Kiss principle trading

08/03/19 T48 EUR/CAD LONG TRADE ENTRY

As shown. I am trading this 618 harami but due to the Daily Chart not showing signs of turning BULL I am only going for 1.5x

This 618 looks to me like the “A” point of a bear Gartley in the Intraday charts. And I believe we should go “officially” Long at the 127/786 intersection “B”

AUD/USD SET UP DAY & 2H CHARTS

I see the AU heading towards the 62% of the daily fib swing shown. For this to happen, I would like to see a Bear Gartley in the 2h Chart to go LONG on the “D” Point.

Wait and see…

PS: Again, the 2h is showing a 3-point divergence to go long now, but as I said, now they may work but in the longer run is like backing horses that pay higher than $13…

T48 EUR/CAD STOPPED OUT: -1unit
As I was concerned, we got a spike down and got stopped out by a few pips.
Never mind, will keep waiting for a long entry at the 786 area.

T47 CRUDE OIL SHORT TRADE: HIT TP1 (170p) NOW AT B/E

Although it hit my TP1 I hadn’t “split” my trades so it automatically catches my 1unit profit…bummer! I have done this with the Gold and I am intending in continuing this approach. I couldnt get to the market last night (was at a party :frowning:) so I missed on closing half my trade.

However, we will move this trade to B/E as soon as the market opens. And hope not to miss out on nice paper profits on this commodity again! :frowning:

T44 GOLD CASH: TP1 Hit [+0.08unit] or Now at B/E

The 1/3 of our trade was hit at +14 pips that cost us 6pips or 2.33:1. However, since this was 1/3 of the total trade, this profit makes our trade at “B/E” pretty much since the open risk of the other 2 trades are less than the profits I took from TP1. :slight_smile:

T44 GOLD CASH: STOP LOSSES AT 1279.89
I was writing to move my S/L to B/E turning this +0.1unit trade into a full 1.1unit profit, however, I need to give this trade room to move. If I move the stops to b/e level, this means we could get stopped out if the market retraces to the 786% fib where the stops would be located. Since this trade is pretty much at b/e or +0.1unit as it is, I will leave it alone!

T47 CRUDE OIL AT B/E
For the second time we have our OIL trade at B/E.

T49 GBP/JPY LONG @ 618 DAY FIB

As per my Day Chart analysis on this cross of 3days ago, I had a bear target of around 143.90 area or the 618% fib of the most recent Daily Up Trend.
We were looking to enter long at this juncture so we did

We are looking at 2.5units profits but as usual upon 1:1 move we will b/e this trade.
We then are looking at enter short on the 4H chart.

The candle that trigger this long trade is at the 4h and 2h “Hammers” formed
Plus the RSI oversold on these timeframes

Wait and see…

NOTE ON THIS T49 G/J LONG H4 TRADE:
Whilst the signs are there, I noticed a similar situation as with the Gold long trade I took when it was hitting the T/L and a fib. The “DAY” chart was “Bearish” in the sense that we had a 3point Divergence in this timeframe which clearly signified a reversal of the up trend at the time. I forgot to consider this and I entered long on a H4 signal.

Whilst the situation is aparently similar, we didnt have a 3point Div signal on the day chart with the G/J this time, only an oversold rsi. However, still, I am slightly concern with this trade. But, since I am already in, I must stick to my analysis that led me to enter the trade in the first place.

We have the chance that g/j might go higher before turning around. So I have set up at 1:1 b/e as usual.

The weekly chart is definetely Bearish in the longer term, whilst the Daily chart is simply retracing the up trend or is actually reversing. But as it stands, it is in the “Buy Zone” nevertheless…

Wait and see…

T47 CRUDE OIL STOPPED OUT AT B/E

T50 CRUDE OIL SHORT 1H Chart

Sell @ 66.00

This time I have set up two TPs at their respective last low and 127

MY WEEK TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS:

Below is my LONG Term Analysis for the five instruments I trade:

AUD/USD: BEARISH
COCOA: BULLISH
COFFEE: BULLISH (Double Bottom) But not as confident as the other instruments
COPPER: BULLISH
CRUDE OIL: BEARISH
EUR/CAD: BULLISH (at the bottom of a range)
G/J: UNCLEAR: WEEKLY (BEARISH), DAILY (BULLISH)
GOLD: BEARISH

You may find contradictions on my “view” versus my trades. I have made my goal to “improve” this in the near future. For instance, I am Long on Gold yet I am “BEARISH” in my sentiment (long term analysis). Reason being that I am trading long the “A->D” Leg of a Bearish Gartley.

I am planning to align my “longer term view with my position trading style” as much as possible in the upcoming weeks AND as such have “less number of trades” BUT increase my risk % per trade. I am aiming at investing 5% per trade when this happens.

This is my “plan” but “nothing is set in concrete”. I want to test this new approach to allow me to spend “less time in front of the computer” gaining more freedom.

And also, because I have came to “believe” that the larger wins will come from this more strict approach.

As an example, I wouldn’t be entering a Long trade in Gold to trade A-D but only wait to go short at “D”.

Another example is that I wouldn’t be trading Coffee Long, since I am not as verse or as confident with trading Double Bottoms/Tops.

Wait and see…

T51 COPPER SHORT 4h @ 288.20

still only at 2.5% risk, trading the secondary short term down trend fib50% and bear engulfing

SUMMARY RESULTS TO DATE Mon 11/3/19: +3 units (+7.5%) (+258 pips)
T# Product Units Pips
T33 eur/cad 0 0
T34 copper 1 25
T35 aud/usd -1 (11)
T36 crude oil -1 (50)
T37 gold -1 (7)
T38 gbp/jpy 1 100
T39 coffee -1 (26)
T40 eur/cad 3.1 135
T41 aud/usd 1 20
T42 crude oil 0 b/e
T43 aud/usd -1 (16)
T44 gold cash 0.1 14 open
T45 cocoa 1 27
T46 aud/usd 1.3 22
T47 crude oil 0 0
T48 eur/cad -1 (30)
T49 gbp/jpy 2.5 150
T50 crude oil -1 (40)
T51 copper -1 (55)

T44 Gold Cash Long is still open and Freerolling with already locked in 0.1unit
Absolutely not happy with the last two trades. After two break evens on Crude Oil leaving behind 2.5x & 2x at minimum in paper profits, we ended up losing on the 3rd attempt. With Copper, on the other hand, I simply didn’t stick to my Day Chart Analysis where I was “waiting to buy the 618”, instead I got “greedy” trying to catch the possible run down to this juncture… A very SILLY thing to have done specially after a nice Day Hammer!

Happy Trading! :slight_smile:

Remember 1unit = 2.5% risk so 3 x 2.5% = 7.5% profits on bank. I guess is not bad but I would like to see this going up …

T52 GOLD LONG TRADE @ 1294 (0.5 unit risk)

We are adding to our freeroll Gold trade (T44) after a Bull Gartley formed in the 2H-1H charts at the 50 fib plus engulfing candle.

T52 Gold Long at Full Unit
We added another 0.5unit to this trade.

T44 Gold Long Now Risk Free
T52 Gold Long Now back at 0.5unit risk (stops moved)

T44 Gold Long Now at +1.15units
T52 Gold Long Now at +0.3units

happy trading :slight_smile:

PERHAPS bad habits are good! 400 pips or so on this trade I picked up “but chose NOT to trade”… :frowning:
LOL

Gold Trades
T44 Gold Long Now at +1.85units
T52 Gold Long Now at +1.80units
T54 Gold Long Now at -0.5units open risk

happy trading :slight_smile: