Gold Trades Update 14/3/19: + 4.55 units
T44 Gold Long Trail Stop Hit @ +1.45 units
T52 Gold Long Trail Stop Hit @ +3.40 units
T54 Gold Long Stop Hit @ -0.30 units
happy trading 
T55 Gold 30m Chart Long @ 1,302
As shown. Unfortunately I was a bit too conservative on my stop trailing since I am expecting Gold to hit near the 1322 area. So to find out if I am right or not, I have entered a 30m trade at 0.8units
NOTE: I only re-entered at 0.8unit risk to âtestâ if we supposed to still stay long. The Gold is forming an Bear Engulfing candle âat the momentâ in the daily chart. If I am wrong, my trade will get stopped out, the short term trend line will be broken and by the time the day candle closes we will have a possible âDâ point or âRight TIpâ of the Day Bear Gartley I have been waiting for.
Although, I would much prefer for this âD/Right Tipâ point to be at the 61.8% (same level as the Left Tip) there is no way I would miss trading this short opportunity!
T56 AU 2h Chart Long @ 0.7065
As shown.
I am bearish on the AU, however, while I wait for the main SHORT opportunity I am trying to ride this secondary rally on the 2H chart.
WHAT WENT WRONG HERE?
When looking back, I can see that the AU H2 showed a RSI Divergence, the second last hight was not taken with significant, hence this long trade had littler chance to succeed
T60 COPPER LONG TRADE
I recommend to wait for the 4H Candle to form a âHaramiâ before entering. I canât wait another 2hrs since it is way past midnight here down under.
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POSSIBLE UPCOMING TRADES:_
Tomorrow, when the Day candles have closed, and if these were Bear Engulfing candles formed, I will be entering short the following:
AUD/USD: SHORT (FIB 50%)
GOLD: SHORT (âDâ POINT OF BEAR GARTLEY)
TRADES RESULTS SUMMARY @ 14/3/19: +4.55UNITS +11.4%
T# Instrument units pips
33 eur/cad 0.00 0
34 copper 1.00 25
35 aud/usd (1.00) (11)
36 crude oil (1.00) (50)
37 gold (1.00) (7)
38 gbp/jpy 1.00 100
39 coffee (1.00) (26)
40 eur/cad 3.10 135
41 aud/usd 1.00 20
42 crude oil 0.00 b/e
43 aud/usd (1.00) (16)
44 gold 1.45 30
45 cocoa 1.00 27
46 aud/usd 1.30 22
47 crude oil 0.00 0
48 eur/cad (1.00) (30)
49 gbp/jpy 2.70 150
50 crude oil (1.00) (40)
51 copper (1.00) (55)
52 gold 3.40 18
53 aud/usd (1.00) (20)
54 gold (0.40) (2)
55 gold (1.00) (3)
56 aud/usd (1.00) (15)
57 au200 OPEN SHORT
58 coffee OPEN LONG
59 gbp/jpy OPEN SHORT
60 copper OPEN LONG
61 gold OPEN SHORT
62 aud/usd OPEN SHORT
LONG TERM ANALYSIS AND CURRENT TRADES
After spending the whole weekend analysing all my products I have concluded with the following analysis and actions:
AU: SIDELINE
AU is at the bottom of a Monthly Range, which makes us âBullishâ in the long term. However, there is not set pattern yet to enter long. We will wait for âDâ point of a Daily Bull Gartley if it forms or a simple retracement to a Fib % after the long term down trend line is broken
T62 AU SHORT: To be closed out
AU200: REMOVE FROM TRADING LIST
T57 AU200 SHORT: To be closed out
COCOA: BULLISH
This is my stand out. We will looking for fib retracements to enter LONG and to PYRAMID up to 2,100 area.
COFFEE: BULLISH. BUY âDâ OF UPCOMING BULL GARTLEY (DAY CHART)
I believe Coffee is formed or is forming a Double Bottom at current levels. It has just broken the Day long term down trend line by having a Bull Day candle closing above it. It is NOT as strong signal, but I am already long. I will PYRAMID my trade (T58) on the âDâ point of the upcoming Bull Gartley and every retracement afterwards
I do not have a target, except a Weekly RSI 70% or Divergence. We will be trailing our stop using major swings lows.
If I am wrong, and it spikes down to stop us out then we might skip this one and invest on other products.
COPPER: BULLISH
It has just broke out of its monthly / weekly range, and I believe we have 300 pips of movement here since this was the range size.
I have adjusted my stops down to give Copper more room in case of a spike.
Once again, I will PYRAMID if possible using Day or 4H Chart Fib retracements where possible
CRUDE OIL: SIDELINE
Crude Oil is on the A -> D Leg of a Long Term Bear Gartley. In the past I wouldâve wanted to trade this leg using the 4h chart, however, as I previously mentioned, I am intending on âreducing my # of trades whilst increasing my stake per trade and to pyramid along the wayâ, for this to work I need to look at the long term ârange for profits availableâ. And the most profitable trade is to SHORT the âDâ point.
GJ SIDELINE T59 SHORT Let it Play Out then Staying Out
I will let my Short Trade play out and seek to exit on a Daily Bear Sign or weakness
GOLD: SIDELINE T61 Reduced Stake to 50%
I believe gold is within a long term flag that itâs reducing is range of movement as time passes, but this is in the long term. So keeping this in mind for the next months, we can still trade within the Daily/4H as discussed below.
I believe my gold trade has a 40% chance only of success. I believe the 50% fib + day bear engulfing set up is a âfalseâ âDâ point. I believe it should be in the 1,320 area. But I had not choice but to trade it just in case.
However, I will reduce my stake to 50% and seeing what happen. If stopped out, then I will wait for the right set up to Short
Happy Trading
T57 AU200 CASH SHORT TRADE CLOSED -0.2u
T62 AUD/USD SHORT TRADE CLOSED 0u
T63 COCOA LONG TRADE 5% risk @ 1660
We are now long on cocoa at 5% risk. As mentioned, on my above analysis, I am BULLISH on this commodity and will Pyramid adding to this trade using the Daily Chart.
Although I couldâve gotten a better price, I am changing my trading style from a âSwing Traderâ to âPosition Traderâ and wanted to free up my week. I am reducing my # of trades, so you guys seeking âthrill and actionâ wonât find my posts as appealing. However, those of you that want to "detach from the computer screen and, like me, want to have more FREE time to enjoy life, will find my posts still of interest.
I will be adding the pictures for the pyramid trades of course. I just entered this trade now so I have time for the rest of the week you can find a better price since Cocoa should test the 618. I am placing my stop at the Last Week Chart Swing Low, but again, if you wish to be more aggressive and buy more contracts, then place your stop below last weekâs high (1,616).
Happy Trading
SUMMARY OF OPEN TRADES:
COCOA: LONG @ 1,668
COFFEE: LONG @ 94.77
COPPER: LONG @ 288.55
GBP/JPY: SHORT @ 147.72
GOLD: SHORT @ 3,667
HAPPY TRADING
AUD/USD 4H-CHART LONG TRADE SET UP
Please refer to my recent post under âTrading the Gartley -ABCâ where I explained the bull gartley we just missed (a few days ago) with the AUD, plus the monthly BULLISH environment we have with this cross. The reason I was not willing to trade it yet was because it is in that âin-between-zonesâ however, I wouldnât mind having a small trade here while I wait for the main break the main bull signal âDAILY CHART BULL GARTLEYââŚbut this is a few weeks away perhapsâŚ
So, because I am personally not willing to stay up all night waiting for the Intraday Candle Signals anymore, reason why I am changing my style into a Position Trader (using Monthly->Weekly analysis and seeking Daily Chart entries), I have instead set up a Limit Order to buy the 62% Fib retracement. When doing this of course, and not waiting for a bull candle set up, one has to place the stop at the swing low.
happy trading
T64 AUD/USD LONG TRADE
As per my last post we are long in the AUD/USD
I am incline to be âBULLISHâ in the long term with this cross, given my Monthly Chart analysis. Therefore, I will set up multiple TPs and try to pyramid on this trade along the way
For now we have:
BOUGHT Avg @ 0.7085
S/L below last 4H bull candle (below the 786 fib)
TP: Various
Risk: 1/2 unit
TRADES UPDATES:
T59 gbp/jpy Short: Took profits +1.1u (+145pips)
T60 copper long: Itâs doing good at the moment and we should find out more soonâŚ
T61 Gold Short: Stopped out -0.5u (-18pips)
T64 aud/usd Long: This is our star so far, now at break even and full unit invested with no risk. It hit 127% and 162% fibs. I am staying on this trade with no automatic TP.
COFFEE LONG:
I am not happy with my coffee long trade. I jumped too early but it is too late to jump out now. We have about 0.7units of paper loss so there is no point when there is a slim chance that the Coffee will turn around. I am still BULLISH on Coffee however, the matter is of âtimingâ. If I get stopped out then I will have no choice but to wait for a Bull Gartley before re-entering to avoid âkeep getting it wrong a few times before I get it rightâ.
This is whatâs happening: After further review, I noticed that the Monthly and Weekly charts HAVE NOT FORMED AN RSI DIVERGENCE YET, but they are due to. Since this needs to happen, this means Coffee has to make a new lower low whilst RSI making a higher low BEFORE TURNING OUR WAY. There is however no way (for me at least) to know what is this LOWER LOW price level, but I am almost certain it will stopped us out by a few pips then turn around as it happens 
In any case, we are in it and it is not a profitable proposition to close at 0.7units loss when there is as much as 30% chance of surviving⌠and have a nice reward later on.
So wait and see
COCOA: I am certainly bullish on cocoa however my mistake was to put all my line at once (5%) or equivalent of 2 units, instead of adding once I got further candle confirmation. I am considering reducing my risk on this one back to the usual 2.5%
I am 60% confident that it will bounce off the 786 which shouldâve been our initial entry. PATIENCE PATIENCE PATIENCE is what I need to learn!