Newbies.... Stop being befuddled by charts

Thanks for sharing. It will be helpful for me. I am a newbie :grinning:

thanks for sharing , it is very nice and helpful for me

hello every one today I am going to tell you that

Just remember scalping is for amateurs and bottom feeders.

Sitting there for 8 hours a day like an absolute lemon. Do the maths [average daily profit] / [hours spent at screen daily].

1 Like

I am convinced this is behind the appalling success rate for traders. I suspect most new traders go straight into very short-term trading as it appears easy and low-risk. Most traders lose but most traders are new traders. Most old traders trade long-term and are mostly winning.

You should be convinced, because its the main reason.

Newbies eager as hell to jump on board, don’t have the capital to trade long term, so the only option here is intraday trading/scalping.

Sitting there like an absolute lemon, to make an average of $30 an hour.

It all depends if you want to be the guy that makes $200 a day by spending 8 hours a day, 5 days a week, or the guy that makes $1000 a week from 1 trade that you found by looking at the bigger picture.

Both guys making the exact same amount, one is just being smart about it. The more you trade, the more chances you have of losing.

Less is more.

I had a very bad week this week: The £10K Gamble - [The Journey] - had to close a lot of positions purely because they weren’t going anywhere and just bouncin’ around.

Even then averaged £700+ an hour for time spent.

2 Likes

@Trendswithbenefits,

Ok. this IS crazy… can It really be that simple and UNsophisticated for long term traders?

I have been using thisXLV 4 MA on my charts. But I have to admit I have let PA and the 4H color change 9MA drive me insane! Admittedly, I have been trying to catch tops and bottoms, pull backs at the beginning and their turn as well. I believe my vision has been clouded, confounded, BEFUDDLED by the charts!!

This morning I stripped it all away using the Daily TF. I will hold positions for days and weeks. Though I have read, heard and been told thousands of times I wouldn’t be able to catch the perfect entry and exit I have still tried.

Finally I have seen the light! The scales have fallen from my eyes! I have to stop being so precise and anticipatory. WAIT for the tide to turn and swim with the current!!

Why does it take so long to embrace!!! Oh yeah, because I am so smart!!! :laughing::laughing:

Looking forward to being even more patient and “wait for the light to change” before stepping on the gas!! :sunglasses::sunglasses:

Thanks again for the thread and thanks to all who have contributed!

Looking forward to updating here and in my journal shortly.

KC

3 Likes

Ok… It’s been a while since I have updated this thread… so for anyone still following here we go…

Primarily an updated strategy for the longer term CFD Index traders. Although this can be applied to any Forex Cross pairs and/or larger timeframes with equal success.

The Chart below is the US30 Index (4 Hour TF). I have imposed the XLV4 Indicator on to Raghee Horner’s GRaB Candles Indicator… Another great visual Indicator for those starting out in the FX Markets.

It retains all the simplicity of the MA Coloured Slope Strategy Green - BUY, Blue - Hold, Red - Sell…

The GRaB Candle Indicator is based on the EMA34 and is a way of incorporating coloured candles into the Coloured Slope Strategy… As you can see… it gives a nice clean idea of market sentiment on the longer term charts…

For an overview of Raghee’s Strategy and Indicator Please follow the links below

YouTube Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4

GRaB Candle Indicator for Ctrader (Ver 3.3)

To overlay just add the MA Slope to your chart with settings EMA 34
|
|

GRaB Candle Indicator for Metatrader 4 (Add all 3) Long Candle | Range Candle | Short Candle

Add the XLV4 Indicator to your chart with settings EMA 34 (See US30 4H MT4 Below)

This Strategy should be used with Email / Sound Notifications in place, so you can live a little and get away from your screens. Hope this is helpful to all and a good addition to your trading arsenal…

Cheers

PS: I will be adding a Post later showing how to add S&R Levels to your Colour Charts.

5 Likes

Slowly your simple strategy will become like every other one out there, cloudy and full of indicators.

I think even if you use one indicator or none at all, you will make consistent profits more in a trending market than a ranging one.

I love this honesty. Before I moved into forex I had been swing trading FTSE350 stocks and the FTSE100 index. No regard to trend, just the short-term swing changes. Success was random, the best trades were the ones that became trends: the regular losing patterns were ranges.

Moving into forex I took every trend I could see, not even bothering to use recognised entry patterns, and I did nothing but make money.

Eventually, I tried to be more selective and just take the best trends. And just use the best entry patterns. This significantly reduced total trades per month but didn’t increase profits at all.

I am still trend-following but now use shorter holding times than I would like and am wary of pyramiding. This might be only a temporary restriction as I see a shortage of long-term consistent trending in the forex charts over the last year or so. (This could be a Brexit side-effect or that might just be coincidental but either way should eventually resolve itself.)

2 Likes

But the SMA is worth looking at because they are historically the most trusted. Good for practice.

This results show the opposite. SMA not so good.
https://elite.finviz.com/help/technical-analysis/backtests_report.ashx

2 Likes

Hey @amrogers3, that Finviz table is a good resource for ALL strategies here… Great link…:+1:.

@amrogers3 and @Trendswithbenefits , I have been using the ADX - one of the best rated for longs at the finviz link above.

It has worked well for me in seeing where increased “action” is prior to or spaning the change in color of the XLV4 colored 20MA.

I set the +/- color to “no color” and only use the ADX line. I also use the ADX to set monthly and weekly S/D lines.

Thanks for the link!

KC

Anybody found a non repainting version for MT4?

So you are a millionaire? :upside_down_face:

@Trendswithbenefits and thread participants,

I’ve been refining my strategy and it’s coming along. This is where I am right now.
XLV4 Color 20EMA
HULL @21 MA
ADX without the +/- lines.

What am finding on initial scroll through is that the HULL will signal faster for possible smaller counter trend yet still profitable trades.

and the XLV4 will remain solid longer giving a good overall trend indication.

Here’s a link for the HULL MA

https://www.best-metatrader-indicators.com/hull-moving-average-hma/

Still in demo but going live shortly. As a US citizen I was leaning toward Oanda but checking the spreads I believe that I am going to be opening a small account with Forex.com

KC

2 Likes

Thanks @ItsJoeyTheTrader!

That’s good to know.

I’ll be using MT4 as that’s what I know.

Tx again!

KC

1 Like

sir. can i have a copy of your indicator on ctrader please :frowning:

@ItsJoeyTheTrader Do you use mt4?

I have no idea how I missed this post of yours.

But you make some interesting points. What’s more: it reminded me clearly of (more) stuff of Wilder’s. So much so that I’ve uploaded yet another of my “nuggets”.

To begin with have a read from page 15 in the PDF (page 10 of the book itself) “A Modern Fairy Tale by Jim Sloman”. Not only does it say a lot about trading what you see and not what you believe. But also touches on another topic the other day in which I noted that I believe that children would make far better traders than most of us (myself included).

Then take a look at page 20 in the PDF (page 15 of the book itself) i.e. about going with the market. It sure makes you think.

And frankly I’m pretty stoked that you made me think of this today. I’ve spent most of this weekend (in between messing with people on the forums that is) brushing up on my new toy and the data that I now have at my disposal (reading and watching videos on trading with $TICK, $TRIN, $TIKI). And I realized something: what possesses us as traders to always want to go against the grain (and somewhere in this very book Wilder addresses this very issue). I mean: does it make any sense at all to be trying to go long when the NYSE ticks are negative and falling and the number of declining issues is climbing while the number of advancing issues is falling??? It’s not rocket science. For goodness sake!!! Alright: on extreme readings then the market is running out of steam and conviction so then it’s perfectly acceptable to take advantage. But that doesn’t happen that often during any given day.

Anyways. Enjoy. Sorry about the size i.e. whoever scanned this thing was a bit overzealous with the DPI it would seem (and for some reason or the other I cannot find my original copy of either this book or The Delta Phenomenon both of which I kinda cherished as one was a gift some years ago from The Delta Society). Now I’m not saying whether or not Adam Theory has merit nor not. Some years ago I sat compiling the data but that didn’t last for much longer than a week or two so who knows. But I can say this: there cannot be a better read on trader psychology and a whole bunch of other things that are just so logical but for some reason or the other we allow all manner of other things to cloud our judgment.

The Adam Theory of Markets or What Matters Is Profit - J. Welles Wilder Jnr.

1 Like