Hiya! 
Yeah 100% demo account for now… I still don’t have what I’d confidently call a “system” to my trading, so trying a number of different things to see what fits me best. And I’ve told myself I’m not opening a live account until I finish the School of Pipsology, and manage to put away enough savings specifically for trading (ie not part of my normal savings). So might still be a while till I do 
But just gives me more time to practice.
Update on Straddle:
Broke out to the Bullish side, initial movement came within 2 pips of TP 
Currently still 16 pips up. Have moved Stop to BE.
EDIT: 25 min later, TP is hit. 35 pips profit. Will keep an eye on the price for a bit. TP was just around R2 Pivot for the day, so if it keeps moving up and above that, then we might have another trade setup, but also the 96.000 level is just above it, so breaking both R2 and the 96.000 level at once might a bit of a tall ask.
EDIT2: Further notes on the Straddle play… While the AUD/JPY moved 49.2 pips in the 1h candle which had the news release in it, the AUD/USD moved 31.5, and the AUD/NZD moved 29.6. So in theory plays could have been done on any of these if one had the capital 
but that’s also a lot of risk and setup to put a straddle on all different pairs.
And forgot to mention the AUD had a nice rally against the NZD last night, so hit TP for the AUD/NZD trade there as well overnight. Current running total (based on start time for this journal):
Pips Profit: 75
Pips Lost: 10
Winning Trades: 2
Losing Trades: 1
Might add this to the top post and keep it updated there
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Another possible trade lining up, but a much riskier one. It’s one I’ve been considering for a while, and with the price creeping up again, I figured I’d have a go. Going to put down more thoughts here, as this is very much not a technical play.
Symbol: USD/JPY
Reasoning: The price is approaching the massive psychological level of 150.00 again. Every time in the last month, that the price has closed in on it, we’ve seen volatile swings downwards. Including the 1h candle on 3rd October 2300 JST where the price move down 149.051 points, between open and close, and the overall distance between the two wicks was 287.8 pips. Much speculation has been had around whether the BOJ intervened or not, but regardless, traders seem skittish around that level, and I’m guessing there might be a few other people with this trade in mind having entry orders around the 150 mark.
Entry: 149.99
Sometimes it doesn’t quite hit the 150 mark before selling triggers, so just in case we’re going in just a pip under it.
Stop: 150.19 (20 pips)
This is just above the peak of the October 3rd candles wick (150.161). So even if there is some aggressive buying to counter the sells, hopefully we don’t get stopped out.
Lot Size/Risk: 2% of Account.
Honestly… I might be too greedy here on this quite risky play. Logic is telling me to put in a smaller amount and test the theory. But also there is only so many time the price can test the 150 mark like this before it either breaks up above (which puts Japan in a very rough economic position), or it slides down the other way due to some decision from the BOJ (likely around Yield Curves).
Target Price: 149.59 (-40 pips)
This is just below some of the spikes down, and above some of the others. I wanted initially to put it at the psychological level of 149.50, but (for once in this trade’s reasoning) I’m trying not to be too greedy.
Further Notes:
There are a couple big news tickets coming out in the next few days, Fed Chair Powell speech in the early hours of the morning (JST), followed by Durable Goods Orders and GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv tomorrow evening, and then a few other big US ones on Friday. And of course the BOJs Interest Rate Decision on Halloween (Tuesday).
All of this could have an impact on this trade, and depending on the timing and effects could cause the trade to get blown up, or just never hit the entry at all. As of writing, the price is at 149.94 for SELL, and has creeped up from 149.80 over the day.
Also need to be a bit careful holding this for too long if we do enter, as we’re in relatively strong negative carry trade setup. So if price doesn’t move much, and we’re holding till BOJ’s Interest Rate decision, that’s something that should be taken into account.
Honestly, I’m nervous as hell about this trade, but on the other hand, this is what Demo accounts are for right? Practicing and learning, and at the end of the day, my risk is managed. And it shouldn’t blow up my account as we would need some MAAAAAJOR slippage for that to happen. But also… these kinds of events are ones that can cause slippage (though hopefully not that much) so we’ll see.
You’re doing pretty good with your analysis here. I believe you close to killing it with real account.
Best of luck👍🏽
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So the USD/JPY trade didn’t play out, and is currently trading above the 150 line. While a losing trade is never a nice result, I’m happy with my analysis at the time. We’re in mostly uncharted territory now with the symbol, with numbers not seen since the spike in October last year where it hit a high of 151.948 before some severe intervention by the BOJ. And previously to last October, we haven’t seen the symbol trading anywhere near these numbers in over 10 years. I’m not going to go too much into the analysis here, @FOREX.com have a good analysis post just a few hours ago summarising most of what I’m saying in a more in-depth format USD/JPY: Big call looms for BOJ YCC as Tokyo inflationary pressures heat up. 27/10/2023
The BOJ’s Interest Rate decision on 31st of October is all the more important to watch now, as we might see a lot of volatility around it, especially if any changes to the Yield Control Curve get mentioned. Planning on attempting a News Trade around it, but I fear that a straddle strategy might be too risky, and would likely get whipsawed in both directions. Need to do some research and see if I can develop a directional bias to trade instead.
Regardless, I think there will be a number of USD/JPY trade opportunities presenting themselves over the next few weeks.
Running Summary:
Pips Profit: 75
Pips Lost: 30
Winning Trades: 2
Losing Trades: 2
I need to find a way to put in Lot Sizes in to the summary as 20 pips at 1 lot is very different to 10 pips at 100 lots But at the same time, the main goal of a demo account at the moment is total pip profit. Sizing will need some work, but overall, Pips are more important atm.
Ok, I wasn’t planning on another trade this week, but my stupid arse decided to put in a long-shot entry incase the BOJ decided to intervene late at night on a Friday like they did last year when the price was over 150. What I didn’t expect was a strong rally by the Yen in the last couple hours pushing past my entry and about 40 points past it. I’ll post my initial entry data, as normal, but I’ve already moved the stop to just beyond B/E, and will see how far this goes.
Symbol: USD/JPY
Reasoning: Just in case the BOJ decides to try some intervention at the end of the week due to the price being above 150 the last couple days. Honestly this was a stupid premise initially, and my entry point was way too close to the current price when I placed it, even if it was beyond the psychological level of 150.
Entry: 149.90
Worth noting, when I put this order in and left my desk, the price was around 150.20. 30 Pips drop was probably too close to use… if it was going to drop due to intervention, and extra 30 or 50 Pips further down would still have caught the bulk of the move.
Stop: 150.10 (20 pips)
Standard risk prevention, even if it was a stupid premise, if it did happen and whipsawed in the wrong direction for me, it wouldn’t lose more than I would on a normal trade. At least I made one sensible decision in this trade.
Lot Size/Risk: 2% of Account
For such a crazy trade idea, I shouldn’t have been risking anywhere near this amount. I just defaulted to my usual. 
Target Price: 147.90 (-200 Pips)
If the BOJ was going to intervene, and last year was any indication, it would probably drop a few hundred points. Last time (based on 1D chart) it dropped close to 400 points from it’s open price, before closing the day at around -150 Pips. So 200 Pips seemed like a nice long shot.
Further Notes:
As of writing the trade is about 20 Pips in profit, and I’ve moved the stop to about 3 Pips in profit to at least avoid losing anything on this trade. Despite this (at least, currently) going well for me, I still feel very stupid getting into it in the first place. It was poorly thought out, and entry was placed way too close to current price.
For now I’m going to leave the TP where it is, not because I think it will actually reach it, but I want to watch the price a little bit before deciding where to place it, or whether to close the trade entirely before heading to bed.
EDIT: Further Notes:
On doing some looking at the economic calendar, it seems as though part of this rally by the Yen is driven by slightly worse than expected PCE numbers coming out from the US around 21:30 JST. Another thing I should have checked before putting in this crazy entry order… whether there were major news events scheduled.
Also I’ve moved the TP to 40 Pips as is my usual 2:1 RRR even though the Stop is already (just) in profit. Treating it like a normal trade for now.
Momentum seemed to have died out in the last 20 minutes or so, so just manually closed the trade. Total Profit: 22.7 Pips. Not how I intended to end the week, but at least it turned out well. Time for some sleep.
Running Summary:
Pips Profit: 97.7
Pips Lost: 30
Winning Trades: 3
Losing Trades: 2
New week, new stuff to look at. No trades planned today, but will be keeping a close eye on a number of events this week, and hope to get some trades around them. Going to take some notes here on my thoughts and stuff. Need to start thinking about which to try and trade, and which to miss.
First of all the BOJs Interest Rate decision tomorrow (Tuesday) will be a big one, especially with the USD/JPY breaking and then dropping back down below the 150 level at the end of last week. Lots of speculation about potential big news out of tomorrow’s meeting.
There is NZ Unemployment rates on Wednesday… not sure if I’m going to do much around this. In a quieter period I would, but with all the US and JP stuff this week I might give it a miss.
Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning brings the US Interest Rates decision, and depending on how the JP one goes, this could also have some strong effects on the USD/JPY.
Following day has some Payroll news from the US… will see where we stand at that point in the week whether or not to try and trade those. US news is always a bit tricky for me as half the time it comes out at 3am in the morning, so it’s usually more of a set entry levels and hope, sort of deal.
So some good chances to make some pips, just need to make sure I play them right and get what I can. the RBA’s interest rate decision is early next week too, so it will be an interesting 10 days or so.
Ok, 50 minutes till the BOJ’s decision and I need to start forming a strategy properly. As much as I’d like to trade this on both the AUD/JPY and the USD/JPY, I’m going to play it safe and just trade the USD/JPY.
I’m tending towards a Bearish direction for the result, I think the BOJ will make some changes that will send the pair downwards. But at the same time, they’ve been quite stubborn about changing their monetary policy, so if they don’t do any changes, we could see a strong rally up, and possibly break the 150 level again.
Currently the pair is around the 149.50 level, and I feel that moves to either 150, or 149 are both on the table. The pair actually dropped nearly 70 points last night just before midnight and started the day around the 149 level, and then boosted up to around 149.50 off of some weaker than expected Retail Sales reports out of Japan.
If I aim for a straddle, I think I’ll look for about 50 points initially (though considering the nearly 70 point drop last night, maybe I should be going higher…), with an entry at 149.80 on the Bull side. As it is the top of the range the price was trading before it dropped off last night, and if we do go up, I’m expecting to break the 150 range.
For the downside, it’s a bit harder, we don’t have much of a range leading up the release… Thinking of going with around 149.20, basically needing the price to move 30 pips in either direction to trigger the entries. The main worry is that there might be a lot of whipsawing after this release Regardless of what happens, this will be a good learning experience. I’ll post my trades as normal once I’ve put them in a bit closer to the time.
Went with a compromise, preset entry on the Bearish side, and will watch and manually enter on the Bullside if news goes the other way.
Symbol: USD/JPY
Reasoning: BOJs Interest Rate Decision news release.
Entry: 149.20
~30 points below the roughly 149.50 it’s trading at in the leadup to the release.
Stop: 149.50 (30 pips)
Might be a bit tight tbh, as we could see it whipsaw a lot around this release.
Lot Size/Risk: 2% of Account
Usual amount, though lot size reduced a bit to account for the larger stop than usual.
Target Price: 148.60 (-60 pips)
2:1 RR but also because I feel once we break the 149 range it will just drop a decent amount. I do wonder if we’ll even see 148.00 hit.
Further Notes:
I’ll be looking to enter Manually around the 149.75 level on the Bull side if the BOJ leaves things unchanged today. Also I might try and add to the Bearish side if we see a very strong move downwards (eg breaking the 148 level, but that might be a bit much to hope for)
BOJ took forever (30 minutes late) to release, so I missed the first minute or so of the move. (was reading related articles etc ) Ended up entering manually at 150.02. Stop is at -30 pips and TP at 60 pips. We’ll see how this plays out.
I’d just moved my SL up to just above BE as the trade was 30+ pips in profit… and I got hit by a weird sell off for a few minutes just after the hour. So SL got hit… trade result +3 pips. Such is life I suppose. At least we’re not at a loss.
Might consider an entry at just below 150 again to see if we get any overnight swings to the downside again… but considering there are a number of Med-High US news reports coming out in the next 6 hours or so, I might pass. Will reevaluate things later in the evening.
EDIT: Looks like the 1800 JST sell off was just after the close of the Tokyo Session, so I need to remember that for future trades.
Running Summary:
Pips Profit: 103.7
Pips Lost: 30
Winning Trades: 4
Losing Trades: 2
Average Pips Won: 25.925
Average Pips Lost: 15
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So I did end up doing another trade last night, but didn’t have time at the time to write up a post.
Symbol: USD/JPY
Reasoning: Start of the NY Session, and the expectation that the NY session will continue the rise from the Tokyo session due to the results of the BOJ’s policy meeting (and not changing interesting rates yet).
Entry: 150.8
Price was not moving much around the 150.60-75 range for the previous two hours, after some further rises the previous few hours before that. Basically if the NY session was the continue the trend, it probably wouldn’t take much movement to start it.
Stop: 150.6 (-20 pips)
This would drop it below the long legged Doji that occurred 2 hours prior, and would likely signal that the price would be reversing (or at least that there is more Bearish sentiment than I’m happy with for this trade)
Lot Size/Risk: 1% of Account
Only half my usual amount, I’d have liked to put more, but with the pair being strongly in the 150s, and this trade would take it into the 151s, the risk of intervention by the BOJ is still hanging heavy in the air.
Target Price: 151.1 (30 pips)
I felt that testing 151 would be quite likely if there was upward movement, and that 151.1 was possible, even if it reversed back afterwards. But beyond 151.1 I wasn’t as confident. So ended up with a 1.5:1 RRR.
The above trade went well. I was correct in my assumption that the market would continue it’s momentum from the Tokyo session. It only took a couple hours and TP was hit. The price ended up going above 151.5 before tapering off a bit, so I probably could have been a bit more aggressive with my target, but overall happy with the quick 30 pips.
Running Summary:
Pips Profit: 133.7
Pips Lost: 30
Winning Trades: 5
Losing Trades: 2
Average Pips Won: 26.74
Average Pips Lost: 15
Looking at another USD/JPY trade today… we’ve had a decent downtrend today and have already broken today’s daily PP. I think this run has the potential to test 150 again, after the US held interest rates last night.
Symbol: USD/JPY
Reasoning: US held interest rates, and we seems to have a decent downtrend happing. Considering it’s still early in the Tokyo session, I feel we could see a test of 150 out of this. Downsides, RSI already starting to hit 30 and oversold levels. However, ATX is around 30 and currently in an uptrend, so hopefully this implies the downtrend is picking up speed a bit.
Entry: 150.45
This was mostly a Market Entry after it continued to move down in the candle after it closed below S1. Was probably a bit late in this (breakfast took priority ), and should have entered close to 150.50-55, but ah well.
Stop: 150.75 (30 pips)
This would have brought us back up above S1, and while a retracement uptowards it is probably likely at some point, S1 sits at 150.665 so this is a further 10 pips above it. Part of me wonders if I should be setting it looser, up at around 150.95, where the top of the first red candle of the current run of 3 started. Time will tell.
Lot Size/Risk: 2% of Account
Smaller lot size to account for a wider stop.
Target Price: 149.95 (-50 pips)
Not quite 2:1 RRR but while I feel the price will test 150, I don’t think it will break through it necessarily. So just below 150 to catch the test.
The above USD/JPY traded ended well, and while S2 did end up providing a bit of support initially, it did get broken, albeit with some help from the US Jobless Claims coming in a bit weak overnight.
Running Summary:
Pips Profit: 183.7
Pips Lost: 30
Winning Trades: 6
Losing Trades: 2
Average Pips Won: 30.61
Average Pips Lost: 15
EDIT: Hmm looks like you can’t edit posts that are older than 10 days Won’t be able to update the OP with the Running Summary anymore.
Awesome trades my man! 6/2 ! Those are good numbers to me!
Keep it in the green my friend. Looking forward to the next. 
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Trying another Straddle around the US Unemployment Rate, and Non-Farm Payrolls release.
Symbol: USD/JPY
Reasoning: US Unemployment Data and Non-Farm Payrolls
Entry: Bull: 150.44 Bear: 149.95
Price is trading around 150.2 about 5 minutes out from release. If it comes in negative, we still need to contend with the psychological 150 level, so entry is just below that in the hopes we break through and keep going down. If it comes in positive then looking at entry up around the PP for the day, and where the price has been sitting most of today.
Stop: Bull: 150.24 (-20 pips) Bear: 150.15 (20 pips)
These are basically levels that would invalidate the trade. On the bear side a solid move back up above the 150 line, and on the bull side a drop down towards where the price started.
Lot Size/Risk: 1.6% of Account
Still trying to find out what’s a good level for these straddles, since placing two trades with high lots eats up a lot of my margin. Also there is always a chance of a whipsaw and losing on both. Playing it a bit safe here.
Target Price: Bull: 150.74 (30 pips) Bear: 149.65 (-30 pips)
Bear price is just below the daily S1, I figure after nearly bouncing off a S1 in my last trade, I probably should be a bit more careful of those levels, at least in the USD/JPY and around the 150 level. And Bull was just the same distance as Bear basically.
This was kind of funny, since the trade finished as I was writing up the above post
Report came in negative, so bear candle straight away. And TP was hit within a minute. +30 pips.
Some observations… my assumption around S1 was mostly correct, the price pushed slightly past it, and then bounced up slightly, but at the time of writing it’s pushing below it again and is trading around 149.52. So I could have potentially been more aggressive with my TP and aimed for 40 points, but I’m also wary about the price punching through both 150 and 149.50 levels in one move. It’s possible (and it still might), but for news releases like this, I’m happy getting my quick pips in. If it ends up being a strong sustained move, I can look at re-entering a trade after TP is hit. Not going to do that this evening, it’s late, and I’m happy ending the week on a high note.
Running Summary:
Pips Profit: 213.7
Pips Lost: 30
Winning Trades: 7
Losing Trades: 2
Average Pips Won: 30.52
Average Pips Lost: 15