Kiss principle trading

KISS PRINCIPLE REBORN!

TRADING RULES: A 3-TIER STRATEGY
(1) Only trading one instrument (currently AUD/USD)
(2) Use the “Top -> Down” approach (Day -> 2H -> 30M)
(3) Enter a Trade when all 3 time frames are offering a signal
(4) Stay on the trade until there is another signal to reverse position also with all 3 time frames offering a signal
(5) Trail our stop to the newest higher low (if Long) AFTER a new higher high has been confirmed. Viceversa if Short
(6) Invest only 2.5% of bank at all times, increasing the monetary value of each trade as the bank increases
(7) LESS is MORE!

TIMEFRAMES:
(1) Day Chart indicates overall Trend Direction and what stage of a Swing we are in (Down Swing, Up Swing or Retracement)
(2) 2H-4H Chart is used to find an entry after confirmation of signals at this level
(3) 30M-1H Chart only used to fine tune an entry, to find a “cheaper earlier signal” which conforms with the direction set at (1) and with the signals already showing at (2)
(4) Never enter a trade triggered purely by a 30m-1h chart. These timeframes are only to find cheaper entries

TECHNICALS:
(1) Japanese Candlestick: A must have in all timeframes to confirm a High/Low or a Bear/Bull signal has been formed. No candle confirmation, no trade!
(2) Crown Reversal or Gartley Reversal (the basis for my whole trading strategy!) :grinning:
(3) Fib retracement in the direction of the prevailing trend
(4) RSI Divergence: Only generates an “intention to trade” and it must be in the DAY Chart. The RSI Divergences in lower timeframes (4H-30M) are only “extra” signals to add to the 3-tier strategy (Day -> 2H - > 30M)
(5) Trend Lines: Only used as an “early indication” for a possible beginning of a Crown/Gartley

The 3-Tier Strategy works from top - down and it implies that the stronger signals are at the top tier (Day Chart) whilst the weakest signals are at bottom tier (30M-1H). By this definition, and as stated above, we never start our technical analysis at a 30M chart and decide to enter, even if we can clearly see a “Gartley”. This has been one of my weakness in the past, trying to enter more and more trades at the risk of “efficiency”.

Finally, I see no need to trade multiple instruments any more. If I can afford to enter say 10 trades with difference currencies then all it means is that I can enter ONE SAFE TRADE in the instrument that I know very well, at 10x the bank of 1 single of those trades!

The AUD/USD has been working fine for me, I resumed my trading at beginning of July 2021 (after a 2-month break) and had about 7 trades including one currently active (4:1, 1:1, 5:1, 1.5:1 and 2 losses in between -2). So I believe that FOCUS and SIMPLICITY is the key for consistent profits in the market.

Let the pips be with us all! :slight_smile:

PS Stay tune for my new YouTube channel. It takes a video to be able to walk through most of the technical concepts I use to enter my trades and I thought that a youtube channel could help. However, I got to say, I am not a young bloke that knows how to use all these apps, online tools… even though I come from an IT background!, yet I was never a “tech” but rather was a Manager…hence I do not know the tech stuff as much!! Besides, this was over a decade ago!!

AUD LONG
After hitting the 1618 for a quick Morning Star signal on the intraday chart, we are now heading north
Keeping in mind that the Day Charts have shown signs of RSI divergence now for the 3rd time.
I expect this to be the beginning of the next long term up trend…wait and see

TECHNICALS:
Now that I have more time, here are the Day Chart technicals the prompted the LONG trade and reason why I believe this will be the MAY REVERSAL OF THE PAST 5-MTH DOWN TREND…

So, unlike the quick SHORT trade we had above from which we had to get out at the 1618 extension of the 2h-30M bear crown, THIS LONG TRADE has all the forms of a MAIN BULL REVERSAL, because of the fact that AUD/USD has reached a key group of convergences in the Day chart:

(a) This is the 3rd RSI DIVERGENCE
(b) It is bouncing of the 161.8% Extension of the “Pink” Major Bear Crown / Gartley, hope you can see it in pink dotted lines. I have marked the “Right Tip” of this bear crown
© It has formed a beautiful HAMMER candle a few days ago, and a second one yesterday
(d) It is in the process of breaking the main long term Down Trend Line (LTDTL). After today or in the next day or so, when a Bull Day Candle has opened and closed on the north side of this LTDTL, we will then know for sure that this is a major reversal that should last for a few months.

THE TRADING PLAN:
My trading plan is to “add to my initial trade” in a pyramid style (like Gann used to do), whilst moving my stop to the newest highest LOW after a new higher HIGH is created. At the same time, the new trades will be divided into 2-lots, one will have the 1618 TP whilst the other half will have an open TP waiting for us to be STOPPED OUT when a 2h LOW is broken.

NOTE: Although we are favouring going LONG, this doesn’t mean that we won’t SHORT the “DAY Retracements”. Let me explain:

THE DAY CHART is telling us we will be in a LONG TERM UP TREND
But we do not just trade the DAY CHART, we trade the 2H CHARTS.
During this upcoming DAY UP TREND, there will be RALLIES and RETRACEMENTS (to a FIB level). We will FAVOUR ALWAYS the LONG TRADES, meaning that if at any point I get contradicting signals in the INTRADAY CHARTS, I will choose LONG.

ALSO, meaning that whenever I enter LONG (like now), I will use the TRAILING STOP to the NEXT NEW HIGHER LOW, ONCE THE LAST HIGH IS TAKEN OUT. Whilst, when I am SHORT, I will HAVE A TP = 161.8% FIB.

It is much easier to explain all of this in a video, so I hope to create YOUTUBE VIDEOS for the upcoming trades, in my channel FX TITAN, unfortunately I don’t think I can yet add a video link here… but I will keep trying…

happy trading!

AUD/USD LONG: STILL TIME FOR AN EVEN CHEAPER ENTRY…
Provided my Tech Analysis is correct, and the AUD/USD is indeed going for a full Bull Reversal…then there is still chance for an even cheaper entry using the Intraday Chart (2H to be précised)

The AUDUSD is forming what appears to be a “Bull Crown/Gartley” as denoted by the blue dash lines. I have marked the possible entry…but as usual, this entry will ONLY be verified IF we find a BULL CANDLE SET UP at or about one of the key Fibs (62% or 79%)

AUD/USD BULL CROWN…
It appears that my forecast may have been correct.
The AUD went down to the Fib 79 and formed a Harami (2H) and Hammer (4H) PLUS what it looks like a Morning Star as well…

So, this was a much better timing for our LONG ENTRY. Which I added to…

Now let’s hope it is enough to trigger the BULL REVERSAL and move north. If so, then stay tune for further LONG Trades a long this ride…

Happy trading!
:slight_smile:

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AUD: UP or DOWN?
What I love from trading is the ongoing challenges. As soon as you think you got it right, the market humbles you by saying “you may not”…

When looking from another angle, the DAY CHART is still in the DownTrend, we haven’t taken out this long term down trend as yet. Although it has shown 2 previous divergences points, and now with a hammer a few days back a 3rd divergence point, it is not out of the question that it could still go for the 162% extension of the recent downswing which is also around the area of the BIG BEAR CROWN extension also 162% fib! All around the 7230 mark…

We could also see a “Bear Crown” in the Intraday (marked in pink 1-5)…BUT, this is a bit of a stretch since there has been a Inner Down Trend Line broken recently, indicating that we should be looking for a “Bull Crown”…If we were to “mistakenly” not see this, which is not as clear in the 4H chart, then we could “see” only the BEAR CROWN

All in all, I am staying put, I entered my trade now and I do not see a post signal (that is a signal that happened after my last analysis of a possible Bull Crown/Gartley, that indicates to me that I am wrong. And even if I am wrong, I will then be re-entering at the 162% bounce with a Entry Order to target this bottom…

Anyway, wait and see… I just thought I share my thoughts…

AUD…UP…
Ok so following my most recent post, the AUD went to the 78.6% Fib to form its “Right Tip” of the Bull Crown I have been talking a couple of posts ago, which provided an even cheaper entry to our Long Trade.
I took this opportunity to add to my trade. Although it is BEST & SAFEST PRACTICE to place our STOP LOSS AT THE LAST LOW (OR HIGH) of the Swing we are trading, I wanted to take a bigger risk on this last addition to allow me to buy more lots…

Anyway, not only we formed a nice Engulfing/Morning Star on the Intraday charts at the 78.6% but the Daily Chart Candle of yesterday ended up being a HAMMER! I love Hammers! more often than not they get tested, giving us chances for cheaper entries as well…

In addition, the Day chart current candle is “outside” the Down Trend Line…which gives me even more confirmation

Hi there, as promised I will start my new series of videos. I do not know if the link will work or not but if it does, then stay tuned because I will be posting 2 types of videos:
(1) My Trading Method
(2) My Trades!

Remember to SUBSCRIBE to my channel coz in some cases I may publish a trade video “LIVE” in youtube first before I can attached the link in a new posts.

DON’T MISS OUT!

Love trading!

FXTT Trading Lesson 00 -Introduction

TRADE EXCERCISE: 21 JUL 21: AUD LONG

Enjoy…
PS Please remember I am 50yo! and I am not a celebrity used to videos or a young one used to online social media! LOL

PART 1:

PART 2:

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JUL 30, 2021: PYRAMID TRADE: ADDING TO OUR LONG AUD/USD
As per my video…subscribe! After tomorrow I will be able to load youtube videos LIVE…

As usual the market is giving the listeners/fans a better chance for a better price with a “Bull TTR79” in the 30M chart…

:grinning:

AUD/USD 4H CHART FIB62 BOUNCE COMING UP?

The “30M Crown” that I was expecting is not forming. I got to admit I rushed into Pyramiding into my trade using the F382 and Candles at the 2H. We can see “clearer now” in the 4H Chart that AUD/USD “may be heading towards the Fib 62%” for the better pyramid entry…This entry will only be confirmed once a 4H Bull Candle Pattern is completed (“if”)…
Wait and see…

FIB 79 INSTEAD:
Ok, so we didn’t get the Fib 62% but we got the Fib 79%. I am pretty happy with this, I can say that we have a confirmed Bull Candle at the Fib 79% as marked in the green circle…

I have already entered all my trade size so I have to sit tight and wait for the next Swing…
But if you haven’t yet, well, you will get the best seat in the house!

Remember to subscribe to my channel, in the future I will be posting LIVE REAL TIME videos using my DEMO account, whenever I can in my channel… then I will update my posts here so it won’t hurt to be first in line!

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMk0i8gOgu8Q0_moU5DBETA

AUD TRADE ON VIDEO:

NOTE: there was also a nice Bull TTR at the 30m chart! Now, the market is sitting around the 127% extension of this bull TTR/Crown which means that it could still go to the 162% before it retraces and gives us yet another trade which we could use to enter (30min chart) and exit at a fib extension to start cashing in some profits…

Wait and see…patience is a virtue specially in this game!

Why did you settle on AUD/USD? All the best with your channel Tito :slight_smile:

FOCUS: Main Cornerstone of my “Keep It Simple Silly” method I have been applying for many years. Whenever I moved away from it, I bled profits… Early on I focused on GBP/JPY and it worked until the Brexit Change its behaviour. Then I moved away from this principle to multiple instruments, which cost me. So I re-focus back to what works best…

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FOCUS:

“I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.”… Bruce Lee

:slight_smile:

AUD LONG TRADE UPDATE TUE 3 AUG 21:
Glad to say that our recent Long Trade is moving our favour.
For the purpose of the Demo version of this trade, I have placed a TP at the 162% FIB which gives about 115 pips on a 30pips risk.
Currently the trade is at +50pips with no signs of turning back…yet…

AUD … Yet Another Long Entry in the 2H/4H Charts

I am still bullish despite the slow up-hill battle we are facing

The aussie dropped to a 786 and formed a hammer plus engulfing candle as marked by the “B” arrow. In addition, this is an official GARTLEY 222 or a conjunction of 786 retracement + 127 extension!

AUD LONG: “A LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL”?
The Gartley 222 didn’t pan out. However we still have some hope that my BULLISH bias MIGHT still be alive.

The AUD has hit a 786% fib retracement from the last Day Swing Low to the latest Day Swing High, which give me some hope that my initial assessment is (at least for now) still valid.

I am also looking to have a quick 30min trade if the “Bull Crown” showing in the 30M forms…Given that we are also forming a Bull Engulfing candle at 16:30hrs in the 4H chart

Wait and see

FORECAST: AUD/USD LONG TRADE: 1H-2H CHARTS

Consistent with my Bullish Bias on AUDUSD, a possible trade coming up…
Of course, the market may turn around at the 38.2% (Fib that I am not comfortable trading anymore) or 50% but based on some “very rustic model I have been creating and which to improve in the future”, I have a projected 61.8% bounce… time wise… I haven’t work that one out yet!

Lets’ see

FRIDAY 13 AUG 2021: LONG AUD/USD TRADE 2H-30M CHARTS
The 61.8% projected trade didn’t pan out. But we have a 79% Fib trade in the 2H chart with 2H Chart Bull Candle Signals plus a 30M Bull Crown to boot

Let’s see where this one takes us to…
In this video we enter the trade in REAL TIME, and you will see where the stop loss and TPs are placed…enjoy!

CURRENCIES ANALYSIS WEEK COMMENCING MON 16TH AUG 2021
Some friends have been asking me to “expand” my analysis to other currencies since my strategy can be applied to any instrument…So here it is…