there is so many people that even that is not their primary concern, I think it’s something like if you have a bed to sleep in and a roof over your head you are amongst the most privileged 30% of the world’s population.

I hope one day to make a small impact in that, by sharing some of my pips, but for the moment, shall we share a thought once more for the one’s in the States that have had a tragic experience because of the storm, and also some further thoughts, for the one’s around the world that have to live with these kind of experiences on a daily basis.

Well Said. Our “disaster” with no power and limited food is the everyday life of most of the world.

If I understand right, our current increase in the USD futures COT indicates foreign currencies will tank. But I’m not sure how to interpret the decline in open interest. A season decline in open interest indicates a change in the current trend (up for Cable-Fiber), meaning we are looking at a decline in these pairs seasonally. Am I reading this right?

Generally yes, but you can’t take too much from that, it’s extremities that count.

Barcharts.com and cotpricecharts.com are the best two free resources I’ve found.

Re interpretation, as ppf says you want to be looking for relative extremes (not necessarily just over one year - best over 3 to 5 as per Larry Williams - if my understanding of his work id correct that is) and you cant get more than one years data free (unless anyone knows different?).

One other thing to bear in mind is that LW states that the relationship between the commercials position and OI is what is critical and it is itself dependent on the prevailing trend as to whether the relative position of the two suggest a buy or a sell.

Also cot gives you futures data on USD, GBP, EURO etc in isolation and you need to take account of both futures in the cross if trading the spot market. It might sound a bit tricksy but LW does explain it all rather well in his book - Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders - Secrets of the Cot Report.

Hope that helps

Hi Vinster.

The increase in COTs means that as USD futures are going down…the commercials are building their longs.

What one has to understand is that the COMs trade diff from us…they buy as the price goes down …and sell as the price goes up. We and the large specs do the opposite , we ride the up and sell the down.

With that in perspective, what you need to interpret is that if u didnt short the USD when the commercials were ( over a 6 month , etc etc period , finally net short ) you will have to use OTEs and market flow to catch the falling USDx. So …right now…week gone by… 26 Oct … they have reached neutral …juuust above zero levels… from here they could go either way… back down …or move up.

Next …most people dont know that COTS report is released on Friday …but it is for the day ending tuesday gone by… so …on 03 Nov ( saturday) morning …the report you will read is for the Tuesday just gone by.

OI: As price rises from net shorts… if OI is decreasing … means people are covering their shorts. A thumb rule : price up , OI up = Long postions , Price down and OI up = short positions being built up. BUT… Price up and OI reducing = longs liquidating= " i dont care if the price goes up further" … similarly … Price down and OI reducing = shorts getting covered = I dont care how much lower the price goes to ( in actuals OI decreases at pre determined levels , and its not as if they dont care :slight_smile: )

Hope that helps you.

Hey PPF - just doing a review on fibre - was looking at stochs 10,3,3 just looking how good were they at giving signals with type 1 & 2 - not bad - but know what? - your wee indi was’nt doing so bad - on a like for like basis just looking at o/s yesterday and today - you indi gave a better signal - over the week far fewer signals given - a good sign.

A person could do worse than include the indi as confirmation before taking a trade.

The bond thing is really opening my eyes - am still testing - but results so far are impressive.

Have to take issue re the grandma/pa thing - they’re getting younger - mind you when I’m telling stories to my grandkids about walking to school in my bare feet they believe me :slight_smile:

You can get all historical data direct from the CTFC:
Commitments of Traders - CFTC

Whack it into excel and you’ll have everything you need plus more …

txs 'chilled - good point :confused:

Maybe it’s a first today!

It’s turned out very positive for me, remember a couple of weeks ago I posted about my CO poisoning experience, and I’m lucky to be alive, honestly it was close, and I’m still recovering from all the dullness and the impatience that you get from it. And obviously some of that intolerance came out this morning in the form of my response to Clint’s posting. CO poisoning can have a serious impact on your brain and mentality, but I’m pretty sure I’ve got away with it, I do feel my usual self some of the time, but a lot of the time I’m trying hard to be my usual self, I know I will be my usual self in not too long a time once I’ve got all the toxins out of my body, but from what I’ve read on the net, many won’t be so lucky.

And a thank you to wigglez for my making me think of Gran, she used to keep saying ‘Every cloud has a silver lining’, poor dear had an inverted understanding of the saying, it was quite weird when she came out with it at times. But maybe from the CO thing, and my brain not operating like it normally was, out of necessity it made me only able to actually work on less things concurrently, hence the BIG focus on the levels and nothing else, and at a rough calculation it made about 150 PIPS or so just from trading these levels, and it’s not been the easiest market.

Funny thing is, this morning I saw the biggest most beautiful rainbow ever, and I never use the words never or ever loosely, was it bringing me the pot of gold? NO, it was pure coincidence and don’t give me that mysterious ways thing :wink:

The higher power for me comes from the power within ourselves to create it, a great bunch of people making the sum of the parts a great synergy.

It’s a paradox and an irony, but my development as a trader and a person has made significant strides in the last couple of weeks, and being honest about it, the above is not completely my own thoughts, ICT has been very influential!

Put it this way, I’ve not looked at Chris Lori’s trading the levels video yet, but I bet when I do, I won’t learn anything new, not because I’m so clever I figured it out, it’s to do with ‘The Wisdom Of Crowds’ , and as a crowd, a community, a general goodness of thought and people, we are making headway.

SO, a BIG a VERY BIG THANK YOU, to all of you, for everything, and of course especially ICT, Michael, for having the balls, the forethought, the understanding, the intelligence, the leadership qualities, the patience, the caring and sharing that he shows.

Onwards and upwards.

Hey look - http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/46497-thoughts-amy-sangster-infiniteprosperity-com-au-6.html#post415963

Never been so pleased to see a posting.

Yeah I knew he survived after he liked by post in the mug shot thread.

I’ve been suppressing this urge to tell this story for a long while, and all of a sudden I feel it’s the right time, I just know it is.

Years back I took the Sid Wyemann course, and for £500 he gives you a 14 day money back warranty on a 6 week course, in the first two weeks, he shows in detail how to use the Oanda platform, so you think there’s better to come, he only takes newbies!

Then in the last week, what does he do, he tells you about the ‘Cat and Mouse’ strategy, for the life of me I couldn’t trade it, but from a very few others I figured it did work, and this part of the story is on the C & M thread, I wrote the simulator, and I practiced and practiced it, and did trade it profitably, because you could practice the action 10 times an hour as opposed to 10 times a fortnight, heck for a £100 (well £99) it was mega value for money compared to what he was offering, it’s like ICT said the other day, the expensive part is the time you spend learning. I also knew that a very few people were trading it profitably before I developed the simulator, and so I had the idea of getting that fast learning thing.

Now the thing at this point was that I was so poor I couldn’t afford my drink, at one point I had to stop putting milk in my coffee because I couldn’t afford it, but I was so committed to the Forex project because the potential was clear.

The problem for me was that I do like my drink, a little excessively (note the contradiction in terms;) ) at times, but a good drink with friends on Saturday night, wouldn’t give me a clear enough head to trade it until Wednesday! Yes, a hangover on Sunday, only 95% on Monday, then Tuesday to focus on what you should be doing, and Wednesday the 100% clear head to trade, then on Thursday it’s getting to the end of the week!

So when I started earning from it, I could once more start to enjoy what I enjoyed, I did actually raise my original trading capital from scratch from my PPF site after going bankrupt, you have no idea how little it was, but the compounding effect works, and I’ve been careful with my actual trading capital, and trading when the going is good and stopping and learning when I started hitting losses. The other problem was that as well as having to have a mega clear head and a mega focus on the long term, was the question if that particular volatility was sustainable in the longer term, that I cannot answer, all I do know is that it was and maybe is still profitable and I gave a thousand times more value for money than the Sid guy.

It makes me laugh, and sometimes I get annoyed with some of the naysayers, that say that I’m on here to advertise my site and that’s the way I make money from forex, I tell you the money I’ve earned from that site, wouldn’t pay most peoples food bill, I have earned more money trading from what I’ve learned from you guys here at Babypips.com.

That’s why I’m always at it with all these newbies advertising their wares, they think they can come here just to get clients to make them a tonne of dosh. It dont work like that, and I’m sure I’m doing them a favour by putting them off so they don’t waste their time thinking that, that is the case.

I will finish with some genuine thank you’s, first of all to petefader which whet my appetite to realise that real analytical profitable trading was possible, secondly but more importantly to ICT, for which I will never forget the day he commented on my ‘15m chart basics of profitable trading’ thread, that day it made me think I need to take a really serious look at his ‘stuff’, ICT - you showed me so much respect for what I was trying to do. Last but not least, all you guys (and galls, please accept the terminology, I use it inclusively and certainly not exclusively), you are are so much help.

Let’s do this.

Purple,
When you say you are learning levels, you are referring to just reading PA at the key S/R levels? Getting in at OTE and letting it run?

ICT glad to see you’re back. I’m in NJ and it has been less than fun.

Thanks to everyone for being so helpful.

ICT says in a couple places in the videos “If you learn this one thing, you will never need to learn anything else.” Trading fractals in a ranging market, he said, was one of them. He said when he learned that it really opened his trading up. This was in his video about trading short term trends using the 18 and 40 EMA and since that video was not about trading ranging markets but trending ones, he wasn’t going to get into it. I wasn’t able to find out about trading the ranging markets this way. Does anyone know?

Inside the range webinar from the front page other thread Inside The Range Webinar-20120819.mp4 - 4shared.com - online file sharing and storage - download will help you out also I think part 6 video, that’s due out today will have info in it that you need.

Wally

[video=youtube_share;TPJ6Sh50TZo]http://youtu.be/TPJ6Sh50TZo[/video]

[B]GLGT[/B] :57:

Thanks Michael. Am trying to use pricecharts for 5 and 10 yr t note on 5 minute. But one has to keep refreshing them. No its not a paid account.

Anyone can suggest something whr its live ?

Avametatrader?

How much cooler was this with an AC/DC intro :smiley: