My journal - Greg Pawlak

I respect your patience, bro.
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Back tests do not in any way show that a trading program will be profitable in real time live trading.

People change the parameters to their trading bot indicators until they get a successful equity curve from the back test.

The only problem is that the parameters that worked for the previous back test will not work for real-time trading.


People buy these worthless trading bots because they saw a good back test result and then they lost that money plus their deposits.

Bot sellers love to show these back tests so that they can sell their trading bots to unsuspecting newbies.

If you don’t believe me about this, go to your local University and ask a math professor, he will tell you that a back test does not indicate future profits will be made and a moving average is useless and most of the basic indicators if not all of them are built upon moving averages.

Best wishes

He is a math professor not a trader, how does he know that a moving average is useless?

You can do back test in two ways, correctly or poorly.
Correctly means after created strategy, do stress test in case of different market behavior.
Poorly, skip all stress tests because equity is “nice”
trading is a game of probability

You are talking about overfit, it is nothing to do with correctly back testing

People want quick and big money, that’s why bots with nice equity curve are popular “products”. Bot sellers give traders what they want, a “nice picture”

I think James Simons also called “quant king” wouldn’t agree with you, he is a billionaire and… math professor :rofl: :joy:


Before take a word in any topic, you should get knowledge about it.

Best wishes

Are you a math professor?

I am a c language programmer with 40 years of experience writing code.

Moving averages do not predict future prices.

Basic indicators are built around moving averages.

Back tests are simulated trading from the past where people adjust the parameters that are fed into their basic indicators until they get a decent looking equity curve, and those selected parameters WILL NOT WORK for forward/real live trading.

Back tests are a party trick that fools beginners and amateurs.

To trade using the basic indicators, you might as well be throwing darts into a toilet.

I do want to recognize that I do understand that it is possible that what I’m writing could be received as rudeness, but it’s not really… I am telling you the cold hard facts that moving averages do not in any way predict a trend they do not in any way predict a ranging market and all of the basic indicators are built using moving averages which means that your back tests are pure tomfoolery.

Please carry on.


I haven’t seen anyone in this thread mention that moving averages predict the price. Also on your previous reply you said that a math professor will say that moving averages are useless. Those are 2 different things. How do you know that a math professor will have that opinion? Are you a math professor? Did you go and ask one?

You know you can back test strategies without indicators right? And how are you so sure that the selected parameters will not work?

How do I know that water is wet?

A trading bot is simply a program that reads the output value of one or more indicators and then based on conditions it either buys or sells or remains neutral.

The indicator is the core of a trading bot.

The trading bot does not function and cannot exist if it does not contain some form of indicator function.

Just because you can’t see it on the screen doesn’t mean that meta trader is not reading it and using it.

Every bot that you have ever used has been based on a moving average.

Moving averages contain two parameters that can be adjusted, the period size and the number of periods.

Using trial and error you can run a back test and slowly change the parameters until you find settings that will give you a good back test.

So now when you are live trading you don’t only have to pick up or down but you have to play using an indicator that has 50 possible parameter settings I promise you you will lose the odds are way against you.

You didn’t learn anything from my last post. I gave you a perfect example, math professor has been billionaire because of algo trading. You showed your knowledge about algo trading, now we can end this conversation. Regards Greg

I haven’t used a trading bot and if you imply that every indicator is based on a moving average that’s incorrect. Also this does not prove that moving averages are useless, so your statement is still not proven.

Also you didn’t answer any of this questions. If you can’t answer them that’s fine you can act like they don’t exist.

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no trade last week

I spent the last week designing a spit() and slurp() functions, it will not be easy to tie them into my step down filter.

I now see what you are doing.


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@BBFx27 has right, you can back test ea without indicators, simple example, Japanese candle patterns. According to your idea that “all indicators are based on moving average”, mhm… obviously you don’t know how to calculate moving average and oscillators, stochastic have two lines, but it doesn’t mean that is moving average. Finally, if you don’t want to trade via EA’s just don’t do it, it’s your choice. We can end this conversation.

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One trade last week

Last week, I opened a new account, and soon you can use acquired knowledge in Baby Pips in practice, based on my strategies.

Minor correction: all “basic/free” indicators are based on or built upon moving average(s).

Ask around if you don’t believe me.

A stochastic oscillator does in fact use moving averages.

Note: %D = SMA(%K, N)

Note: SMA=simple moving average.

I am a pure fanatic about automated trading.

I have been programming for 40 years and I’ve been programming metatarded since the day it was released back in 2005 and I am quite well-versed in creating my own stochastic oscillator if that’s what I wanted to do and I am aware that every indicator that I have ever looked at is based on moving average(s).

My first programming language was Atari basic.

ALL TRADING BOTS include an indicator function.

Just because it doesn’t make a graphical display doesn’t mean that the indicator function doesn’t exist in your trading bot.

If you have a bot that operates based on Japanese candle patterns, then you have an indicator function inside the bot that reads the candle patterns and returns a value to you…

whether or not you display a graphical representation of that indicator value means nothing.

All trading bots use an indicator function, no exceptions.

I told you 10 days ago to end this conversation, if you want to talk about indicators, open the own topic. Regards Greg


I sincerely apologize for any indiscretion that was on my part, but I thought I was in the baby pips forum which is a public forum.

You responded to me by telling me that indicators are not used in trading bots I just explain to you fully that they are the core of bots.

If you want to walk around and pretend that an automobile operates without a motor and a transmission and wheels, hey that’s fine with me.

Best wishes with your trading.

one trade last week

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I like how this thread is going. I don’t mean in the sense of TA or FA. I mean how you say ¨one trade this week¨, ¨no trades this week¨.

It’s kinda boring, and it’s great. I spent last week looking at the charts and refraining from trading. I think I took one or two trades.

I was trying to teach myself patience. This morning was my first day willing to trade again. I didn’t do much. I saw just ONE signal, and it was not a new trade. It was a chance to pyramid, so I took it.

That’s it. I didn’t do anything else. It’s awful, and dreadfully boring. I could feel the chemicals in my brain desperate to trade. The voice was saying ¨hey maybe we can jump on that trend there¨, ¨hey let’s try a trade right here¨.

And when I heard that voice, I had to think back to my backtests. In my backtests, the signals are super easy to spot. Maybe I was wrong today, but I didn’t see anything that resembled the signs I saw in my backtests. Nothing.

I finished my first round of trading in about 30 minutes. After that, I had some pairs to take another look at. But, I actually felt a little confused because I had all this extra time and I didn’t know what to do with myself. It was really boring.

A trader on here had said that you’re doing it right if your trading is getting boring.

I trade D1. I look at my backtests and sometimes there’s no signal for 30 days. I’ve seen trades that I would’ve had to wait three months, just to get stopped out. But, it’s better to take a trade and get stopped out once, than to switch buy, sell and be wrong five times.

Hence, my strategy is similar to yours in that it’s not supposed to be filled signals everyday. Possibly not even every week! And that’s the challenge.

How long can we sit, look at charts, and do nothing?

How willing we are to wait will determine our success. No position IS a position.

@ProfesorPips This thread is encouraging. Thanks!

Boring is the new exciting!