Inner Circle Trader's Pro Traders Club 2012 - 2013 Series

Beginner Questions
1771

This might resonate with some traders. (been there)

Now you’ve seen Traders Plan 6, you may be thinking, right, got it now, BUT remember not to look too hard, this is where the balance is between profits and mega profits, if the profile you are looking at doesn’t quite fit, it’s not there, it’s something else.

For some traders like me, you’re natural tendency is to look too hard, so like ICT says in his video, he took a step back so he could see it clearly, it’s the same thing, if you can’t see it, it’s not there, take a step back to the HTF, then if it’s not 100% clear on the Daily, it’s going to be 10 times trickier on the shorter timeframes.

1772

Here is a quick annotated 1hr chart from mid October, where a intermediate term high was formed

Click on the link below the image for the fullsize chart. I didnt want to display a massive image in the thread itself!

Fullsize Image Link: HERE

The thing I found most interesting was just often these lows are retested providing some seriously impressive OTE entries for some massive pip hauls.

And even if you missed the first entry at 1.3080, price slid all the way down to that 1.2930.

Retested the 2nd blue box low, around the 1.3020 level.

Missed that one? Another one coming right up!

Slid down to the 1.29 figure, consolidated for another while, headed right back up to that Mid Figure level (three blue boxes highlighted in the middle of the chart), then pushed higher again, to where? 1.3020, then fell off very nicely with multiple entries presenting themselves along the way.

A bearish market structure has been confirmed during each step of the way as well. It was very nearly broken at the start of the November…

Then the thing I noticed just recently after watching Part 6, with the massive move down on Wednesday after that impressive rally during the Asian session.

I, like many others had no idea how to capture that move, so using the same idea, you keep an eye out for that noted level of resistance, the lows of the consolidation period.

Then get down to the 15M/5M chart to time the entry. This one came in around 1.2872 with a grand total of about 5 pips draw down :slight_smile: (The high from 06:45 to the low formed at 07:00 - based on London Open moves)

Granted, ICT provided a better explanation than this during his newest pro traders club video with a more sound technical analysis than this (naturally, I’m still a newbie!!), but this was just what I had noticed last night when looking over my own charts…

Now the question is, what way will price move? We are definitely within a consolidation period now, especially in the EUR/USD after todays scalping session. I guess if we move down then a retest around the 1.2760 level could be in the works, otherwise upside resistance would look like 1.2830 (noted level + some consolidation in there too). Friday tomorrow, it might make a break for it to the upside :smiley:

One thing I do know is, the markets will always provide you with quite a few 2nd chances to capture big massive moves (as I think the above image suggests).

Another thing I’ll mention:

Quick glancing is a good way to do this I think. If you spend a lot of time trying to determine if an area is important or not, it probably isnt.

As PPFX said, these things should just jump out at you.

Also, confluences of other things are equally important when determining entry! Divergences etc… Dont blindly markup the chart and just assume price will obey all the levels you’ve setup :slight_smile:

And once again, a massive thank-you to ICT for all of his work presenting and revealing this material in such a simple way!

Comments and suggestions welcomed too! This was a quick annotation and any other things I’ve no doubt missed, please shout, it helps everyone to learn!

PS. Sorry for the length of these posts, I should probably just let the charts do the talking LOL

1773

My 2 cents. We could be in for a move down and after seeing ICT’s latest video I would anticipate a move down to the 1.2620’s before we continue higher towards first target 1.2900.

1.2620 is the sweet spot for the move higher from consolidation area (23rd of august - 5th of september), if we do not take out the stops below that area, would expect a meaningful bounce (+/- 300 pips) from there.

1774

Not sure what to make of this, but after seeing Rod’s post i took a look at correlated fx pair and ofund that usd/chf is inversely correlated to eur/usd so i went on my fx demo platform and pulled out USDX chart and stuck it next to usd/chf , i was slightly surprised as they look like a twin brothers. I looked for some divergences, but not sure if there are any good.

usdx smt2.jpg700×610 62.9 KB

usdx smt3.jpg700×610 58 KB

1775

Have a look at Post #3
http://forums.babypips.com/trade-journals/47785-desire-faith-persistence.html

1776

Nice one thanks for pointing me to the thread. Here i was thinking i was on to something!:smiley:

1777

Michael

Is there a methodology to assist predicting of Ranging or Z Days etc, using previous price action?

Are any days of the week more likely to be Z Days or Ranging Days?.

Does the size of the AR have some predictive value in this regard?

1778

I’ve always suspected that comparing the Fiber to the USDX was rather artificial, as the Index is comprised mostly of the Fiber. ie maybe there is a better alternative, such as the CHF as already explored with some success.

I was thinking that SMT divergences on gold may also be worth investigating.

ie Divs on EUR Gold to GBP Gold to USD Gold

Would need to create a new SMT Overlay chart for EURGold and GBPGold, using GBPUSD, EURUSD and XAUUSD

Anyone up to this. My MT4 skills somewhat limited

1779

Sound’s quiet interesting worth looking in to it.

In one of your early post’s you mentioned Chris Lori’s course about the mid big fig…/ Was it part of complete fx course? or separate one? also did you attend his work shop by any chance?

1780

Part 18 complete fx course

A friend attended the workshop and found it of value.

1781

Jonny, don’t you think after the consolidation in the late AR a ride to the 1.29 figure at LO could have been reasonable?

1782

Fiber - nice stop hunt

took out: yesterday’s high, 12780 figure, dR1, AR L3, AS L2

1783

interesting read.

FX Trading Volume Plunges In Disgust Over HFT Dominance | ZeroHedge

1784

Don’t be fooled by that! Remember the CHF is pegged to the EUR at 1.22 no matter what. All three of these pairs have to equal each other. EUR/CHF x EUR/USD = USD/CHF. If one of these relationships is fixed, which it is, the other two have to be exact mirrors in order for the math to keep them equal. Basically the EUR/CHF is the center of the scale - that doesn’t move. The other two pair are on opposite sides and must cancel each other out to make the whole equation equal to 1. This is why for now, looking at the USD/CHF is a complete waste of time as it is the exact mirror of the fiber and has to be.

The real opportunity here is that the Swiss bank will not be able to make this work forever - if enough people buy the chf it’ll pop these two apart and make a killing for the investor. Storos did this to the BOE and made many billions.

1785

You didn’t ask me but here’s my take. There is no problem with having a million investors all in going the same direction during the profit gaining phase. Everyone is happy with that until it is time to take profit. If the investment banks are in the distribution phase trying to cover their positions, they need someone else to take the other side of the trade. If they know there are too many investors going their way, they are worried there won’t be enough street money allowing them to get out. That’s why they run the stops before the move. It shakes all t he over leveraged and jittery people out, and people who put stops in above a high. Then they move, not completely alone because we are in at this point too:), but more alone than before and when they get to the bottom, there is enough street money selling at the low that they can cover their position, but only because they shook off everyone else first. There isn’t enough dumb street money to cover both the banks and the smart street money when it is time to get off. SO they shake off the “smart” street money first.

When a bank runs stops, it cost them to do this. It isn’t free. It’s worth it to spend this up front than deal with who can cover them when are ending the day though, so they do it at open. The expense is why they tend to only do it once a day for London and once for NY if at all and only for 10 pips, not 50 as that would be really expensive. Asia already ran the stops on Tuesday. All the street money was already long so it makes no sense for London to go farther up since they would have to deal with the profit taking of these people. So London just opened and tanked the whole market, this popped the SL orders of all the street longs and let London take profit with out all the unwanted house guests.

I’m very surprised Asia did this as they rarely ever run the fiber this way. An it looks like they are doing the exact same thing again now. I’ll be looking to short again tonight or in the morning.

1786

Maybe a good short at 12785 with a 30 pip stop. Still too early to call

1787

Actually SNB can keep the floor as long as they want… they have the printing press in their side.

What Soros did was the opposite trade… he sold the pound like crazy against marcs and francs, and the BoE couldn’t buy enough pounds to hold its floor at the ERM…

1788

Maybe my comment is an indication that it is late in NY and I’d better go to bed before I say anything misleading.

1789

Fiber, Stophunt or short term buy model? Just took a long at 1.2762 thinking the latter. This is a flip flop from yesterday when I was expecting a leg lower but maybe we need a short term retrace first. TP 1.2820 as a first. Institutional level + interim high from tuesday.

1790

I was going for a short term SELL program :slight_smile:

Consolidation, move up, now a retracement (preferably to 1.2750 sweet spot OTE), than all the way up to the 1.2820 region, a little bit of consolidation for a nice sell, all the way down to 1.2680 by 14:55 gmt for the news event), also the average weekly range