LONG TERM ANALYSIS AND CURRENT TRADES
After spending the whole weekend analysing all my products I have concluded with the following analysis and actions:
AU is at the bottom of a Monthly Range, which makes us “Bullish” in the long term. However, there is not set pattern yet to enter long. We will wait for “D” point of a Daily Bull Gartley if it forms or a simple retracement to a Fib % after the long term down trend line is broken
T62 AU SHORT: To be closed out
AU200: REMOVE FROM TRADING LIST
T57 AU200 SHORT: To be closed out
This is my stand out. We will looking for fib retracements to enter LONG and to PYRAMID up to 2,100 area.
COFFEE: BULLISH. BUY “D” OF UPCOMING BULL GARTLEY (DAY CHART)
I believe Coffee is formed or is forming a Double Bottom at current levels. It has just broken the Day long term down trend line by having a Bull Day candle closing above it. It is NOT as strong signal, but I am already long. I will PYRAMID my trade (T58) on the “D” point of the upcoming Bull Gartley and every retracement afterwards
I do not have a target, except a Weekly RSI 70% or Divergence. We will be trailing our stop using major swings lows.
If I am wrong, and it spikes down to stop us out then we might skip this one and invest on other products.
It has just broke out of its monthly / weekly range, and I believe we have 300 pips of movement here since this was the range size.
I have adjusted my stops down to give Copper more room in case of a spike.
Once again, I will PYRAMID if possible using Day or 4H Chart Fib retracements where possible
CRUDE OIL: SIDELINE
Crude Oil is on the A -> D Leg of a Long Term Bear Gartley. In the past I would’ve wanted to trade this leg using the 4h chart, however, as I previously mentioned, I am intending on “reducing my # of trades whilst increasing my stake per trade and to pyramid along the way”, for this to work I need to look at the long term “range for profits available”. And the most profitable trade is to SHORT the “D” point.
GJ SIDELINE T59 SHORT Let it Play Out then Staying Out
I will let my Short Trade play out and seek to exit on a Daily Bear Sign or weakness
GOLD: SIDELINE T61 Reduced Stake to 50%
I believe gold is within a long term flag that it’s reducing is range of movement as time passes, but this is in the long term. So keeping this in mind for the next months, we can still trade within the Daily/4H as discussed below.
I believe my gold trade has a 40% chance only of success. I believe the 50% fib + day bear engulfing set up is a “false” “D” point. I believe it should be in the 1,320 area. But I had not choice but to trade it just in case.
However, I will reduce my stake to 50% and seeing what happen. If stopped out, then I will wait for the right set up to Short