Kiss principle trading

[TitanTito]

OIL CASH: Too much juice to miss out on.
Whilst in the longer term I am waiting for Oil Cash Week Bear Gartley “D” point to form at the 79 level, there is too much juice between now prices and then to miss out on this A -> D leg. I dont recommend trading this leg in the shorter time frame Gartleys, but this is a Week Gartley so there is plenty of room.

So, we are at the look out for a 62% or 79% fib dip in the 4H chart + bull candle + rsi 30% (or close to it) to enter long with a target of around the 79.0 area

UPDATE: OIL 4H Chart LONG TRADE SET UP
Following my post here above, Oil is getting closer to retracing. There are signs of RSI divergence (not trade-able in the short side sir!), so I have drawn the fibs and marked a possible entry area. Of course, we still need to wait for a 4-Hr bull candle pattern at this juncture

happy trading

[TitanTito]

PLAN THEN EXECUTE THE PLAN!
T59 GBP/JPY SHORT TP SUPPOSED TO HAVE BEEN DAY RSI 30%
As per my post two days ago, I clearly stated in my screen shot: “Exit on Day RSI 30%”
Today I woke up sick and sleep deprived, I looked at my trades, I had Cocoa and Coffee in the red whilst AU and Copper and GJ were in the green. My Gold had already been stopped out at a minor loss.

So, being sick, I did what I have been working hard in avoiding “closed the GJ without reading my plan first”. The Daily Chart RSI is no where near the 30% and there was no Day Candle reason why to get out. LESSON LEARNED!

One suppose to close the losing trades first, and the winning trades let them ride…

As I said, lesson learned. Having said the above, one of the reasons I also decided to get out is because I am nor Bullish or Bearish on the G/J, and I was happy with cashing in some minor profits to cover my margin for the Cocoa and Coffee trades.

The good news however, is that AU (T64) and Copper (T60) are now at BREAK EVEN, No Risk situation and with some upside chances.

The AU is still in “between” zones, becasue it hasnt quite cleared the most recent down trend line and it is finding resistance at the 786% fib…wait and see…

[TitanTito]

T65 AUD/USD 4H CHART LONG TRADE
As per attached analysis. There is chance of getting a better price as AU might test the 61.8% fib first…

happy trading

[TitanTito]

T66 COPPER 4H CHART LONG TRADE
In line with our Bullish opinion of the Copper, we have entered this 4h chart trade

Happy trading

[TitanTito]

T67 GBP/JPY 4H LONG TRADE

[TitanTito]

WEEK SUMMARY AND WEEK AHEAD

T58 COFFEE: OPEN (no confident at all)
T60 COPPER: 0u
T63 COCO: OPEN (still bullish)
T64 AU: OPEN (no confident, Day Evening Star at 79% downswing formed against)
T65 AU: OPEN (as above)
T66 COPPER: -1u (-78pips)
T67 G/J: -1u (-100 pips)

REVIEW:
Why in earth did I enter the AU & GJ trades? Neither of these were in my weekly plan!
Despite that I got it right with the first AU trade (it hit 127 and 162 fib ext), that is not to say I did well. So my main objective this week is TO STAY IN COURSE, IN LINE WITH MY WEEKLY ANALYSIS (to follow)

WEEK 25/3-29/3

AUD/USD: STAYING OUT UNLESS…
No clear direction for me. Yes we have a kind of daily chart down trend, but for me, it is not clear cut. I felt from the beginning that the Day/Week Hammer needed to be tested, before the down trend ends, but this is just a gut feeling based on past experiences. However, we are swimming in shark waters, so: STAYING OUT!
UNLESS…We have Gartley Intraday. At the moment, like I said, we had a Day Evening Star formed at the 79% fib level and Down Trend Line intersection. This puts us “bearish” however, because of my arguments above, I will need to see a Bear Gartley to take a short trade for a quick fib to fib pick up.

Wait and see…

COCOA: BULLISH. ENTERING LONG TRADES
The only mistake I made here was to rush my entry. However, I am still bullish on Cocoa for now. Of course, as it happened with Copper, we can change direction on a weeks notice! Still confident on this trade.
I will be looking at actively entering LONG until 2100 area and catch as much as I can from what I feel is a bull market for coco.
Wait and see.

COFFEE: STAYING OUT
Trying to catch the “End of a Trend” is an expensive exercise. Although we are still alive with our long trade, I have no confidence. The Day chart hasn’t formed any RSI Divergence to give us hope. So we are staying out until “The Right Tip of the Bull Crown or The point D of the Bull Gartley” is formed to go long. I won’t be seeking to short this commodity simply because we are too close (I believe) to the end of this down trend. I might be wrong, who knows for certain.

COPPER: BEARISH. ENTERING SHORT TRADES.
This is what I meant, I saw a “bull break out of a range bound copper” yet now I am bearish!. Going by the Weekly and Daily charts, Copper formed a nice double top and broke the recent up trend line. So I will be looking for a rally to short this commodity.

Using the 4-hr chart: Bear Candle Pattern + Fib 62/79 + RSI 70%

CRUDE OIL: STAYING OUT

GBP/JPY: STAYING OUT. TOO CHOPPY.
What I mean by “choppy” really is that I dont have a convergence of “direction” between the different Time Frames from Month -> Intraday 4hrly.
So I simply don’t like it. This is not to say that there aint opportunities for trades intraday but I just simply must stay out.

GOLD: STAYING OUT
Until the Right Tip of the Bear Crown or “D” Point of The Bear Gartley is formed at the 1320 area. Then we will be shorting this commodity. I will look to enter either on Week or Daily Bear Candle Pattern, NOT ON A 4HR CHART SIGNAL!

Gold is really in a long term FLAG pattern and its range is shrinking as time passes. So I got to keep an eye on this and not look for a “Long Term Pyramid” trading.

This is it for now folks…
Happy trading!

[TitanTito]

T64 & T65 AUD/USD Longs: Stopped Out (-1.1u)

[TitanTito]

T68 AUD/USD LONG TRADE
I was expecting a break of the recent up trend line to go short on a Bear Gartley, but the market has formed something else. This is still not as high a prob trade as I would like it simply because we still have the “Day Chart Evening Star” that had formed previously stopping us out. But we will wait and see…
If you are more conservative, I suggest to reduce your stake on this one…

[TitanTito]

USD/CAD TRADE SET UP: LONG

This pair is in a very clear uptrend in the daily chart, therefore I will be looking to enter LONG at a fib pullback 62% or 79% once a RSI and Bull Candle Pattern converge

[TitanTito]

T68 AUD/USD LONG TRADE: FREE-ROLLING
Our long aud/usd trade can now move into break even. The aussie is making higher highs in the 30m chart and has not taken out any low. RSI divergence has some relief as well ready for further moves up.

[TitanTito]

COPPER SHORT TRADE SET UP

As per my weekly analysis a day ago, we are waiting for Copper to rally up to a fib/RSI70/bear candle convergence to enter SHORT.
It is quite typical to have a pullback after such a fast move…

[TitanTito]

T63 COCOA LONG TRADE UPDATE:S/L @ 1,598

As per my analysis, I was and still am of course, confident with my BULLISH bias of Coco. I believe that after testing the 786 now it is ready to move forward. Of course after such a nice rally we should expect some pullback to a fib level in an intraday chart like 2-hrly where the RSI is entering o/bought levels and a couple of dojis formed. I shall enter LONG to scale in to my position at the area shown in pink with the usual technicals:
RSI 30 + Bull Candle Pattern + Fib 62/79

[TitanTito]

SUMMARY OF TRADES AND SET UPS:

T68 AUD/USD LONG: At break even.
T63 COCO LONG: OPEN
COCO LONG SET UP: Looking for “D” of Bull Gartley in the 4hr chart to trade the bull trend
COPPER SHORT SET UP: Waiting for the rally to a fib 62/79 to short 4hr chart
GOLD: Still Waiting for the “D” of the Day Chart Bear Gartley to SHORT
USD/CAD: Waiting for a 4hr “D” of Bull Gartley to jump in the Bull Wagon.

happy trading

[TitanTito]

_T68 AUD/USD LONG: Locked in profits: _
S/L @ 0.7108 +0.8u locked in

[TitanTito]

T68 AUD/USD S/L @ 0.7114 (+1 unit)

[TitanTito]

T68 Closed at 0.7120 (+32pips +1.3units)

I decided not to wait since we are looking at a 1h shooting star, 1h-30m rsi divergences showing up plus all of this at the 62% fib resistance of last downswing.
I am also seeing a potential re-entry at a bull gartley using the 4hr-2hr charts…

so lets take this profits and hop in the next little train

because the AUD/USD is in what I call “between zones” with no clear direction, I rather take each trades as it comes in-out quick for now…

[TitanTito]

T69 USD/CAD SHORT TRADE

NOTE: IT SHOULD READ “SELL @” IN THE GRAPH BELOW… (TYPO)
correction: this was T69…

[TitanTito]

T70 NZD/USD SHORT TRADE +2.5units (+27 pips)
Unfortunately I didn’t have the time to post this trade because I entered it at 5:00am after waking up to go to the loo… But it was worth it!
This is why I love “my basic Gartley version”! They show up in any timeframes. I was watching the NZD after I closed off my Long AUD/USD. I was wondering when will the AU turn around? Since these two pairs are sibblings… I saw the upcoming crown/gartley in the 30m NZD and was ready for it. But it was time to sleep and nothing had come up yet. So I let it to faith “if I wake up and is there I will trade it…”

Anyway, it not only hit the 127 but it sank like the titanic…

Sorry I didn’t post it, but as I said, it was at 5:00am while I was in the loo …yes…the loo… This is perhaps why I love trading so much, you can do it from anywhere anytime…

WHAT DID I MISSED WHILE HALF SLEEP THOUGH…

I had observed that the Right Tip of this GArtley/Crown that I was waiting for at the 30m chart was also a convergence of the 162% extension and the 79% retracement.
Which meant that my TP should’ve been at the 4hr chart fib extension 127% as shown this meant a 6:1 R:R!

I added up to 10 instruments to trade because I want to have more chances at finding “Gartleys or Crowns” using either the Daily or 4H charts. However, this has created a new problem “overload”. Yes I find more opportunities I am sure, but I also am more prone to make mistakes like this one… This analysis of a “advance gartley” was what prompt me to search for a 30m entry bear crown/gartley in the first place. It was not to use the 30m Fib 127 extension as TP!

Anyway, I am not complaining, I take a 2.5x any time over a losing trade!

[TitanTito]

27Mar19 - T71 Gold Short Trade
The trade we all have been waiting for…has arrived?!

Well, it is good enough for me to have our go at this Right Tip of the Bear Crown or “D” Point of our Bear Gartley we have been waiting for a while now.

The only “requirement” that I would’ve preferred to have that hasn’t been met is that the Daily RSI didn’t reach 70%. This would’ve given me a 99% Confidence level… But as per my strategy, I rather give this trade a go than miss out from here. If we are wrong we lose 1 unit if we are right we win 5u. And, if we are wrong, and it goes to the 786% fib then we lose -1unit but we will have perhaps a 6:1 R:R instead on the second try anyway, make it evens.! So why take the chance to miss out on 5 units when we have the technicals to give us high level of confidence?

SUN 31 MAR 2019 REVIEW:
This is the time when one can forget his rules and jump the gun. I have this Gold trade now at B/E. Good. However, despite of this, some times I decide to “cut my profits short” rather than “letting my profits run” for the simple reason that I do not want to end up losing my “paper profits” to ended up break even.
As it stands, Gold is giving me 2:1. However, my ANALYSED target is at the 127% fib extension area.

Currently what sign do I have that tells me that the market may turn around?
Only a Day Harami but located at the 78.6% fib of the recent up swing.

Is there any other reason why the turn may be “longer term”? No!.

Is there any tech reasons that tells me that the market may only make a temporary rally? YES, plenty.

Most of the time I never spent answering this questions, I jump the gun and take my profits only to see (most of the time) the market rallying temporarily then moving to make 5:1 as it was calculated for this day trade!

Other times, I was right and the 2:1 was the maximum profits available rather than break even.

So, since I want to be “discipline” to stop bleeding profits in the long run, I am staying put due to the following MORE compelling Short reasons:

1. Day RSI is not near 30% yet
2. The weekly chart is showing a nice Bear Engulfing candle just completed
3. Gold also appears to be heading towards s G222 Fib Intersection “Point D” (as I am mentioning in posts below). This is a 62% - 127% fib convergence or G222!

So There are 3 reasons in favour to staying put and hoping I dont get stopped out at b/e while the market rallies temporarily versus 2 weaker reasons to take profits

Since I am risking 2units (paper profits) to make 3more units, that gives me the right odds to stay put!

PS I hope I don’t throw it all off the window tomorrow!

This leads us to…
SUN 31/3/19 WEEK GOLD BULL G222 SET UP
As you can gather, we also can forsee an upcoming Bull G222 trade set up at the 1,260 fib convergences area I discuss above…I will update when and if that happens…to enter Long of course…

[TitanTito]

27MAR19 T72 COFFEE LONG TRADE