Mondeoman Crypto Trading Journal

Mondeoman · November 18, 2021, 3:01am

Just had to stick to my own plan today.

We were fortunate to be holding CRO since late 2020. Today it reached over 900 satoshi per CRO token, and we bought at an average price below 300 sats. So in keeping with our written trading strategy, we would have sold half when it doubled, and left the rest there at no cost to the portfolio. But it went up so fast we ended up selling one third of our holding today, leaving two thirds in CRO and buying ETH with the remainder instead of selling for USDT then buying ETH with USDT. We did this trade on Crypto.com just because that is where the holding was.

I have been using the MCO cash top up card now for just over a year. When I got the card, I said to my wife (joking at the time) that if CRO token were to do a 50X, then everything I bought on the card would be free of charge. The 50X didn’t happen but I do feel like Christmas has come early because the CRO credits from all the last year purchases now equate to about 6% of total spend, not 2%.

If CRO moons, we are still in there. If it tanks, then we have some “trading funds” currently parked as ETH to buy back in again.

Happy days.

Mondeoman · November 18, 2021, 5:37am

Second sh__coin identified and bought yesterday.

It has taken me more than four months to identify the second sh__coin of our portfolio. The first was identified and bought back in May 2021, and is still alive but worth half of what it was. I expect it to tank to zero, but you never know.

Just to recap what the sh__coin strategy is. It is to allocate between 5% and 10% of the total crypto portfolio to currencies that are defined in three categories. These are currencies that have a chance to do a:

10X
100X
1,000X

This particular token I have been watching for over a year, and it just doubled. I set a limit order to buy it at under 1,050 satoshis and the order was filled last night at 19:30 hrs.

The currency is the POWR Power Ledger token. This has nothing to do with either technical or fundamental analysis. It is one of those “gut feel” tokens because I happen to think that the future of decentralized energy distribution will come to us sooner rather than later and POWR has a good chance of being a key participant in the decentralized distribution of electricity as the developed world adopts this concept as competition to the big power companies.

There are two or three enablers that need to happen before this can really take off. The first is that a potential future decentralized supplier of electric power, and future potential customers need SMETS 2 meters installed (or equivalents outside the UK, referred to generally as SMART meters). The second is that there needs to be a sufficient number of providers in a neighbourhood to be able to sell their power to other neighbours. That means a full complement of solar panels on the property, a battery bank capable of holding sufficient energy to make it worthwhile to “sell the electricity to another user”, and probably an electric car or two on the driveway to enhance the effective capacity for sale. The third is that the national government needs to drive the utilisation of electric energy to be far more flexible than it is right now where the big power companies no longer offer a cheap rate supply at low demand times of day.

I am ever hopeful that we will see a fully decentralized electrical energy grid within a decade, and so expect that POWR may be included in the “100X category”. The plan is to sell half of the sh__coin investment if it doubles (that is the trading element) and hold on to the rest (representing a zero cost asset) for the longer term.

This is now 1% of the crypto portfolio. The first sh__coin only represents 0.15% and was bought with some dodgy Doge profits obtained in four days - a totally unexpected outcome.

POWR history is covered in this vid.

Mondeoman · November 19, 2021, 2:33am

A second contributor to the “income” part of the Crypto portfolio.

Another part of the 2021/22 crypto plan is an income component. The first pilot for income was for Chia farming started in July 2021, with a decision to turn it from a pilot to a small income stream mid September. The Chia farm is moving along as planned other than I have had some connectivity issues during November that has put me behind my target income. Never mind - this is a three year commitment and I have bought the hardware now. Just need to keep on top of managing the farm.

The second contributor to the crypto income stream was supposed to be a Helium hotspot or ten. I have delayed that one again because lead times on hardware still seem to be too long for my liking. Wished I had just bought some of the HNT tokens though - at the recent $50 peak they have been a 40X this year.

Onwards and upwards. There was a mention on the forum elsewhere about whether members would consider pay for play games. At the time I said definitely no. But I have changed my mind. With the help of a 24 year old (an insider), I have today managed to put my Harmony (ONE) tokens to good use and created a character to play the DeFi Kingdoms game on the Harmony network.

It’s a bit like going back 30 years to an Atari console playing pong on a TV screen. Hilarious really. But like a lot of things, until you actually bite the bullet and actually DO something, it may not be obvious what the power of these things is. Whatever it means, I have created currency pairs of the most common variety in this DeFi game, the ONE-JEWEL pair, and have bought seeds to harvest in the Garden. The headline APR interest rate is about 1,200%, and I will find out what that means in practice in a day or two when the pairs have been tied up long enough in the Garden to start to produce an interest in tokens that I can calculate the daily, weekly, monthly and annual interest rate. I expect it will add up to 1,200% per year, which means 12 times your stake.

What exactly will happen to the price of the ONE token, and the JEWEL token is anybody’s guess, but I am quite staggered by the locked in liquidity in this game. Here is the total liquidity of all locked pairs since 1Sep21.

Date Liquidity in USD equivalent
1Sep21 $3.5M
15Sep21 $15M
1Oct21 $33M
15Oct21 $109M
28Oct21 $202M
18Nov21 $203M

I bought the ONE tokens on Crypto.com by selling some CRO tokens that have tripled in value, and the ONE tokens have come down from $0.33 to $0.25 each in the last week. So I figured it was time to get stuck in with a few “weekend meals’ worth” and find out what earn per play is all about.

The Kingdom so far

The seed box

The harvest box - after about 3 hours

How it works:
Despite asking everyone I know worldwide, after I got some initial help from an insider who has been doing DeFi Kingdoms for six weeks, I still had to find the link below to a proper description of what DeFi Kingdoms is and what it is used for. Every Youtube video I watched just assumes you already have an account, or know somebody who does.

https://docs.defikingdoms.com/how-defi-kingdoms-works/decentralized-exchange

So how does this fit into the income part of the crypto portfolio? To be honest, I have not yet decided. Because, on the one hand, you have the ONE currency - the base currency of the Harmony ecosystem (network? - gosh, I can’t even find consistency in using words to describe layer 2 network providers - or are they more accurately called ecosystem providers?). And you have the Jewel currency which is specific to the DeFi Kingdoms game, just one of many Dapps running on the Harmony ecosystem. And it just happens to be a DeFi liquidity provider wrapped up in a screen interface that masquerades as a GameFi Dapp - and in Q1, 2022 there is a roadmap to release land, and by the way, I haven’t yet bought any of the NFT tokens that are Heroes in the game that can be used to generate more income. I have given up trying to put these tokens into a neat little box of description. Until I learn more, it’s going to be like this:

The JEWEL tokens shall be treated as part of the Crypto Income stream, and
the ONE tokens are going to be treated as sh__coin number 3. Though ONE is already in the top 100, it’s current value is $0.25 and its maximum number of tokens is set at 12.6 billion. This token is not in the 100X or 1,000X category, where its market cap would need to reach the current size of Bitcoin for a 100X. But it is certainly in the 10X category, and the price of the ONE token is a secondary consideration to the value of the JEWEL token on which the game is based, and the liquidity pair that dominates the locked in capital.

Mondeoman · November 19, 2021, 11:32pm

An update just before the 24 hours is up.

The seed box. In 21 hours the amount of Jewel has changed from 0.0118 to 0.3252, or 0.3134 Jewel in 21 hours. This equates to 0.358 per 24 hours. For an initial investment of $125, that is $2.97 in one day (2.4% per day). I am reliably informed that “auto compound reinvests for you every 7 minutes to turn 3% daily into 10M% APR”

Granted, 75% of the interest is locked in until next year, but 25% can be released, and that equates to 18% per month.
This is Epoch 13, and the rate of interest is declining quickly every Epoch until number 51. There is still a lot of time to make big inroads to my “crypto income” stream. Next move - get to grips with the econometrics of the NFT Heroes.

Conclusion:
This Game-Fi is worth a serious look. More later.

Falstaff · November 20, 2021, 4:43am

Yes I just paid £1250 for one on ebay - but the vendor has gone unreasonably quiet - (he has low feedback & I fear the worst ! - In the process of “opening a case”) My main practical problem is a tall wooded belt immediately behind the house - betwixt me and my main target area ! - I’m dubious as to whether 868 MHz will get through it properly - but we’ll see ! - I’m hoping a 5dBi aerial will do the trick - else I’ll have to talk someone else with a better line of sight to letting me use it on their property.

Mondeoman · November 21, 2021, 1:02am

Now there’s something I could do with our 20 let properties! Maybe make enough HNT to make BTL property a worthwhile venture again like the 1990s. Muhahahahahaha

Seriously, though I am not a practicing aerial installer, it did occur to me that I would most likely buy the chimney-mounted aerials for maximum coverage. In theory, I could signal between Wilmslow and Mossley (where my brother lives amongst the Mossley-ites). Looking at the UK map of hexagons, there’s not many hotspots yet, so it’s ripe for exploitation. If you get the chance to cancel your order and get your money back, take a look at the APR% right now on DeFi Kingdoms for locking LPs in via the Garden (liquidity pairs). It suspends belief.

Mondeoman · November 21, 2021, 1:08am

Another update. I did an 10X on our original seed investment, now a total of $1,444 invested including the original $125. Price of Jewel is aggressively increasing, not what I want right now because my cost of entry increased. However, the last 21 hours is shown below. On a 24 hour basis, that is an interest paid of almost 4 Jewel on an effective deposit of $1,444, or $38.45 per 24 hours (2.7%).

Thinking seriously of 10X’ing that again to $15K for a headline daily rate of $400 per day (£300 per day). Steady on here - that can’t last for too long…

tradecode · November 21, 2021, 2:04am

i dont know how your “jewel-one” liquidity mining works, but i am going to guess that you do not really have $148k on deposit.

what gives?

https://weihungchin.medium.com/defi-kingdoms-a-new-nft-game-with-defi-yield-farming-and-more-7bacc3bf4213

Mondeoman · November 21, 2021, 2:15am

You are correct. I have one hundredth of that amount on deposit. Headline daily interest for a $148K deposit would be about four thousand dollars per day!

The harvest rate in the snippet is 11.36 jewel per block. One block is created every two seconds (approximately) meaning that there are 43,200 x 11.36 jewel released every 24 hours. At $9.78 per Jewel, that is $4.8M per day. Note on the snippet that there is $148M total deposits on this liquidity pair so my “share” in $ terms is $1,444 / $148M or 9.75 per million of the total. So my share is $4.8M jewel per day times 9.75 divided by a million or $46.80. Not all of the jewel release is assigned to the LP provider (liquidity pair providers). The difference goes to pay overheads (to fund the development of the game) and “other costs”.

I do not yet fully understand it but suffice it to say that early adopters have grown accounts in the six figures in dollars from very little initial funding.

So here is my dilemma. My crypto sh__coin plan maxes out at $1,400 per “sh__coin opportunity”. But my crypto income plan could (in theory) be as much as $7K. The income will be exponential decay, understandably, but for the short term, it is a nice “game” to play.

tradecode · November 21, 2021, 2:33am

do you have a link to this?

thx.

Mondeoman · November 21, 2021, 2:36am

here is the link to the game
https://game.defikingdoms.com/#/gardens

and here is a link to a pretty decent description of what it is all about.

https://harmonyonegames.medium.com/introducing-defi-kingdoms-34580ba3629b

One of the devs is a school friend of my son.

Mondeoman · November 25, 2021, 10:42am

Link to a video that compares DeFi Kingdoms with Axie Infinity, and says that the potential Jewel future price is a 200X. On the other hand, a comparison with Uniswap says it could halve.

So my take on this one is that it fits into two of our crypto trading strategies at the same time. The ONE token is what I designated as the sh__coin, and the Jewel is the one I designated as the “income” token. Given that at constant token value, and current rate of interest, I would only need to hold the Jewel/One pair in the Garden for 42 days to make an entire year’s target income from Jewel, but in terms of unlocked tokens, it would require about 120 days. Even that is a ridiculously short period, so we are sticking with this plan for now.

Went a bit overboard on the DeFi Kingdoms allocation but not unhappy with the short term outcome.

Mondeoman · November 25, 2021, 10:49am

An update on the Sh__coin # 2 buy. It went up by 50% in 4 days so I prematurely sold out half of its quantity for another hot trade, and the other 1/2 is still there as a long term hold. However, if it reaches $0.95 I will sell another 1/2 of the holding.

Mondeoman · November 25, 2021, 10:56am

An update on the six “baseline crossing” buys. Yesterday I awoke early, dreaming of these that were bought just before the mid November market mini-crash. I had another hot trade I wanted to do and thought of selling these at a loss. Then I remembered I paid for them in BTC, not in fiat. On a BTC basis, the loss was far less because BTC had also tanked with these.

So I got out of bed, the earliest for some days in the middle of a bout of flu, and realized we were only down by a few percent. I set up limit sales in Bittrex about 1% above current market price, three of which were filled in the next hour, so then I manually closed the limit orders and sold as market orders. In $ terms, a 15.9% loss, but in BTC terms, a 1.8% loss. It felt a lot better than a 16% loss.

In the next hour, I watched the prices of BTC and ONE tokens on the crypto.com exchange, and bought the ONE tokens within the hour at about 0.5% in my favour. I then spent another hour watching the CRO and ONE prices move 1.8% in my favour and committed to buy more ONE tokens for my DeFi Kingdom liquidity pair. A good morning’s work with a better than expected outcome.

Mondeoman · December 2, 2021, 1:10am

Love NFTs.

So I decided to do a bit of a brush up on what exactly NFTs are, and how would one go about deciding whether or not one was worth buying, selling or “hiring out” in the cases where the game allowed this feature.

Here are the “beginner’s luck” results

On 27Nov21, I bought our first NFT, followed by four more until yesterday.
On 29Nov21, I earned the first “income” from one of the NFTs – a total of 20% of the cost of the NFT, or about $72.
On 30Nov21, I sold the first NFT for a 48% profit or about $230 on the purchase price 2 days earlier.

Now seeing if I can repeat the “beginner’s luck”. I have put all 5 up for hiring today. I’ll leave them all for hire for 2 or 3 days - the basis of hire is 1 day only, but then you can’t sell or hire them again until a cooling off period of 2 days. They use up one summoning life for each hiring, but NFTs with zero summoning capability can still be used to earn “stuff” in quests. The “stuff” has a real world value, and as far as I can work out it amounts to a few tens of cents per quest, with quest freqency of “about one every 9 hours”.

And before anyone asks - no, I won’t tell you which of the millions of NFTs available I have bought to trade. DYOR - here is a link to the first NFT Youtube video I watched.

Mondeoman · December 3, 2021, 7:55pm

An update on the sh__coin strategy.

Challenge for beginners. Can you determine from the screenshots below what is the trading strategy employed in this limit position?

Just placed a limit order to buy back the 1,000 POWR sold last week for a quick profit. Screen shot below - looking to take advantage of daily volatility to lock in at 1,000 satoshis.

And the trade was filled at 1,011 sats. After an hour I adjusted the limit price from 1,000 to 1,011 sats because a), it is not a good idea to set limits at round numbers (like 1,000) and b) because there were large order quantities at 1,000 and also at 1,010.

Now the trade plan goes something like this:

If price increases, sell half at double the price. If the price tanks, hold for at least a month without taking any action. At the end of every month the price of every sh__coin in the portfolio is analyzed. Any sh__coin that continues to perform badly (i.e., worth less than half as much as price purchased) sell it. But only one sh__coin per month and only the worst performer.

Short term. On a weekly basis, review the price. Depending on whether an additional sh__coin opportunity has been identified, and free cash is required to purchase the new opportunity consider ratio trading out of one or more and into the new opportunity.

Mondeoman · December 26, 2021, 7:35pm

A holiday update on the Mondeoman Crypto Trading Journal.

The investment in the DFK game has just returned 100% on the overall funds committed between 19-24Nov21. As a component of our portfolio it has grown from 10% to21% of our portfolio.

At the 100% return milestone, we took a decision to ladder into DFK ONE and JEWEL tokens again, knowing there are three aspects to this that point to a high likelihood that the investment will not calm down any time soon.

I am selling part of BTC and ETH holdings to fund this new area of interest. Most of the additional funds will go into expanding our NFT collection of Heroes, which themselves are income earners. A small remainder part will be used to fund our fourth sh__coin holding of 2021. We have just bought four small apartments in Tranquillity City. This is a new “game” on the Harmony (ONE) network. This will be the first “pre-launch” investment we have made in crypto. I wanted to buy (one per week) a total of two medium sized and two small apartments. I reviewed this prospect on 23Dec21 and we took the decision to buy the requisite “sh__coin” balance as a small % of the portfolio, one per week in the New Year. Once I had loaded up the wallet with a new tranche of ONE tokens, I was shocked to note that all the houses, large and medium apartments have already been sold, and only 655 small apartments remained out of the pre-launch maximum of 1,350. So I rapidly bought our share and put them away as our sh__coin #4. Details so far are very sketchy other than once the game is launched, apartment owners will be able to furnish them to their taste and rent them out to others.

This NFT appeals to a much different audience to those of the Heroes in the DFK game, and we have a lot of experience with renting out property for the past 30 years. I am hoping that future participants in Tranquility City will have the same mentality as that exhibited on existing social media, and will want to show off as much as they can when inviting friends to “their apartment”. At just over $100 each, this will either cater to those of medium to lower income (always a good choice for yield), or they will rapidly do a 100X and potentially double our entire portfolio for their miserly initial investment of 1%.

That was a shall Christmas present for my wife. In fact with four of them, there’s one for each of us.

My younger son agreed to a deal with me this week, where I fund the Heroes and he does the research in determining a sustainable buy/sell strategy - another income stream from NFTs yet to be exploited.

All in all a great fun up to the New Year and I am very pumped about Crypto in 2022 especially the income component.

https://tranquilitycity.one

Mondeoman · December 30, 2021, 5:50am

An update on the DFK token (Harmony ONE). I have completed about 60% of our latest decision to ladder in even further to DFK - in particular, funds to purchase more NFTs (DFK Heroes). The tavern facility that trades NFTs is “temporarily broken” for the last few days, so I had to put my latest acquisition of Jewel tokens (converted from ONE tokens) into the bank temporarily with “only” a 40% APR. I say “only” because the gardens are still providing an APR of around 500% on the Jewel/ONE pair, down from about 1,200% the week I started. For the other 40% of that tranche of “Sell BTC, buy ONE”, I have used my Forex plan to determine the optimum time to buy ONE tokens, based on a daily analysis of price action.

I do not have a target BUY price for ONE. Rather I am going to use the MACD and AROON up/down to determine when the bear action changes. Anything below 480 Satoshis is fine, but I am greedy because I don’t have any time pressure on this one. NFTs have downward pressure as more and more players do not have the Jewel reserves and need to sell their NFTs at lower prices. This increases the effective yield of the NFTs and the quests from which those benefits are earned have only just got going.

Any comments on the attached chart will be gratefully received. This is one of the best positions I have been in all year.

dushimes · January 7, 2022, 7:03am

I’m so lost here! Haha

This ain’t my bag. But I’m happy to take a gander. That chart looks good to me!

Mondeoman · January 7, 2022, 12:18pm

Hi,
The objective here was to determine whether this Forex plan would be applicable to my new interest in crypto gaming - trading of currencies within the games. In this particular case, the price of the ONE token is only one side of the equation. As you can see from the price action since 1Jan22, the ONE price took off like a rocket before I had a chance to ladder in more deeply. However, the impact on the game was that the Jewel tokens I temporarily held in the bank at 40% APY held along with ONE, and increased in price at an even faster rate than did the ONE. Since the NFT Heroes are priced in Jewel (but I think most players think in terms of USD), the floor price of the more common Heroes fell in the new year rapidly - by about 20% to 30% - and I was able to rapidly buy 90% of the quantity of Heroes I was looking to buy at an effective discount 20% whilst the value of my DeFi Kingdoms holding grew (in Fiat terms) by - well - you can see what happened to ONE, and is still happening despite the broader crypto market crash.

Sometimes you just get lucky, and for me that was 1-7Jan22. Long may it continue.