TUESDAY 5/3/19 UPDATE:
We are still waiting for most of our set ups. Two of our forecast plans didn’t play out and we didn’t have entry points. Two of our three open trades are now free-rolling and the last one is going against us at the moment but we still have hope.
AUD/USD: Didn’t form any of the patterns we were looking for and now we are on waiting mode.
COCOA: Still waiting for a Long Entry opportunity on the Daily Chart.
COFFEE: Our long trade is playing against us at the moment but it hasn’t stopped us out yet. We have a chance for a Right Tip of a Bear Crown to form at current 786 levels but I do not have high level of confidence. It is a wait and see scenario,
COPPER: Currently at Break Even and half way towards our TP. Also, a wait and see scenario.
CRUDE OIL: This is one of those MANY times when I question my TP choices. I already compromised (as explained before) my 162% Fib Extension and am taking the 127% extension in all my trades. However, there are many trades where the market choses to hit the Low or High of the Fib Swing and turn around. Like it did on our 618% EUR/CAD trade causing us a loss before giving us a nice profit from the 786 trade.
In the case of this Oil short trade, we would’ve picked up 3:1 had we placed our profit at the Swing Low, or about 180+pips for a 50pips risk.Yet we are going for 300pips or a 5/1 prize. Similarly, with the EUR/CAD trades we would have had two winning trades from both the 62% and the 79% instead of one lost and one nice win.
Luckily, it is early on the year, and I will keep consistent on my TP (127%) whilst keeping an eye on the market’s behaviour and how much profits I am missing out on trades that only hit the “H” or “L” of the fib swing versus the loss in opportunity when hitting the 127% extension.
To make changes to a method, we need to have a “scientific” approach. We need to gather data, and unfortunately when we don’t have an auto-system that can provide us with data, we must keep the course, collect it, then review it.
I usually need at least 100 samples. So this might take me the rest of the year! Unless I can back test manually.
So far, based on 4 completed trades (since reporting) where we could’ve had caught the fib swing high/low ONLY versus going for the 127 (as we did) the difference in Win Dividend or Units are 0.5 units in favour of the 127 approach…
I have exactly the same feelings and same situations that had happened to me for the past 15 years in professional punting. When I back my horses I have the rule of backing only horses paying between $2 and up to $13. A few times, my “pre-selection” ended up winning at say $21 or $17 which made them a NOT QUALIFIER. I felt “oh man, I had that horse in my list!” Then I go back ten years of data including most recent results, and overall those horses LOST in the long run. This reinforces my believe to STICK TO MY RULES STICK TO MY GUNS.
So I do…
Let’s wait and see…