Good Morning Journal !
Good Morning Mike!
Well, before we begin, I have to say that I didn’t hear back from Terry. I mean, I sent out an email to him. I even left my number at the bottom. But, who knows if he even has that email address anymore, or even if he’s alive, or …I just don’t know. Anyway, I’ll keep you informed if anything comes about that. See, that is my next course of action. I realized that this is the time for me to start developing relationships. I’ve read recently, and it is such common sense, that no one is self made. Every business related person trying to get somewhere is business, really needs the help of others. That’s at least one other person. So, now’s the time, for me, to reach out. If I don’t hear from him, then I’ll have to move on. I think I’ll try for Paul. He was Terry’s partner. ( I did much talking about those 2, over a year ago, here)
Ok. That’s nice. Journal, we got a lot to do today. I just need to get some of this stuff out real quick. But, I do have another breakthrough. I must tell you.
Well, yesterday was interesting. See, every weekend me and Trish have to do our weekly shopping. We go to a couple different stores, and then always end up somewhere for lunch. ( That’s been our regular schedule for the last 8 years) Anyway…at lunch, the talk took a turn, alright. How about I just give you the bottom line here. She, basically thinks, that I should give it a shot. (It’s funny how different minds think…especially between men and women). "Well Mike, what could you do with, say, $1,000 ? Why don’t you find out? Give it a real shot. For, say, a couple months time."
She’s talking about day trading. See, I’m due for some vacation. I have always taking a week at the end of May. But, however that turns out, and between me going on unemployment, I will be having some time to be able to find out what I can do.
Mike – What a novel idea! This, up to this point, has not occurred to me. Talk about the psychological issues we can have. I guess, when it comes down to it, day trading has to be the answer. But, in my mind, all I remember is some serious crash and burn. Sure, it was some time ago, that I tried it, with real earnestness. Honestly, probably only one time, in which I did. It was during a vacation a few years ago. Well…and this is another psychological issue…I have learned so much since then. Plus, unfortunately, I think I might be getting used to the fact that I don’t trust myself. It might be a barrier, in which to think that I can do this feat. What I’m saying is that I might have convinced myself that this is not possible. I’m talking about day trading. Well, during this whole conversation, the psychological walls might be broken through. Cause I really do not know whether I can or can’t. At this point. Without having tried to. But, if I were to be honest with myself, I definitely think it’s possible. If I had the time to devote all my effort into it, who really knows. No one !!! Not even me. Unless I try. Look, I’m a worker. What could happen if this was my work? I’m talking about putting all of the things that I have learned, into action. I know what the market can do. Really…I don’t think there’s anything that would surprise me. I’ve experienced, not one, but two black swan events. ( CHF, and China)
Ok. 3 . (Brexit)
–What ‘beyond’ means now–
You know, it’s interesting all of the transitions that we must go through. Just look, up there at the title of my thread. That’s the first transition. Yeah, a pretty big step, from the demo stage to the live stage. A must go through time. But, you know what? I believe I’m going through another transition. That’s from part time to full time. That’s what that word beyond is going to mean, from now on. I mean, doesn’t that only make sense? That’s where I’m going anyway. But now, life is kind of forcing me to take a real stab at it. It’s time to test the waters. You know, there’s a saying. Sink or Swim. I think I’m at the point, in my career now, that I need to, at least, find out if I can swim. Or will I drown? See, I’m coming up on a juncture. I will have the opportunity to devote a whole lot of time, for a trial, to find out whether I can stay afloat, or not. Trish is right. There’s no reason why I cannot find this out. I’ll go on unemployment, use up my vacation time, and see what I can do with 1k amount. It’s all about percentages anyway. Look, that’s not going to break us. We (or should I say, she) has money in the bank. And up to this point, there’s no way I have asked to use that for my venture. I know better. But, and I think this is where she’s coming from, what can I do with a small amount? And I mean, given to a fully devoted time period (couple, few months) to the day trading scenario. What kind of return can I accomplish? That’s an unknown. But, it’s time to find out. So, the point here is, that maybe I need to prove whether I can generate some kind of return, with the relatively small amount, given being under realistic conditions. (Fully devoted to it day-in day-out)
Think about it. This trial period could, should, tell me what I would need to do next. Find a temporary day time job? Or continue to build up a ‘funding’ account, with my predominant resource being from trading. For the near term future.
Alright Journal, I’m done talking about it.
We need to start talking market.
Let’s go over what happened last month.
It was a good month. Not only was I in profit, but mostly, I believe I have solidified my trading system. Finally. No more tweaks. I think this was the reason why I profited. I’m pretty clear on what I need to see in the market. Let’s see some numbers.
I did spend some time this week reviewing what the market did, and how my trading fared, in response. Let’s begin. From the top down.
Well, first, I need to know how the JPY did, on the macro level. It all started on the 3rd day of the month. (I’m telling you, things transpire on a monthly basis…for the most part) That’s when the JPY got real weak. The line moving up means they get weaker and weaker. Well, that era was relatively short lived. Cause by the 10th, 11th trading day of the month, they turned strong. As you see, heading into May, they came to an inflection point. Oh, it could have gone either way. A reverse direction, or a continuation. As we know now, they continued on getting strong. There’s reasons for that. I don’t feel like going into that now. But, it just did, that’s all.
Now, what did my trading look like? I’ll show you, in a minute. But, bottom line was, I took the high road. Meaning, I went in with shorting the JPY. The Comms, I went long with. Only the 3. (That’s the only 3 pairs I’m trading).
Well, that should be pretty descriptive for ya Journal. You know what’s funny. I’m sitting here looking at this, just like you are now. Believe me, I did NOT plan this. Cause I started with the A, for Australia (AUD/JPY). Then I did the NZD/JPY. Then finished up drawing the CAD last. Well, what does that spell?
You know what…I CAN do this.
Ok. That’s nice.
That’s a view of when my trades were running. And of course, no one catches tops or bottoms. So, it only makes sense, to jump when I see the tide turning.
So then, my thinking from that point moving forward, was to wait and see how the dust settles. There’s absolutely no way I’m going back in with an opposite way with the JPY. Cause look, day 16, 17, & 18 there was probably some profit taking. It’s the old consolidation taking place. So, I waited to see how it was going to turn out. Especially heading into the end of the month. Actually, I thought there should be a continuation after a good pull back, which took place there in the middle of the month. But, nope. The JPY took on more strength.
So, why didn’t you go long the JPY ,then, Mike?
Journal…I’m still waiting for the dust to settle. It’s not that easy. I believe it’s the time to be out of the market now. I’m not going to be doing the jumping in, jumping out method. No way. That’s not smart. Why not just wait for the Comms to gain some strength. It shouldn’t be too terribly long for that.
Good boy, Mike.
Just testing you.
Yeah man…I’m patient. And I think it’s mostly due to the fact that I have set up my system this way. It gives me the opportunity to trade in a couple different manners. Long the Yen, or Short. See, the other way tends to make me want the market to go the only way I would trade. Being bias. But this way, I can sit back, wait it out, get the proper perspective, and then get in when it’s pretty dog-gone clear.
–Comms strength –
I’m waiting for this to happen. Which invariably means the JPY will lose strength. They both cannot be strong. (Ok, I know, anything can happen. But, up to this point, I’ve never seen it. Well, now that I think about it, I do remember some time ago they both were up at the top, compared to the whole field.)
Anyway, I want to show you my thinking. Well, why I am thinking this way, anyway.
I want to point out a few things here.
–Relationship the Comms have with each other –
Let’s walk through how the month transpired. The CAD was no doubt the strongest currency, across the board. The NZD had a lot of strength also, in the beginning of the month. But notice how those 2 brought up the AUD. The climax took place around the 13th. Oh, yeah, that’s Friday the 13th. Nope. No superstition here. Anyway, Yeah, it was on a Friday. Well, what happened that following week. Well, the AUD and the NZD fell apart. And, mind you, by the end of that very week, the JPY took on strength (Thurs & Fri). So, let’s keep with the topic. The CAD stayed pretty strong while the other 2 dropped. And mostly it was the NZD that dropped out of the sky. Weakest of the whole crowd. But, now what…Look what took place in this last week, just at the turn of the month. We definitely see a coming together. That’s why I think there’s a strength coming for the Comms.
–Why the CAD stayed up there—
From my experience, the CAD is known to tail the all mighty USD. Sure, it tails Mr. Oil also. But, don’t forget, them 2 are trading partners. And, with all of what’s going on fundamentally (NAFTA talks), there’s good reason to know why they haven’t broken down. I mean, look, everybody knows center stage has been captivated by the almighty Dollar lately. And surely you can guess that it’s them that has taken the top spot, above the CAD in the line-up.
Alright, alright. I’ll show the entire line-up.
Also, in respects to how they are relate to one another, it’s no surprise to see the JPY tail the USD also. See, they are both Majors. That means something. Also, they are both safe haven currencies. My point is… that I have seen them ride together, also. In any case, the JPY is been pretty high. And it seems like we could be in for a fall. Especially since the Comms might be moving on up.
Man, Journal. No lie. I remember wondering who was going to take the top spot, once the CAD came down. They have been up there for a good length of time now. This was sometime at the beginning of the month, I pondered it. Well, now we know. The USD did. I mean, it only makes sense. If you remember, this year has been a lot of doom and gloom for the Dollar. But, everyone knew that the interest rates were going to rise. I guess it took some time for that notion to kick in. This, absolutely, shouldn’t have been a surprise. But, I do remember thinking, that it just didn’t make sense why the Dollar struggled so much this year so far. They have been on the up for a couple years now.
Ok. That’s nice. I just remember something else I want to mention. It’s pretty important.
Yesterday I stumbled across the news events that’s coming our way this week. See, I normally don’t make that a priority. I don’t know, maybe I should now. When I think about it, that’s really a smart thing to do. Need a sense of what’s up and coming. Oh, I bet the market makes that a priority.
Well, we definitely have some Comm news hitting the wires. Predominantly the NZD, and the CAD. Let’s see if I can find what I saw.
Ok. I found it. Look.
What do I see here?
I see some risk-on opportunity. You know that the NZD can make a statement. All we have to do is pay attention to what they do for the run-up to Wed. Also the CAD has their employment numbers. I think that could add onto their gains, of late. That’s at the end of the week. My point here is that there are some good reasons for the Comms to take on some strength. That’s all. And I need to be ready for it.
It’s the elephant in the room.
How do they factor into any of the relationships that I care about?
Well, I know they are a risk-on factor. But, just like any currency, everyone is an individual also. There’s no secret what’s going on, fundamentally, with them lately. Brexit stuff. And also, according to my tables, they have fallen from grace. They are dead last, dog-gone it! I don’t know…it’s just interesting to note. So, come Thursday am, maybe something will be more solidified. Look, they have been riding quite high for some time now, like this year. And now it seems like they are going the other way. I don’t know…I wonder if they will take down the EUR with them. Cause, this entire year, the EUR has been majorly strong. All you have to do is look up there to that last table of mine. Far left, for April, is the monthly line-up. Who’s number one? The EUR. That just tells us the they have had strength for a long time. And kept it. Anyway, we very well could see a turn, regarding Europe.
Let’s see, there’s one more thing I want to mention.
This is the only way to trade. I don’t want to chase price. I want price to come to me. I’ve determined to wait for some strong Comms. Therefore, regarding each of the 3, if they come up to a certain spot, then my entry orders will take.
The white lines, respectively, at the top is where my entry orders will take place. The orangish color lines below is the stop losses. But, as it stands, I’m not in any yet. In fact, they’ve been set already. Cause you never know what can happen in a day. So, we’ll see what happens.
Oh…one more thing.
Let’s take a look at what it looks like.
All I need to do is put in some money.
There are some good things about the whole set up. I can probably get used to this. As it looks though, I have the charts on the regular candlesticks. But, I can change it very easily to the Heikin Ashi candles. So, I appreciate that a lot. Also, it’s a good thing to see these charts on the N.Y. close. I guess that’s one of the perks of dealing with a USA broker. Man…just look at the AUD/JPY. Those closing candles are very telling, price action wise. Something is going to break. Compare that chart to the one above, (my other broker). What a difference. It’s a good thing that I don’t put all my eggs into one basket. I take stock in my other tables, probably moreso, than price action.
Yeah, I would rather follow average price than current price action. But hey, I’ll take the confluence.
But…remember…(I follow the blue line…I follow the blue line…I follow the blue line…)
Alright Journal, times up.
Catch ya next time.