Euro Bund has hit Oct resistance at 142.00 and showing signs of bounce - lets see what happens fibre.
Taking all bets!
Whats the plan for today? How madly will price swing?
My prediction: 1.2830, then if the numbers are good, we’ll swing up to 1.2930 and beyond…
No trades for me today, what are you expectations/estimations? 
Woke up to 80 pips this morning. Jonnycab, I think this week was a stop run. We’ve probably seen 1.3 for the last time this year.
Congrats!
Yes, I reckon we are probably moving lower overall, but I think we could see some nice price volatility today.
Having said that, the reaction to last months NFP was laughable, price barely moved
Not following tonight due to NFP.
However, note that last night (22:50 GMT) the price retraced before continuing down into the AS, after which it collapsed.
So?, you well may think.
Well the m5 high at 22:50 GMT (my local time 06:50am) was 12950.
Maybe worth a short at 12920, “IF” it gets there, subject to further analysis. eg the not good is that, at first glance, would be selling into support AS H3, AS L4, dS1 (my daily Pivot starts at GMT+3, which is my data feed)
TP 12880 for 40 pips
edit: TP on my short last night at 12944, for 36 pips
My current bias is strongly bearish
The more significant NFP is tonignt at 12:30 GMT. Yesterdays (ADP Non-Farm Employment Change) is only a warm up.
Yea, its been an interesting week overall. My EUR/USD analysis at the start of the week wasnt bad (price retraced quite a bit more than I expected, but we did get the lower low drop). My GBP/USD analysis was way off :18:
I meant the release at the start of October
Low Impact yesterday
Source Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (latest release)
The ADP National Employment Report® is published monthly by the ADP Research InstituteSM in close collaboration with Moody’s Analytics and its experienced team of labor market researchers. The ADP National Employment Report provides a monthly snapshot of U.S. nonfarm private sector employment based on actual transactional payroll data.
Source: Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures: The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
High Impact NFP tonight
Source : Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures : Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry;
Source : Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures : Percentage of the total work force unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month
Fiber - nice bounce off 12850
note that ADR low is 12879
Yep, right off the weekly S1!
Fiber - note that 12850 has been retested and rejected.
wick penetration less than 5 pips
If I was trading I would have entered at 12848 and after the first wick formation moved the stop to 5 pips from the wick tip. Another retest of 12850 probably will result in collapse of this support.
My strong bearish bias plus it being Friday makes only for observation.
Mine too. I was trading on a 4h chart so my position is small and stops wide. It has come back and hopefully it gets into profit.
there she goes - 12850 broken again
Below is the final update (for this season) to the ICT Kill Zone Table. Current changes are highlighted in yellow.
Note that the return to Standard Time in the U.S. and Canada (this weekend) will change the Kill Zones, as follows:
• for traders in the U.S. and Canada, the Asian Session KZ, the LO KZ, and the LC KZ will change by one hour
• for traders in all other locations, the NYO KZ will change by one hour.
The next update to the ICT Kill Zone Table will be in March 2013, when we will begin another cycle of time changes.
Notes:
1. If you happen to be in one of the 7 time zones listed in the left-hand column, you can read the 4 Kill Zone times directly from this table. The times shown are current in your time zone.
2. If your time zone is not listed in the left-hand column, start with the time zone closest to yours, and add or subtract the appropriate number of hours to the Kill Zone times shown.
Examples:
• if you are in any city in India, subtract 2½ hours from all the times on the line labeled “SINGAPORE time”.
• if you are in any city in Greece, add 1 hour to the times shown on the line labeled “ZURICH time”.
• if you are in Dallas or Chicago, subtract 1 hour from the times on the line labeled “NEW YORK time”.
• if you are in Los Angeles or Vancouver, subtract 3 hours from the times on the line labeled “NEW YORK time”.
3. The Kill Zone periods shown in this table are minimum periods. They can be expanded at your discretion.
For example, you might choose to expand the London Open Kill Zone by 1 hour, by starting a half hour earlier and ending a half hour later than the times shown in the table.
4. For additional time-zone and time-change information, see this thread.
Wow, that is very indepth. Thanks for the information.
I need to try and think in gmt so I have less to worry about.
Actually, GMT is nothing more than a time zone.
The Asian Session Kill Zone never changes with respect to GMT (because neither GMT, nor JST, is affected by DST).
But, the other three Kill Zones do change, twice per year, with respect to GMT.
yeah, zulu time.
have to remember when markets open in zulu time, won’t have to worry about timezones or dst
I don`t drink but I will raise this carton of Five alive to you clint.
And the reversion back to 2-4am KZ I hate 3-5am
In an older post I said that I was cataloguing ICT’s Review Videos which are titled only by their date.
This was the list posted on Oct 7th:-
07-29-12 bonds at 20min
06-01-12 HIDDEN ote
07-15-12 Holy Grail
06-16-12 Reflection
10-04-12 Daily Bias
09-30-12 SlopeTrend at 8min
09-16-12 FuturesConfirm at 8min
08-13-12 WklTrinInAction at 12min
08-13-12 FibExtnTool at 18min
08-08-12 NestedOte at 5min
08-04-12 ProtectStop at 20min
06-24-12 TurtleSoup at 20min
05-20-12 FibOnGap at 9min
04-29-12 MAsandFractalIndi
04-22-12 MAs_switchbear_bull
03-26-12 ICTStinger at 9min
I have been going back to the beginning of ICT’s youtube channel.
My notes on ICT review videos, hope ICT does’nt mind.
Dates in US format, where no time given means at start of video.
03/06/12
08.00 mins How ICT became bearish on daily/4hr/1hr
13.50 ICT Stinger
15.30 London Close - use as set up for swing trade and not just a scalp.
03/26/12
08.45 Market flow & structure / ICT Stinger
11.30 Projection of Asian Hi/Lo accross chart
03/21/12
Review of market entry/ 40 pip Asian range/ non fill of order/
Take Profit and the ADR
05.46 Within the daily range and the 62% retracement.
04/01/12
Use of Trinity with Fibs.
April 2012 Video Titled weekly price action review.(not in HD)
This whole video contains many topics incl physcology/ news/ ote
58.00 mins Use of fibs on broken market structure for target.
04/15/12
06.00 How to set target if swing low broken.
14.20 SMT divergence on daily.
04/22/12
04.20 Daily - 18/40 ema / blending of Sunday’s candle with Mon’s
Change from bearish to bullish
How price action set bias on daily.
06.20 How to switch gear.
07.30 Trinity in action.
10.30 Use of Asian range.
12.30 Market Makers Business Model.
15.30 When a swing high becomes a swing point.Use of fib for target.
22.00 Use of fib extension tool.
04/29/12
04.20 Use of Bill Williams Fractals on MT4
ICT’s use on 3 bar formation.
07.30 How to anticipate where price is trying to reach to on daily chart.
05/05/12
Risk Off - calling the hi and lo
Divergence on the US indicies.
20.00 Hidden OTE
05/20/12
03.40 Market Structure break
07.00 Broken market structure on daily - watch closely
09.20 Runaway gap - use of fib on gap for target.
05/27/12
10.50 Data Screw Up in action.
06/01/12
Market flow and structure change.
18.00 USDX SMT Divergence and how to use.
I find that often the review videos contain hidden gems not to be missed.