My journey journal...from demo to live...and beyond

[steveepperson]

@MikeWolski

I simply do not have anyone to talk to, in depth, about the market.

I’m with you. In my area, I would estimate that 95% of everyday citizens have never even heard of FOREX. When I try and explain what I do for a living, people react like they would when you tell them you are a professional artist:

“So what do you REALLY do for a living?” Or my favorite:

THE BLANK STARE

Anyway, thanks for sharing your journal with the rest of the world. I tried doing that for a while and got so much criticism (comes with the territory) that it became too much of a distraction. Kudos to you for hanging in there with it.

[MikeWolski]

Good m…afternoon Journal!
Yeah, this is a switch, being in here in the afternoon on a Sat. Normally it’ll be early in the morning. I’m a morning person. But today’s turning out differently for us. My Trish had to leave for the day (with her girlfriend), but not before we had to get our shopping done. Yeah, we had to do this quite early today.

So now. All done with everything. She’s gone. And very quiet around here. All I plan on doing is working on my business. This will be my first stop. I can explain a lot of things I’ve done this week, which is very helpful for me. And then, when I’m done in here I’ll have to look over my Business Journal. See, I don’t do anything unless I’ve started it in there. I write stuff down, like all my trading decisions, my thinking, actually anything that I do in my business. And well, I need to go over all that stuff. The weekends is definitely the time for that. Right?

Anyway. That’s nice.

Let’s see. How about looking over what happened in the market this week. Look. I don’t know about you, but when it comes to this review stuff, I’m not all that keen about it. My first instinct is to say something like this. “All of this is the past! We’ve lived through it already. So why rehash all this nonsense? What happens in the future is new stuff, not old, right?”

That is one point of view. But when I think about it, there’s another point of view. I think I’ll call this a narrative. Kind of like a story. We kind of need to keep up with it. There’s things that have been happening that we shouldn’t forget. So, let’s talk about these things. You’ll see what I’m talking about.

I’ve come to learn the best way to look at these currencies is on a weekly basis. In that context, I believe, is most prudent to look at. Back and forth they always go, but there always comes that break in the action on the weekends. We are all forced to step back and analyze the sentiment.

Last weekend was going something like this.

@MikeWolski

And doesn’t it figure Journal…for all of last month I was long the USD. Then learnt my lesson, which is to stick to the trend. Then now that I’m following it…what…it’s counter trending. Figures.

• USD been bullish. Most bid currency in the first week of this month.
• CAD been bullish. Been wondering which side of the fence they’re riding on. With the Comms…or with the USD?
• Comms (AUD, NZD). Seem to be faultering a bit. Just not too strong this month so far.
• Safe haven buying been happening (last Thurs quite prevelant).

Alright.
With all that in mind, let’s see some numbers this past week.

The top part is the month running. Each day been added onto from the last. The bottom table is the individual daily results by themselves. Lastly, results of that week.

So. Some questions.
Who was the most bought currency this past week?

• The CHF — +9.03%

Who was the most sold currency this past week?

• The GBP ---- -27.97%

Risk on currencies compared to the safe haven currencies?

• The safe havens are more bought. This past week, and since the beginning of the month.

The CAD is running in confluence with who more?

• The Comms, moreso than with the USD. In the monthly context.

Big game changer day.

• Tuesday. USD and the JPY most bid currencies. But also their respective bear trends changed to bull trends at this EOD.

The most volatile currency.

• The GBP. I’m pretty sure the BREXIT scenario has caused this nightmare.

Alright. That gave us some kind of feeling about the field. Right?
How about we zoom in a little more. Let’s look at some trends.
I’ve already mentioned the USD, and the JPY. So, we’ll start with them.

Well, remember at the onset, how I mentioned that they’ve been having a bought up month? And been wondering whether that will continue? Well, there’s the numbers. They go from quite a strong bear market right into a bull market and continues pretty deep in, so far.

Journal, I’ve always told you how similar those 2 run. Here’s the proof. I don’t make this stuff up.

I want to make a point about context.
Look at Wednesday. If someone just woke up and seen all that selling of the USD and the JPY that day, without the knowledge of what’s been happening lately, they would’ve thought their respective worlds are crashing. Nope. On the contrary, they’ve just retraced a good portion of what they lost the day before. And the market goes for some more on Thursday.

It all needs to be put into the proper perspective. My estimation of their trends change over from bear to bull, on that day. I remember it. I did feel the change in the air that day. Anyway. The complete currency pip count is as follows.

USD
Monday = +236 pips
Tuesday = +488 pips
Wednesday = -309 pips
Thursday = +263 pips
Friday = -88 pips

Total = +590 pips
BTW…For the USD, on Monday, that’s a -236 pip result due to being in a bear market. But up above I counted it as positive.

JPY
Monday = +234 pips
Tuesday = +638 pips
Wednesday = -423 pips
Thursday = +302 pips
Friday = -121 pips

Total = +630 pips

So. Remember all last month I was thinking that the USD was gonna turn and burn? Into a bull market? But never did!!! Well, now it comes. Better late than never, I guess. That’s so typical. We always seem to get things right, just not at the correct timing. We should all know by now, that timing is everything.

It was a busy week, this past week. Not only did these 2 change trends, but others did also. Can you guess who?

Sorry to even mention it. But the Pound lost their butts. I’ll go over this quickly.

Monday = -719 pips
Tuesday = -843 pips
Wednesday = -399 pips
Thursday = -1360 pips
Friday = -246 pips

Total = - 3,567 pips

I’ll have to go over how I navigated these trend changes, in regards to my trading. You remember Journal, what I do, right?

FOLLOW

Well, the quick of it, was… I lost that first day of the week, of course. But then I was short the GBP every day thereafter. So yeah, I made the pips.

Let’s don’t stop here. We got more currencies that turned the bend.

The CHF and the EUR.
Now the Swiss makes sense. I think they are being caught up in the safe haven buying. And well, the EUR. IDK. Probably because of what’s happening with the Brexit situation.

CHF

Netted +857 total pips this week (for long).

EUR

Netted +611 total pips this week (for long).

And again. I had to navigate these 2 for my trading. When they switch, then so do I. But I had to wait until Friday mid day to do it. Needed to make sure they would end up this way going into the weekend.

I do have to tell you. My numbers are very skewed because of the Pound. Let me explain.

What do you notice different on how they ended?
Everybody is in a bull market, except the GBP.
This has never happened before.
How can this be?

Let’s look closer at the GBP.

Last weekend at this time they were sitting on a bull market. 67 pips in.
To come up with the aggregate total (on the right), all I am doing is adding up the individual pip spreads, per each of the 7 other currencies.
Well, those are some big pip spreads, per each pair. That, in effect, will make those other currencies quite plentiful with their totals. Skewing them majorly. Look at the worst one. The CAD.

They are in a bear market against every other currency, except the GBP. Right? But add up all of their totals. That puts them aggregately in a bull market. Cause that 105 is so large, that it covers all of the other ones. What does this mean? Really.
There’s 105 pips of a difference between the 5 ema line and the 9 ema line on the GBP. But not all that many between all of the other ones. See that 1-6 number? That means they’re bull against 1 currency and bear against 6 currencies. Normally that number won’t drop below 3. But it sure does now, huh?

Here’s the GBP chart.

So. If you look back at their table. The GBP/USD pair has 93 pips there, right? That’ll be 93 pips in between the 5 and 9 ema lines on that particular pair. That’s the latest result on that pair. And so on, with the other pairs.

But that’s all I’m doing in order to find out these currencies’ trends. I’m adding up the 5/9 pip spreads. Getting a sum total aggregate number. That’ll be the answer.

Let’s look at the CAD chart.

You can see that on all of the pairs (except the GBP) that the 5/9 pip spreads all favor the non-CAD currency. You can just look above at their trend table. Those are the spreads. Like with the USD. There’s 13 pips in between the 5ema line and the 9ema line. Favoring the USD of course.

Well, all I have to say is. This is one of the perks of trading a basket of currencies. You don’t have to be correct on all of the pairs. In fact, even most of them, either! Cause just take a look at my GBP/CAD pair. See where I got in on that one? Yeah. What’s up. That’s the top. Been riding that sucker all the way down.

And why is that? Cause the CAD has not changed trends yet! Technically they’re still in a bull trend, thanks to the GBP of course. You’ve seen those numbers up there. Sure. It’s skewed. But my account is in the positive. Look.

Look at the pip count, for my trades, on the top right. And how many am I in with the GBP?
A lot.

Anyway. This is basket trading for ya. I love it. I don’t have to be right a whole lot. Just aggregately speaking.

So. Getting back to the point.
Which is…
The GBP skewing up my numbers?
shrug
I took profit twice from them this week.

And as far as every currency being in a bull trend, except the GBP, then so be it. Someone can just look at that one pair (GBP/CAD) and say it’s in a bull trend, right? Right! So then, that’s just the way it goes I guess. I know that the CAD is slipping away, aggregately speaking, but not as much as the GBP is. In effect, the GBP is the only thing keeping them in the game. What can you do though?

Well, I better wrap this up.
So, let’s see. What can we say about the current state of the market?

• Most of the attention has gone to the GBP. It’s a sell.

The monthly running %'s.

• The safe havens are being more bought than anything else.
• The Comms are slipping away.
• God bless the Queen.

Alright Journal.
Gonna fly.
I’ll come back with what my trading has been up to.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

I’ve been spending a lot of time going through my trades.
Very interesting, I got to say.

I mean, don’t we always do that anyway? I don’t know, maybe it’s because I’m such a perfectionist. But I’ll constantly go over what all my system entails. I guess a good parallel would be this. If you had a telescope (like the ones that pirates have) and was constantly zooming in and out on something. I’m talking, like, pausing at a particular point. Looking at that perspective for a while. Then, immediately changing it back and forth along the whole entire range. Oscillating the thing. Getting as much as a view as I can, all at once. Then I’ll zoom in on the finest point for a little while (microscope style). Just examining all of the different perspectives like that, spending certain amount of times at particular areas. How about this angle? That angle? Upside down even.

Frankly, I do that a lot. It’s kind of like how my mind operates. In any case, when it comes to my strategy, I’m always trying to discover more and more things about it. You know, the dynamics of it. There’s positive things about it, but also negative things. I’ll show you.

Let’s look at my GBP trade this week.
Well, as we all know, they went in one direction and in one direction only. But did I know this was gonna happen? Absolutely not. And it started early on too. Monday end of day comes. And it’s a disaster.

I document everything. And when I seen this at EOD, I’m like, this is a big change. Time to switch directions. In fact, it really doesn’t matter what I think, all I’m doing is following my protocol. And that is, when the trend changes, then so do I. Yeah boy, it wasn’t pleasant losing that amount of money, but let’s just stomach it and move on. Look.

I mean, I even had a margin alert showing. That’s quite embarrassing. Anyway. What can I do…let’s just do what I got to do and move on. So therefore, I switch directions. That entails exiting out of my 7 GBP pairs. Getting back in going bear market GBP. But with a different position sizing on each pair (smaller). Originally I started out with 20k units on each pair. And now I will go with 18k units on each pair.

What can I do. I swallow that pill.
Will this trend continue? I sure hope so. In any case, it doesn’t matter, I need to follow my strategy. And it states that when their trend changes so do it. At end of day.

This is what I follow right here. It’s my indicator.

That’s my end of day results for the Pound. They switched from a bull market (long) to a bear market (short). I colored that day’s pip results (719), so that’s the difference between my perfect system and my day late system. In a perfect world, if I would have known before the day started to go short GBP, then I would have gained +719 pips for the day. But that can’t happen. So then, at end of day, is when I determine what trend it is and then, and only then, do I know the results. I lost -719 pips on the day. Oh well, what can you do.

Btw…there’s a reason why I want to know what the perfect system results are. So therefore I keep that number up there as a positive (I count them). But I just color it to make it easy to see when there will be a difference between those 2 systems (perfect, day late).

Let’s move on.

Well that didn’t take long. It was only a day later that I seen this. And what do you know, it’s much past my 10% profit taking target. Yeah, I can live with it. +18.10%. I seen this during my mid day. It was around lunch time for me, in between my morning and afternoon school bus runs. I have a couple hours of down time. So I’m like…yep…time to take profit. I’m over my 10% threshold.

So, I do what I do. Exited out of all 7 short GBP positions. Immediately got back in with higher position sizing. Was 18k units per pair this time.

So then, it only takes another one day! Check it out…again.

So all this was a repeat from what I just did the day before. At lunch time, after I got home, I took profit again. And then re entered again. Same thing.

This time it was even higher, of a profit. +21.19%

So I do what I do. Get back in. Going the same way of course. This time my position sizing is higher. 24k units on each pair.

And so, that was that. This is the latest on this complete currency pair.

Well, I told you Journal, that whoever in the market is gonna make a big move, I’ll be in it. Yep. It happened. It’s awesome. Did I know this was gonna happen last weekend at this time? Absolutely not. No one did. You have to admit, this was a huge move for any currency. Even for the GBP.

The only way I can make this happen is by being in with all of them. You just do not know who’s turn it’s gonna be. For good or for bad. We just don’t know.

But think about it. What am I doing? All I’m doing is following a trend. Right? Remember what I was saying at the beginning about how I look at my strategy?

How did I catch this?
By taking the big hit on Monday EOD.
Switched trends.
Stayed in it to the end.

This doesn’t happen all the time. For every one good story I can tell you, there’s an opposite story.

I’ll tell you the biggest problem with trend following. Or I should say with my strategy. And that is on the switching days. That slippage…really sets you back.

This past week was not a good week for me. Overall that is. Cause I encountered 5 trend switches (out of my total 8 currencies). Last week I only encountered 1 trend switch. Was a better week for me. So therefore, the more trend switching that happens, the more I lose on the bottom line.

I’ll show you an example. My worst currency this past week.
The JPY.

See what I mean about what happens on the trend switching days? There was 638 pips that were lost, that day, due to the changing of their trend.

Did I know this was coming? Absolutely not. How can I? There’s absolutely nothing I can do about this. So, my trading results end up like this.

• Monday = -234 pips
• Tuesday = -638 pips
• Wednesday = -423 pips
• Thursday = +302 pips
• Friday = -121 pips

Total = -1,114 pips

Well, if someone could have seen that they were gonna get strong this week, and simply started out going JPY long, well then, that’s a different situation. That’s speculating. Not following. You know what those results would have been?
----- +630 pips

I mean, that’s the game though. Right? Hindsight is 20/20. This is precisely what trips up every trader. When you see what has happened, after the fact, and then think you can somehow come up with a strategy that will make the future turn out the way you want. It just won’t happen.

That’s precisely why I choose a particular, defined point. It’s something that will always happen. A change in trend. It’s just…I never know when it happens. But at least I can narrow it down to something that is guaranteed of happening. And in the market, that’s saying something.

---

Alright. I’m back. Sorry. Took a pretty long break.

Where were we?

---

I guess I was taking a look at my trading. The plan. It’s effectiveness. Sometimes good. Sometimes not so good. Let’s continue with some other examples.

The AUD.
Again. This is what I look at. My indicator. It guides my actions. I follow.

At the beginning of the month, I set it. Long AUD. My 7 AUD long pairs. And well, looks like I haven’t had to do anything. No changing of their trend. But if you look closely at the figures (inside the green…which is the strength of that trend), their bull trend has been deteriorating all the way up to the 8th. Basically, that was a lot of counter trend moving. So, what do you think I’m thinking? Probably change trends? Right? I mean, the market sentiment has definitely been going towards risk-off. That spells trouble for the AUD currency (should anyway).

Well, what’s the pip count from the 1st through the 8th? Being long.
Answer = -498 pips.
Ok then. What happens next?
Comes on back up. All in the last 3 days. And how many pips occurred in these last 3 days?
Answer = +704 pips.

Wow. What does this tell us?
Maybe…that my strategy of staying in until the stated trend changes actually works.

I’ve traded this way this entire year. And if anyone should know by now, it’s you Journal. I’ve told you many times already how the AUD produces great results. And on the contrary, how the JPY produces such not-so-good results.

I can’t figure out why. But there is definitely a difference in their dynamics. My only summarization is that the AUD basket of trades work better than the JPY ones.

Anyway.

Well, this explains a lot. Look up there on the top right. The individual pairs’ pip counts. What do we got? All in the negative except with the GBP. Again. Just like with the CAD. This is quite skewed. It’s not actually a bid up of the AUD currency. It’s a bidding down of the GBP!

In any case…what am I to do about this? Anything?
No.
I do think it’s good to be aware of though.

For instance, the feeling in the air is for a low AUD. Remember what the first 6 trading days of this month produced. AUD selling. So therefore, I’m prepared and ready for their trend to change. I won’t bat an eye when the time comes. That’s all.
Got to be aware of what’s going on in the market. That’s what this is all about. Plain and simple.

How about their close relative the NZD. What’s up with them?

Well, they came down just like the AUD all the way up to the 8th. Same thing. But, you have to see it. They are faultering in the same way as the AUD. That 2-5 figure means that they are in a bull market against 2 other currencies. They are in a bear market against 5 other currencies. That’s a big drop from the 7-0 bull market they were comfortable being in for so long. Let’s face it…things are crumbling. I mean, it only matches the risk-off sentiment the broad market is conveying.

Alright Journal.
Looks like I need to cut this.
I’ll come right back and go through my other currencies.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Journal.

My EUR trade.
This is what I follow.

So, Thursday comes. And what do I see? A change in trend. I remember that day. I was a little in disbelief about it.

Why?

Is the whole skewing the market has been doing lately. Originating from the GBP. I’ll show you what I’m talking about.

When I take a closer look inside the EUR of what’s happening, what I see is that the GBP is really the only thing making them climb up into the bull territory. They basically doubled those pip spreads. The EUR/GBP pair. It goes from 24 pips to 48 in one day. Unbelievable. And all because of that, the EUR is now considered riding in a bull trend? Look over there on the right side. That’s just the sum total of all of it’s parts. It just doesn’t make sense.

Anyway.

What I decided to do was wait one more day. It was at the end of day Thursday anyway. I just wasn’t going to be so hasty about it, that’s all. I figured on waiting to see what happens on Friday. If this was gonna continue (the EUR bullishness), then I would act.

So. At mid day on Friday, I ran the premature numbers. Yeah, it was a few hours before the closing, but I needed know. And it came up with 60 pips BULL. That means there was a sum total of 60 pips in between all of the 5 and 9 ema lines. That climbed above the 10 BULL result which was on Thursday EOD. Ok then. Time to switch.

This is what it looks like just before I make the switch.

This was Friday’s results.

The EUR’s complete currency pip count that day was +127 pips.
Sure, I should have gotten in at Thursday’s EOD. Now that I see it in hindsight. But I just wanted to make sure. I’m not upset about it. Just as long as I ended the week being on the correct side, is really all I’m concerned about.

The CHF story.
Is the very carbon copy of the EUR one. Both of these currencies were performed at the same time.

Well, concerning the CHF. They do follow the EUR a lot of the times. But don’t forget, they also are a safe haven currency. And if you ask me, Friday pushed them all the way into their new bull market trend. They are trending bull against every currency (7-0). Sans the Pound. Plus, 102 is on the deep side. But, you have to see the numbers closely. Their bull against everyone else, but not by a whole lot. Riding the line quite tightly. Anything can happen moving forward.

Anyway.

Well, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that the more switching of trends that take place, the more I will lose.

I guess I will finish with the USD.

Boy…if you can’t see the skew here also…unbelievable. The ending here. I’ve been mentioning this with a lot of the other currencies. Is the only reason the USD is riding in a stated bull trend because of the GBP??? That’s 93 pips of the total amount of 116 belong to the GBP.
Anyway.

So, EOD Tuesday comes, and what a doozy. Of course I was short the USD until the end of the day. That’s -488 pips worth also.

Ok. So. Time to change directions.
This is what horror looks like.

I exit out of all my 7 trades. Come back in with 14k sizes on each pair (much lower than the original 20k sizes). So. We move on.

Here’s the latest look on my USD account.

Boy…that doesn’t look good. Whatsoever.
I’ll even shock you with this.

And that’s a starting account balance of 10k from the beginning of the month. Not going so good, huh.

All I have to say, Journal, is this.

I trust my system.

I have to ride this out to the end. The end of the story has not been written. I just need more time to play out. This interim time period is not always a pleasant time.

At the end of the day, I am super happy that I am on track by following my system. That’s my main concern.

Alright Journal.
I’m out.
See ya next time.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

Well, let’s see what’s going on out there in the market. But first, we got to know where we were.

@MikeWolski

So, let’s see. What can we say about the current state of the market?

• Most of the attention has gone to the GBP. It’s a sell.

@MikeWolski

• The safe havens are being more bought than anything else.
• The Comms are slipping away.

Well, I’ll get this out of the way real quick. The Chinese Yuan. I seen an article about how they are on the up and up. You do have to admit, they just might be up to something. Like changing their minds about wanting a weaker currency to a stronger one. Possibly due to their new stated strategy. It’s a dual thing. Their trying to strengthen both their domestic and foreign consumption. Basically, they might be thinking it’ll be better for them if their imports are cheaper (with a stronger currency). And well, they have been on the top spot on my monthly line up. So, that is being noticed by some analysts. And they’ll throw in their opinion about it. We’ll just have to keep this in mind, that’s all. But, that’s precisely why I’m watching their numbers.

And with that…let’s see the latest monthly figures.

This is what I find interesting.

• JPY got boosted this past week. From a running % of 5.97% last weekend to a 14.43% now. (+8.46% increase this week).
• The other 2 safe havens (USD, CHF) have dropped down (not followed the Yen).
• The NZD and the AUD are diverting (again). A little while back this was going on. I remember, cause I was complaining about this to you Journal. I just don’t understand this particular dynamic. This is very interesting to me. NZD = +7.55% /// AUD = -3.79%
• The GBP sprang back some, from their fall last week. +4.93% I would say this is just a small retracement. Definitely not a change in trend.
• The CAD dropped. -5.81% They’ve been falling ever since NFP. Having a selling month.

Ok. Yep. That’s nice. We got some kind of picture of what’s going on, right? I would say the JPY got the strength this week. Probably from the safe haven status. Remember what we had last week? Just look up above. The safe havens have been bought up this month.
Here’s what our Pip Diddy had to say about them in his write up on the JPY.

"The Japanese yen takes the top spot this week, riding higher despite weak economic updates from Japan.

It’s likely traders were buying yen this week as broad risk sentiment leaned more negative than positive, expectations of the new PM to continue Abenomics, and possibly on positive vibes from the latest Bank of Japan statement."

Man…I just love his weekly reviews. You just got to know what’s going on with these countries. It’s their fundamentals. I believe this is stuff we need to know. There’s no excuse for tunnel vision. Why wouldn’t somebody not want to get as much information as possible on why these currencies move?

That’s just an opinion on mine. Sorry. Everyone’s different. Maybe it’s just that I fancy macroeconomics very much. In any case, I fully appreciate all of Pip Diddy’s work. He’s a real genius.

What else is going on? Do we need to get micro on anyone in particular? Let me look around.

Alright. How about this.
Let’s look at and compare the 3 safe haven currencies. And in particular, their respective trends. This month.

• They all changed over to bull trends in the second week of the month.
• This past week the USD and the CHF changed back to stated bear markets. But not the JPY.

Well, I think the best way to view these and to compare, is to look at their strength of their trend. The number inside the color (green or red).

• The USD has been weakening since Sep 10th.
• The CHF has been weakening since Sep 14th.
• The JPY has been strengthening this whole time.
• We’re only talking this past week have they diverted.

Look. This is how I think about this. This is a dynamic. It’s just how the market is bending and molding their relationships. We’re not always gonna have them acting in the same way in regards to one another. What is, is what is. I just always find myself saying these words. "It’s very interesting."

So. In summary, what can we say then (about the safe haven currencies)?

Well, Pip Diddy said it, it was more risk-off sentiment this past week. But, as I have proved, it wasn’t coming by the USD and the CHF. It was only because of the JPY. So we can say that the risk-off sentiment has been continuing this month.

Let’s get a particular look at what happened this week. In this context.

Those are individual daily results. Nothing but straight up. Take these simply by what happened that day.

• First off, we didn’t have any real moving currencies this week. The %'s are way too small. Around 5-6% a day is considered moving (volatile). That’s from open to close prices. Sure, there could have been some serious spring back during a day (making for some volatility), but in the end, the way it ends (I think) is most important.
• The NZD took 2 days, for a most bid currency.
• The JPY bought pretty good every day. That’s kind of uncommon.
• Other than Friday, the USD has been tracking the CHF. Or maybe vise versa.
• The AUD and NZD are diverging.

Let’s go back to the safe havens again. One more look at another perspective.

Those are the details on how they switched trends. You add up the 7 individual pairs to come up with an aggregate final determination (on the right). And as I have mentioned (complained) last week, the GBP surely skewed up these numbers. That’s why it took much longer for the Swiss and the USD to finally change trends. Just look at the GBP pair compared to all the other pairs. No comparison.

In any case, it should be evident on how the JPY is not trending bear against any other currency, in particular. Also, this can show you just how much stronger the JPY is faring on one currency pair against any other pair. And from what I see, the NZD is the closest currency to be taking them out. 3. Possibly. In fact, that might be a good proxy of judging whether the sentiment changes back to more risk-on. We’ll have to see.

Anyway. Check out the USD. Last week at this time, they were running a bull market against every currency except one (CHF). Their aggregate total was 116 BULL. Well, that changed over the course of this week. Didn’t it? But, those numbers were all on the border line anyway. So, it shouldn’t be such a surprise.

They are still running a bull market against the GBP and the CAD. See. Someone with tunnel vision could be thinking that the USD is maybe a little stronger than they really are. You have to see all of the parts, working together. So…are they? Uh…no. I don’t think so. It’s the same old USD. Back down they go. Seems like it anyway. Why fight it.

But this is my whole entire point. Frankly, I don’t care what any one single currency pair is doing. That means nothing to me. I think that is being short sighted. For a true comparison of how they are all relating to one another, you absolutely need to know what the sum total is. And that is what I go by, nothing less than that. That’s what I follow. The aggregate.

Alright Journal.
Got to run.
Mike

For anyone interested (or daring), here’s my numbers.
Much comparison and analysis can be done in here, trust me.

MY 2020 NUMBERS.xlsx (879.8 KB)

[eclipz3]

@MikeWolski

And that’s a starting account balance of 10k from the beginning of the month. Not going so good, huh.

I see you have been stuck on demo for awhile despite your awesome journal and tracking done here. You may just need a little adjustments to your system to make it profitable. My door is open to such traders demonstrating this level of commitment. Keep up the great work.

Also had a quick glance at your spreedsheet, so the first page is the trades and the rest are you tracking the movements of the pairs?

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

Sat. morning, and still early, now. Yeah, I was planning on making it an early morning, this morning. I haven’t done this in some time. Getting up very early and getting a lot of work done. Oh, you know Journal, how I was. Remember the days that I was getting up at 2:30 am? Then I settled on 3am. And that wasn’t just for a small amount of time either. I kept that schedule for like 5 years or so. That was back when I was working full time at the shop. And then on the weekends, that was my most cherished time ever. I took advantage of every hour I could. I mean…I never slept in. Never. All I cared about was my numbers. The market. My business. All of that. I don’t know, it was like I was under the influence, of something. I guess I’m just a driven kind of person.

But then the times change. I grow up. I learn what’s most important in life. Prioritize my life a little better. You know, things like sleep. God. Life in general. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll always be a morning person. 4am is when my alarm goes off everyday. Even on the weekends. I remember when I first went to that time. It was like I was sleeping in every single day. Kind of weird. But, actually, was a relief. Sleep does the body good.

But…I got to tell ya Journal. I’ve been hot on the trail lately. Been running a lot of numbers, and just been kicking around some things about trading in general. So, this weekend, I plan on taking advantage of my morning times. And it started this morning. I woke up at 2am. Kind of like bringing back the good 'ol days. It’s quite easy to wake up when you have that sense of anticipation about what you want to do. It’s that feeling you get when you’re a kid waking up on Christmas morning. That excitement that runs through your mind about what’s gonna happen next.

The only difference nowadays, for me, is that I put my Lord first before anything. I spent the first hour with Him. Like I said… priorities.

And then, a little after 3am comes, and I get to work. I don’t want to get all into it now, about exactly what I’m doing, but just know it has to do with numbers. I guess it falls under the heading of back testing. I’ve just been having some ideas lately. Testing them out.

Anyway. Enough of that talk.
How about we look at what the market is doing?

Alright. Where are we at?
Here’s what I said last weekend at this time.

@MikeWolski

This is what I find interesting.

• JPY got boosted this past week. From a running % of 5.97% last weekend to a 14.43% now. (+8.46% increase this week).
• The other 2 safe havens (USD, CHF) have dropped down (not followed the Yen).
• The NZD and the AUD are diverting (again). A little while back this was going on. I remember, cause I was complaining about this to you Journal. I just don’t understand this particular dynamic. This is very interesting to me. NZD = +7.55% /// AUD = -3.79%
• The GBP sprang back some, from their fall last week. +4.93% I would say this is just a small retracement. Definitely not a change in trend.
• The CAD dropped. -5.81% They’ve been falling ever since NFP. Having a selling month.

@MikeWolski

Here’s what our Pip Diddy had to say about them in his write up on the JPY.

"The Japanese yen takes the top spot this week, riding higher despite weak economic updates from Japan.

It’s likely traders were buying yen this week as broad risk sentiment leaned more negative than positive, expectations of the new PM to continue Abenomics, and possibly on positive vibes from the latest Bank of Japan statement."

With that in mind, what happened this past week?

• Is the risk-off sentiment still on?
• Are the other safe haven currencies catching a bid?

And there is what happened on each day in particular. Underneath, is the weekly all totaled up.

And yes, to answer the question, the safe havens are still on it. But this time, it wasn’t the JPY. It was the USD. Right? Also, for as much as the USD was a bid, the Comms (AUD,NZD) were a sell. Just about in the same amount.

Also. I talked a little about the CNY (Chinese Yuan) last week.

@MikeWolski

Well, I’ll get this out of the way real quick. The Chinese Yuan. I seen an article about how they are on the up and up. You do have to admit, they just might be up to something. Like changing their minds about wanting a weaker currency to a stronger one. Possibly due to their new stated strategy. It’s a dual thing. Their trying to strengthen both their domestic and foreign consumption. Basically, they might be thinking it’ll be better for them if their imports are cheaper (with a stronger currency). And well, they have been on the top spot on my monthly line up. So, that is being noticed by some analysts. And they’ll throw in their opinion about it. We’ll just have to keep this in mind, that’s all. But, that’s precisely why I’m watching their numbers.

Well, their still at it. This week, out of all 9 of those currencies, the CNY, was the most bid currency both on Tues and Fri. Is interesting. Again.
Don’t worry, I got my eye on them.

What else.

Well, along the same vein as last weekend, about the safe havens. Notice how the CHF did not come out to play?

I’ll blame it on the SNB.

Or were they trailing the EUR?
Nah…I don’t think so.

Well, that’ll be 2 strong weeks in a row that the safe haven currencies have dominated. In fact, let’s just take a look at what the month is looking like. We’re almost to the end.
This is the months running %'s.

Well that should clear it up for ya, right? It’s the USD, JPY show. They’ve been taking turns this month. Also, just look at the CHF. They’re starting to disconnect from the EUR. I’m sorry, but I happen to think that the SNB is seeing this safe haven buying and is trying everything to keep them more of a sell than a buy. Look. Up there at Sep 10th and the 11th. All 3 safe havens at the top. And the Swiss National Bank sees that too. From that point on they depress the CHF. I don’t know, whether it’s true or not, it doesn’t matter. It is interesting though.

The Comm currencies got murdered this week. Both of them. Remember their divergence I was telling you about last week? Well, now we know which way things went. South. I mean, where was the NZD gonna go anyway? Up more? No way. The safe havens are the bid, not the Comms. And that’s precisely the way it went this week. Down comes the NZD to big brother (AUD).

Yeah, I had some trend changes take place this week.
Here’s a look at the safe haven currencies’ trends.

• All 3 in a stated bear market at the beginning of the month.
• All 3 get stronger and switch to their respective bull markets.
• The JPY stays strong (bull) mid month while the other 2 waver into bear market territory.
• The USD bounces back into bull market territory with the JPY. And getting stronger in it.
• The CHF does not bounce back. Dropping deeper into that bear market.

Here’s the 2 Comms.

• The AUD cracked on Mon EOD.
• The NZD cracked on Wed EOD.
• For the month, the AUD topped on Sep 11th.
• But the NZD topped on Sep 18th. All downhill from there.

How about the GBP.
What’s their trend looking like?

• Fell hard this month, and didn’t retrace even half of where they came from.

I don’t know what to make of the EUR and the CAD. This is their respective trends.

• And there goes the EUR, switching back and forth again.
• The CAD is…doing what they do. I don’t even know what that is. Can’t tell whether they are following the Comms or the USD. Honestly, I think they’re torn and are doing both. Down with the Comms (as you see there in the red), and some bidding along with the great month the Dollar is having this month.

Look way up above there at my first screen shot. The CAD ended this week being +3.00%. That’s much closer to the USD than the Comms. We’ll call it a positive week for them, as opposed to a negative week.

Actually, as I’m looking more closely to that pic, they were the most bid currency on Thursday. Huh… I wonder why? shrug
Well, in any case, they surely wasn’t following the AUD and the NZD currencies that day. Right? Probably some good economic data that came out. Can’t forget about that dynamic on our currencies. They can travel independently. For a day or two, anyway.

Well, I think I touched on everyone.
We’re heading into the last few days of the month. It’s definitely the most volatile time of a month. But not only that, we have the end of the 3rd quarter upon us, this time.

If any one is interested. This is what it looks like in that context.
Quarterly running %'s.

Can’t get the entire quarter in, but that’s the running %'s since July 1st. Anything standing out?

• The USD. At one point was running at -37.57%. EOD Aug 31st. So basically, all they did was do some retracing from that point. Their sitting at -18.66% now, as the most sold currency this quarter. And the point here is this…without knowing this context, you would think the USD is really stronger than it really is. You got to know from where they came from. Cause they’re not that strong.

• The EUR is. Not only are they the most bought currency this quarter ( +17.97%), but they are the most bought up currency this year so far.

BY FAR.

So, all I got to say is, don’t count out the EUR. Sure, not such a good month (as seen from above), but having a good quarter and year. More than anyone else can say.

Got to keep the proper perspective.

Alright Journal.
Thanks for listening to all that nonsense.
Well, I plan on waking up early again tomorrow morning. Maybe I’ll come in here and talk about something more interesting, like what I’ve been working on.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

Well, it’s still early. Been up for awhile now. Getting a lot of work done.

I really wasn’t planning on coming in here today. Been so busy working on stuff. Sorry Journal. But…you got to check this out.

Well, I had, have, am presently going through, my ‘ah ha!’ moment.

Look. All I’ve been doing, lately, is back testing. My system. And because of that, it hit me. This has been under my nose the whole time. I don’t know why I didn’t realize it. Actually, I was realizing it this year, but for some reason didn’t want to embrace it.

It’s kind of like, it’s too easy. This is gonna be too boring. But you know what? I have to go with it.

I’m gonna be doing a lot of explaining here.

This is gonna be my Anchor Trade.
Remember that Journal?
As I was taught by my mentor, Terry, an anchor trade is that trade in which you know you will be successful at. It’s that proven, most relied upon strategy that you know works. You make your money off of it. Time and time again you have had success with it. It’s your bread and butter. That go-to trading strategy.

Well, I was all around it this year. And I never really realized it. Until now. I’m gonna trade this till the wheels fall off. Just to make sure.

And how did I realize this?

Like I said, it was because of the back testing that I’ve been doing. But let me walk you through it, on how exactly I came to realize it. I’m sure you will too.

This is my system. My strategy. The way I generate money out of the market.

Complete Currency Trade

• Basket of trades. That’s 7 pairs with the one currency as the common denominator
• All going in the same direction of that one currency
• All 7 pairs are treated as one. What’s done with one is done with all the others in the same manner. Ex…position size, exits, stops.

Perpetually running

• This is mostly related to a swing trading style than anything else
• This trade runs all the time. No in and out. Just riding out the stated trends.

Trade management

• Only under 2 conditions will I intervene
• Take Profit - My target place is at the +10% level, of a.b. This execution can take place at any time the threshold is achieved.
• Switch directions - My complete currency trade must be following the stated trend. When it switches, I must therefore switch also. This would take place only at an end-of-day.
• Re-entry - Upon exits, I readjust my position sizing, accordingly, and immediately re enter.

EOD numbers

• The end-of-day currency data is what I follow
• Consisting of what the stated trend is

No restrictions

• No predetermined placed stops or targets attached to the trade

Which particular complete currency?

Now this is where we stop.

For the most part, this whole year, this has been the way I’ve traded. All of that up there. I’ve had some good success with it. And some failure with it also. But the biggest factor, in how much success this brings, all of this comes down to this—

—WHO?—
—WHICH CURRENCY?—
Trust me. There’s a difference between them all.

Well, you know, Journal, all of what I did this year. It’s all documented. But, I’m sure you remember the journey. How I started out with the one particular currency. The JPY. Yeah, back in March, boy, I seen some huge results. But as the months drew on, the slippage that comes with the switching of the trends was simply too much. It’s just not that profitable. With this currency.

Then I remember adding on the AUD. Found some good results with them. More on them later.

Then I remember starting to add into the line up the other currencies. Which eventually led up to what I’ve been doing this month. Which is having a specific trading account per each individual currency to trade. And that should about bring it all up to date. I’ve been getting some results this month. Not necessarily that good, but results nonetheless.

Let me skip to the quick. I’m gonna show you some of the back testing that reveals a lot about these particular currencies. You’ll see the differences between them all.

Ok. Well. First off, what is back testing anyway?
I know, stupid question. But it needs to be asked.

Back testing is plugging your system into what has happened in the past. How the prices have behaved in the past. It’s finding out the results of what would happen if you would trade this exact way. Now we all know that what has happened before will not necessarily happen in the same way in the future. For the most part. But there are some things that we can depend on happening again. Like…for instance…the trend. There will be a trend, in the future. Some kind of trend. Sure. That’s guaranteed. We don’t know is for how long it will last though.

Also it’s awesome that we can know, for sure, that it will be one of only 2 possible trends. Either a bull market or a bear market. That helps a lot. Right? Narrowing it down. Wonderful.

But, what helps out a whole lot, is when you have found a way to measure the trend. And along with that, a way to see when it changes. Seeing the strength of the particular trend is, I think, priceless. We don’t know what’s gonna happen in the future, but, I think, the best we can do is measure it, monitor it, and inevitably…follow it!

So, let’s look at the back testing that I’ve done. You’re gonna see:

• The daily results
• What trend it is
• When it changes
• Which currency we are talking about (their differences)

Let’s start out with the JPY.
But first, an explanation of how I track each currency.

Here’s what the month of March looked like for the JPY.

My data only goes back to Mar. So this is where we start. What kind of results can we get from this?

• Daily individual results. If you trade this complete currency (7 JPY pairs) for one complete day, on the 9th (being bull JPY), you would end up with 1,665 pips.
• Running results. Holding this trade from the beginning up to Mar 24th the results would be 1,064 pips; for both the perfect system and the day late system. They’re the same because there hasn’t been any change in trend that whole time.

Now the differences between both of those systems all come down to the day that the trend changes. See there on Mar 25th? I colored in that daily result. 468 pips. I add that number onto the perfect system’s running total (1,532). But I subtract that number onto the day late system’s running total (596). 1064 - 468 = 596

See. When the day of the 25th started, my trade was running in a bull market (long JPY). Then EOD came and I found out that it switched and resulted in a bear market. Therefore the pip results change, right?

Well, therein lies the difference between those 2 systems. You just cannot know beforehand when the trend is gonna change. But most days it will go unchanged. So then…what are the results at the end of the month.

Month long results are: perfect system = 548 pips. Day late system = -388 pips. Ok. That’s nice. Right? But that’s what I’m gonna be looking at, moving forward from here. But…the numbers are all there to see. Like, for instance, seeing that during this month how the running results spiked up to 3,257 pips (on the 18th). And then dropped ever since.

Now. This is the whole entire reason why I’m keeping track of this. To be able to answer some of these questions.

• Over time, is this proving to be a profitable way to trade?
• More specifically, are there enough pips to be made that make up for the loss of pips because of that change in trend day?
• Is there credence, or having an edge, for holding onto trades through an entire scope of a trend?
• Is it possible to be collecting pips this way by perpetually being in the market?

Now. More specifically, you need to know that I’m not counting on the perfect systems results. There is a reason why I want to know that, but for trading purposes, it’s the day late system that matters.

The day late system is easy to follow! What’s so hard about finding out what the stated market is, and then to position accordingly.

Well, I better cut this and send it.
I’ll come back with results. Like all kinds of results. Across the board. And will give you my ideal ANCHOR TRADE.

I’m on it.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Journal.
Here we go.

I should throw up this pic again, cause it explains what I look at.

Well, I gave you a good intro into what my back testing data will show. Let’s continue on then. With the JPY.

You seen Mar results. Well, let’s fast forward to the present. From Mar through to the present results. That should be enough time to get a sense of what would work and what won’t work. In fact, I do like the questions that I came up with on that last post. Need to put them up again. This is very important.

@MikeWolski

• Over time, is this proving to be a profitable way to trade?
• More specifically, are there enough pips to be made that make up for the loss of pips because of that change in trend day?
• Is there credence, or having an edge, for holding onto trades through an entire scope of a trend?
• Is it possible to be collecting pips this way by perpetually being in the market?

My excel sheet, which encompasses all of my data, is very large. I can’t possibly be able to show you all that I want to from it. I’ll leave the link at the end of this to be able to see all of it. So, all I can do now is show some ending results. From March 2nd to present.

• Day late system produces -3,689 pips.
• The highest accumulated amount of pips at one point was +3,257 pips (Mar 18th).
• The lowest accumulated amount of pips at one point was -5,522 pips (May 22nd). Could be called the draw down.
• March 27th was the last time the running % amount was in the positive. The rest of the time, since, was running a negative amount.

So. What can I say about this then? This is not the currency in which I can trade this system and come out profitable in the end. 3 days short of 7 months, with these results, won’t do it.

Like I said, all of these currencies have different results. Let’s move on to another complete currency result.

The CAD.

• The day late system produces -6,598 pips.
• The highest accumulated amount of pips at one point was +3,596 pips (Mar 9th).
• The lowest accumulated amount of pips at one point was -7,670 pips (July 6th). DD.
• March 23rd was the last time the running % amount was in the positive. Since then, been negative.

What can we say then?
Again. This is another currency in which this system doesn’t work for. You just will not be able to, over time, collect any pips.

Why?

Well, these are some of the factors which deem it ineffective.

• Switching trends too often. The trends don’t last long enough.
• The amount of pips during a switch are too great to be made up.
• Possibly range more than trend. That’s a hard one to determine.

Let’s move on to another one.
The EUR.

• The day late system produces -3,025 pips.
• The highest accumulated amount of pips at one point was +5,944 pips (Apr 29th).
• The lowest accumulated amount of pips at one point was -3,822 pips (July 13th). DD.
• June 5th was the last time the running % amount was in the positive. Since then, been negative.

What can be said about them? Same thing. No go, in the long run.
We do have some probable points in time for this to possibly work. Look. From March all the way through June 5th they were running in the positive numbers. Maybe this can be custom tailored to make it work in a specific way, like only trading this at a certain, defined time. But not as a perpetually running, longstanding amount of time. That’s all.

Moving on.
The CHF.

• The day late system produces -698 pips.
• The highest accumulated amount of pips at one point was +3,316 pips (April 29th). Matched the EUR regarding that.
• The lowest accumulated amount of pips at one point was -1,008 pips (Sep 21st). DD.
• The CHF was running a positive % amount the entire time, all the way up until Aug 26th. September was the first month they really dipped into negative territory. Not all that much negative either.

What to say about the CHF?
Not too shabby. I think they need more back testing data for a better analysis. But for this amount of time, I’m gonna say it’s more unreliable than for proven. Close though. Definitely worthy of some custom tailor work.

Moving on.
The USD.

• The day late system produces -39 pips.
• The highest accumulated amount of pips at one point was +3,627 pips (Mar 19th).
• The lowest accumulated amount of pips at one point was -3,224 pips (May 22nd). DD.

The USD can be characterized as one that goes through periods of mediocre times. Nothing too great. And nothing too bad. In one word, extreme less. Look. During that blow up back in the middle of March, the USD didn’t do all that. Take a look.

What we’re most concerned about here, actually the only thing we’re concerned about, is what the system produces. The pips. Remember, this was an unprecedented move. And this is all we got from the Dollar? Man…I’m not impressed. Sure. Was a good up move. But it, pretty much, dropped just as fast. Look at those 4 days (Mar 24 - Mar 27). It drops -579 pips, then -555 pips, then -1159 pips, then -867 pips, all consecutively! Then on the 30th that was a positive 399 pips (that’s a negative result if you were bearish). Basically, it simply retraced everything. What I’m looking for is the best trending one. It’s not this one.

That comes with the territory of being the worlds reserve currency. Needs to be predictable, with no real swings. Comparatively speaking.

Moving on.
The GBP.

• The day late system produces +291 pips.
• The highest accumulated amount of pips at one point was +2,472 pips (Mar 19th).
• The lowest accumulated amount of pips at one point was -3,517 pips (July 22nd). DD.
• Other than a few days in the middle of Mar. & these last couple weeks in Sep, they have produced negative amount of pips. Basically, it’s abnormal for the GBP to be producing positive pips.

What can I say about the GBP?
Too risky. I would need to do a lot more back testing on them. Again, like the CHF and the EUR, I would need to come up with a custom tailored particular way of trading them. Just not in this way of letting them perpetually run and collect the pips in the market. Nope.

Down to the last 2.

The NZD.

• The day late system produces +140 pips.
• The highest accumulated amount of pips at one point was +2,320 pips (Mar 19th).
• The lowest accumulated amount of pips at one point was -3,512 pips (May 22nd). DD.
• Similar characteristics to the GBP. But better. They’ve spent much more positive running pip results back on Mar. And have been spending most of the time since Aug up to the present in positive territory. Not too deep into the positive, but in the hundreds though.

What to say about the NZD.
Does warrant more back testing data. Has the potential for some custom making.

Finally.

Let’s look at the AUD.
Let me point out, that there’s a reason why I chose this last. Compare these numbers to what I have shown above.

• The day late system produces +6,053 pips.
• The highest accumulated amount of pips at one point was +8,365 pips (Jun 8th).
• The lowest accumulated amount of pips at one point was -929 pips (Mar 4th). DD. 3rd day into this study.
• The first 5 days they were negative. The rest of the time they produced positive results. Very positive.

What can I say about the AUD?
There’s no doubt in my mind that over time, this currency collects pips. And with very little draw down.

Take a look at this chart.

This is the birds eye view of the AUD. From Mar to the present. Those are the running totaled amount of pips, taken on a daily basis. Also, if it’s a green dot, they’re in a bull trend. Red dot the AUD was in a bear trend. Now, technically speaking, you can see what the Draw Down would be on any down slope point, along the way. And, conversely, any upward moving slope constitutes addition of pips. But since I let my trades run perpetually, I’m only concerned with what the results are over time.

Let me remind you how I trade.
I go from take profit to take profit.

When I take profit, I’m up 10% on my account. Then I immediately get back in with a higher position size. Conversely, when I need to switch directions (meaning, that I will have lost some, negative amount) I will immediately get back in, but it’s with a smaller position size.

See. There’s a difference between collecting pips, and growing my account balance. Big difference.

If I’m assured that, over time, this currency will accumulate pips via this strategy, then given the fact that I can keep adding onto my position sizing should spell profitability.

I wish I could correlate an amount of pip addition to a % of my account addition. Know what I mean? Then I could find out exactly how much I could expect to produce over the course of some time. Called expectancy.

Anyway.

I think I’m gonna discontinue trading every currency and stick with this one. But, I do believe that I’ve found my ANCHOR TRADE.

I have some more thinking to do about this before the month turns over. Whether to demo trade the others or not. We’ll see.

Alright Journal.
Thanks for listening.
Mike

MY 2020 NUMBERS.xlsx (921.1 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.
Well, it’s still nice and early now. Still dark. Boy…do I love it when it stays dark longer. Basically, dark equates to quietness. And I like quietness.

Got up early this morning. I am taking advantage of my weekend morning times. Still. Cause I’ve been on fire, for some reason, with my business. I mean, the ideas have been flowing lately. And well, you know, you just got to go with it. Needless to say, these very early morning weekend hours are my favorite. I get a lot done.

And speaking of that…Journal, I’ve made some changes. It wasn’t long after that last post, last weekend, that I discovered something. And have been pursuing it every since.

It does figure, that this came at a time (all of that last post) when I realized that my system was working only with the AUD. I’m sure you remember that. I showed the proof.

Well, you’re not gonna believe this, but I found a better way.

Great. Now you’re gonna go on changing things, and messing things all up. Huh?

Yeah well, when the numbers, back testing numbers that is, show me a better way, what can I do? Ignore it?

Look. Honestly. This has been something I’ve been encountering over and over again. Plus…I’m not talking about something completely different either. I guess you can accurately call this an evolutionary evolvement of what I’ve been doing the whole time. It’s the next step. In the process.

Let me explain.

The trend.

What all does the trend consist of?

• A stated, or defined, state of what the trend is. Bull or Bear.
• There is an increasing into the trend.
• There is a decreasing out of the trend.
• A changing of that trend.

Look. This is stuff that’s not too often thought about, but I believe it’s true. Let’s look at each of those points.

Bull or Bear market

It can’t be anything else. It’ll be either riding strong or weak. Right? Long or short. That’s the only way you can trade something anyway. But, someone could say that it’s ranging. Sure. I understand that. Directionless. Meaning it’s bouncing off of support and resistance levels. Maybe even coiling up. In other words, price is consolidating until a breakout happens. Sure, that’s a possibility. But, you can’t get around the fact that just before that happens, it came from being either in a bull or bear market to begin with. That ranging talk is more about how price action goes at the end of a trend. It’s a stalling action, that’s all. I just don’t count ranging as a defined market classification.

Things are either going up or they are coming down. Bottom line.

Increasing or Decreasing in the trend

Basically, we all know that price action is either trending or counter trending, hence increasing or decreasing. This might be one of those things we don’t always want to admit. If we’re in the trend, correctly, then why are there times when we are losing? Shouldn’t we always be making money when we’re correctly in the trend?

It’s not true. There’s a thing called retracement. It’s that part that we just don’t like. Everybody wishes the market can go in one direction. Straight. But then we eventually learn that Mr. Market operates in the zig zag way. Back and forth.

Sorry for the obvious talk here.

But…there’s something going on here when it increases and decreases within the trend. And we’re finally gonna get to what I’ve been realizing.

There’s this thing called Momentum.

• Force or speed of movement; impetus, as of a physical object or course of events.

In the market, I believe it relates more to the fact of price behaving in a similar manner for a time. Basically, it’s how much time price is moving in the same direction. I don’t know what else to call it. Cause it’s more specific that what trend means.

This is what I’m after. Let me show you what I mean.

The AUD, back in the month of March.
Bear trend… noted by the red color.
Strength of trend… noted by the number, under AUD, in the red part.
Daily pip results…noted on that last row. Under everything.
Momentum…noted in the second row from the top. The same amount of time the color stays it’s particular color (red, or green), is how much momentum is taking place. Ignore what those numbers mean. It’s the color that is important. Nothing else.

Now. Just look at the second row down. From Mar 5th (first red one), all the way up to Mar 18th the momentum was bearish. You can see that by either noticing that it’s a red color, or by seeing the strength of it’s trend getting higher (increasing numbers). Basically, that was all trending price action.

But then after the 18th, the strength of the trend went the other way, counter trended. The stated numbers all went lower. And then finally it officially changed trends. To a (stated) bull trend.

So then, what does this mean?
Well, let’s add up what the pip counts were during those times.
Mar 5th - Mar 18th = 6,245 pips.
Mar 19th - Mar 27th = -2,287 pips.

If you were short the AUD (that whole time), that’ll be the outcome during those particular days. And then, you can see that after the trend officially changes, that the momentum continues on through.

Basically, what I’m saying here is that during this AUD bear market time, you had the trending pip results (positive) and also the counter trending pip results (negative). Until it finally changed over.

I’m gonna show the running results from my original system. Which is, staying in the trend until it changes.

The second last row is the perfect system, and the last row is the day late system. The only thing that separates them is when the stated trend finally changed (Mar 30th). But anyway, that’s there running totals. It’s just each day’s total pip count added onto the next (hence running).

Ok. That’s nice. What do I got? 2,136 pips. Not bad.

Well, how about a showing of this new system I just got done explaining. I guess I’m gonna call it the momentum system.

Third row from the top is the trend strength. Same as above.
Also on that row is the color of the stated trend. Red for bear, green for bull. All that is the same as above.
Then the fourth row down (in white), is simply the pip results for that day. And that’ll be straight up what the results are. It doesn’t matter which direction I’m trading in, that’s the results.
Then the fifth row is the direction I would be trading in. Green for bull, red for bear.
The last 2 rows are what my trading results would be. First is that days results, and the last row is the running results.

Comparatively. What do we got?
No comparison.
7,150 pips.
I’m not regarding what the stated trend is. Just going with the momentum. That’s the momentum of what the strength is, not what the pip count is. I’m not following what the previous days pip count was, but what the previous days momentum of strength was.

It should be obvious what the stated trend is compared to what direction I’m trading in. It’s all in the colors. But look there…towards the end…you can see how I can get in on the bull market before it changes over to it. There was 6 days of bull market going on before it switched. Which translates into positive pips, instead of negative ones.

Look. It won’t always go this way. Trust me. I know. That’s why I went back and back tested out this data over the same amount of time. Did the comparison. And that’s why I’m definitely switching systems.

Check out the total results from Mar up until the present. Comparatively.

From Mar thru Sep these are the results.

• Perfect system = 13,731 pips
• Momentum system = 10,355 pips
• Day late system = 5,239 pips

For Sep only, you can see that this momentum system performed twice as well as the perfect system. So yes, at times, this system is much better than the perfect system (which I didn’t think could happen). Remember, it’s impossible to be able to follow the perfect system! But it’s good to know what those results are anyway. And this is why…to compare against any other system. Like this one. But, over the long haul (those 7 months), the perfect system proves better. You got to admit, this is a close match to it. And actually, it’s twice as better than the day late system.

Well, I’ve been doing much back testing with this. Even with the other currencies. Well, that task is still on going.

So Journal, I clued you in on what I’ve been working on. And guess what…moving forward, this is how I’m trading. I’m keeping track of this.

I’m doing a lot of the same. Keeping a separate trading account on each of the 8 currencies.

The next time I come in here I’ll have to show you the results of how the month of September went, with that last system. Basically, I’ll put a gift wrap around what I wanted to find out at the beginning of the month, to how it ended. Have results.

It’s all a progression, Journal.
And it continues.
Mike

MY 2020 NUMBERS.xlsx (952.3 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

Well, it’s the weekend. And this is what I’ve been looking forward to.
It’s early.
Dark.
Quiet.
Getting some work done.

Boy…have I been busy, Journal. I got a new system. Been trading it this month. And let’s see. What can I say about it, so far?

Very interesting.

I don’t know yet. It’s just too early to tell. There’s some aspects that I find troublesome, about it. So, it’s not like I think this is the holy grail. But, I do have to say, it’s probably much better than my last system. The back testing data that I’m coming up with is far…far superior than what I’ve been doing. But, I kind of have a feeling that I might have to tweek it in some way. I’m just not too sure how though, now. It’s just way too early at this point.

In regards to my holy grail. My holy grail trade will be my anchor trade. I’ve talked about this, and what it means to me. But…to be honest about this, I’m not there yet. Meaning, I haven’t found it. In total, that is.

It’s still coming together. It’s like the pieces are arriving, bit by bit. And it’s taking such a long time. What can I say? Slowly but surely, it is. When I think about the whole thing, I guess I should be happy that at least I’m progressing. And I think that is what’s most important.

Progression.

I’m sure there are some new traders out there (whoever reads this stuff of mine) might be thinking that after 7 long years of striving…anguishing…yearning…hoping…praying…for some real headway in this business venture of mine, that I would have made it by now. You know, gotten past the figuring it all out phase. Gone on to teaching young traders. After having established my business on firm footing.

Nope.

What can I say.
It’s the journey that keeps on continuing.

Maybe it’s because I’m such a perfectionist.

Maybe, God’s timing, for these things to get accomplished, is further out than what I’m hoping for.

In any case, I’m not distraught about it all. Actually, I’m perfectly content doing what I do on this journey. As long as it’s with Him. And I’m sure, in due time, He’ll bring me to where ever I’m supposed to arrive to.

And where’s that?

Oh…how about a self sufficient, self sustaining, growing, trading business.

We’ll just have to see how it all plays out.
His will, will be done.

Anyway.

Don’t worry Journal. I’ll spill the beans, more on how I’m trading. This new system of mine. It’s so very interesting!

But first, let’s take a look at what’s going on in the market (I’m sorry I didn’t do this last weekend). I need to come up with the correct story, narrative, about what’s been happening.

Well, where do we begin?
How about how this week, and month, in total.

Top table, is the month running. Bottom table, is individual daily results.
Points to be made.

• CAD most bought currency this month so far +6.49%.
• JPY biggest outlier (most trending currency) -12.90%.
• Way more positive ending currencies than negative ones.
• Tues was a complete counter trending trading day (is that why they call it “turn around Tuesday”?
• Wed was a big divergence day between the AUD, NZD. Came back together afterwards.
• USD, JPY have been running together, as normal.
• EUR, CHF have been running together also. Which is their normal.
• CAD, I’m thinking, have been more of a commodity currency than a USD follower. Oil has been moving higher lately.

Speaking of that, let’s take a look at the broader market. Here’s the S&P, Oil, and Gold.

So yeah, you can see that the last 5 daily candles, of Oil, have been up. That’s probably why the CAD has been bought up a lot. Right?

And so, the US stock market is on it’s way up…again. Well, this past week put a stop to the drop. It sure did look like we were on the way down. Meaning, a bear market might be forming. Actually, it’s been 2 straight weeks (10 trading days) of upward movement. Interesting.

And gold. What can we deduce about that? Well, it’s elevated. Meaning, there’s quite a bit of safe haven buying still happening. Gold usually trades as either being a commodity or a currency. In other words, if it’s bought up as a currency, it’ll go higher as being a safe haven asset. If it’s bought up as a commodity, the metals industry is being moving up.

That’s kind of tough to understand. Gold, as being a commodity, is like seeing risk-on sentiment prevail. But as a safe haven currency, it’ll be like a risk-off sentiment. It’s kind of hard to know exactly why it’s moving. And since it’s bought up in USD’s, it could just be the substitute of replacing the USD with Gold, in a portfolio.

I don’t know. The way I see it, since we are in such a low interest rate environment, the higher Gold goes, the more of a safe haven status it’s in. And so, basically, I think it spells bad news for the broader market the higher Gold goes.

Look. I’m no expert. I’d rather talk about why a currency is moving, than these other things. Don’t get me wrong, this other stuff is important. Very important. I’m just not that adept with these other macro factors.

Let’s move on.
We kind of need to keep in mind how this year has been playing out. So, what’s the latest on our currencies, in the yearly perspective?

I’ve been telling you, about the EUR. They’re still being bought up. Right? I mean, along the way, they’ll have their buying days. Surely, over the course of time, they are more bought than any other currency, in the perspective of this year. By a lot, mind you.

And how about the CAD? Their having a good month, remember? But not so much in the context of this year. Their the most sold currency (-36.27%). Their down there with the JPY (-34.85%).

I don’t know what to say about the commodity currencies. There’s a disconnect between the AUD, and the NZD (+20.80%, -22.89%). I’m sure there’s a reason their like that. I’m not gonna pretend I know why. I don’t know. All I know is that this is not normal. It’s more of a divergence thing than their normal. So be it. The way I see it, this is their trend. I mean, it is, what it is. I won’t make any kind of assumptions that they should be trading together. They are not. It’s that simple. Journal, you should know by now how much this year I’ve mentioned about them being like this. And I’ve accepted it. I will have trades running in which the AUD is moving strong and the NZD is moving weak at the same time. That’s all.

Ok. That’s nice.
What else is going on.

How about a summary.

We’ve just started a new quarter. The 4th quarter. That up there was how the 3rd quarter ended. What can we say then?

• The USD got hammered that quarter (-25.79%). Most sold currency.
• The JPY right down there with them.
• The EUR most bought up currency. And should be noted how much of a divergence there is between them and the CHF, that quarter. Oh, I’m sure there’s good reasons for that (you know who I will blame, right?).
• There’s no evidence of the safe havens being bought up more than the risk-on currencies. It’s still slanted towards risk-on. Towards the end of Sep there was indication of safe haven buying…but it didn’t carry through. Maybe it was all end of month, quarter, squaring up of accounts.

Moving forward. What should we be thinking?

Uh…I don’t know. How about following the plan.
What plan?
Uh…
Ok.
I’ll spill.
I’ll cut this short, and come back with my new system.
Don’t worry…I’m gonna be following something. I’ll show you exactly what. Coming right up.
Mike

MY 2020 NUMBERS.xlsx (1.0 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Journal.
Here we go.
I think I gave you some of this last weekend. But, I’ll go over it again.

How do I trade?

• Complete Currency Trading (basket of 7 trades)
• Follow the momentum, not the stated trend
• Take profit target is 10% increase (possible at any time of day)
• Trades continually run in the market
• End of Day numbers determine direction
• End of Day is when I would perform any change in direction on my trades, if dictated
• Separate trading account for each currency (tracking viability per each currency)

I’ve done a lot of back testing on this system, per each currency. I only have from March up to date completed so far. But, the first 2 months of the year data is gonna be completed kind of shortly.

I guess I should start with what the system is. Here’s a step by step explanation.

I track each currency’s trend. The stated trend. Been doing this all year. No change with this. Let’s take the USD for example.

Last day of the month of Sep, into Oct.
The stated trend is bull, right? Noted on the right, in green. And it’s bull strength. They ended the month being 84 (pips) in a bull trend. That’s nice. Well, at EOD Oct 1st, that changes to 29 bull trend. What happened? Well, the stated trend stayed bull, but the strength decreased. If you add up each of the 7 USD pairs those are the totals. All I’m doing here is finding the aggregate (sum totals). The details are there, along with the total.

Well, what I was doing, was staying in the stated bull market. Cause it stayed green. Bull. But now, the only difference is that I will be following the momentum, instead of the stated trend. That would have changed.

Let’s look at my new tables.

Continuing on with the 30th to the 1st. Since the strength of 84 to 29 goes lower, that means the momentum is decreasing, right? Well, that means, then, that I will be short the USD at End of Day Oct 1st. And the results for Oct 2nd is shown. The USD complete currency results for Oct 2nd ended up being +4 pips. See it there in the white row? Well, down a little lower will be the results for my trading. Since I was short the USD, that means I lost 4 pips that day (noted by the -4). That is added onto the running total, which is beneath it 9,795.
Then continuing on. End of day Oct 2nd comes. What do I see? Strength of 29 bull down to strength of 1 bull is lower right? Still decreasing. So then, I’m gonna stay short. No change to my trading. It’s running USD short still. So, how did I get that 1 bull figure again?

Add 'em up.
Each of the 7 USD pairs. Which, actually, is nothing but the pip spread between the 5 and 9 ema lines, on each of those pairs.
And so, let’s continue on. I’ll put up that table again.

Oct 5th comes. EOD comes. Results are shown. Which is :

• Stated trend changes to bear (red)
• Strength of 38
• Pip results for the USD was -184 pips. It was a down day.

But, due to me being short USD, that gave me +184 pips for my trades results. And that added onto the running total, ending up as 9,979 pips.

See, I don’t care what the stated trend is, anymore. But what I do care about, is in what direction (momentum) it’s traveling in. Basically, whether the strength of the trend is increasing or decreasing. That’s what I’m going by. You can plainly see how the trend was coming down before the stated trend actually changed. But…I do think it’s important to know what the stated trend always is. It’s what market they are presently in. Bull or bear.

Now look what happens. On EOD Oct 6th. Results are :

• Stated trend stays bear (red)
• Strength of that bear trend climbs up to 18 (stronger currency not weaker).
• Daily pip results for the USD was +355 pips
• My trading results were -355 pips (cause I was short)

Now, because of those results, that tells me to change from going short to long the USD (38 to 18). Basically, that’s a deeper bear to a lesser bear. So therefore, I switch my trades from bear to bull on that EOD 6th.

And well, that’s the idea. Each and every day. Whatever the flow is, that’s what direction I should be having my trades in. Changed at every EOD. I just started this Oct 1st. But if I would have been trading this since March 1st, then the results would be that last row. 9,913 pips. Now, what’s 9913 minus 9,729 ? Answer = +184 pips. That’s what I got running so far this month. Not all that much, but at least it’s in the positive. And also you can see that for the EOD on Friday leads me to continue on being short the USD, when it comes time for the open. (22 bear market to 98 bear market = more bearish).

The CAD was the best resulting currency for me this month so far.

• +667 pips
• Not resulting so well from March to the present (-2,475 pips)

Ok then. How about the results of the other currencies?
I’ll go from the worst to the best.
From March to present.

And there it is. Again. The AUD. Performing awesome with this system. That’s 10,059 pips accumulated since March. If you remember, regarding my other system, the AUD performed the best with that one, as well.

I’m gonna keep track of the most important data that I can. And when it comes to this system, I would like to know how viable it is. So. Why not take the aggregate sum total of all these 8 currencies?

I mean, I just want to know, over time, will this system prove profitable. And just how profitable. Will I have to depend on only the good months that might come along? Can I trust this system over a length of time? Questions like this.

Well, here is what the total aggregate comes out to be.

That’s every currency traded this way. All totaled up. For each of those months. You should be able to see that this month, so far, is losing pips (17,696 - 14,970). But the month is not over yet. Anyway.
We can see that in that monster month of March, huge gains. But, I got way more back testing to do. As I said, I’m getting close to getting the rest of this year (Jan, Feb) done. It’s what I’ve been working on lately.

I’m currently trading this way. I’m still back testing this. But, I still am trying to answer the questions of whether I can trust this system, etc.

I can tell you one thing though. This is proving much better than my last system.

Progress.
That’s what I want.

Alright Journal. I’ll keep you updated on how this goes.
In the days to come I’ll get more detailed on how my trades actually perform.

Thanks for listening.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

Let’s take a look at what’s been happening in the market.
Here’s a look.

This is a bird’s eye view.
Each column represents totals of that week. So, we have the last 3 complete weeks of results here. And so, what can we say then?

• JPY got tired of being last, and came in first this week. But we’re not looking at a whole lot. Just more buying than any other.
• USD rides along side them (it’s the normal). And we should throw in some CNY also. Those 3 currencies always ride together (either being bought up or being sold around the same amount). But, last weeks results showed something completely different. The CNY bucked the normal.
• AUD. You should be able to see their trend. They’ve been coming down. But this week make that very clear. That -14% pales anything else that happened, comparatively speaking.
• Bottom line…the safe havens have finally made it to the top. They’re the most bought up currencies. But not by all that much though. The real story goes to how much the AUD was being sold off. That was the consensus this past week.

This could be the start of a new trend.
We’ll have to see.

How about some other perspectives.

This month.

Now this should give more scope to what’s going on with the safe havens (JPY, USD). All they’re doing is coming off the bottom of the barrel. There’s plenty of room to come up. Right? I mean, they haven’t even broke above into the positive for the month. So, we’ll just have to watch this.

The CAD has been strong this month. Wavered (retraced) some this week. We’ll have to see if they are coming down…or is just taking a little breather. I don’t know, that little boost on Friday just might mean something.

The CHF. No doubt they are elevated. It’s their safe haven status that’s doing it. Surely it isn’t a higher EUR (which they tend to follow). But, I bet you that their central bank is hard at work trying to keep them from being too bought up. What a battle they have on their hands. I guess it’s always been this way for them though. shrug

The GBP. Well, what can I say about them? It’s just back and forth, and going nowhere. Their just not trending in any one direction (I’m sure this is frustrating for a Pound trend trader).

The NZD. There was a divergence happening between them and the AUD. But this week made it clear who won out. The NZD dropped on down to the AUD. They are being sold off together now. Finally.

How about the bigger picture look. We need to keep all of this into perspective.
The yearly running totals.

• The EUR has been the most bought up currency this year. By a whole lot. 60.25% Compare that to anything else. It’s a lot.
• The USD has been a net seller this year. That is saying a lot considering how much they were bought up during the explosion back in March. And remember all the talk about the EUR to overtake the USD, maybe? Well, from what I’m seeing, looks to be heading that way, huh? It’s just something to keep in mind, that’s all.
• The CAD. Even though they are having a good month, this month, they are being sold off this year. No other currency is being sold more than them. The numbers are right there. They are -34.98% against all of the other currencies. That’s the outcome is you were to add up, every day of this year, every CAD pair.
• What would you think…between the two…would we have more of a safe haven bias or a risk-on bias, for the year? Surely it’s been a mix. But I wouldn’t say we had more of a safe haven bias than a risk-on bias. If anything, risk-on currencies prevailed more than risk-off currencies. We all know what happened this year. We took a huge hit. But then went on a V-shaped recovery. And ever since, we’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop. And it hasn’t yet. But, I don’t think we’re anywhere near the end of the story. It’s still being written. To be continued.

Those are the mentionables. And the only reason why I bring this up, is because it’s what’s been the prevailing trend. The market knows, and is aware, of this stuff. And so we need to be also.

Alright Journal.
I’m gonna get going.
Been working on some stuff. When I get to the bottom of it, I’ll clue you in on it. Very interesting stuff.

Mike

For anyone who wants to diagnose 'em.
MY 2020 NUMBERS.xlsx (1.1 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

Let’s see what’s going on in the market.
As always, the best context is in the week.

The top table is the individual daily results, per that day. The bottom table is the running totals as the week played out. So, what do we got?

• The EUR was the most bought currency this week +5.60%. They had 3 most bought days. That’s a lot.
• The GBP had a monster day on Wednesday +8.50%. Then retraced most of that, in the rest of the week.
• The USD was the most sold currency this week -7.10%. Wow. Just compare them to the EUR (white, yellow). Their complete opposites. That’s very interesting to me. That would have made the pair EUR/USD the biggest mover this week, right? But let’s remember, that what I’m doing here is finding out what the complete currencies are up to. That’s the aggregate amount. Their 8 pairs added up. It’s a truer picture of what’s happening to each individual currency.
• The Comms (AUD,NZD) are moving higher than the safe havens (USD,JPY,CHF). Also, the Comms are running more in concert with each other.
• Speaking of that, let’s look at the confluence or divergence aspect. EUR & CHF running in confluence. Both trading higher. The USD & JPY, for the most part running in confluence. Lower this week. The CAD is running more with the USD this week. As opposed to with the other Comms. This is becoming more the normal. That trio was a thing of the past. Maybe it’s because of the new trade deal (USMCA) or something like that, that got passed a little while ago. Anyway. The Pound, well, they march to their own beat. One day up, the next down. I think their impossible to trade. Well, for any kind of trend trading anyway.

That’s nice.

In what other context can we look at?
How about what’s happening in this month.

That’s the running totals as the month is playing out.
I’ll tell ya what I see.

• The AUD seems to be hitting a bottom and bouncing back. Ever since the 20th anyway. And the NZD is moving up also.
• There’s no real strong numbers here. Meaning, the market is probably coiling up & consolidating before a big move.
• The safe havens are not being bought up (USD,JPY). Well, the CHF is. But I’m thinking their following the EUR moreso than anything.

We need to remember what happened last month. That was a month of safe haven buying. Look.

You can see how the month ended with the USD, JPY pretty much being the only ones in the positive (sans the CNY).

The bottom line is, I think the market is waiting for something. Something big to ride. One way or the other. Either some serious risk on or some serious risk off. Surely, our elections is gonna tilt that one way or the other. That’ll be on Nov 3rd. That’s what I think the market is waiting for.

Well, we’ll just have to wait and see how it plays out.
I’ll be watching.
Alright Journal, I’m gonna cut this.
I should come back and show you the things I’ve been realizing and changing, regarding my trading.
We’ll see.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

Let’s see. Where do I begin?
The reason being, is because I do have much going on. Been extremely busy with my business. I gave you a little heads up on that. But yeah, I definitely feel that I’m progressing. I’m just wondering when I should spill the beans.

Do we see what’s going on in the market?

Or check out my new indicator?

Both are interesting.

Well, since the month just ended, we should see what the field looks like.

This is a snap shot of what happened this past week. The last week of the month. And these are single, all-by-itself daily results. What’s important to note?

• The USD - Most bought currency Monday. Retraced half of that the next day. Back up again the next day, with the JPY. In fact, all safe havens were most bought up on Wednesday.
• None of the currencies are really moving much. These %'s are on the low side, for daily totals. So, basically, there’s not much to mention here. Except how their relating to each other.
• The AUD took the other end of it on Wednesday. They’ve been the most sold off currency lately (although we’re not talking by a whole lot).

Here’s a little clearer picture of what happened this week.

This the running totals for the week. And we can see here that the USD was the most bought up currency, ending with +8.11% against all of the currencies. With the JPY tailing them. This is normal. Them two, for the most part, always run together (I’ve only said this a million times). All this means is, the market prefers it when one is bought the other will likely be bought up also. Same the other way (sold).

This is the same with the EUR and the CHF. And we can see that they’ve been selling this week.

The AUD and the NZD have had some divergence, but in the end is biased to the downside. Basically, the AUD is the frontrunner.

I don’t want to make a big deal about this, but the CNY has been, again, on the demand side of things. Their being bought up (I’ve mentioned this multiple times also). But just know that what’s normal with them, is the same thing that happens with the USD,JPY marriage. When the USD goes one way, the CNY likes to go that way also. Hey…what can I say…I’ve run these numbers for some time now, and it’s what happens.

I’d say this can be compartmentalized as either converging or diverging. What happens in the market as normal would be a converging action. And what happens in the market as abnormal would be a diverging action. We just don’t know for how long these actions take place. But hey, at least we can boil it down to these 2 things though, right?

That’s nice.

What happened this month?

Running daily totals.

• The CAD fell apart this month.
• The AUD was the most sold off currency this month.
• The USD, JPY at mid month, started to lift off.
• The NZD tries to separate from the AUD, but to no avail.
• Again, these numbers are on the low side. I mean, for a month, we should be seeing someone, either strong or weak, in the 20 %'s, for a minimum. Not happening. I’d say, we’re winding up for something big. Beware.

How about another look. I just put this together, since you can’t see all of my data at one time. Here’s how the previous months been.

We have monthly results here. It’s a kind of birds eye view of what’s been happening in the market lately. So, what can we say then?

• The risk-on currencies have been selling off, since the summer.
• The safe haven currencies are getting stronger.

I guess I should throw in the yearly running totals.

• The EUR dropped down some this week, but still holds onto the top spot (+59.20%). I’m sure they’ll end the year as the most bought up currency. Right? No one else is close to their figure.
• The CAD slips more to where they’ve been. Last. The most sold off currency this year. This is interesting to me.

Yeah. I thought so. Check this out.

This was last years ending totals. And yep. The CAD was very strong last year. Was #1 for a lot of the year. Slipped towards the end. But, you have to see this as comparatively speaking. 17.04% is not all that much, but it’s way more than everyone else though (except the GBP). I have the data. Last year was the year for both the Pound and the CAD. They traded top spots all year long. Anyway.

This year is the opposite. And should explain why the CAD is dragging bottom. It just happens that way. When things are good, their good. When their not, their not. Well, I guess it depends on what you consider good. Maybe they want it lower this year. Would be good for their competitiveness, in the world market. In any case, what we’re seeing is their trending numbers. That’s what we really care about anyway. Trend. Right?

That’s nice.

Well, what else.
I don’t know, that should be a good enough summarization of what’s happening between each other. The numbers are all there. I’ll throw up the link to my excel sheet, for anyone interested in doing some currency diagnosis.

Alright Journal. I’m gonna cut this.
And sure. I will come back and do some explaining.
I’ll finally get to telling you what I’m following. How I’m trading. And why I think this is the best thing I’ve come up with so far.

On it.
Mike

THE NUMBERS 2020.xlsx (1.4 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Journal.
Here we go.

How do I trade?
Well, a lot of the same, as I have this year, but with a different indicator.

I’ll just get right into it.

• I’m following the 9 ema line.
• On the daily time frame.
• Momentum.
• Aggregate.

This is the AUD.
I trade their complete currency (7 AUD pairs).
So, the question is, in which direction will I trade this basket of trades?

I will look at the 9 ema line on each of their pairs.
And more specifically, I’m looking at the change in the 9 ema price line.
And then, it’s aggregate.
Follow me. This is how I determine it all. I will go through all of these for the most recent data.

AUD/USD — 9 ema line = .7090 (Thurs), 9 ema line = .7078 (Fri)
EUR/AUD — 9 ema line = 1.6598 (Thurs), 9 ema line = 1.6593 (Fri)
GBP/AUD — 9 ema line = 1.8333 (Thurs), 9 ema line = 1.8351 (Fri)
AUD/CHF — 9 ema line = .6455 (Thurs), 9 ema line = .6453 (Fri)
AUD/JPY — 9 ema line = 74.28 (Thurs), 9 ema line = 74.13 (Fri)
AUD/NZD — 9 ema line = 1.0659 (Thurs), 9 ema line = 1.0653 (Fri)
AUD/CAD — 9 ema line = .9378 (Thurs), 9 ema line = .9375 (Fri)

The reason why I have all that nonsense up there is to show you that I take the difference between them both. It’s shown on this table.

Red = bearish. Green = bullish.
All this is, is the change in what that price line is doing. For the AUD/USD, we can see that the difference between yesterdays 9 ema line and the latest 9 ema line is a negative 12 pips (noted in red).

Then all of the 7 pairs are totaled up and resulted. That figure is on the right. It’s a net negative 51 pips. That’s nice, but we need more. That is what today is. We need to know what yesterday was.

Now we’re getting somewhere.
See. What happened yesterday, and what happened today (EOD), tells me what I’m gonna do (for tomorrow).
Let me reiterate.
What changes that happen to each pairs 9 ema line, totaled up, give me my direction to go in.
Bottom line:

• -79
• -51

The change between them is a positive. Going up. Not down. That’s coming out of being lower and going higher. Right? You can even see this on each of the pairs. Their all coming out from negative and going positive. The EUR pair ended up in the positive (the only one).

This tells me I’m going long AUD complete currency. At this end of day.
If I was short the AUD, then I’d be changing them to long. If I’m already long, then no changes to my trades.

Here’s a compilation of what this month looked like with the AUD.

Row 1 = date
Row 2 = who
Row 3 = aggregate daily total, 9 ema change (my indicator)
Row 4 = complete currency daily pip result (literal, exact)
Row 5 = which direction my trades will be going in for that EOD, (green = long, red = short)
Row 6 = the daily pip result for my trades
Row 7 = the monthly running total of pips acquired

So.
What am I doing?
I’m trading a complete currency.
Staying in the market with the indicated direction. Changed at an EOD, if it switches.
Taking profit at every 10% increase of my account.

I’m following the aggregate change in 9 ema price line.
Forget stated trend.
I’m following what the trend of that change is.
It’s more of a momentum following than anything else.
And I have results. Been doing a whole lot of back testing. And I have some very interesting results. Trust me, each currency traded this way produces different results. I’ll give you what I got so far.
These are the bottom line results since June of this year.
Don’t forget. This is complete currency trades. That’s 7 pairs in a basket.

The CAD produced -6,895 pips.

The CHF produced -2,098 pips.

The GBP produced -1,192 pips.

The EUR produced +117 pips.

The JPY produced +224 pips.

The NZD produced +707 pips.

The USD produced +1,713 pips.

The AUD produced +5,825 pips.

Once again, the AUD fares better than any other currency. By far.

I’m working on the rest of this year. Back testing results.
It won’t take me too long to get them done. When I do, will tell.

Well, I got to run.
But that’s the gist of it.
More to come on this later.
Thanks for listening Journal.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Hey Journal.

Well, I just scraped all that nonsense. It was a post about my trading.
That’s nice. I’ll get to that at another time. Btw…I do have good stuff happening on how I trade. I’m very happy about it all.

But I want to get to doing some market analysis. The reason why…is because the market did some interesting things this week. And I would like to expound on what’s been happening, which direction things have been going, and what I think is coming up next.

This was from last week.

@MikeWolski

We have monthly results here. It’s a kind of birds eye view of what’s been happening in the market lately. So, what can we say then?

• The risk-on currencies have been selling off, since the summer.
• The safe haven currencies are getting stronger.

That’s some kind of context we have going into this new month. So now, what has happened in this first week of the month?

Top table is the daily cumulative running totals.
Bottom table is each day’s individual results.
And what do we have?

• The Comms are the most bought currencies for the month so far - More risk-on than risk-off
• The AUD most bought +14.38%
• The USD most sold -15.66%
• Convergence between the AUD and the NZD
• Convergence between the USD and the JPY
• Convergence between the EUR and the CHF
• CAD is still switching between the Comms and the USD. Quite unpredictable
• GBP just floating. They do what they do best…up one day, then down the next (impossible to trade).
• EUR quite bullish on Friday (most bid currency)

Well, it’s cut and dry. The market was bullish this entire week, except for a take profit day on Friday.

I can’t believe the market is bullish Biden. That doesn’t make sense to me, whatsoever. And here I thought the market was on the smart side. Sorry…but I disagree with that. And that definitely tells me something. The market must be biased. Left.

Anyway.
I got to run Journal.
Sorry can’t go anymore. But we have to fly.
Well, I’ll try to come back later this weekend. I would like to throw out there how I’m trading. Cause I’m super excited about it.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

Let’s do this.
This is how I trade.

Well, it’s all right there.
Basically, I went back to my original indicator. I was using this pretty much the entire year. Just recently I thought it could have been something else. Like the 9 ema price all by itself. But after doing much back testing, I found out that this doesn’t compare to my 5ema/9ema lines.

Let me talk about what I follow.

See. I was wanting to find an indicator that is smooth. Surely, price action is not smooth. Not even on the daily time frame. But what I mean about smooth, is more like average price, over time.

Well then, that always leads me to the moving averages, for an indicator. People always say that it’s a lagging indicator. Well, that’s precisely what I want! Why do you think present price action is so hard to tell where it wants to go next? That’s nothing but back and forth nonsense.

All you have to do is look at a moving average on the chart. Now that’s smooth. It’s not back and forth. It is more predictable than current price. And it makes sense when my time frame for keeping trades open for a length of time, is longer.

So. What do I have so far?
What do I follow?

• Average price

What’s next?
Well, you have to admit, following some kind of trend is always best. Everyone knows this. In fact, it’s all in the definition of what a trend is.
“To tend to take a particular drection; extend in some direction indicated.”
That is something, to some extent, predictable. It’s all common sense.

That’s nice.

What trend am I gonna follow?

Well, in my mind, I believe things can be boiled down to either being in a bull trend or in a bear trend. So. I’ll start there.

How do I determine if something is in a bull or bear trend?
Answer: the difference between the 5 ema price and the 9 ema price.

See. According to my indicator choices.
Current Price will be the most recent price available.
5 ema Price will be the next most recent price.
9 ema Price will be the next most recent price.
The difference between those 2 will be the most farther out price.

What I want is something smooth, but recent.

Ok. Now. What do we have?
What do I follow?

• Average price
• The difference between the 5 & 9 ema prices

Couple with all of that, an aggregate total should smooth it all out. In my mind, this will be more of a true direction a currency will travel. Individual currency pairs mean nothing to me. Absolutely nothing. I need aggregate. And that’s what I base everything off of. You can probably say that the word aggregate is mostly related to average.

What do I follow?

• Average price
• The difference between the 5 & 9 ema prices
• An aggregate complete currency (7 pairs boiled down to one)

The next, and final, most very important aspect of what I follow is called momentum. This could be considered what the trend is. Technically, it’s the trend of the stated trend. My time frame momentum is:

• Yesterdays result
• Todays result
• For tomorrows result

This is the final package of what I follow, right there. Whatever the magic number comes out to be for yesterday, compared to what it is today, tells me in which direction I will go in, for tomorrow. And since momentum basically means continuing in the same manner, then I’ll be either staying in the same direction or changing the other way.

And what I’ve been wanting, is this to be smooth. I don’t want to be jumping in and out of directions. Know what I mean? Can you imagine me trying to determine this by what the current price action is? Even on the daily time frame. That’ll be nothing but back and forth. Which is nonsense to me.

In another words, I want something to tell me “Stay in your trades, in this particular trend, until it changes.”

I’m not trading a stated trend. I’m trading the momentum of whatever trend it’s in. Cause a trend consists of both with and against the broader direction. It’ll be the subset of what’s going on in a trend. That’s what I’m after. Simply that.

Look. I know this is all nonsense.
But I just like explaining what’s really going on underneath the way I trade. It all makes sense to me.

The results are very impressive to me. And every currency, complete currency that is, produces different results. And once again, the AUD takes the cake. But, I’ve found that the USD, and the JPY produces some very good results also.
The AUD. Complete currency results.

• 14,800 pips since the beginning of the year

The USD results.

• 11,016 pips since the beginning of the year

The JPY results.

• 3,286 pips since the beginning of the year

And you can see what I’m gonna do at the open. Look up there at the AUD. I’m gonna exit my long trades and re-enter going short. Why? Because my indicator is telling me that it’s starting to head downward now. 225 - 212 = lower

No changing with the USD. Their in a bear market, continuing to head lower. So I’ll keep my short USD trades running.
No changing with the JPY. Their in a bull market, continuing to head lower. So I’ll keep my short JPY trades running.

This past week was exceptional for these trades.
Let me show you when I took profit on some of them.

The AUD.

That was taken on Tuesday. This is when I took profit. You can even see there the Unrealized P&L (%) was 10.91%. Therefore that means I take profit. And so I did. Then, according to my rules, recalculated my position sizing and immediately re-entered (with 22k sizes instead of 20k sizes).

Well then, it was only two days later that I took profit again!
Look.

You can see I had 22k sizes on them all. And the pip count is on the right side. But this time the P&L turned out to be 12.87%. Nice. Well, that tells me to exit and take profit. Do the same thing again. Recalculate the position sizing and re-enter with the new size. That will be with 24k sizes.

And that’s where we stand at the present moment.
I guess I can show you what it looks like right now.

I took a pretty good hit on Friday. Down day for the AUD.
And well, down enough to turn my indicator south. That’s what I’ll do at the open. Close all of these and re-enter going short. Probably with 22k sizes on each.

I think 18.15% is pretty good for one week.

Look. This doesn’t always happen. But when the trend…trends…then it’ll bode good for me. That’s all.

I had a good week with the USD also.
Took profit twice also!
This is what it looks like right now.

+26.82% is a good week!
And well, I have no changes happening with the USD at the open. So, these trades will just continue to run.

I trade the JPY as well. These 3 only.
What’s that look like?

+5.23% this week.
Only took profit one time. Cause I start out with 20k sizes. It then went to 22k sizes, as you see there. And that’s where I’m at.
And no changes gonna happen at the open, cause my indicator tells me no different change in the momentum (all explained above).

Alright Journal.
I’m done talking.
Sorry about all that nonsense up above. It might be a lot. But it was fun explaining my reasoning behind all what I do.
Thanks for listening.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.
This is my most favorite time of the week.
Now (Sat. morning…very early).
Been getting a lot of work done already. Up since 2:15am. Finished running the numbers, for the week. And been doing a lot of back testing on my system. Absolutely awesome stuff.

In any case, I’m at a good point in the action where I can take a break and come on in here and find out what’s going on in the market (with you). So, let’s do just that.

What’s going on in the market?

Well, first off, we have to remember where we last left off at, right?
This was last weekends summary.

@MikeWolski

And what do we have?

• The Comms are the most bought currencies for the month so far - More risk-on than risk-off
• The AUD most bought +14.38%
• The USD most sold -15.66%
• Convergence between the AUD and the NZD
• Convergence between the USD and the JPY
• Convergence between the EUR and the CHF
• CAD is still switching between the Comms and the USD. Quite unpredictable
• GBP just floating. They do what they do best…up one day, then down the next (impossible to trade).
• EUR quite bullish on Friday (most bid currency)

So, let’s see how this week unraveled.

Top table is daily standalone results. Bottom table is the week running.
So, let’s simplify the week.

• NZD most bought currency +11.15% (totaled against every one)
• CHF most sold currency -12.12%
• JPY second most sold currency -10.38%

Those are the outliers. But we did have some interesting days.

• Monday was a huge volatile day. Risk-on verses risk-off. The JPY and the CHF took the hit. But the USD didn’t. They ended up in the positive (3.30%). The CAD rode along with the other Comm boys (or possibly with the USD…they are so hard to tell nowadays).

• Wednesday was the big day for the NZD. That’s because of their central bank meeting, and no change in their interest rate (Official Cash Rate = 0.25%). It is interesting how the AUD just downgraded theirs (0.10%) and the NZD didn’t. In any case, they both are at their lowest level…ever. We are in some different times boy.

Well, while we’re here. Let’s look at them all. We’re not gonna know what’s good or bad if we don’t compare them, right?

Hmmmm. Should I?
Ok.

I don’t exactly know what to say about that.
I’m not an expert on them, but, someone’s making some money over there. shrug

Anyway. Closer to home. Let’s see how the month is coming along.

This is almost the same thing I said last weekend at this time.

• Comms still most bought up currencies
• Safe havens still most sold off currencies

Other than that, not a whole lot happening, moving.

Look. This is stuff we need to keep in mind. It’s what’s going on in the market. The trend is still in tact. We honestly can’t say that the trend is changing. Sure, it all depends on the time frame you’re talking about, but I’m talking about the broader, most accurate, time frame you can get. The DAILY perspective. And looking at the week in total, is the best you can do.

I have to say, though. I’m liking my trend indicator…more and more.
I’ve had a good week this week. Out of the 3 currencies I trade (USD,JPY,AUD), the JPY was the most profitable. Let me show you.

This is the latest on my JPY account.

• 25.43% for the month so far

If you remember, Journal, last week, the JPY didn’t fare so well compared to the other 2. But this week it was the opposite. I lost a little with the AUD, and the USD. But made up for it with this guy.

I want to show you an example of why I really, really like my system. It does give me some good clues. This was the JPY. This week.

I want to point out what happened on Monday (Nov 9th). To reiterate.

• What happens yesterday, compared to today, tells me what I’m gonna do tomorrow.

Therefore, what happened on Nov 5th (produced a ‘BULL 33’), compared to Nov 6th (‘BULL 26’), tells me what I’m gonna do at the open of this week (Nov 9th). Since that momentum is decreasing I’m gonna go short the JPY. And, of course, that’s what I did. What was the result of that day? It’s right there, a whopping -1259 pips. And since I was short the Yen, that’s all positive pips for my trades (bottom row is my actual trading results, in pips).

And so, while we’re here, let’s follow the progression. What am I gonna do for the 10th? Stay short (‘BULL 26’, to ‘BEAR 148’). That is indicated by the color on the bottom. Then, the same thing goes for the 11th. We got ‘BEAR 148’ to ‘BEAR 234’ means the momentum is still short. Then for the 12th, same thing, no change, I’m still short the JPY. But look at what the results were for that day…+400 pips. That means I lose -400 pips. That was a counter trended day for me. Ok. Fine. I lose. But, what do I do going forward now. We got a ‘BEAR 264’, to a ‘BEAR 209’ is moving higher. That makes me change trends. I’m gonna go JPY long now. Right? I’m trading the momentum. Therefore, for the 13th (EOD 12th), I switch directions which is noted by the color at the bottom. What was the result of that day? +185 pips. Positive for me, cause I’m long the Yen now. And, you can see where I stand at the present time. No changes, cause the momentum is staying long (‘BEAR 209’ to a ‘BEAR 150’ is getting more positive).

Sorry for all that nonsense Journal. I mainly wanted to point out about what happened on Monday. That was totally awesome! My indicator stays true to me. And I find that happens a whole lot. You never know when the big numbers hit. That’s the main reason why I’m constantly in the market. Who in their right mind can guess when that happens (big changes)? Well, I tell ya, I get pretty dog-gone close, cause I’m perpetually running in it.

Alright Journal.
I definitely ran out my time in here. Got to run.

I can’t wait for next year. Been starting to think about what I’m gonna do for the entire year. Why? Cause I believe this strategy is awesome and just might not deviate from it all year long (that’ll be a feat in itself to begin with). We’ll see.

But, you’ll know all.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

It’s me again.
Just got done with some back testing results. And I think this is very interesting stuff. I’d like to share it with you.

I’ve thrown out to you how I trade. Some back testing results. But not the complete story.

This is the rest of the story.

When it comes to backtesting how my trades would have done in the past…this is a real trick. It’s not easy. I don’t trade the conventional way. I don’t have that run-of-the-mill entry spot, take profit place, and stop loss. Sure. That’s easy stuff. But, I’m not gonna play that silly game. Trying to determine when to get in, get out, is way too chancy for me. For methodological purposes…absolutely no way.

My trades run. Yes. My complete currency trades run in the market. That’ll be my basket of 7 pairs that are perpetually running along the waves of the market. All I do is follow my determined trend. Sure. There’s a lot going into what determines which direction I will be going in, but it’s quite simple, actually. When that tells me to switch directions, then I do it.

And there it is. That is what is always happening with me. I have trades always running in the market. But, how am I making any money?

Well, the normal way is, you get in, then you get out, and then you have your result. Sure. Then all you do is add that, or subtract that, to you trading account balance. Right? That is the measure of how well your strategy is performing. There are a lot of metrics that can be produced to tell you how well, or how not well your strategy is performing that way. You will end up having stuff like your win/loss %, how much of a win/loss amount, max drawdown, stuff like that.

But, it all comes down to what your account balance looks like. Right? I mean, face it, it’ll be either going up or going down. The only variable between those two things is the amount of time that your trades are in the market. Sometimes you are out of the market, and sometimes you are in the market. When you are out, your account balance doesn’t move. It stays the same. But when is it all measured? Only when you’re out of the market?

Look. I know I’m talking about stuff that is most obvious and not talked about. But there is a point here. And it’s because of how I trade.

Questions.

• When is the right amount of time that your strategy tells you that it’s good enough or not good enough?

• When is the right amount of time that your account balance tells you that you have done good or bad?

• Only when you’re not in the market?

• At the end of a month? Quarter? Or the end of a year?

These questions are what separates me from everyone else.

It’s all in a perspective.
Whatever perspective you make it.
This is what I think.

Over time, is my account balance rising or falling?
Measured in months.
The more months, the better.

That’s vague stuff. But it’s how I measure and determine what is working for me and what is not. That’s all. You can’t box up what happens in the market. There will never be a same month, quarter, year.

So, how about I get to it.
Ok.

The one (and only) thing that I have in common with every one else is what my account balance looks like. Therefore, that’s what I look at.

My Take Profit — That consists of:

• Exiting out of the market, when I attain 10% increase
• Recalculate my position sizing (will be higher)
• Immediately re-enter with the new lot sizes and same direction

My losses/changing directions — That consists of:

• Exiting out of the market, at EOD, when my indicator shows me
• Recalculating my position sizing (will be lower)
• Immediately re-enter with the new lot sizes and opposite direction

That is it. I do not have any stop losses set. No levels predetermined. Nothing. Simply checking in, throughout the day, for any black swan events that could possibly happen. That would be my only worry. You can’t forget, my trades are quite hedged. I feel my risk profile is highly minimized.

Anyway.

Now. How can I go back and backtest my strategy to see if my account balance rises or falls over time?

This is what I did.
I got a couple rules.
I think these are very accurate.

For every +500 pips, I will take profit.
For every -500 pips, I will take a loss.

In actuality, for every 500 pips of profit, that equates to another position sizing higher. And for every 500 pips of loss, that equates to another position sizing lower.

But, for simplicity sake, I can go back in time and measure the amount of times my account will either increase or decrease. I haven’t been able to determine exactly how much that will be. It’s just the theoretical aspect of it (trust me, with a basket of trades running it’s no easy feat to find those exact numbers).

Here’s the AUD. This tells me everything about my running trades. For the month of Jan.

My first trade of the year runs up to the 9th of Jan. I was bearish the AUD at the start of the year. But then at EOD 1/9, I had to switch to JPY long. Why? That’s my indicator telling me to switch directions (colored bottom row). So therefore I exit out of those short Yen trades (with a +675 pip win), and then recalculate my position sizing, then immediately re-enter going north. That means that I took profit on that first trade of mine. Here’s a summary of the 4 individual trades during the month of Jan.

Those numbers in the boxes are simply the ending trade result, in pips.

I had a total of 4 trades (we’ll just call it that).
The first trade I took profit one time.
The second had no take profit or losses. Even.
The third trade had 2 take profits.
The fourth trade had 1 loss.
Total result for that month was:

• 3 take profits
• 1 loss

What does this mean?

• My account balance ended higher (cause I had more take profits than losses)
• My account balance should be ending with 2 lot sizes higher, than what I started with (1 box signifies 1 lot size higher, above break even)

And that’s it. This should give me some kind of idea of what my account balance would be doing. Going up, or going down. Right?

I trade 3 (complete) currencies.
AUD
USD
JPY

Let’s look at some results (I’ll be kind and only show summaries).

In each box, the top # is how many times I’ve taken profit that month. The bottom # is how many times I’ve taken a loss that month.
Totals are on the ends (right side, and bottom).

SUMMARY POINTS

• AUD
  — Takes profit twice the amount of times than taking losses
  — Only 4 losing months, the rest winning months
  — The best performing currency of the 3

• USD
  — Takes profit 3 times the amount of times than taking losses
  — Only 2 losing months
  — With the exception of one month, mostly not as volatile

• JPY
  — Takes profit just about as many times as taking losses
  — 5 losing months
  — The worst performing currency out of the 3
  — Most volatile currency of the 3

• TOTALS
  — The bottom row. Counting the current month running, have 7 positive months and 4 losing months.
  — Taken profit 78 times, and taken 46 losses.

I’ve asked myself, why I should continue with the JPY, with this system. It seems like more bad than good with it, you know?

My answer to that…is to look at the total production of the 3 currencies. Bottom right corner square. That’s their total. I think that’s quite impressive. It’s like each of the 3 has a unique, specific, value adding perspective.

I mean, look at the month of June. The JPY performed 3 times as good as the other 2 currencies. That’s impressive. Also Sep. was a very profitable month for them, along with being the best performer that month.

Journal. What does all this nonsense mean, anyway?
That this should work.

Getting back to what’s important.
While I can’t determine exactly how much my account balance will increase, with the backtesting. What I can do is, at least, see that my account balance should increase over time. Months.

I know what will be the real test. And that’s forward testing. And that’s what I’m gearing up for next year. I want to develop a real good system of tracking everything that is important. Not only the increasing (or decreasing) % of the account balance, but other metrics that are meaningful. Trust me, I think I can come up with some good ones.

But the most important thing, would be for me to keep with this system, and not change anything!

I spent this entire year on this vein. Been wanting to find that anchor trade. I’ve been all around it. I added only a couple of tweeks from what was at the onset.

Well Journal, that should just about bring you up to speed on what I’m up to. I know…it’s a lot. But, then again, not really. It’s what I’ve been doing all along.

Alright Journal.
Thanks for listening.
We’ll definitely be in touch.
Mike