Jerome's Journal

Support and Resistance

All trends start and end at support and resistance, all consolidations, retracements and reversals start at support and resistance. Setting price alerts can be useful in monitoring for price breakouts and for initiating trades. Support and resistance levels can also be used for setting price targets and estimating exit points. Looking for pairs with lots of pip potential and avoiding clusters and layers of support and resistance on your trade entries will improve your trading and increase the number of pips you capture week after week.

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For HTF Ranging Markets

Example:
For selling the AUD/CAD you can verify the sell using the AUD pairs, or the CAD pairs. If the AUD is weak across all pairs you can sell the AUD/CAD, or if the CAD is strong on all pairs, traders can also verify the sell this way. It is also possible to use both groups of pairs to verify the sell trade

In these circumstances, the total distance of prior move, or it’s distance
from Bands, is far more valid

Smooth oscillations on the larger time frames are excellent forex trend reversal patterns.

In a strong trending market, you can also have reversals. If a currency pair drops for many days in the direction of the major trend, then stalls and goes sideways, as a trader you have to think about a reversal. So if you missed the large move down start to look for the reversal back up.

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Individual currencies drive the market movements, not indicators, to match this you have to analyze individual currencies daily and get rid of all of the technical indicators that have failed forex traders for years. Don’t trade indicators trade currencies.

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Chart Patterns

vary in their success rate

but head and shoulders above all of them is the
Head and Shoulders pattern with a very impressive
84% success rate, and 79% when inverted

http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm

Free resource site with only one commercial product relating
to picking Stocks, not relevant to Forex traders and not
recommended in any way.

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Good thread here mate!
I like that we think alike…

Thanks Max, I’ve certainly had a few aha moments over the holidays

But this might also be a useful tool, a free spreadsheet that analyses
Trend strength for you, and then tells you what pairs to focus on

Then I compare Strong/Weak ranking, and if we get a match, look
for an entry signal

The spreadsheet is from a Free resource site. The only thing they
charge for is a currency strength indicator, which you can get FREE
from Dennis here, or OANDA, FX street, Myfxbook, Finviz,
Tradingview, and countless other free sites, so I’m not quite sure
why anyone would pay for a freely available resource.

Here is the free spreadsheet, if anyone wants it

Spreadsheet.xlsx (821.1 KB)

Out of courtesy I must mention it is provided free by earlyforexwarning

it looks like the screenshot below

On the left side, where you can quickly enter data with their drop down menu,
you can see trend strength in GBPCAD and NZDCAD

But how well are the individual currencies trending against all
the other currencies? Not really thought about that before

Is it over complicating matters?

this same site takes exactly the same approach to Strong/Weak
analysis

but it occured to me that they probably based this spreadsheet
on their quite sophisticated currency strength program

so why not convert it back again?

How do you do that? Not sure, but here is my cunning plan

On the left input columns, forget about trends ‘Up Down None’

but replace with question, is Base currency Dark Blue for Up,
Dark Red for Down, and Neutral for No Trend, do this on H4, D1 W1

This should provide a very similar result to their currency strength program.

You will see on the right, which currency is strong or weak against all the
other major currencies.

Finviz just compares currencies to $, Dennis I believe compares to Yen

Is there any real need to complicate matters further?

Probably not, Dennis and his colleagues are doing great, one making
45% profit first month

It may have some psychological benefit, if you believe your analysis
is ultra precise

For similar reasons I recently acquired a tool that gives the trend strength
on each TF as a %

So it should work like this

Trend strength W D H4 90% 86% 84%
S/W Analysis W D H4 Strong Up Strong Up Strong Up

I’ve won my first two out of two with this approach, on new year’s eve too.

the only extra factor is checking for sufficient space for price to move

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Having slept on the matter I have a new global insight

’Indicators are toys for boys’

I fear there may be more truth in that than many of us
care to admit

I don’t know how useful the above spreadsheet is,
admittedly it is more a tool than indicator, but it
still indicates where the strength is

However we do it, I want to see S/W disparity on
Weekly and Daily, there are plenty of sites that
are excellent for this. I don’t find precise %
amount is necessary, dark red or dark blue
tells me all I need to know. pale colours or
white tell me to keep away.

so at the moment Yen is the stand out
and there is trend strength on Yen pairs

However

that is not the green light to re enter!

I have indeed just re entered on NZDJPY and
I think the screenshot should tell you why

Now, we have very similar S/W and Trend strength readings on AUDJPY
but I won’t be re entering

For the same reason! A quick glance to far left will tell you why

Is it possibly that the Yen is so strong it will power past that
prior congestion zone?

yes, it is very possible, quite likely even

but if I am going to re enter a Yen pair, I would prefer
NZDJPY where there is still more space to move

Supposing NZDJPY loses and AUDJPY moves down another
200 pips?

Things like that happen in Forex, but I am very, very clear

I am doing the right thing

and it is only by sticking to the rules do you have the edge over time

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Of my eight New Years Eve trades five won well for RR 1:1 or better
One lost

Two are still current and doing well

I have re entered on NZDJPY and may re enter the Pullback
on USDJPY

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On Trend Strength

Obviously, when the Trend Strength % is too good, it
can indicate the trend is unsustainable

Sometimes I find H4 = 85% D1 = 80% but Weekly showing
either a low or even opposite directional reading

that may not be a problem, as very high readings indicate
the trend is well established, so a well established trend
on D1 may be new on W1

I look for a cross of MAs on weekly to support the high %
read out on the H4 and D1

as there is rarely a high reading on Weekly, so I would
miss most winning trades

but Weekly is valuable for determining WOS

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What about the Swing trades of last year? Below and Above bands?

They worked extremely well, until I got caught out on NZDCAD,
I’m still locked in that trade after months!

The big, big, downside, pointed out by a couple of the guys,
is that the Bands do move, and over time they can move
considerably

Repaint is not really the word, but recalculate in a most
unhelpful way.

I am not dispensing with that strategy, but if I’m not
using Stops, I need to rethink, to ensure I don’t
get locked into trades permantly

MY wins last couple of days may last about 7 hours

That feels about right

Four months Plus does not feel right, its not my kind
of trading, I want to be in and out within a few days

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I have just re entered USDJPY on H1, Pin Bar off MA

a good a reason to enter as any

but plenty of WOS on Weekly, about 435 pips to TP

We may not go the distance, I will keep an eye on
the current Yen strength

but we already had one good win on USDJPY

My only loser so far, USDCAD, had Neutral S/W rating

I was seduced by Trend Strength alone

Interesting

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goooood insight, and you’re definitely right about everything you stated. It’s much safer to trade after a breakout happens, rather than just trading within a consolidated area

How did you make out on that flash crash after the trading day turned today? Good lord. Yen pairs melted.

Flash crash?

what you mean like the 571 pip move in one hour on AUDJPY?

Who saw that coming!

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I want this over tonight!

There is so much volatility on Yen, especially AUDJPY

my three month DD is now down from 3,500.00 to 370.00

I don’t want it to return to that level again, I would like
a clean slate.

it could all be over soon

I just partially closed my worst NZDCAD position to
reduce liability in case it all goes mad again

DD down to 247.00

No interest in profit at this stage, moderate loss welcome
after last three months

Better put the coffee on, could be a long night!

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S/W Rating Strategy

Doing very well. All closed in profit except one pair
which had a neutral S/W rating

Won twice on USDJPY and NZDJPY,

Flash crash won me 434 pips in one hour on USDJPY

on Demo of course

This seems like a very reliable and simple system

Band System

I’m hoping this will be the last day for NZDCAD trade

Yen is flying, so I’m hedging my trade with AUDJPY off the scale
in S/R ratings!

Also further hedging both pairs that I’m trading.

Best guess, NZDCAD might consilidate again but AUDJPY might
hit TP by tomorrow for a nice profit

Of interest is the candle pattern on AUDJPY, Inside Doji bounces
off MA and forms a reversal pattern, confirmed by S/W ratings and
82% Trend strength

I think I can trade both these systems concurrently

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Jerome’s Last Stand

Both the pairs above ended up in a tight Triangle consolidation.
My three month Nemesis trade NZDCAD broke out to the upside
against me

I closed all positions for a 500.00 loss

Although 500.00 down on October balance is ok, AUDJPY has
broken out to upside also.

I am not trading the Triangle but will trade Breakout of the entire
Asian Session tight Consolidation.

Either side, TPs are very attainable. I may recoup some of the
last three month DD

On the H1, the way Yen has been behaving, it will not stay in
Consolidation.

Expecting some action from London Open

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Very true.

I use Finviz for my CSW analysis.

Finviz calculates % change of all the majors against the USD and provides the daily live rating. And it really doesn’t matter what currency is used as base currency, the rating will stay the same even if the % change will differ ( I used Trading view and made use of other currencies as base to verify this theory) and have so far built a strategy around it.

I am still a firm follower of Dennis’s thread.

And I also don’t use indicators at all.

It’s weird, I didnt get a notifaiction for your reply hence my late reply.