Good Morning Journal!
Good Morning Mike! How ya doing?
Well, I'm ok. A little late this morning, but what can I do. Dog-gone time change. But, other than that, I guess I'm ok. Boy....I did some changes though, Journal.
Oh no, Mike. What did you do? And.......you didn't talk to me first?
Ok. Look. I've been thinking about this. I think it's a flaw. In the mind. It's a core trading value. A principle.
I want to be most objective. I don't want to be bias towards anything. I believe this is a hindrance.
That's been something that has been coming up in my mind a lot lately. And you know what? The way I am trading is very bias. And it's a bit juvenile. It's time to grow up. Look. I trade the JPY. One currency. If that in itself is not being bias, nothing is. I mean, I know that every young trader is best to find one pair to trade, for simplicity sake. Sure, that's the best way to get to know a pairs' movements, habits, tendencies, etc....There are too many possible distractions. For as difficult as this trade is, that only makes sense. But, I've picked, not only one pair, but one currency. And it's been over a year now (since the start of '17). So, when I think about whether I possess the core trading value of objectiveness, this method is a hindrance. I am all kind of bias. There's nothing more that I want to see, in the market, more than the JPY strong. So, it's one currency and in one direction. But, I do have to tell you, that during this time I have uncovered the best way, methodology, to trade. It helped me to keep focus on finding my particular method to trade. But, you can guess, that after a while this can lead to becoming very bias. My focus will be on the subject, instead of the method. And that's what has been happening lately.
I've talked to you about this before. I was wondering about how to branch out and take the next step, in the developmental process. Look. I don't want to get caught up with the JPY. That, in itself, should have nothing to do with my methodology. But, it sure can derail me, emotionally. You know, where there's relationships, there's emotions. But, what I'm trying to do is find that methodology to follow. That is what I'm really after.
Ok. So. You know what my system entails. Bottom line, simple terms. It's the crossover system. That's what I see in the market. It's actually the way I know that there's a trend taking place. I believe in average price. That, to me, is more reliable than actual price. It's only a shame that it's something that has taken place already. It's past data. Not present. Relatively speaking. (Cause I happen to think that absolutely everything is past data to begin with). Current Price Action, to me, is past data also. I just don't buy it. There's no such thing as present data.
I need to stop right here. I've been sitting here, now, thinking of this. I seen a video, yesterday, of Daniel Kauhneman. It was a TED talk. (I'm telling you.....that guy.....is a genius! When it comes to the mind). Well, he was talking about happiness, and about our 2 selves. Our experiencing self as opposed to our reflective self. What we actually experience is quite different from what we remember about an experience. I don't want to go in to it all, but, we should just recognize that what we remember about something doesn't always match what the actual experience was. Most of our entire life is made up of memories. But, our actual experiences pretty much last only about 3 seconds. That really made me think. So, to back it up a little. In the market, maybe you can make the case that what can differentiate the present from the past, could be 3 seconds. I mean, if we separate our present experiences from past experiences by being only 3 seconds, then why couldn't we make that same assumption in regards to the market?
Ok. That's all good and nice. I prefer average price, than any other price. To me, it's more truer than price action. It shows me direction. Flow. Nothing to me, makes more sense to look at, than that. And then, I have a beginning. It's the initial crossover. It's the change in direction. Sure, fake outs happen. There can be indecision. The market sometimes takes it's time to produce real change. But, eventually, there will be a long trend. To me, it's guaranteed. Now.....mind you....I'm talking about the JPY . They are predictable. Habitual. For the most part, consistent, more than any other currency. There are good reasons why they behave in that manner. And, last but not least, there's an end. The back crossover. It's another change in direction.
In any case, those are the reasons why I believe in my system. So then, the questions begs, why am I sticking with only going south? That is, the Yen strong. I mean, I know that I believe in fear being more powerful than greed. That is the reason why I picked that, in the beginning, with my preferences. But, now, what's most important, is developing a system to follow. So, I believe that the most natural progression of things should be to follow that system in total. Going one way or the other. Up or down. Basically, from crossover to crossover. In the same way. There is no difference. It's all the same method. Plus, this should help me not fall trap to adopting a bias mentality, in the market (someone strong or weak). I mean, I guess the only bias that I could possibly have would be wanting a trend. As opposed to a ranging condition. I'm sure I can work on that though.
Wait a minute....Mike.... I know what your doing here. Now that the JPY has turned, getting weaker, your rationalizing a way to get back in the market. Aren't you?
Really, Journal? You're gonna hit me with that?
Fine! I'll go there!
Yes, Journal. Your right. I took a hit. I got tired of being on the sidelines. Got tired of seeing pips upon pips being taken, without me in. I was waiting for a good time to get back in. Been working on a re-entry plan. But, I got impatient. Wouldn't you know. I jumped in, pretty much at the bottom. It's funny how no one can pick tops or bottoms. Until you want it to continue. Only then will you find the top, or bottom. Well, I found it. And then I started to work on patience, at the same time. You know, that's a good character quality, and also a core trader skill. Boy....that was a mistake. Wrong time to think that the market will always come back around. So then, I took a loss. It hurt. Badly. But, the more I thought about it, the thing that hurts the most, is that I'm not following any kind of plan. It's the re-entry plan. Well, I don't have one, to date. That's where I'm at, in the present process.
But, during this ordeal, I have decided to expand. Look. I know that I will lose. In fact, I really don't care about anything else, other than wanting to be able to say that I'm good at following the plan. And guess what.....the plan won't change. I will be doing the same thing, following the same thing, in the exact manner, only in the other direction. See, I want another chance. I admit. I don't want to wait for weeks to months before another possible Yen strong run. What I need is another chance to follow the plan. Look. I know how to be committed to something. But, on the other hand, I need to progress. I need change. It took a while (much, much thought) but, I now have a clear conscious about the direction I'm going in. Literally.
Now Journal, go back to the beginning of this post. It should all make sense now. You will see where I'm coming from. Everything that I have mentioned, still holds true. I want to be objective, a true trader quality trait.
So, this is what I will continue to work on. Getting in at the crossover. Staying in, until it crosses back over. That will produce profit. There's not a whole lot that can be guaranteed in the market. But guess what...I will say that this system is guaranteed. The thing is....it's not easy to replicate. In real time. So, my journey will continue. I will be playing both sides. Still only with the JPY, but long or short. I also plan on documenting more of my moves, to you Journal.
So.....let's begin. This is where I'm at now.
Well, this is the precursor. Tell me there's not a trend change.
Look. Anything can happen from here. I do not know what's going to happen. Sometimes I think I do. That's why I must continually tell myself that I don't. Like last week, remember me telling you that the trend is not over. Heading into March looks like a strong move. But, after the fact now, it kind of looks like a double top formed. Another thing I find interesting here, is how things seem to take place around the beginning of a month (I did mention this before). It only takes about 2 or 3 days into Feb to get this strong trend moving. Then into March now, again, it only takes a couple days to get a trend change. Well, so far, that is. I'm no stranger to tracking currencies. I've been doing that more than I've done absolutely anything else, regarding this market. But anyway, it's always interesting to see that.
Well, I'm looking to get in, long (JPY short), at the crossovers. Take a look.
The only one I'm not in with is the CHF/JPY. I mean look, there's no indication of any kind of trend change. Surely there is with the other 6. But, now. This is the plan. Because I don't know what's going to happen next, I will wait to get a crossover. None has officially taken yet. We are very close to that point now though (It's just what I have to do, beforehand).
Well Journal, this is just where I'm at right now. As it unfolds, I'll let you know.
Oh, and another thing. I told you about this last weekend. Remember.....I am following the 9 ema line (dark blue). This is definitely going to help me. I'll show you what I mean.
Well, at the current time, you can see where I entered. It was Thursday end of day. The crossover didn't take place yet, but I might have even gotten in a little late. Look at the latest 5 & 9 prices. 30 & 39. So, the way it's going the crossover might take place around the 40's. That's somewhere between 106.40 - 106.50 . But, look at where I got in at. 106.576
There's a good chance I am late, but, you know what.....that's close enough for me. Just take a look at what price ( in red) has been doing lately. Twice before the end of the month, price has popped up above the 5 & 9 lines, which is a typical pattern to see before it actually does propel up higher. Well, this is the third time doing that same move. Maybe it will be the final time, for a change in trend. We'll see.
Boy, I just might be spot on with this one. Got in at 131.222 . And look at the lines. When that dark blue line gets crossed by the light blue, it's on. Should be in the 20's.
Until next time.