Hi Mick/CloudNine, Did you open trades on 2nd and 3rd Jul? If yes, what are the results? I opened in Demo and the results are not good. 2nd Jul I understand, it was NFP day and I should’ve avoided. But why are 3rd Jul results not good? Either I didn’t open the trades correctly or some other reason. Can you share your results please?
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| 02/07/20 | DEAL | EUR/GBP | DFB | -1 | 9011.5 | 9017.1 | £ | £-5.60 | DIAAAAD2P3UZEA8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/20 | DEAL | GBP/JPY | DFB | +1 | 13449.5 | 13419.5 | £ | £-30.00 | DIAAAAD2J4TPBAS |
| 02/07/20 | DEAL | EUR/USD | DFB | +1 | 11280.5 | 11260.5 | £ | £-20.00 | DIAAAAD2JWLRQAN |
| 02/07/20 | DEAL | GBP/USD | DFB | +1 | 12523.9 | 12479.9 | £ | £-44.00 | DIAAAAD2J5285AK |
Yes, it was one of the bad days supshin, but so far I have had more good days than bad ones. This is on DEMO of course and probably needs refinement as pointed out by Cloud.
| 03/07/20 | DEAL | GBP/JPY | DFB | -2 | 13388.8 | 13415.8 | £ | £-54.00 | DIAAAAD2RLJWLAG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/20 | DEAL | EUR/GBP | DFB | +2 | 9022.3 | 9009.2 | £ | £-26.20 | DIAAAAD2RWEFVAJ |
| 03/07/20 | DEAL | GBP/USD | DFB | -2 | 12450 | 12480 | £ | £-60.00 | DIAAAAD2RV |
And yes…the 3rd was another stinker. Keep the faith though, the darkest hour is just before the dawn. 
I think you should definitely have a look at these intra-day charts with a little bit of distance perspective. You might well see that most of the time they are all three doing very similar things on a similar time-scale. Meanwhile, EUR/GBP is doing the opposite of course…
This could be one of those occasions when what looks like diversification is actually concentration.
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I’m going to try it with the New York session as well. I’d just suggest using gbpusd & eurusd as they’d be sharing session times
Thank you, Mick. I will try next week. Hopefully it will work.
Hey everyone!
So I back tested this strategy over a 100 trades and mostly in a range or consolidation period, and it turns out really really bad. I purposely selected ranging/consolidating period to see its reliability during market uncertainties.
However, when I chose to use it in a trending market or even in a consolidation period with significant range, the stats suddenly turns to positive dramatically…!
I also tested it in various pairs such as GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, and EUR/GBP. All turned sour except for the EUR/GBP pair.
I’m on my 27th trade of 2nd period now (first period was from February 2015 and onwards).
BTW, I slightly modified the rules of this strategy according to my observation and preference:
- Entry is not after the breakout candle. Instead I wait for a retest and will open position closest to the broken range. This will help minimize the risk and maximize the profit.
- I consider the size of range of the 3 previous candle (before london open) and the breakout candle (after london open) when placing my stop loss. The larger the range the tighter my stop loss will be. Basically I restrict myself into a maximum of 40 pips stop loss. Thus, waiting for the retest do help in minimizing my risk.
- By doing number 1 & 2, I am able to target a 1:2 Risk Reward ratio.
- It helps to look at the higher time frame (H4 or D1) just to see where I am exactly whether nearing the support or resistance. This is to avoid buying at the resistance or selling at the support. Note that I skip trading several days where price is ranging at the identified SnR levels. This is where whipsaw (or stop-hunt or liquidity-grab) commonly happen.
Right now I’m testing it on two different approach:
- Keep the trades running until reaches my TP/SL
- Close the position everyday before market close.
So far both has returned the same profit factor. But let’s see after 70 more trades.
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You are definitely not wrong, like I said, everyone is different and have their own preference when it comes to trading decisions. When it comes down to an EA, I still feel like I’m lending money or someone to manage, rather, I’d like to make my own call and take responsibilities for it whether it wins or lose.
No wrong or right here, just personal preference.
If you are all about precision and numbers, EAs would be for you yes because it only does what you tell it to do. But that plays on the fact once again that it’s still a machine and does not have human instinc in certain situations of which, I personally find it helpful to have. For example some days it breaks out of the range only by a little bit, I didn’t find it safe enough so I did not trade it. That can be very difficult if not impossible to code into an EA as you’d need precise points.
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Hi Supshin, thanks for the comment.
I did not open trades on the 2nd - NFP as explained in one of my posts earlier.
On the 3rd I did open two trades with GBPJPY and GBPUSD - and yes, both of those lost as the market did not move in one direction, which happens.
EURUSD and EURGPB I did not open trades on as they moved a lot (big candles) prior to London opening. I have not looked but I think EURUSD would have lost and EURGBP would have been a no-trade as it ranged within the range and did not breakout clearly.
If you opened trades on the 2nd, I could not help you much there. On the 3rd, then yes, the strategy lost. No discussions or excuses there.
But if I had a 100% winning strategy I would not be giving it out for free and asking for feedback/suggestions 
would be selling it for $5 mil a pop hahaha
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Hi!
Thanks for sharing your interesting post. My time zone is UTC+7, so I’m only a few hours behind you, but I’m not native to this part of the world, so I’ve been trying to find my footing on the timing issue. Staying up 'til all hours of the night following the Americas session was killing me!
I did identify the Japanese afternoon (from 04:00-08:00 UTC), as well as the even better UK open on my own, and have been looking for entries in that time the past couple of months.
I have a couple of questions:
First, do you make any adjustments for London’s daylight savings time? In northern summer, there’s an hour of crossover between London and Japan. Once London goes back on standard time, that crossover goes away.
Second, while I do appreciate the bare bones simplicity of your approach, I also wondered while looking at your first samples posted here why you don’t wait for the pullback to both improve risk/reward and also reduce risk on a false breakout?
I just added a ton of simplicity last week, by reducing the number of securities I monitor and trade. I used to trade SPXUSD, XAUUSD, and GBPJPY using my forex broker. Now I only look at SPX, because I have a clearer picture of momentum on the US stock market. After I ditched the excess, I had my best week of the year so far.
At any rate, with the added focus, I’m all in on that London open & my goal is to improve upon what I did last week, and make those improvements consistent.
It is 09:05 UTC right now, and I’m waiting for the pullback in stocks, to buy. Your approach dovetails with my own momentum analysis (using Heikin Ashi candles), so that means I’m a buyer today, until the market tells me otherwise.
Cheers!
Hi, thanks for your comment.
In answering your questions:
1 - As I use Tradingview and the “sessions” indicator it provides, I did not even pay attention to this - hahaha. It does it for me so unfortauntely I can’t help you there. You can get Tradingview as well and use the same indicator if you haven’t already and check it out for yourself. Not just that but we have daylight savings here to in Queensland where I am from, so Tradingview is a big help there.
2 - As mentioned here plenty of times, I don’t like to sit and stare at the screen all the time, So I only check every hour from the London open to see if there is a breakout and close and I enter my trade. Once entered, I let it run until the next morning, I wake up and if it has not hit SL or TP, I close the trade whether it’s in profit or loss.
So to check for a breakout then check back to see if it pulls back, it’s just too much work. Also, you will find a lot of the time it doesn’t pull back and just shoot in the same direction. On certain days, my TP is hit within the next candle after the breakout.
That’s just me personally, as mentioned before as well, everyone can test out and make their own variations that suit themselves best.
I usually only trade the daily timeframe, which I only check my trade once a day in the morning before the market change over, enter my trade then forget about it until the next morning. This allows for me so much freedom and still make money that pay my bills from the market. I hate scalping and sitting and staring at the screen for hours and then could still potentiall lose a trade, which make it frustrating. To those who can do, I salute them 
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Firstly @Cloudninee regardless of how this strategy pans out I have to commend you both for your altruism in sharing this strategy and your dedication in replying to everyone’s question which have greatly assisted in my understanding of this.
Hah I think i’ve picked a dog of a day to start this on (Friday 3 July) but i’m going to persist and wanted to thank you for taking the time to share, every day is a school day in this game!
Thanks again
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Thank you Leditas for your kind comment. They are much appreciated.
All the best on your trading journey.
Very well said Led. My own sentiments exactly.
Cloud has told us many times that he’s not a professional but he’s
one helpful hombre and ever so patient with dummy traders.
Thank you Cloud
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I agree with you, Cloud. I will try this week and report the result in this forum. If you please put your results here it will help us. Thanks once again.
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Well written Topic! Very interesting read, I think I may try and incorporate a strategy similar to this for session opens, lots of back testing first to tweak it for myself though.
Thanks. 
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Hi Supshin,
As mentioned in last week’s post, I won’t be posting results on here for this week as I am on the go this week with work so I will not be trading much other than my own other DAILY timeframe strategy (because that’s easier to do, just check chart once a day).
Hopeful you will find success with it this week.
Hi ebpSloth, thanks for the comment.
That’s the main key of it, the strategy itself I think is meant to be tweaked and changed to suit the personality of the trader. If you take on something from another person and is not comfortable with it 100%, then I don’t think you will have a good chance to profit from it.
Best of luck to you on your trading journey
Pretty decent strategy, thanks for sharing.
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Hi Petezaa, thanks for the kind comment. Realy appreciated.